Thursday
Nov122009
The Latest from Iran (12 November): Ahmadinejad Moves for Nuclear Deal
Thursday, November 12, 2009 at 9:54
NEW Iran: “Regime Change” Conference in Cleveland, Ohio!
Iran Video & Text: The Mousavi Interview with Jamaran (9 November)
Iran: The Story of How Mr Ahmadinejad Met US “Spies”
Iran: Shadi Sadr’s Speech Accepting “2009 Human Rights Defenders Tulip”
The Latest from Iran (11 November): Revelations & Connections
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1900 GMT: An EA source tips us off to an on-line presentation from last month, "Debating Engagement: A Critical Dialogue on Iran and the Peace Movement".
1820 GMT: Iran's state Arabic-language satellite service Al-Alam is on air again after the French company Eutelsat agreed to carry its programmes. Al-Alam's former providers, the Saudi- and Egypt-based Arabsat and Nilesat, withdrew on 3 November.
1620 GMT: Families of political prisoners have gathered for the third time in front of offices of Iran's judiciary, calling for the release of all political prisoners and demanding the administration of law and justice for all. The families met representatives of the judiciary but failed to get an audience with the head of the judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.
At the end of this gathering, the families asked for the immediate release of those arrested during prayer and of innocent women. They called for “conducting public fair trials”, “allowing the prisoners to have the right of choosing their lawyers and naming those who are obstructing this right”, “identifying those who are putting pressure on some of the post-election prisoners’ families”, and “expediting court hearings and immediate release of those imprisoned with reduced bail".
1545 GMT: Punishing the Protesters. Pictures of orders banning students from their dormitories are now circulating on the Internet.
1535 GMT: For My Next Trick, I Will Solve Traffic Jams. This is either political genius or massive overconfidence: in the midst of conflicts over the economy, the nuclear issues, and his own legitimacy, President Ahmadinejad has declared his urgent priority to clear Tehran's roads: "We have solutions for Tehran and I believe I will soon have to personally intervene in Tehran's issues because I see that the traffic situation is making our citizens suffer."
Go a bit deeper, and you'll find a political battle which is far more than Mahmoud jumping into the middle of the Modarres Expressway to direct traffic. This is another play for power against an opponent within the establishment, in this case, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer-Qalibaf:
1110 GMT: Responsible Journalism? Marc Champion of The Wall Street Journal offers the dramatic story, "Revolutionary Guard Tightens Security Grip":
Pretty serious news. Only problem is that Champion's information, initially cited as "interviews with Iranian analysts and opposition figures, along with recent government announcements", turns out to be a single source: Maryam Rajavi of the opposition group National Council for Resistance in Iran.
At no point does Champion note that the NCRI is the political arm of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, the group which for 30 years has sought the overthrow of the Iranian regime through violence and assassinations (he does put the qualification, "The NCRI is listed in the U.S. as a terrorist organization, though not in Europe). And nowhere does he notes that the NCRI --- as the group that he says is "responsible for exposing much of Iran's controversial nuclear-fuel program" --- has also been challenged over the years for providing distorted and inaccurate information.
1100 GMT: More University Protests (see 1000 GMT). Video has come in of yesterday's protest at Khaje Nasir University, where demonstrations have been occurring on a daily basis for more than a week.
1015 GMT: So Much for the Lull --- Ahmadi's Nuclear Push. Press TV summarises President Ahmadinejad's televised interview on Wednesday night as a claim that "the West has retreated in its nuclear dispute with Tehran, as it is no longer talking of suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment activities".
Ahmadinejad, declared, "We have now entered a stage of cooperation. At the moment, one of the key issues is Iran's participation in projects such as the international [nuclear] fuel bank or reactor and plant construction. There is no more talk of suspension. We have reached a stage where we are cooperating, on a high level, with other countries that have the technology through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)."
