The Latest from Iran (23 July): Receding Authority

1130 GMT: New Media Nonsense. A quick note to The International Herald Tribune: if  you are going to shell out money for a guest columnist to discuss the political effects of new media in the Middle East and Iran, you might to go to someone who is actually involved with those new media. Otherwise you get declarations like this:

We must face the fact that all the new media and hundreds of thousands of young bloggers from Morocco to Iran have not triggered a single significant or lasting change in Arab or Iranian political culture. Not a single one. Zero.

(I should add that I am a great admirer of Rami Khouri, who wrote the column. To my knowledge, however, his primary connection with the subject on which he is pronouncing is as an observer of "Millions of young people communicate with each other digitally, express their views and identities, and sometimes mobilize for causes as disparate as promoting a new movie, arranging a dance party, sharing photos or bemoaning a tired old dictator".)

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Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader & the Disappearing Fatwa (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (22 July): Confusing Regime

1030 GMT: Talking Tough. Minister of Commerce Mehdi Ghazanfari has warned against any plan for the inspection of the country's cargo ships: "Iran reserves the right to respond to inspections as any such attempts will be a move beyond the sanctions resolution."

0855 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Press TV, drawing from Mehr News, reports:

Iran ranks sixth among the world's countries based on inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) performance, the latest report released by a UN agency shows.

New data released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) show that Iran attracted more than $3 billion of direct investment from abroad in 2009, which is twice the amount of the previous year. This is despite the fact that global FDI inflows dropped during 2009 as compared to the previous year.

The UNCTAD ranking is for the year 2009, the most recent year available, and examines the economies of 141 economies.

The link to the "Country Fact Sheet" for the report is currently broken. Other reports have indicated that foreign direct investment into Iran has plummeted in recent months.

0605 GMT: Declaration of the Day. Meeting the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah on Thursday, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pronounced, "All the injustices and brutalities in the world today will soon be eradicated with the awakening of all nations."

No comment.

0530 GMT: Three days after it started, the affair of the Supreme Leader's "disappearing" fatwa is still inconclusive. There has no been explanation for why his declaration --- "I am the Rule of the Prophet" --- suddenly showed up and was then withdrawn from most of the official Iranian media.

Mr Verde has done an excellent job at rounding up the political and religious possibilities, none of which are promising for Ayatollah Khamenei's authority. I will go a step further: amidst all the challenges within the Iranian system, the confusion points to two aspects:

1. The Supreme Leader wanted to bring senior clerics, many of whom have been disquieted by the growing conflict amongst "the establishment", in line by asserting his leadership. The fatwa was the wrong move, however: far from reassuring the clerics of Khamenei's authority, it soon provoked more concern. So it had to be pulled back.

And/or...

2. There is a rift even within Khamenei's inner circle. One group pushed this initiative --- likely with Khamenei's assent, but possibly going farther than the Supreme Leader might have expected --- another pushed back.

Speculative, I know. So maybe it's best to start by saying that the outcome of this week is not clarity but confusion. And, as Mr Verde has driven home, it is not strength but weakness.

Meanwhile....

The Universities Fight

In another pointer to the challenges for and possibly to the Supreme Leader, conservative politician Morteza Nabavi has said that Khamenei has left the resolution of the conflict over Islamic Azad University to the judiciary.

Political Prisoner Watch

Zahra Rahnavard, activist and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, http://www.rahesabz.net/story/20011/ of labour activist Mansur Osanloo, who has been detained for three years.

The "Discussions with the US" Diversion

The curious episode of Iran's claims that it has been approached by Washington for talks --- revelation or propaganda? --- trundles on. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has said there should be no preconditions on discussions.

Trouble with the Water

The Governor of Tehran Province, Morteza Tamaddon, has insisted that the Minister of Health is responsible for the problems with the capital's polluted water supply.

The Latest from Iran (18 July): Bazaar Resolutions?

2030 GMT: Bazaar Shutdowns. A different type of bazaar closing today, as the stalls of Sunni vendors in Zahedan --- site of last Thursday's suicide bombings --- were attacked by plainclothes assailants.

