Friends or Obstacles?: Iran, Human Rights, & US "Concern"

There was a time --- say, six months ago --- when I wrote often about US "experts" who offered analysis and advice on Iran. But, taking the advice of readers, I walked away from those pieces: I found myself getting frustrated and involved in diversionary battles which were more about pundits striking public postures than about the complexity of the issues in Iran.

What matters, not just in the end but from the beginning, is not the pronouncements and priorities of broadcasters and columnists but the hopes, concerns, and fears of Iranians.

Forgive me, but I am going to break the pledge of silence over US commentary for a moment today.

I am prompted to do so not by another one-dimensional portrayal of Iran or by the deceitful words of those invoking sensitivity for the Iranian people to justifying bombing the Iranian people. I do so because of two pieces, by two intelligent and thoughtful writers, which start from the premise that we need to review the approach to Iran.



Writing in Foreign Policy, Stephen Walt criticises "Sleepwalking with Iran":

I can't figure out who is actually directing U.S. policy toward Iran, but what's striking (and depressing) about it is how utterly unimaginative it seems to be....We continue to ramp up sanctions that most people know won't work, and we take steps that are likely to reinforce Iranian suspicions and strengthen the clerical regime's hold on power.

I think Walt is an excellent analyst and, even if you disagree with his position on sanctions and the nuclear issue, his critique of the US Government's tactics is incisively realistic:

The Obama administration's approach to Iran is neither feasible nor consistent. To begin with, our objective --- to persuade Iran to end all nuclear enrichment -- simply isn't achievable. Both the current government and the leaders of the opposition Green Movement are strongly committed to controlling the full nuclear fuel cycle, and the United States will never get the other major powers to impose the sort of "crippling sanctions" it has been seeking for years now. It's not gonna happen folks, or at least not anytime soon.

What got my attention, however --- especially given Walt's normally sure-handed evaluation --- was not the clarity in that paragraph but the resignation and confusiion in one later in the piece:

The first [problem] is the mindset that seems to have taken hold in the Obama administration. As near as I can tell, they believe Iran is dead set on acquiring nuclear weapons and that Iran will lie and cheat and prevaricate long enough to get across the nuclear threshold. Given that assumption, there isn't much point in trying to negotiate any sort of "grand bargain" between Iran and the West, and especially not one that left them with an enrichment capability (even one under strict IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] safeguards). This view may be correct, but if it is, then our effort to ratchet up sanctions is futile and just makes it more likely that other Iranians will blame us for their sufferings....Maybe our focus ought to shift from our current obsession with Iran's nuclear program and focus on human rights issues instead (though it is harder for Washington to do that without looking pretty darn hypocritical).

I think --- although I have to admit that I am trying to put this on paper after reading the above paragraph for the 20th time --- that Walt is saying: well, if we have to put pressure on Iran's nuclear programme and aspirations in the region, let's use rhetoric on human rights rather than sanctions as our weapon of choice.

Wrong. So wrong. I'm all for putting human rights up-front but it should not be picked up as an instrument simply because you don't like other tools in your foreign-policy box. Human rights should be acknowledged as an end, not a means. To do otherwise does not sweep away the hypocrisy that Walt notes, it reinforces the reality as well as the impression of deceit.

Which brings me to the latest intervention of Roger Cohen in The New York Times.

Cohen has been an important US voice on Iran for some time and, to his credit, he has tried to bring the internal situation to the attention of readers, having spent time before and after the 2009 election in the country.

And, to his credit, the starting point of Cohen's latest column is well-intentioned. He highlights and draws from the recent publication of Death to the Dictator!, the account of a protestor detained, abused, and raped by security forces.

Human rights, not just in this story but in thousands of others, not as a rhetorical device but as an important objective. Right?

Not quite. For Cohen uses his story for a personal goal: to set himself up as arbitrator between two viewpoints that he dislikes:

Since June 12, U.S. realists and idealists have had an Iranian field day. The realists have dismissed the Green Movement, proclaimed a stolen election fair, and urged President Obama to toss aside human rights concerns and repair relations with Tehran in the American interest.

