Monday
Jul062009
The Latest from Iran (6 July): Covered in Dust
Monday, July 6, 2009 at 22:45
The Latest from Iran (7 July): Sitting Out a Storm
UPDATED Iran: Solving the Mystery of The “Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qom”
UPDATED Iran: Joe Biden’s “Green Light” and an Israeli Airstrike
The Latest From Iran (5 July): Treading Water
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2145 GMT: The death toll in Tehran may be far higher than official figures suggest. Fintan Dunne has posted this English rewrite of an article in Le Figaro:
1700 GMT: An Iranian website is reporting on a meeting that Mir Hossein Mousavi held with "friends and acquaintances" on the occassion of Imam Ali's birthday. Mousavi said that the election had shown the problems of the Iranian system and repeated that the State faced questions over its legitimacy at home and abroad. He declared, on the issue of protest, "The movement will continue," but this would be within a legal framework.
1635 GMT: The Regime Wins One? Mehr News Agency reports that the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, has finally congratulated President Ahmadinejad on his "victory". Larijani had caused some friction for the post-election procession with his querying of the neutrality of the Guardian Council and his demand for an enquiry into the raids on the dormitories of Tehran University. (hat tip to Nico Pitney)
1555 GMT: But here's the real significance of the Khamenei statement: yes, there is an fight going on within the rgime. According to Press TV, Khamenei "pointed to the internal disagreement among Iranian officials", although he then "explained that despite such disputes these officials stand united against the enemy". That's the point to remember amidst his bluster, "In the event of enemy intervention, the Iranian nation, despite differences of opinion, will unite and become an iron fist against them."
1550 GMT: Look! Over There! The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has again brought out the foreign menace. Speaking on Monday, he warned Western countries against "meddling" in Iran's internal affairs: ""Such governments should be careful with their hostile approach and remarks. The Iranian nation will react." Khamenei also referred to protesters as a "depressed" and "distressed" minority.
1545 GMT: Expect a standstill in developments tomorrow. Confirmation that Tehran will be "shut down" for 24 hours tomorrow because of dust pollution.
1515 GMT: The LA Times is carrying confirmation of Mousavi's apparent decision to launch his own political party (which we reported yesterday).
1300 GMT: Another Lemming Jumps. The Wall Street Journal runs with Sunday's inaccurate and misleading New York Times story, plus a lot of general background, to try and catch attention with a Clerics v. The Regime story.
1240 GMT: Rumour of the day: a significant portion of the Revolutionary Guard have turned against the Supreme Leader. Twitter user MikVerbrugge claims the source of this information is an Iranian officer they are in contact with.
1230 GMT: Another British embassy worker has been freed, leaving one member of staff still in detention.
0920 GMT: And a nice reminder of the political tension behind the scenes. The German service Deutsche Welle reports that Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a staunch supporter of President Ahmadinejad, sent a stern letter to the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, warning him to "obey" the Supreme Leader.
0915 GMT: Press TV's website also features the comment of police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam that "two-thirds" of those arrested in post-election conflicts had been freed or released on bail. The missing detail? Neither the police chief nor Press TV mention how many people were detained.
0845 GMT: Last night we began received reports of a large duststorm moving across Iran from the west, reaching Tehran today.
That's an apt metaphor for the current political situation. There's been an uneasy settling of conflict over the last few days but the sense that, even though public activity was reduced, there could soon be another clash. Ironically, even though there is almost no breaking news coming out of Tehran, that sense is heightened this morning.
On the clerical front, there is enough intrigue to fill several crises. That intrigue has been elevated (and, indeed, exaggerated) by Sunday's misleading New York Times story of a dramatic challenge to the Supreme Leader from Iran's "most important" clerical faction, the "Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom".. We've sorted out fact from fiction in a separate post.
On the political front, both the regime and the opposition are manoeuvring ahead of the planned demonstration on Thursday. Protest will continue today, "Father's Day" in Iran, as relatives of detainees gather in front of Evin Prison. On the other side, the Islamic Revolution's Guard Corps (Revolutionary Guard) used a Sunday conference to put out warnings. The political head, General Yudollah Javani declared:
The Commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, added, “We are convinced that the IRGC must play a deciding role in the preservation and continuation of the revolution.” (He added that this should in no way be interpreted as “meddling” by the IRGC in politics.)
