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« Iran's Uranium: Why Can't the US Take Yes for an Answer? (Parsi) | Main | Iran's Uranium: US Shows a Middle Finger to Tehran...and Turkey and Brazil and... (Gary Sick) »
Wednesday
May192010

Iran's Uranium: Washington "Can't Afford to Look Ridiculous", Makes Ridiculous Move (Emery)

EA's Chris Emery analyses:

The US response reminds me of the scene in The Godfather where the Don’s advisor asks the studio boss to drop his objection to using Jonny Fontaine in his next film. The studio boss admits that, although Jonny would be perfect for the role, he is committed to ruining Fontaine's career. Fontaine had made him look ridiculous, and the studio boss explains, "A man in my position can’t afford to look ridiculous."

NEW Iran’s Uranium: Why Can’t the US Take Yes for an Answer? (Parsi)
Iran’s Uranium: US Shows a Middle Finger to Tehran…and Turkey and Brazil and… (Gary Sick)


The Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement was a good deal, but the US perceived that it would make them look ridiculous. Not just because it undercuts American diplomacy with China and Russia but because the deal resonates of a change in the international system ---- a change that is also a challenge. The US saw the IBT  deal not just as one unlikely to work; they saw it as a threat.


Technically, the deal does not address some concerns stated by the US: it does not include cessation of enrichment and leaves about 600-700 kilogrammes of low-enriched uranium inside Iran. Symbolically, however, this was Tehran saying that it wants a way out. At some point down the line, Iran could have found some handy technical reason for temporarily ending enrichment and decided that it was "cost-effective" to send most of its LEU abroad or to buy in medical isotopes.

But now, through its response, the US has reinforced the cyclical politics of confrontation and capitulation that have driven the crisis in US-Iranian relations for 30 years. Washington needs to recognise that breaking this dynamic is the only starting point for the eventual satisfaction of all its technical and geo-political security concerns.

The sanctions route through the United Nations is actually the worst-case scenario because, although there was not enough in the IBT agreement to get the Chinese and Russians off the hook, there is enough for them to substantially water down sanctions. The outcome will achieve nothing except to anger China, Russia, and all the non-permanent members of the Security Council while bolstering President Ahmadinejad at home and to some extent abroad.

Reader Comments (5)

Chris -

Great analogy to "The Godfather" but I think it may be important to note that, to your statement "..while bolstering President Ahmadinejad at home..", while perhaps true, will be to a very small audience given the broader concerns around arrests, economy, general political environment.....

May 20, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterBijan77

Bijan, agreed- but if you rely on quite a small power base then this is not a problem.

BTW, I sent this to Scott as a private casual comment which included some less than diplomatic language about Brazil and Turkey's reaction. After Scott's judicious edit the false impression is given in the last sentence that China and Russia are non-permanent members of the UNSC. Obviously that's not the case.

Chris

May 20, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterChris E

Thanks for fixing!

May 20, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterChrisE

[...] in the Middle East. Therefore, if the U.S. managed to deal with Iran, that would be ok, but this independent side deal would not be acceptable. A related possibility is that Obama is trying to curb U.S. imperialistic tendencies without giving [...]

[...] in the Middle East. Therefore, if the U.S. managed to deal with Iran, that would be ok, but thisindependent side deal would not be acceptable. A related possibility is that Obama is trying to curb U.S. imperialistic tendencies without giving [...]

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