The idealists have rained renewed fury on Ahmadinejad, called for his overthrow and urged Obama to bury outreach and back Moussavi.

Leave aside, for the moment, that Cohen's portrayal of "idealists" (not one of whom he names) is a caricature. My experience is that those who have criticised the Iranian Govenrment on "idealistic" grounds, i.e., human rights, have not called for a burial of outreach. To the contrary, if one wants to acknowledge the Iranian people, one has to reach out and establish connections: to learn, to understand, to disseminate information, and to discuss. Some, indeed many, may wish to see the back of President, but they do not necessarily advocate "overthrow" (which Cohen is using to imply military action or US-supported regime change).

Here's my problem, which goes far beyond Cohen's ploy of setting himself up as the centrist voice of reason.

When Cohen declares that we should "pursue engagement because isolation only serves the horror merchants", his "engagement" is --- ironically --- not on human rights concerns. It is a call for a resolution of the nuclear issue: "[Iran's] renewed interest in Brazilian-Turkish mediated talks is worth skeptical consideration".

I respect the position that, whatever our perspective, on the political and legal issues inside Iran, the priority must be on a resolution with the current Iranian Government. I understand the geopolitical reasons: not only taking the destabilising dispute over Iran's nuclear programme off the table but also furthering an accommodation over Afghanistan, Iraq, and regional issues in the Middle East.

What I find objectionable is the justification of that approach through distortion and mis-representation of the situation inside Iran. Now that the authors of Race for Iran, pushing for a "grand settlement" with Tehran, have finally publicly declared that human rights plays no part in their calculations, then let them stick to that position by offering no deceptive comment on developments over those rights.

And I'm just as opposed to using human rights as a sleight-of-hand to push a nuclear-first approach. Just because Roger Cohen, who has raised awareness of the situation in Iran and has a concern for those rights, is the perpetrator in this case does not affect that opposition.

Here is Cohen's concluding sentence in full: "[Iran's] renewed interest in Brazilian-Turkish mediated talks is worth skeptical consideration....if you believe Mohsen [the abused detainee in Death to the Dictator!]--- in the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate --- deserves a future."

I have no idea of Mohsen's position on the Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on uranium enrichment. I doubt Cohen knows. However, I think I have a good idea of what Mohsen, and many others who have suffered in the post-election period, think of the Ahmaidinejad Government. A President and a Government who are using the nuclear game as a distraction from internal issues. A President and a Government which, it must be appreciated, will present any agreement on uranium enrichment as a "victory" for their policy and, thus, as evidence of their legitimacy.

So it is a bit presumptuous for Mr Cohen to use (I would say "manipulate" had this come from a less benevolent commentator like Charles Krauthammer) Mohsen's story not for Moshen's interests but for Roger Cohen's agenda.

It is still deceitful --- irrespective of whoever carries out the act --- to use human rights as his/her instrument of the moment to seek a settlement which is far removed from human rights.

The Latest from Iran (24 May): Rahnavard's Statement, Ahmadinejad Heckled

1910 GMT: Panahi to be Freed? Iranian Students News Agency is reporting a statement from Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi that the decree ordering the release of film director Jafar Panahi from Evin Prison has been signed.

Panahi has not been freed yet, however. Dowlatabadi said he met Panahi last Thursday in jail and agreed to the director's request of freedom before his trial, subject to payment of bail. According to Dowlatabadi, "bureaucratic procedures are now proceeding".

1745 GMT: No Permit, No 12 June March? Readers have picked up on this passage from the English translation of Sunday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi:

[They] decided to invite people to participate in a national rally on theanniversary of the rigged presidential election on 22 Khordaad if permission for holding a rally is issued by the Interior Ministry, but if this constitutional right is denied by Ahmadinejad’s administration, they proposed to peacefully continue promoting awareness through the various and numerous social networks.

I asked an EA correspondent, "Does that mean that, if no permit is given, neither will take to the streets and call out the Green Movement to demonstrate?"

The correspondent's reply:

I take it to read that while they may not march, they will not stand idle if, as expected, the permission is not granted.