Interpretation? This is the clear indication that the President doesn't just want continued nuclear discussions; he's looking for a deal. He is setting up the presentation that an agreement on enrichment in a third country, accompanied by acceptance of Iran into international projects, will be a great "victory" with the West bowing down and recognising Tehran's as a nuclear power. This would be a triumph of Iran's enemies, as "Israelis and a number of Western countries are angry about [the discussions]. They are trying to prevent us from forming cooperation. They want the talks to break down and end in dispute."
So on to the next questions. How do Ahmadinejad's opponents, not just within the reformist movement but within the establishment (Ali Larijani, the ball's in your court) react? Where is Hashemi Rafsanjani? And what does the Supreme Leader say/fail to say in response?
1000 GMT: University Protests. There is now video confirmation of a demonstration at Elm-o-Sanat University (Iran University of Science and Technology) in Tehran. HomyLafayette adds the observation that http://www.iust.ac.ir/ is considered a base of support for President Ahmadinejad and the regime and that the Supreme Leader maintains an office on the campus.
0900 GMT: Catching up on the morning headlines in Iranian state media, it appears they have uncovered a nasty plot to overthrow the Iranian system coming out of the revolutionary hotbed of Cleveland, Ohio. We've got the story.
0745 GMT: A quiet start to the day. There is little political movement from either the Government or the opposition. It appears that President Ahmadinejad's immediate priority is to get Parliamentary approval of his proposals for subsidy reform, with the internal tensions over nuclear talks put aside over the last 48 hours.
Meanwhile, surprisingly little follow-up on the Mousavi message on Monday to Jamaran. I am uncertain as to whether this is because knowledge of it inside Iran has been restricted, because the statement has not sparked as much interest as Mousavi's previous declaration, or for another reason. Mehdi Karroubi has been relatively muted in recent days, and other reformist groups have been curbed in their public positions because of Government pressure.
That leaves, it appears, the simmering protest on university campuses to prop up interest and spirits. And, however quiet it may be for the moment, there is always the beacon of 16 Azar (7 December).
Iran Video & Text: The Mousavi Interview with Jamaran (9 November)
Iran: The Story of How Mr Ahmadinejad Met US “Spies”
Iran: Shadi Sadr’s Speech Accepting “2009 Human Rights Defenders Tulip”
The Latest from Iran (11 November): Revelations & Connections
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
1900 GMT: An EA source tips us off to an on-line presentation from last month, "Debating Engagement: A Critical Dialogue on Iran and the Peace Movement".1820 GMT: Iran's state Arabic-language satellite service Al-Alam is on air again after the French company Eutelsat agreed to carry its programmes. Al-Alam's former providers, the Saudi- and Egypt-based Arabsat and Nilesat, withdrew on 3 November.
1620 GMT: Families of political prisoners have gathered for the third time in front of offices of Iran's judiciary, calling for the release of all political prisoners and demanding the administration of law and justice for all. The families met representatives of the judiciary but failed to get an audience with the head of the judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.
At the end of this gathering, the families asked for the immediate release of those arrested during prayer and of innocent women. They called for “conducting public fair trials”, “allowing the prisoners to have the right of choosing their lawyers and naming those who are obstructing this right”, “identifying those who are putting pressure on some of the post-election prisoners’ families”, and “expediting court hearings and immediate release of those imprisoned with reduced bail".
1545 GMT: Punishing the Protesters. Pictures of orders banning students from their dormitories are now circulating on the Internet.
1535 GMT: For My Next Trick, I Will Solve Traffic Jams. This is either political genius or massive overconfidence: in the midst of conflicts over the economy, the nuclear issues, and his own legitimacy, President Ahmadinejad has declared his urgent priority to clear Tehran's roads: "We have solutions for Tehran and I believe I will soon have to personally intervene in Tehran's issues because I see that the traffic situation is making our citizens suffer."
Go a bit deeper, and you'll find a political battle which is far more than Mahmoud jumping into the middle of the Modarres Expressway to direct traffic. This is another play for power against an opponent within the establishment, in this case, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer-Qalibaf:
Ahmadinejad went on to say that his administration plans to take over the control of the Tehran Metro Company from the municipality. The remarks came as the Tehran Municipality and government are in disagreement about providing the capital's subway system with state subsidies. The president also called on...Qalibaf and the Tehran City Council to agree with shifting the management of the metro to the government.