2013 GMT: "Nobody Watches Our TV" Shocker. Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, has noted the difficulty in preventing access to programmes through satellites and then complained, “The current situation is not so much in our favour. Our [TV] productions do not have any viewers. They are not attractive enough. It is just like our soccer. Our soccer team is ranked 70th in the world just like our cultural, TV, and film productions.”

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The Latest from Iran (17 July): Back to “Normal”?

2010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Students and lawyers Zoubin Nasiri, Kazem Taghdiri, and Ali Tahami have been detained for three weeks.

2000 GMT: A Message to the Clergy. Gholam Reza Mesbahi Moghaddam, of the Association of Combatant Clergy, has said that those establishing "jame'eye voaz velayi" (clergy supporting the Supreme Leader) should stop creating division. Mesbahi Moghaddam said he did not accept the new organisation and warned that clergy should not act as a political party.

1940 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Observers are trying to get to grips with the significance of the last 12 days of closings and conflicts in Iran's bazaars. Even the Los Angeles Times attempts an interpretation, but the most interesting reading comes from Rah-e-Sabz, which assesses whether the bazaaris or the "conservative" Motalefeh Party --- historically a key force in the bazaars --- has been the driving force behind the revolt against the Government's proposed 70% business tax increase.

1910 GMT: Parliament v. President. Members of Parliament told Minister of Trade Mehdi Ghazanfari that "he is lying in their faces" when he said that agricultural exports are higher than imports. Ghazanfari received a negative vote and is one step closer to impeachment.

MPs claimed that a "mafia" of 3 or 4 people are responsible for fruit imports and noted that even Iran's prayer cloths come from China.

1855 GMT: Ali Asghari, the Parliamentary advisor from Iran's Strategic Center, has warned that the country cannot be governed by one faction behaving like a clan. Asghari says cooperation of hardliners and reformists is necessary to overcome the crisis.

1850 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Labour activist Mansur Osanloo, whose family was visited by Mehdi Karroubi this weekend (see 1535 GMT), has again been charged with propaganda against the system.

1844 GMT: Guardian Council Manoeuvres. We reported earlier this week that the appointment of three of the six "legal" representatives on the 12-member Guardian Council was going to be a setback for "hardliners" and President Ahmadinejad, with their favourites --- including current member Gholam-Hossein Elham not on the shortlist.

The three appointments have now been made, with Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, Mohammad Salimi, and Siamak Rahpeyk taking their seats. Still, there are rumblings: MP and Government foe Ahmad Tavakoli complaining that the process was too hasty.

1840 GMT: Musical Shutdown. Reports indicate that all concerts of the National Orchestra have been cancelled for a year.

1800 GMT: Mahmoud Stays on Script. Asked about Thursday's suicide bombings in Zahedan, President Ahmadinejad pulled out all the phrases for the Islamic Republic News Agency:

"No grouping other than US-backed terrorist groups which are devoid of human feelings can commit such acts....We are friends with the Pakistani nation,…but the Pakistani government should be held accountable....The puppeteers pulling the strings in this show will get nothing....Such aggressive policies will only fuel public hatred."

The only interesting twist in that script is Ahmadinejad's reference to Pakistan: is he really threatening a strain in relations --- note the remarks of a leading MP earlier today that Iran might send troops into Pakistan to chase terrorists (see 1520 GMT) --- or is this a bit of posturing?

1550 GMT: After the Bombing. A third member of Parliament, Hossein Ali Shahriari, has resigned over security issues following last Thursday's suicide bombings in Sistan and Baluchistan Province.

1540 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims that Layla Tavassoli has been sentenced to two years in prison for participation in demonstrations and for an interview with Radio Farda and BBC Persian.

RAHANA claims that detained women's rights activist Mahboubeh Karami has been denied surgery on her nose.

1535 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Visiting the family of detained labour activist Mansur Osanloo, Mehdi Karroubi recalled:

At the time when we started our resistance and Imam [Khomeini] started his campaign, the foundations of the revolution was based on this principle that no one would suffer from oppression. The barbaric practices that now are being committed against individuals and their families is an oppression against the people that even the Shah’s regime, with all its corruption, would not have committed. I, as a member of this system, am ashamed, but I don’t see these treatments as part of Imam [Khomeini]’s path and Islam.

Osanloo's daughter-in-law was allegedly kidnapped and beaten in June.