We should emphasise that the 12 June rally, if it takes place, is something relatively new, as it is the very first "homegrown" event for the Green wave, i.e., one that does not "piggyback" on an existing regime commemoration event. This is potentially a vulnerability, as it leaves the Green people exposed (everyone out on the streets that day is Green). It is worth nothing that Kalemeh indicates that Mousavi and Karroubi have also discussed events pertaining to the June 15 anniversary of the mass rally and the June 20 commemoration too. All this means that these days shall be an important litmus test for everyone, the regime and the Greens.

NEW Iran Document: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (23 May)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Heckled During Speech (24 May)
Iran Document: Khatami “Khordaad is the Month of the People”(22 May)
The Latest from Iran (23 May): Is This The People’s Month?

1650 GMT: The Iran Uranium Letter. Reuters has posted the text of Iran's formal note, based on the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on a uranium fuel swap, to the International Atomic Energy Agency. An extract:

The nuclear fuel exchange is a starting point to begin cooperation and a positive constructive move forward among nations. Such a move should lead to positive interaction and cooperation in the field of peaceful nuclear activities, replacing and avoiding all kinds of confrontation through refraining from measures, actions and rhetorical statements that would jeopardize Iran's rights and obligations under the NPT.

Based on the above, in order to facilitate the nuclear cooperation mentioned above, the Islamic Republic of Iran agrees to deposit 1200 kg LEU in Turkey. While in Turkey the LEU will continue to be the property of Iran. Iran and the IAEA may station observers to monitor the safekeeping of the LEU in Turkey.

In return, we expect the Agency, also in accordance with paragraph 6 of this declaration, to notify the Vienna Group (USA, Russia, France and the IAEA) of its content, and consequently inform us of the Group's positive response. Such action, according to this declaration, will pave the way to commence negotiation for elaboration on further details of the exchange leading to conclusion of a written agreement and as well as making proper arrangements between Iran and the Vienna Group.

1425 GMT: We have posted the English translation of the summary of the Mir Hossein Mousavi-Mehdi Karroubi meeting on Sunday.

1330 GMT: The Crackdown (and a Video Game). Writing for The National, Michael Theodoulou opens his story with the tale of the video game, "Fighting the Leaders of Sedition", where players can use fighter jets to kill Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami. He then moves to the real-life stories of jail sentences, alleged beatings, e.g., of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, and the detention of film director Jafar Panahi.

1310 GMT: What the Crowd Said to Ahmadinejad. HomyLafayette interprets the video, from Iranian state television, of an audience shouting at the President in Khorramshahr today:

Ahmadinejad attempted to shout over the cries of the population, but even his promises to stem unemployment in the southwestern province failed to trigger applause or to calm the people's loud refrain of "bikari, bikari!" (unemployment, unemployment!).

"The government is at your service," said the beleaguered Ahmadinejad. "With broad projects, with the efforts of the dear youth of Khorramshahr and Khuzestan province, it will uproot unemployment from Khuzestan, god willing."

1300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. According to an Iranian activist, Azad University student Sina Golchin has been sentenced to 4 1/2 years in prison by an appeals court for participating in the protest on Ashura (27 December).

1135 GMT: Sunday's Karroubi-Mousavi Meeting. Saham News, the website connected with Mehdi Karroubi, has posted a summary of the discussion between Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. The two men agreed to call for a march on 12 June, the anniversary of the election, and to seek ways to expand the awareness of the Green Movement despite Government restrictions.

1040 GMT: Ahmadinejad Heckled. An EA correspondent, who watched the President's television speech this morning, sends us two audio clips of crowd noise. He comments:

You can clearly hear people shouting 'Azadi' (freedom) in the second clip. In the first clip, near the beginning, the TV obviously tried to remove something, but it's not clear what that was.

(We've now posted a video of the incident.)

1025 GMT: Still Keeping Score on Uranium? After Sunday's confusion, Tehran has submitted a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency, outlining last week's Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on procedure for talks on a uranium swap outside Iran.

1020 GMT: Tough Crowd for Ahmadinejad? Nasser Karimi of the Associated Press reports:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's speech in a southern port town has been marred by shouts from disenchanted Iranians demanding jobs.