1110 GMT: Responsible Journalism? Marc Champion of The Wall Street Journal offers the dramatic story, "Revolutionary Guard Tightens Security Grip":
Seven different agencies have now been subordinated to...the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, gutting the intelligence ministry of power....The seven agencies include the old intelligence directorate of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as its cyberdefense unit; the intelligence directorate of the Basij; parts of the now-gutted intelligence ministry; Mr. Khamenei's own intelligence unit, known as Office 101; and the plainclothes units and Tehran Revolutionary Guard headquarters tasked with controlling street protests in the capital.he seven agencies include the old intelligence directorate of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as its cyberdefense unit; the intelligence directorate of the Basij; parts of the now-gutted intelligence ministry; Mr. Khamenei's own intelligence unit, known as Office 101; and the plainclothes units and Tehran Revolutionary Guard headquarters tasked with controlling street protests in the capital.
Pretty serious news. Only problem is that Champion's information, initially cited as "interviews with Iranian analysts and opposition figures, along with recent government announcements", turns out to be a single source: Maryam Rajavi of the opposition group National Council for Resistance in Iran.
At no point does Champion note that the NCRI is the political arm of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, the group which for 30 years has sought the overthrow of the Iranian regime through violence and assassinations (he does put the qualification, "The NCRI is listed in the U.S. as a terrorist organization, though not in Europe). And nowhere does he notes that the NCRI --- as the group that he says is "responsible for exposing much of Iran's controversial nuclear-fuel program" --- has also been challenged over the years for providing distorted and inaccurate information.
1100 GMT: More University Protests (see 1000 GMT). Video has come in of yesterday's protest at Khaje Nasir University, where demonstrations have been occurring on a daily basis for more than a week.
1015 GMT: So Much for the Lull --- Ahmadi's Nuclear Push. Press TV summarises President Ahmadinejad's televised interview on Wednesday night as a claim that "the West has retreated in its nuclear dispute with Tehran, as it is no longer talking of suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment activities".
Ahmadinejad, declared, "We have now entered a stage of cooperation. At the moment, one of the key issues is Iran's participation in projects such as the international [nuclear] fuel bank or reactor and plant construction. There is no more talk of suspension. We have reached a stage where we are cooperating, on a high level, with other countries that have the technology through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)."
Interpretation? This is the clear indication that the President doesn't just want continued nuclear discussions; he's looking for a deal. He is setting up the presentation that an agreement on enrichment in a third country, accompanied by acceptance of Iran into international projects, will be a great "victory" with the West bowing down and recognising Tehran's as a nuclear power. This would be a triumph of Iran's enemies, as "Israelis and a number of Western countries are angry about [the discussions]. They are trying to prevent us from forming cooperation. They want the talks to break down and end in dispute."
So on to the next questions. How do Ahmadinejad's opponents, not just within the reformist movement but within the establishment (Ali Larijani, the ball's in your court) react? Where is Hashemi Rafsanjani? And what does the Supreme Leader say/fail to say in response?
1000 GMT: University Protests. There is now video confirmation of a demonstration at Elm-o-Sanat University (Iran University of Science and Technology) in Tehran. HomyLafayette adds the observation that http://www.iust.ac.ir/ is considered a base of support for President Ahmadinejad and the regime and that the Supreme Leader maintains an office on the campus.
0900 GMT: Catching up on the morning headlines in Iranian state media, it appears they have uncovered a nasty plot to overthrow the Iranian system coming out of the revolutionary hotbed of Cleveland, Ohio. We've got the story.
0745 GMT: A quiet start to the day. There is little political movement from either the Government or the opposition. It appears that President Ahmadinejad's immediate priority is to get Parliamentary approval of his proposals for subsidy reform, with the internal tensions over nuclear talks put aside over the last 48 hours.
