Iran Special: The Regime Disappoints, So It's Over to the Opposition

The big news from Iran this morning is that there is very little news.

Almost 24 hours ago, President Ahmadinejad was taking the platform at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine to speak to the audience at Tehran Friday Prayers. Soon after that, the Supreme Leader --- in his first Friday Prayer sermon in more than 11 months --- denounced Israel and the US and threatened the opposition with "annihilation".

Almost 24 hours later and, apart from whipping up the die-hard supporters in the shrine's courtyard, there is little left of the speeches. Press TV is back on the Gaza story --- indeed, most of their coverage of the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei addresses was about Israel-Palestine rather than Iran --- and even Fars has "disappeared" the Friday Prayers from the front page of its website. (It should be noted that the Islamic Republic News Agency continues to elevate the story, with the full text of the Supreme Leader's address heading its page.)



Now for a bit of irony. If there is a legacy from yesterday, it is a Khomeini legacy. However, it's not just the fact that Ahmadinejad and Khamenei were basing their appeals on the commemoration of the 21st anniversary of the death of  Ayatollah Khomeini.

When part of the crowd shouted down Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Ayatollah, I have to wonder how the "common man/woman" in Iran views the incident. After all, the regime based much of its anti-opposition line last autumn on the supposed desecration of Ayatollah Khomeini's picture in Green Movement protests.

So what now when Hassan Khomeini has been publicly humiliated at the occasion for his grandfather? The regime will probably try to "forget" the episode, but the rapidly-circulating video --- with a shocked and saddened Hassan Khomeini pleading with the hecklers, then resigning himself to defeat by "the minority" --- is unlikely to fade away.

And if there is significance in this most visible of incidents, so there is significance in the invisible. Where were the politicians, the officials, the clerics for President Ahmadinejad? State media's standard shot, panning the VIP section to show the faithful, backfired yesterday when it became clear that, with the exception of Revolutionary Guard Mohammad Ali Jafari, there were no regime stars (and, of course, no reformists) to be spotted.

None of this necessarily means "defeat" for the Government, let alone the Supreme Leader. But it does mean that, with the lack of visible "victory" in the sense of public acclamation rather than the cudgel of political, legal, and "security" forces, the space for challenge remains.

So on to 22 Khordaad (12 June), the first anniversary of the election, and over to the opposition. Can any public declaration be made or are we left with the vacuum of a regime that cannot confirm its legitimacy and an opposition that cannot publicly demonstrate its demands?

Comments

[wdavit]

As I have been saying all along the regime has lost its religion. Ironically they are actually killing themselves ever so slowly because they base so much of their legitimacy on piety. Of course we all know this piety is a lie because they would not have so grossly violated the human rights of thousands to stay in power is they were truly pious. Instead the use religion to coerce and intimidate to stay in power.