Ahmadinejad on Monday addressed hundreds gathered in Khorramshahr — about 625 miles (1,000 kilometers) southwest of Tehran — when scores from the crowd interrupted his speech with shouts: "We are unemployed!"

The President was speaking on the 28th anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr from Iraqi forces in the Persian Gulf War.
0945 GMT: Rahnavard's Green Movement Warriors. An English translation of the remarks of Zahra Rahnavard, activist and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, speaking to Iranian war veterans on the 28th anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr from Iraq, has been posted:

Today the Green movement is seeking the same great values and is continuing the [real] goals of the revolution and the holy defence [against Iraq]; and the martyrs of the Green movement and the warriors and woundees of this movement are the followers of the martyrs of the holly defence era [against the Iraqi occupying forces] especially in the liberation of Abadan and Khorramshar.

Today, the martyrs of the Green movement are carrying the same flag of the martyrs of the holy defence era and revive the memories of the devoted mothers that sang lullaby for the children of martyrs, soldiers and veterans. Today those children have risen from their cradles and each has become a warrior and a devotee. This is why the role of women, daughters and wives in the houses of martyrs as the flag bearers for purity, justice and freedom is truly unforgettable and will be our guide.

I would like to say to you that each has been the witness of the values of your martyrs that if this regime does not try to fulfill the demands and the transcendental and value-based expectations of the Green movement, then it will definitely fall by its own hands. The government should know that the nature of reform is to reform and not to overthrow. But it is possible that this regime with the path that it has chosen, overthrow itself. The government today has not turned 90 degrees but rather 180 degrees from the transcendental values of Islam, revolution and the holy defence era....

Our great Islamic Revolution put an end to 2500 years of monarchy and joined to the movement of prophets. These demands will never fail but if the current government does not reform itself and does not respond to the people’s demands, the Green movement will not overthrow it but rather the very own government will overthrow itself. We hope this will not happen. We would like everything to be reformed in the best way. We hope the regime itself becomes the pioneer for these demands and fulfill them but if it remains ignorant to people’s demands, then it is destroying itself.

0740 GMT: MediaWatch. Since we've chided CNN for its nuclear obsession, it's only fair to give a shout-out to Scherezade Faramarzi of the Associated Press, who posted on Sunday, "With Death Sentences, Iran Seeks to Cow Opposition".

0545 GMT: Execution. Islamic Republic News Agency reports that Abdul Hameed Rigi was hung this morning. He is the brother of Abdul Malek Rigi, the detained leader of the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah.

0525 GMT: Slowly but steadily, the opposition is building up to 12 June. In the last 72 hours, there have been statements from Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami. Mousavi and Karroubi met on Sunday, although there are still no details of the discussion.
Seven opposition websites issued a statement declaring their goals as “resistance, defending the rights of the citizens, unity and avoidance of all forms of violence” and urging the public to “resist and persist in their legal demands to restore the lost principles of the constitution”.

How and even whether these signals will translate into a challenge to the regime on the anniversary of the Presidential election is the big, unanswered question. But at least that question is being posed.

Not that this matter much, so far, to CNN. It is preoccupied with the state of play on the Iran-Brazil-Turkey proposal for talks on uranium enrichment. Iran has said --- amidst some confusion amongst its state media --- that it will formally present the proposal to the International Atomic Energy Agency today, and CNN International is already pursing it lips: ""But can the Iranians be taken at their word?"

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

We are still chasing confirmation of the status of filmmakers Mohammad Nourizad and Jafar Panahi. There were reports, amidst meetings by Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi with prisoners and their families, that the two would be freed --- pro-Government media were saying that Nourizad had been released, a report denied by Nourizad's daughter.

Student leader Majid Tavakoli has reportedly been taken back to solitary confinement and has threatened that he will go on hunger strike.

Amnesty International has posted a statement requesting "urgent action" over detainees Shiva Nazar Ahari and Kouhyar Goudarzi of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters (CHRR).

Sanctions Dance

In the continued manoeuvring over the Iran-Brazil-Turkey proposal and the US-led push for more sanctions, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday, "If I was in the place of Russian officials, I would adopt a more careful stance."