Iran's Chief of Police, Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam, chipped in with a public statement keeping the foreign menace alive: "The BBC and the British Embassy, spearheaded efforts aimed at provoking unrest and incited people to commit civil disobedience and go on strike." It is still unclear whether any local staffers of the British Embassy will stand trial for "endangering national security".
UPDATED Iran: Solving the Mystery of The “Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qom”
UPDATED Iran: Joe Biden’s “Green Light” and an Israeli Airstrike
The Latest From Iran (5 July): Treading Water
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
2145 GMT: The death toll in Tehran may be far higher than official figures suggest. Fintan Dunne has posted this English rewrite of an article in Le Figaro:
One of a pair of Iranian doctors, who fled the capital to France says an unofficial tally by medical staff at Tehran area hospitals counted 92 violent deaths related to conflicts with security forces. The death toll is considerably at variance with an official figure of 17 deaths.
1700 GMT: An Iranian website is reporting on a meeting that Mir Hossein Mousavi held with "friends and acquaintances" on the occassion of Imam Ali's birthday. Mousavi said that the election had shown the problems of the Iranian system and repeated that the State faced questions over its legitimacy at home and abroad. He declared, on the issue of protest, "The movement will continue," but this would be within a legal framework.
1635 GMT: The Regime Wins One? Mehr News Agency reports that the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, has finally congratulated President Ahmadinejad on his "victory". Larijani had caused some friction for the post-election procession with his querying of the neutrality of the Guardian Council and his demand for an enquiry into the raids on the dormitories of Tehran University. (hat tip to Nico Pitney)
1555 GMT: But here's the real significance of the Khamenei statement: yes, there is an fight going on within the rgime. According to Press TV, Khamenei "pointed to the internal disagreement among Iranian officials", although he then "explained that despite such disputes these officials stand united against the enemy". That's the point to remember amidst his bluster, "In the event of enemy intervention, the Iranian nation, despite differences of opinion, will unite and become an iron fist against them."
1550 GMT: Look! Over There! The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has again brought out the foreign menace. Speaking on Monday, he warned Western countries against "meddling" in Iran's internal affairs: ""Such governments should be careful with their hostile approach and remarks. The Iranian nation will react." Khamenei also referred to protesters as a "depressed" and "distressed" minority.
1545 GMT: Expect a standstill in developments tomorrow. Confirmation that Tehran will be "shut down" for 24 hours tomorrow because of dust pollution.
1515 GMT: The LA Times is carrying confirmation of Mousavi's apparent decision to launch his own political party (which we reported yesterday).
1300 GMT: Another Lemming Jumps. The Wall Street Journal runs with Sunday's inaccurate and misleading New York Times story, plus a lot of general background, to try and catch attention with a Clerics v. The Regime story.
1240 GMT: Rumour of the day: a significant portion of the Revolutionary Guard have turned against the Supreme Leader. Twitter user MikVerbrugge claims the source of this information is an Iranian officer they are in contact with.
1230 GMT: Another British embassy worker has been freed, leaving one member of staff still in detention.
0920 GMT: And a nice reminder of the political tension behind the scenes. The German service Deutsche Welle reports that Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a staunch supporter of President Ahmadinejad, sent a stern letter to the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, warning him to "obey" the Supreme Leader.
0915 GMT: Press TV's website also features the comment of police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam that "two-thirds" of those arrested in post-election conflicts had been freed or released on bail. The missing detail? Neither the police chief nor Press TV mention how many people were detained.
0845 GMT: Last night we began received reports of a large duststorm moving across Iran from the west, reaching Tehran today.
That's an apt metaphor for the current political situation. There's been an uneasy settling of conflict over the last few days but the sense that, even though public activity was reduced, there could soon be another clash. Ironically, even though there is almost no breaking news coming out of Tehran, that sense is heightened this morning.