Meanwhile, surprisingly little follow-up on the Mousavi message on Monday to Jamaran. I am uncertain as to whether this is because knowledge of it inside Iran has been restricted, because the statement has not sparked as much interest as Mousavi's previous declaration, or for another reason. Mehdi Karroubi has been relatively muted in recent days, and other reformist groups have been curbed in their public positions because of Government pressure.
That leaves, it appears, the simmering protest on university campuses to prop up interest and spirits. And, however quiet it may be for the moment, there is always the beacon of 16 Azar (7 December).
tagged 16 Azar, Al Alam Television, Ali Larijani, Arabsat, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Elm-o-Sanat University, Eutelsat, Hashemi Rafsanjani, HomyLafayette, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Jamaran, Khaje Nasir University, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Marc Champion, Maryam Rajavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, National Council of Resistance of Iran, Nilesat, Press TV, Wall Street Journal, uranium enrichment in Middle East & Iran
16 Azar, Al Alam Television, Ali Larijani, Arabsat, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Elm-o-Sanat University, Eutelsat, Hashemi Rafsanjani, HomyLafayette, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Jamaran, Khaje Nasir University, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Marc Champion, Maryam Rajavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, National Council of Resistance of Iran, Nilesat, Press TV, Wall Street Journal, uranium enrichment in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (10)
I find myself wondering if I am the only person that gets a kick out of the fact that due to the nature of liveblogging, Scott must title his daily Iran entries before most of the day actually occurs. Having a 100% success rate with this must require a degree of ESP, it seems.
Maybe one day we will reach a time where EA becomes so influential that baddies will read EA and purposely decide to ruin its reputation. Perhaps Mohammad Reza Naqdi will say "aha, that jerk Lucas said there is going to be a 'Lull' today. I'm going to arrest 500 pregnant women and show him who is boss!"
Anyway, I was given two interesting links last night by a green supporter. One is from Rooz and involves some interesting new claims about the extent the regime is going to control internet access in Iran: http://bit.ly/266Ksa
The other is a part of the Colbert Report from last night (or the night before, depending on where you live). Karim Sadjadpour was interviewed for a segment about Mahmoud Vahidnia, the math student who challenged the Supreme Leader. Although the segment is really funny, I found myself actually disturbed by one part towards the end. Colbert says "We think of the [Green] Revolution as over. Is it over, or is it just at such a low boil that we can't perceive it?"' Sadjadpour thankfully responds "Absolutely not over, Stephen!" However, the exchange concerned me. Assuming that unlike myself, who is spending a disproportionate (some would say unhealthy) proportion of his time focused on the domestic events in Iran, Colbert's attention is spread around in a more balanced way. Do most Americans (or even Westerners) think that the Green Wave is over? http://bit.ly/11jt1g
I hate to say this, but although the regime's attempt to prevent anybody from reporting truthfully on the internal situation in Iran may have mostly failed domestically, it appears to have been a rousing success internationally. As Scott points out on a daily basis, Western sources mostly aren't reporting much on the domestic situation in Iran. It seems like rather than redoubling their efforts in spite of the obstacles, the Western media just decided it was too difficult to get information from inside Iran, and settled for lazily reporting exclusively on the small % of info that they can get with relative ease. Perhaps the lack of coverage (at least in part) has led to most folks in the West just thinking "that whole Green thing must be over by now." :(
Many media organizations need two sources to corroborate a story before going with it, and the video is difficult to use because Youtube considers it proprietary. Moreover, those that send it in do not think to use any clever means of dating the material to the day they say the event took place. These unfortunate factors make it difficult to go with an internal Iran story that doesn't have wire service correspondents corroborating the event. All of this is regrettable, but I wouldn't chalk it up to laziness, by any means. It kind of reminds me of Beirut in the late '80s. Most of the foreign correspondents were in Cyprus and no one was interested in a story unless one of the BBC chaps had his binoculars out and noticed what was going on the Lebanese side of the pond.