Russia has been on a non-stop balancing act since last week's moves, with Washington insisting that it has Russian support for a UN Security Council resolution punishing Tehran but Moscow also declaring that it will open Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant by August.

The Latest from Iran (23 May): Is This The People's Month?

1820 GMT: Joined-Up Government? Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, Iran's representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Sunday that Iran had not yet delivered a letter outlining the procedure for the uranium swap agreed last week with Brazil and Turkey.

Islamic Republic News Agency reported earlier Sunday that the letter had been delivered (see 1515 GMT). Iranian officials now say it will be submitted on Monday.

1815 GMT: Claimed video of a clashes between protesters and government forces today at Elm-o-Sanat University:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFHYQj8LSZE[/youtube]

NEW Iran Document: Khatami “Khordaad is the Month of the People”(22 May)
Iran Nuke Analysis: Reading the US-Turkey Discussions
The Latest from Iran (22 May): Karroubi’s Letter, University Protests

1810 GMT: Resistance. Seven opposition websites have issued a joint statement that they will “resist and persevere” in their mission of informing the public until the fall of “despotism” and the moment of “victory”.


Emrooz (Today), Tahavole Sabz (Green Evolution), Jaras/Rah-e-Sabz (Path of the Green Movement), Neday-e Sabz-e Azadi (The Green Voice of Freedom), Raymankojast (Where’s My Vote?), Mizan, and Saham News declared that that “resistance, defending the rights of the citizens, unity and avoidance of all forms of violence” are the pillars of their media activities. They urged the public to contact them with suggestions about “disseminating information” and to “resist and persist in their legal demands to restore the lost principles of the constitution.”

1800 GMT: Nourizad Still Imprisoned? An Iranian activist notifies us that Mohammad Nourizad's daughter has denied the report that he has been released from prison (see 1520 GMT). Pro-Government websites are still carrying the news.

1520 GMT:  Political Prisoner News. Tabnak is reporting from Khabar Online that filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad has been released from prison. The article also denied Nourizad's claim that he was beaten by guards last week.

1515 GMT: The Uranium Dispute. The Islamic Republic News Agency reports that Iran has officially handed a letter to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, setting out the terms for a swap of uranium, based on last week's joint declaration by Iran, Brazil and Turkey.

1510 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz is reporting, from "sources", that film director Jafar Panahi will be freed this evening from Evin Prison.

Iranian activists are writing that student leader Majid Tavakoli has been moved back to solitary confinement.

1230 GMT: Election Manipulation? Further information on the claim (0740 GMT) that entire villages were "resurrected" --- 60 around Tabriz alone --- to provide votes for President Ahmadinejad in the 2009 election: context and details can be found in Ayande News, Tabnak, and other citations in the Green Voice of Freedom article.

1220 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Press TV, drawing from Iranian Students News Agency, writes:

The Chairman of Iran's Expediency Council, Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, described the Islamic Republic as "determined" to defend its rights and in particular its nuclear rights on the international stage: "Iran will not give up its rights in the face of such psychological warfare, threats, and intimidation."...

According to the senior Iranian official, the region and the world will pay a heavy price if "hostile and unethical ways" are adopted to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue.

ISNA highlights Rafsanjani's remarks about the 28th anniversary of the Iranian defence of Khorramshahr against Iraqi attack. No word, however, about his views on internal matters.

1010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iranian Azeri activist Behboud Gholizade, the head of the NGO Yashil, has been arrested.

1000 GMT: Mousavi and Karroubi Meet. Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, reports that Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have had a new discussion today. "Further news" is promised later.

0830 GMT: Corruption Corner. Fazel Mousavi of Parliament's Article 90 Commission, has asserted that files  alleging corruption against senior government figures are being investigated.

0825 GMT: Economy Watch. Gholamreza Mesbahi Moghaddam, a leading member of Parliament's Economy Committee, has again urged the Goverernment to declare details of its subsidy cut plans, warning that otherwise there will be negative economic effects.

0815 GMT: Labour Front. Iran Labor Report sets out the regime crackdown on the Tehran and Municipality Bus Workers Labor Syndicate, with detentions, firings, and disciplinary action.