On the clerical front, there is enough intrigue to fill several crises. That intrigue has been elevated (and, indeed, exaggerated) by Sunday's misleading New York Times story of a dramatic challenge to the Supreme Leader from Iran's "most important" clerical faction, the "Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom".. We've sorted out fact from fiction in a separate post.
On the political front, both the regime and the opposition are manoeuvring ahead of the planned demonstration on Thursday. Protest will continue today, "Father's Day" in Iran, as relatives of detainees gather in front of Evin Prison. On the other side, the Islamic Revolution's Guard Corps (Revolutionary Guard) used a Sunday conference to put out warnings. The political head, General Yudollah Javani declared:
Today, no one is impartial. There are two currents; those who defend and support the revolution and the establishment, and those who are trying to topple it. Those who wanted to topple the revolution made a mistake in their calculations. They had ignored the awareness of the people and the role of the Leader.
The Commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, added, “We are convinced that the IRGC must play a deciding role in the preservation and continuation of the revolution.” (He added that this should in no way be interpreted as “meddling” by the IRGC in politics.)
Iran's Chief of Police, Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam, chipped in with a public statement keeping the foreign menace alive: "The BBC and the British Embassy, spearheaded efforts aimed at provoking unrest and incited people to commit civil disobedience and go on strike." It is still unclear whether any local staffers of the British Embassy will stand trial for "endangering national security".
tagged Ali Larijani, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, British embassy, Deutsche Welle, Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam, Fintan Dunne, Guardian Council, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Le Figaro, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehr News Agency, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, Press TV, Revolutionary Guard, Wall Street Journal, Yudollah Javani in Middle East & Iran
Ali Larijani, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, British embassy, Deutsche Welle, Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam, Fintan Dunne, Guardian Council, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Le Figaro, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehr News Agency, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, Press TV, Revolutionary Guard, Wall Street Journal, Yudollah Javani in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (10)
"The missing detail? Neither the police chief nor Press TV mention how many people were detained". In a prevoius statement Ahmadi-moqaddam said that 1032 people were detained in the aftermath of th election.
m.s.,
I apologise --- I now recall the police chief's claim of 1032. That was a few days ago, and there have been subsequent detentions.
S.
Dear sir,
For a time now I've been following your updates with great interest. I must add though that IRGC stands for Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and not Islamic Republican Guards Corps (Republican Guard was Iraqi).
Sincerely,
A.
On the Revolutionary Guards, I see you are following rumors about divisions inside them. So am I. See http://www.qlineorientalist.com/IranRises?p=68
A.,
Thank you so much. It is an embarrassing mistake, and we will try not to repeat it!
S.
Evan,
Thanks --- I'm pleased to make contact, as I've learned about your website. Please stay in touch. We have not been able to verify any of the rumours about IRGC resignations/turnings against the regime, but they are persisting.
S.
By their very nature, confirming these things is almost impossible. We have to keep tracking the rumors--and debunking them when we can.
Hi there,
Just discovered your blog a few days ago and have been following it religiously. I did want to point on one small issue with the reports you have posted regarding Larijani today. First, (my Farsi may be rusty) but I'm pretty sure that Yazdi wasn't the one to send the letter to Larijani -- it looks like it came from his disciple Qasem Ravanbagsh. Second, the second hand summary of the original Mehr News Report you cite (also cited by Pitney) on Larijani's decision to congratulate Ahmadinejad is weak proof at best (if you have the original Mehr News Report please post a link)--- it explicitly says that the meeting took place behind closed doors but provides no source for the claim that Larijani threw his support behind Ahamdinejad during the visit.
For more, please see:
http://keepingthechange.blogspot.com/2009/07/disciple-of-ayatollah-yazdi-urges.html
Thanks for all your hard work!
No one knows if there has been any words of congratulation because the meeting was held behind doors, and by the way I couldn't find the news of the meeting on Mehr while there are many other sources that have cited Mehr, interesting!
KTC/m.s.,
Just catching up from Dublin. Thank you for this very useful information. Having read the blog and also failed to track down a first-hand source for the "congratulations", I agree that the significance is in manoeuvres (and "spinning" the story), rather than the supposed message from Larijani.
One to keep watching,
S.