The Final 24 Hours: High Anxiety for the Democrats?

The early morning snapshot of the Presidential race:



Perhaps the worst media attempt to big up the electoral drama came from the BBC's John Pienaar, who declared yesterday, "This campaign is...sweaty." Across the board --- print and broadcast, in the US and here in Britain --- the thump-thump today will be of a mad dash to the finish line, with Big John charging from behind. As CNN framed it this morning, "Republicans have moxie."

Well, apart from looking up "moxie", I've been looking at the far-from-sweaty trends. Yes, as Enduring America projected last week, McCain has a slight overall bounce in the final days. Yes, the Republicans have stemmed the Democratic rush towards a landslide --- in part because the campaign rather than the economy is front-page news, in part because of a (belated) attempt to counter the Democrats' 50-state strategy.

But it's a ripple, rather than a wave. Weekend polls in Pennsylvania with relatively small samples have Obama 4-7 points ahead, with the trend-adjusted average still showing a Democratic advantage of +7. The Republican logic is becoming clear --- because Pennsylvania does not have early voting and because it's considered a more "static" state in terms of population (i.e., not as many pro-Democratic white-collar folks coming into the state in recent years, as in Virginia), fire your last big shot here for Joe the Plumber and all other good ol' Americans. It's still a desperation shot.

Elsewhere, the good news for the GOP is that Florida is now a (trend-adjusted) 50-50 race. Apart from the Sunshine State, though, it's very bleak for McCain. Even taking trend-adjusted numbers, which reflect the recent "bounce" for the Republicans, Virginia is still Democratic by 4-5 points, and the Republicans are still down 3 points in Ohio, which has had heavy early voting favouring Obama. In the Western hat-trick of swing states, Democrats are up 4-5 points in Colorado and Nevada and more than 9 in New Mexico.

So, the floor for the Democrats --- barring divine intervention by a pro-Republican God or mass conversion by voters --- is handing over Florida to the GOP and still winning comfortably 311-227.