0810 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Writing for Tehran Bureau, "Hana H." has a lengthy profile of Mehdi Hashemi, Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, and the pressure upon him and his family.

Hashemi is living in Britain and has been threatened with criminal prosecution if he returns to Iran.

0745 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kurdish activist Mohieddin Azadi, detained since March 2008, is reportedly on hunger strike.

85 Iranian filmmakers have urged the judiciary to release detained director Jafar Panahi.

0740 GMT: Remembering the Election (Manipulation)? Green Voice of Freedom claims a new fact from the 2009 Presidential vote for consideraiton: dozens of villages which were recorded in 1976 but had ceased to exist by 2007 suddenly appeared for last year's ballot. The website cites the example of 60 "resurrected" villages around Tabriz.

0735 GMT: Show of Force. Rah-e-Sabz reports heavy security in Khorramshahr in southwestern Iran on the eve of a visit by President Ahmadinejad.

Rooz Online claims two million Basiji militia have been mobilised for 22 Khordaad (12 June).

0715 GMT: Yesterday we began with a defiant statement from Mehdi Karroubi. Today we start with a gentler but pointed call by former President Mohammad Khatami for the Iranian people, leading up to the 12 June anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election, to claim their rights and for the Government to respect that claim. The text is in a separate entry.

Meanwhile....

Government Spin: Look Away. Far Away....

More emphasis by President Ahmadinejad and his men on events beyond Iran. On Saturday Ahmadinejad spoke with Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey, who helped broker last week's agreement on a procedure for Tehran's uranium enrichment. Press TV gives the public line:

Iran's nuclear declaration is the beginning of a new era in the international political arena and offers a great opportunity for interaction and dialogue. Tehran is to create a new atmosphere in international relations based on fair and constructive cooperation with its friend and brother countries.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, meeting UN special representative Staffan de Mistura, settled for calling the US the main perpetrator of radicalism in Afghanistan.

New Green Website

Sabzlink, a new "portal" offering readers the latest in Iran news, has gone on-line.

Iran Nuke Analysis: Reading the US-Turkey Discussions

A bit of background to Monday's agreement between Iran, Turkey, and Brazil on procedure for an uranium enrichment deal....

Four days before the announcement, on 13 May, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu had a telephone conversation with his counterpart Hillary Clinton. Two days after that, on Saturday, they met, just before Davutoglu went to Tehran.

Hours later, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan --- who had cancelled his own trip to Iran on the Friday --- reversed course. He set aside a visit to Azerbaijan and flew to Tehran.

So what happened in the high-letter US-Turkey encounters just before the IBT agreement? According to the State Department spokesman P. J. Crowley:

During the call [on 13 May], the Secretary stressed that, in our view, Iran’s recent diplomacy was an attempt to stop Security Council action without actually taking steps to address international concerns about its nuclear program.

There’s nothing new and nothing encouraging in Iran’s recent statements. It has failed to demonstrate good faith and build confidence with the international community, which was the original intent of the Tehran research reactor proposal. It has yet to formally respond to the IAEA.

She [Clinton] stressed that the burden is with Iran and its lack of seriousness about engagement requires us to intensify efforts to apply greater pressure on Iran. Now, that was the primary purpose of the conversation. They briefly touched on other subjects, including Middle East peace and the relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Throughout the question-and-answer session, Crowley was giving the message: Iran was not going to give up its own enrichment of 20-percent uranium and so there was still the "urgent" need for sanctions as a result of the dual policy towards Iran. Translated, Washington said that there would be no unclenched fist extended to Iran as long as Israel's protests  over Tehran's nuclear programme and the regional contest for influence continued.

Crowley continued:

Iran has been very busy in recent weeks having conversations with a range of countries. Part of that conversation did occur last week in the dinner in New York. And not only – during the conversation in New York, not only did Iran not offer any new, Foreign Minister Mottaki indicated during the dinner that notwithstanding any potential agreement on the Tehran research reactor, they would continue to enrich uranium to 20 percent, which we –-- which is of great concern to us and violates their obligations under the IAEA.

