The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (11 January)

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1:02 a.m. As we get some downtime, it looks like Israeli action is hovering between a show of force before stopping in place, declaring "victory", and pressing ahead into the cities. I still think the decision will hinge on what Tel Aviv gets out of its bilateral talks with Egypt tomorrow --- an Egyptian commitment to patrol the borders and possibly southern Gaza is enough to satisfy Israel that it has achieved some of its objective, an Egyptian rejection is likely to spur Tel Aviv to a more aggressive display of force.

1 a.m. Talks in Cairo today (unsurprisingly) "inconclusive".

Israeli navy has fired about 25 shells into Gaza City in last hour. Aerial bombardment continues. Gazan death toll now 890

12:25 a.m. Now here's a story I haven't seen anyone report. From an Israeli human rights website:

In a hearing on two court petitions submitted by human rights groups in Israel, the High Court [on Friday] ordered the state to explain the delay in permitting evacuation of wounded persons in Gaza and the reason for barring electricity supply for Gaza's crumbling infrastructure.

The Government has been given until Tuesday to provide the explanation.

12 midnight: We've posted a separate special analysis pausing and reflecting on Israel's next move.



9:55 p.m. Al Jazeera offers clarification on the Israeli reservist story:

"I can confirm that a few reserve units have entered Gaza to participate in the operation," [said] major Avital Leibovich, an Israeli military spokeswoman. "We are not talking about a massive amount of forces, rather a limited one to join in the fighting."

Al Jazeera's interpretation, which I think is correct, is that Israel is covering all bases with this move.

9:25 p.m. At least 17 rockets hit southern Israel on Sunday.

9 p.m. Some confusion over the report of Israeli reservists going into #Gaza --- apparently Israeli military spokeswoman Major Amital Liebovich is now saying it is only a response to a "flare-up". No major television network running the story.

8:25 p.m. Beyond Gaza: we've posted an analysis of Barack Obama's apparent shift from immediate closure of Guantanamo Bay detention camp.

8:22 p.m. Israeli chief military spokesman says some units of reservists ordered into Gaza Strip; thousands awaiting orders to move.

8:20 p.m. "Gazamom" reports two Israeli F-16s drop bombs on Gazan Ministry of Education.

8:13 p.m. Breaking ranks? Publicly, at least: King Abdullah of Jordan has distanced himself from the US-Israel position and the Mubarak-Sarkozy process, arguing for world to "force" Israel to observe the United Nations cease-fire resolution.

6:50 p.m. Israeli Government needs to get its story straight. It has briefed media all day that Hamas was a broken force, with fighting fleeing. However, the head of Israeli military intelligence, Major General Amos Yadlin told the Israeli Cabinet that, while "there were cracks in Hamas resilience", the organisation "was not about to succumb, and was still capable of striking Israel and the Israeli Defense Force".

Even worse for Israeli "information", someone passed Yadlin's briefing to The Jerusalem Post. So the illusion of an overwhelming Israeli victory, for the moment, has been suspended.

6:30 p.m. Still no word on any change in Israeli policy.

Rockets still landing in southern Israel, the latest in Ashdod.

5:30 p.m. Al Jazeera: Doctors in Gaza say "people have been admitted suffering burns consistent with the use of...white phosphorus". A resident in Jabaliya reports, "It's suffocating and has a deadly poisonous smell that I am sure will cause a lot of sickness and disease on all of the civilians here."

5:25 p.m. Israel claims its troops came under fire from Syrian forces in the Golan Heights.

4:35 p.m. Following up on the Zeitoun mass killing: if you haven't seen it, the reportage by Taghreed El-Khodary and Isabel Kershner in yesterday's New York Times is a stunning exposure of the atrocity that took place last week, killing about 30 members of the al-Samouni clan and dozens of others in the vicinity:

“I could feel the blood dripping inside my head,” Ahmed said, recalling the days he lay wounded in the bombed-out building. “My father was crawling — he couldn’t move his legs,” he said. His cousin Abdallah, 10, was trying to stand up but kept falling down; his brother Yaqoub, 12, kept removing large pieces of shrapnel from his own stomach; and his sister Amal, 9, was not moving at all. Another brother, Ishaq, 12, was wounded in the legs. He bled for two days before he died.