Karroubi expressed the hope that all political prisoners would be freed and offered condolences to those mourning the loss of loved ones after last Thursday's bombings in Sistan and Baluchistan Province.

1520 GMT: Foreign Poses. The head of Parliament's National Security Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, is putting out a lot of wisdom today. After meeting the Swiss ambassador, who represents American interests, Boroujerdi claimed that the US Congress has informed the Swiss envoy that it is ready to hold negotiations with Iran. Boroujerdi responded, "[When] the US is aiding terrorists and caused the Zahedan incident and imposed unilateral sanctions beyond [the UN Security Council] resolution, how can it expect [us] to negotiate?"

(Mr Boroujerdi, please do get in touch with us and let us know which US Congressmen have been talking to you of this hope for discussions --- because we haven't seen any sign of this back-channel being established.)

Boroujerdi also raised the possibility of sending Iranian forces into Pakistan to fight "terrorism".

1525 GMT: Fashion Police. Back from a break to find that Iran Prosecutor General Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei has called for tighter enforcement of the criminal code against dangerous fashion: "Unfortunately the law ... which considers violation of the Islamic dress code as a punishable crime, has not been implemented in the country in the past 15 years. Under the law, violators of public chastity should be punished by being sentenced to up to two months in jail or 74 lashes."

But has Mohseni-Ejei talked to the President about this? After all, it was only a few weeks ago that Ahmadinejad was warning against the excesses of the "morality police".

0930 GMT: Defiance. The Parliament has passed a  bill mandating the pursuit of 20% enrichment of uranium. The legislation now needs approval by the Guardian Council.

The bill also requires Iran to "retaliate" against the inspection of Iranian ships and any refusal of fuel to Iranian planes at international airports.

0920 GMT: Energy Watch (Revolutionary Guard Edition). Rooz Online claims that the supposed withdrawal of companies linked to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps from gas projects in the South Pars field is actually a deception. Trying to avoid Western sanctions, the IRGC has merely changed the name of the company involved in the project, retaining the head.

0750 GMT: Sunday Diversions. In the Sydney Morning Herald, Michelle Wranik writes of a two-day visit to Isfahan in which she "is charmed --- and perpetually delayed --- by the kindness of Iranians."

And we bring news from a different front with a look at Iran's latest guidance, "Good, Good Lovin' (But Only at Night)".

0650 GMT: Doing It for the Young People. Reformist MP Darius Ghanbari notes that the budget of Iran's National Youth Organisation has tripled to $39 million, but claims that the Government abuses this for propaganda festivals instead of supporting youth over problems such as unemployment, unstable marriages, and depression.

Meanwhile Minister of Science and Higher Education Kamran Daneshjoo says his ministry wants to return students to Iran by creating job opportunities.

0630 GMT: We start this morning at the Tehran Bazaar where --- after a day of conflicting reports --- it appears that business is back "as usual". Mehr News publishes a set of photographs showing open stalls and the bustle of shoppers:



Yet even this apparent settlement, with the compromise of a 15% business tax increase --- the Government had tried to impose 70% --- has its far-from-resolved aspects. There is the longer-term economic issue, with the Government now receiving only about $4.5 billion of the $20 billion it had hoped to reap from the measure, and then there's the lingering presence of what it takes to get the "normal" in Iran. Note our emphasis in the following paragraph from the Los Angeles Times:

"Every year we used to manage to convince the tax office to pay a 7% increase compared to the previous year," said one wholesaler in the fabric market, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal by security forces keeping a close tab on merchants. "Now it's 15%. It seems like the tax office is the winner."

And then there's the other fronts....

The Aftermath of the Bombing

While the regime puts out the rat-a-tat-tat of "foreign involvement" in Thursday's suicide bombings in Sistan and Baluchistan Province in southeastern Iran, one of the two members of Parliaments who resigned over the event, Abbas Ali Noura, puts a  far different question: "Does the blood of Sistan and Baluchistan people have less colour than that of people in Burkina Faso [in Africa]?"

Parliament v. President

Reformist MP Hossein Kashefi, with a bit of coding, puts in this jab --- published in the far-from-reformist Aftab News --- at the Government on behalf of the people, "One party corresponds in no way with Imam [Khomeini]'s views; we shouldn't present him as someone who didn't accept democratic bases [for the Islamic Republic]."