So they had initially, when they announced they were going to enrich uranium to 20 percent, they claimed at the time that it was for the Tehran research reactor, but it’s obviously part of a broader agenda. And that’s what we are concerned about. That’s why we continue to pursue the sanctions resolution as part of our pressure track.

When asked whether Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's expected visit to Tehran was a "last opportunity", Crowley said:

Well, I mean, we are –-- we continue to move forward on a sanctions resolution, and we have a sense of urgency about this. We want to get this done as quickly as possible. But our view remains that we are doubtful that Iran is going to change course absent the kind of significant pressure that comes with a resolution and the consequences that come with them.

Then, when he was asked whether the State Department gave Davutoglu any red lines that Turkey should not cross, Crowley replied:

Regarding the TRR [the Tehran Research Reactor], it [a proposal for "third country enrichment"] was put on the table last fall to build confidence with the international community about the true intentions of Iran’s nuclear program. We have drawn conclusions from Iran’s failure to even respond –-- much less engage constructively –-- even respond to the proposal formally to the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency].

[Clinton] stressed to Foreign Minister Davutoglu again today that it’s not about the public statements that Iran makes. If Iran wishes to engage in –-- regarding the TRR, come up with alternatives that meet the fundamental intent of the proposal, then they can pick up the phone and call the IAEA, which is something they have failed to do.

Following the announcement of the IBT agreement, Crowley restated the reasons for an "urgent" sanctions draft:

In the statement, the White House acknowledged the efforts made by Turkey and Brazil and now called upon the IAEA to clearly and authoritatively convey the results of this arrangement to the IAEA. That said, the United States continues to have concerns about the arrangement. The joint declaration does not address the core concerns of the international community.

Iran remains in defiance of five UN Security Council resolutions, including its unwillingness to suspend enrichment operations. In fact, today Iran reaffirmed that it plans to continue to enrich uranium to 20 percent despite the fact that it previously justified this increased enrichment as for the Tehran research reactor. So public statements today suggest that the TRR deal is unrelated to it ongoing enrichment activity. In fact, they are integrally linked.

And then Crowley became very coy and even deceptive about how much Washington knew of the Turkish and Brazilian efforts:

I think we had conversations with Foreign Minister Amorim and Foreign Minister Davutoglu prior to their arrival in Tehran. I’m not aware of any specific contacts with them over the weekend.

But, setting aside Crowley's public spin, did the US know in advance of Erdogan's sudden decision to go to Iran? Most likely, Washington did not anticipate that the diplomatic efforts were moving towards an agreement, leading to the Turkish Prime Minister's change of plans. Ankara had made a decision: the benefits of a joint proposal with Iran and Brazil meant that it would exert autonomy and risk the US reaction.

Now the question is "What will Turkey will do in the UN?" This week, Erdogan wrote a letter to President Obama, saying that Ankara had opened the door slightly for a resolutio. Now the ball was in Washington's court.

In other words: "We did our part (and gained diplomatic and political advantage from doing so). You want to mess up this agreement with sanctions, so be it --- although don't expect us to vote for the resolution in the Security Council.

"We've got our ties with the US, which we value. But we also have our economic and political ties with Tehran."

The Latest from Iran (21 May): Friday Rest?

1935 GMT:More Diplomatic Games. The Islamic Republic News Agency reports:

After the joint announcement of Iran, Turkey and Brazil, Iran's permanent ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency announced the country's readiness to submit the letter to the agency. In a meeting with the agency's chief Yukiya Amano on Monday, Iran will hand over the letter.

1920 GMT: Diplomatic Games. Back from a break to find that the US has denied a visa to Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammad Mehdi Akhondzadeh Basti.

Basti was planning to attend the month-long conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty at the United Nations.

In a more positive development, the European Union's foreign policy director, Catherine Ashton, claims that Iran has signalled that it is ready to speak to representatives of the "5+1" powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China) about uranium enrichment.