No wonder that this has "horrified many" since the Red Cross, four days after the Israeli shelling, finally got to the dead and wounded. And no wonder that at least one UN official was moved by this to call for a war crimes investigation.

The reaction of the Israeli military spokeswoman: the army had “no intention of harming civilians".

4:30 p.m. Return from a break to find a quiet period in coverage. No news from Cairo of any "diplomatic efforts" and no significant report of military activity.

2:25 p.m. Israel's next step? CNN finally has a summary recapping what we have updated all morning.

2:20 p.m. From the live feed in Gaza City: "Apaches launching hellfires above Gaza city in support of infantry engagement on the ground. Extremely heavy artillery fire also visible. Israeli drones are also overhead, some low enough to be seen on live feed."

1:50 p.m. Heavy fighting in Jabaliya despite supposed "respite".

1:30 p.m. This from a colleague on Twitter as he watches the live feed from Gaza City: "Watching new strikes in Gaza. BBC reports fighting in the 'outskirts'. 4,000 people per square kilometer, WTF does 'outskirts' mean?"

1:10 p.m. Three rockets land in southern Israel in last hour.

1 p.m. Explosions continue outside Gaza Strip as uncertainty persists over Israel's next move. However, military operations will persist at least until Israel Defense Ministry representative holds talks in Cairo, either today or tomorrow.

12:30 p.m. Something's up but I can't quite figure it out. Israeli media and networks are spreading the story that Hamas has taken heavy losses and, in some cases, "thrown in the towel" and fleeing. This seems to be a set-up for two diverse alternatives: declaring "victory" and limiting operations or, conversely, escalating with push into cities.

Meanwhile, the "respite" hasn't stopped Israeli artillery attacks.

12 noon: A bit of a lull, possibly because of Israeli concerns over further operations, indecision, or even a diplomatic resolution that we don't know about (see earlier post on the scheme to get strengthened Egyptian presence in Gaza). Israeli tanks are reportedly pulling back a bit toward Netzarim, and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says before Cabinet meeting, "Israel may be close to achieving its goals."

Today's three- hour "respite" has started. Still, the humanitarian crisis is worsening. Gazan death toll is now 875

10:35 a.m. An interesting post in The Jerusalem Post that "the Israeli Defense Force will likely expand its operations". Plan is being supported by psychological warfare, including assertions of more than 300 Hamas fighters killed and "entire battalions wiped out".

The twist is that the reason given is "to press Egypt to declare its readiness to stop the weapons smuggling from the Sinai Peninsula into Gaza". That indicates Israel is seeking an expanded Egyptian military presence on the Egypt-Gaza border and possibly in southern Gaza. Israeli Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad, is travelling to Cairo on Monday for discussions.

Morning update (10:15 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The ground offensive is turning out not to be a dramatic charge but a gradual, step-by-step advance to the edge of cities. Israeli forces and Hamas fighters clashed north and east of Gaza City overnight.

In southern Gaza near Khan Yunis, one civilian was killed and 49 severely burned when Israeli shelling set several building on fire, including a United Nations school. In Jabaliya, nine members of the same family were killed by an Israeli shell.

Demonstrations took place throughout Europe on Saturday. The largest was in London, while others protested in Newcastle, Edinburgh, Milan, Innsbruck, Paris, Berlin, and Oslo. At least 3000 demonstrators gathered in Lafayette Park outside the White House in Washington.

More than 850 Gazans have been killed since the start of the conflict 15 days ago. Twenty rockets were fired into southern Israel on Saturday, injuring four Israelis.