Pakistan: A Political Deal for a New Coalition?

Related Post: Chief Justice Chaudhry Reinstated; What Next for Zardari?

Update (23 March): President Zardari has responded to the political manoeuvres with his own call for reconciliation. In an address on Pakistan Day, he asked "everyone to work in the spirit of tolerance, mutual accommodation and respect for dissent and invite everyone to participate in the national effort for ... reconciliation and healing the wounds".

I'm not sure if this development will be noticed in the British and American press, but it could be the sign of a political arrangement for a new coalition Government and the political demise of President Asif Ali Zardari.

The Pakistani newspaper Dawn reports that Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani will meet opposition leader Nawaz Sharif on Sunday with "a message of reconciliation and goodwill". Gilani said that the Pakistan People's Party wanted an arrangement "to strengthen democracy".

Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) responded in kind, saying it has no objection to a coalition government with the PPP in Punjab. Presumably this would include the restoration of Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister of the province.

And the striking absence in the Dawn story? Not a word from President Zardari.

Pakistan: Chief Justice Chaudhry Reinstated; What Next for Zardari?

Related Post: Pakistan - A Political Deal for a New Coalition?

A week after President Asif Ali Zardari gave way to the demands of the Long March,  Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry (pictured) was formally restored to his position in a flag-raising ceremony at his house.

Now the real contest between the Presidency, other political parties, and the courts begins. The easy case will be last month's barring of former President Nawaz Sharif from office and the removal of Sharif's brother, Shahbaz, as chief minister of Punjab. This was always a political, rather than legal, manoeuvre, and the Zardari Government's concession that it will seek a review of the decision indicates the Sharifs will be "legitimate" politicians very soon.

More intriguing will be the Supreme Court's position towards Zardari. The judges installed by Zardari's predecessor, Pervez Musharraf, rubber-stamped an "amnesty" from the corruption charges that had forced Zardari into exile. I suspect that a political deal will trump the law, and the charges will not be reinstated; however, public pressure for a strong, "independent" judiciary may make life troublesome for the President.

Pakistan: Day Three of the Long March

4:30 p.m. GMT: It appears that the Zardari Government is trying to reach a settlement with the Pakistan Muslim League (N) party of Nawaz Sharif by announcing that it would file a review petition in the Supreme Court against the disqualification of Sharif and his brother Shahbaz from public office. The PML (N) is not conceding ground, however, on its demand for the restoration of deposed judges.

1:20 p.m. GMT: Despite roadblocks and detentions under Section 144, smaller groups of protestors are making their way to Lahore. Interior Minister Rehman Malik has announced restrictions on protests in the Pakistani capital, notably no processions or sit-ins on Constitution Avenue in the capital city, while claiming to have discussed alternate venues with Long March organisers. He is also warning of the possibility of a suicide or targeted attack at the venue of the Long March sit-in.

An emergency meeting of the ruling Pakistan People's Party has been called for this evening. Earlier rumours of a possible deal between Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif over a Charter of Democracy seem to have been nipped in the bud by the President: "I am not going to negotiate under pressure. Mr Sharif has to abandon the Long March.”

8:15 a.m. GMT: Pakistani authorities have again prevented Ahmed Ali Kurd, the President of the Bar Association, from reaching Lahore. Two days after his convoy was halted, Kurd and his travelling party were not allowed to board a plane.

7:30 a.m. GMT: The Long March is expected to reach Lahore today. Despite the political manoeuvring yesterday pointing to a possible compromise between President Asif Ali Zardari and his opponents, Government forces moved against demonstrators overnight. The Vice President of the Bar Association, Saeed Akhtar Khan, has been put under house arrest.

Zardari has come under further pressure from within his Government, as Information Minister Sherry Rahman, formerly a close ally of the President, resigned. She is reportedly angry over a Government clamp-down on the media, including the closure of private channel Geo News.

Al Jazeera are also reporting angry exchanges between Zardari and the head of the military, Ashfaq Parvez Kiani.

Mr Obama's War: Pakistan Military, Prime Minister Act Against Zardari

Related Post: The Spin is…It’s Not Afghanistan. It’s Pakistan.

Hours after we asked, "[Is] Washington envisaging a Pakistani military running Islamabad’s policy, either behind the scenes or quite openly after toppling President Zardari?", the Asia Times offers a short-term answer:

Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani (pictured with US General David Petraeus)....met President Asif Ali Zardari for the first time this week --- actually twice --- after returning from Washington, where he had met with senior officials. As a result, a planned crackdown against opposition parties has been shelved.

The newspaper reports that the Punjab Assembly will be reopened; it had been closed after the disqualification of the Chief Minister, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's brother Shahbaz. And, after pressure from Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani, Zardari has given up on a plan for mobile law courts. Opposition parties feared these could be used to punish their activists during protests in forthcoming weeks.

The article continues:

On Thursday, Kiani discussed the situation at a meeting with the corps commanders - the heads of the regional army groups - and shared Washington's concerns about governance in Pakistan....This military intervention - and Gillani getting closer to the army - coincides with a drop in Zardari's popularity within his own Pakistan People's Party, the lead party in the ruling coalition.

So, does this mean Zardari is a dead President walking? This is the provocative conclusion of the report:

Although Kiani has become more active, neither the Americans nor the Pakistan army actually wants to change horses in mid-stream. Yet the country is becoming less and less governable under the present arrangement, and quick action is required.

This does not necessarily mean getting rid of Zardari, but he could well be forced to make further concessions to his political rival, former premier and opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, by giving him a share of power. If Zardari does not do this, the military's hand could be forced.