NEW Iran Analysis: Four Perspectives on the Uranium-Sanctions Dance
Iran Document: Simin Behbahani’s Poem for the Executed
Iran Videos: Former Diplomat Heidari Reveals the Regime
The Latest from Iran (20 May): Back to Business

1540 GMT: Friday Rest, Indeed. A quiet day on the news front. Press TV now has the packaged summary of Ayatollah Jannati's Friday Prayer (much politer than our assessment at 1235 GMT), focusing on his portrayal of the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on procedure over uranium enrichment: "This move by Iran is another step towards building trust and leaves no room for Western excuses."


The mothers of the three detained US citizens, arrested for crossing the Iran-Iraq border last summer, have met their children for a second time.

I'm off to chat with the Islamic Student Society at the University of Birmingham about US-Iran relations.

1240 GMT: Detainee Connections? Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times notes Iraq's release of two Iranians --- one arrested seven years ago and one in 2007 by US troops --- and speculates that there is a link to Tehran's permission for the mothers of 3 detained Americans to visit their children.

1235 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. It's Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, at the podium today, and he's taking the audience on a global tour. The G-15 Summit of non-aligned nations, President Ahmadinejad's speech to the United Nations on nuclear non-proliferation, and the Turkish and Brazilian talks lead to Monday's agreement on a procedure over uranium enrichment: it's a buffet of international triumph.

But that's not to say that Jannati stayed away from the domestic scene. Here is a summary: Chastity good. Hijab very good. University students, take notice. Thank you and have a lovely day (if you're chaste and wearing the veil).

1225 GMT: Panahi Bail Hearing Tomorrow. The wife and lawyer of detained film director Jafar Panahi have told media that his case will be heard in Revolutionary Court on Saturday. Lawyer Farideh Gheirat said,  "Based on the promise I got (from the judiciary), I am hopeful that he will be released until the date set for his trial."

Panahi was arrested in early March and has recently gone on hunger strike to protest his treatment in prison.


0920 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran Labor Report surveys layoffs, unpaid wages, and problems for factories in Tabriz, including the threat to close one of the largest industries in the city, Tractors Manufacturing.

0915 GMT: The Afghanistan Protests. Demonstrations continue in Afghanistan over the jailing of Afghans in Iranian jails: the latest was outside the Iranian Consulate in Herat, with chants of "Marg bar Khamenei" (Death to Khamenei).

0910 GMT: Cyber-Wars. Revolutionary Guard commander Ebrahim Jabbari announces, "We have the second biggest cyber army of the world."

0755 GMT: Fashion Warning. Mohammad Hosseini, the Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, has warned that women are not appropriately dressed in Iranian films.

0750 GMT: Conspiracy Theory of Day.Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian, an Ahmadinejad supporter in Parliament, has "revealed" that, after meeting global financier George Soros, former President Mohammad Khatami anointed Mir Hossein Mousavi for leadership by "putting the green shawl around Mousavi's neck".

0740 GMT: Global Analysis of Day. Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai hands down a lesson in politics at home and abroad. He pronounces that "near to nothing is left over" from Israel, which exists only to serve superpowers in the Middle East". In contrast, Iran is a model where "no one has to be jobless", so "in 15 years millions of people in the world will be at our service".

0625 GMT: Brotherhood, Defence, and Hikers' Moms. A glance at Press TV's "Iran" section this morning is instructive: none of the lead stories are about internal matters. Instead, there is the platform of a meeting with the Speaker of Kuwait's Parliament for President Ahmadinejad to declare,
"The age of threat is over and (the) future belongs to brotherly talks."

The commander of Iran's ground forces, General Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan responds to the age of non-threat with the announcement that Iran will deploy remote-controlled weapons on its border areas: ""So if any enemy enters these areas it will face either soldiers or weaponry that act as soldiers and will target them."

Elsewhere, it is Iranian goodwill that dominates, with features on Thursday's hotel visit by the mothers of three detained US citizens with their children, arrested for crossing the Iraq-Iran border last summer.

0555 GMT: So to the end of a week with both the artificial drama of the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on uranium enrichment and the US-led response of a sanctions resolution introduced to the United Nations Security Council and the escalating drama of a Government, struggling to maintain legitimacy, stepping up intimidation and detentions.

We've posted a separate entry with four incisive and very different perspectives on the uranium dispute.

And now to watch for developments on the domestic front....