Scott,
IRNA does seem to have a report, this morning (apologies, I can only read the Arabic version) about a new defense/intelligence shuffle [the headline reads: appointment of new head of Rev. Guard for Tehran]
http://www.irna.ir/AR/View/FullStory/?NewsId=785325&IdLanguage=2
تعيين القائد الجديد لقوات حرس الثورة في طهران الکبرى
طهران / 12 تشرين الثاني / نوفمبر /ارنا- اصدر القائد العام لقوات حرس الثورة الاسلامية اللواء محمد علي جعفري قرارا عين بموجبه العميد حسين همداني قائدا جديدا لفيلق "محمد رسول الله (ص)" في منطقة طهران الکبرى.
Edward,
Much appreciated --- I should have made clear in update that there has been reorganisation of intell services in recent months with Ahmadinejad's move to control Ministry of Intelligence in summer. I just don't think Rajavi is the best source (and certainly not a reliable sole source) for the story.
S.
Scott,
I certainly agree with you on that point.
e.
@ Kevin Scott
Karim Sadjadpour mad a clear (and comprehensive) statement on qantara.de/Deutsche Welle about his assessment of the situation in Iran: "The Iranian Regime Is Now More Vulnerable Than Ever Before". http://www.qantara.de/webcom/show_article.php/_c-476/_nr-1251/i.html (English version).
The news cited by Edward Yerenian was available on several serious Persian sites, confirming reorganisation of intelligence services.
Meanwhile disclosures on AN's supporters continue, this time on influential and younger clerics: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=9228
Also a video clip from Ali Hagh-Talab. son of Pasdar Hagh-Talab, shooting at protesters on November 4 in Tehran: http://onlymehdi.saharkhiz.net/archives/195859346
Re 11:10 GMT
U.S. government and we have no moral authority to call MKO or NCRI a terrorist organizations when we are making deals with the largest terrorist organization in the world, the mafia government of IR.
Isn’t Green Movement trying to do what Mujahedin-e- Khalgh (MKO) has been trying for 30 years, overthrowing the Iranian regime? So how come we hail one as hero and call the other a villain? Okay, MKO tactics have been different. Is it possible that MKO may be a bit smarter and whole lot realistic about the nature of its enemy, the IR mafia organization?
After learning about MKO struggle and the faith of their members under Khomeini regime, I would not shed any tear for any IR government figure who was assassinated by MKO. Why should anybody when Khomeini regime executed anywhere from 5000 to 30000 members of this group (with no trial) and buried them in mass graves. We were okay with Khomeini’s mass murder but if in retaliation MKO killed a few thugs we are quick to call that terrorist act. What a travesty.
MKO demands were the same as those of the Green movement, freedom, justice, equal right for women and minorities, government of law not lawlessness. If 25 years ago 2-3 million people poured into the streets and supported MKO as they supported and continue to support Green Movement, their children would not be shot dead in the streets of Tehran or raped in government prisons today.
Anybody who claims to be sympathetic to democracy movement in Iran and agrees that currently there is no democracy and no respects for individual rights in Iran, is a hypocrite calling MKO or NCRI terrorist organizations. And if they do they are either working for or are sympathetic to the hated regime of IR.
MKO members are Freedom Fighters as are people in Green Movement or any other political groups in Iran that is striving to dissolve the mafia government of Iran. IRI is the shame of Iran and must be wiped out from the face of the earth (borrowing a phrase from Mahmud, president of morons and thugs).
Oh, Scott changes the header as needed in the middle of the day. LOL Don't I feel silly now! I think this shows me not to leave comments I think are profound after pulling an "all-nighter" the night before. It's a bit like thinking you are so brilliant when you are intoxicated, only to find out late on that you were just a legend in your own mind .. LOL
Thanks for the link Paleene. I will check that out ASAP.
Don't worry, Kevin, I guess we all feel like having made some tuppenny-ha'penny remarks every now and then. At least me - I have been there more than once ;)
Don't let this feeling keep you from posting, please!