Iran Video & Text: The Mousavi Interview with Jamaran (9 November)

The Latest from Iran (11 November): Revelations & Connections

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Mir Hossein's interview with Jamaran website, published on Monday:

Part 1 of 3

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNnkV75Pj2w[/youtube]

Part 2 of 3

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6rNYSK2wQE&feature=channel[/youtube]

Part 3

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sJrGpNSU3U&feature=channel[/youtube] of 3

Some have their interests in having a divided society
Taking the fanatic approach will take the country to a dead-end

Currently spreading rumours has become very common. We have some individuals whose case, if they were reviewed by Imam Khomeini’s standards, would be considered very tainted. The regime is accusing the people’s great movement of being linked to traitors. It is in their benefit to increase divisions and cynicism in the society in order to prevent their own cases from being unveiled, while it is in everyone’s best interest to acknowledge people’s rights and create optimism.

I feel that the tendency of power to become totalitarian has led to a structured corruption of power in different branches of the establishment....

Considering Imam Khomeini's viewpoint, unity is not achievable based on political loyalties. The union approved by the Imam is a union that relies on components like national interests and a healthy survival of the Islamic establishment, where your connections to power through family, friendship, and acquaintance do not matter.

One of the issues that was raised during the election was on whatever happened to the $300 billion [of oil revenues]. During the [Iran-Iraq] war, if an issue of financial corruption was raised, it was immediately attended to. The smallest corruptions were magnified to a great degree [due to the ongoing war]. In the past, if there was an issue of a missing $10,000, with no record of its expenditure, this could have caused the fall of the Government. Now, the issue is billions of dollars and nobody seems to care.

If it was the early years of the Revolution, this legislation to provide direction to the subsidies [referring to Ahmadinejad's legislation to remove subsidies from food and energy within 3 years] would not have been raised the way it is now. This legislation is not bad in itself. But [right now] the Government are on the one hand talking about removing all the subsidies, causing gas prices to increase, while on other hand they are refusing a budget to the underground subway system. On one side, people's daily affairs will be interrupted under the pressure of high gas prices, and on the other there is no effort put into public transportation. This would cause serious problems for people.

If it becomes common in a system for people to see that their rights are trampled without any objection, that system will move towards violence and dictatorship.

I sincerely believe that granting multi-billion dollar contract to Sepah [the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps] is neither in the interest of the whole regime nor in the interest of Sepah.

There are individuals who live in this way. I sincerely do not know if they have faith or are religious or not....We have people who have a very corrupt record, if it is viewed with the viewpoint of the Imam. But now the regime says that this great popular movement is all connected to the MKO [Mujahedin-e-Khalq "terrorist" organisation].

The interests of the country is in defining the circle of “insiders” such that there is very little left on the outside [thus allowing almost everyone a voice]. Otherwise, we have to doubt our own behavior. We simply cannot put aside thousands of prominent managers who have served this country.

What is happening these days is that the margins have become bigger than the centre. The centre has become very small....
In these margins, we have many managers and clerics, a few marja’ a [senior clerics], a few ex-presidents, and even an ex-head of Parliament....In a situation like this, those who have remained in the main context have to rely on garrisons because they don’t have the support of such a big margin. And this is what has happened: in order to prevent lapsing into a coma, we became numb and insensitive as if suffering from leprosy.

It is in our country’s interest to agree on a fundamental and important matter: the Constitution. You and I may have differences of opinion but we have to agree on the Constitution to solve our problems. We should put aside our differences and attempt to reform.

The people who participated in the revolution didn’t come to the scene to face so many problems. They came for a better life and for freedom.

The Latest from Iran (10 November): Uncertainty and Propaganda

NEW Iran: The Mousavi Interview with Jamaran (9 November)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Khaje Nasir University Hunger Strike (10 November)
NEW Iran: The Neda Agha Soltan Scholarship at Oxford University
Iran: An Eyewitness on 13 Aban “Protest An Inseparable Part of People’s Lives”
Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Washington’s Unhelpful Misperceptions
Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban & from Today (8-9 November)
The Latest from Iran (9 November): Assessing the Government

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1920 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with the Jamaran website.

1845 GMT: Mohammad Saleh Jokar, a senior official in the Student Basij organization, has announced that 6,000 Basij units will be created in elementary schools, seeking to promote Basij and revolutionary ideals among pupils from a young age. Jokar added that about 4.5 million students at elementary and high schools and 320,000 teachers are members of the Basij force.

1830 GMT: Rooz Online has published an English-language version of Ferehsteh Ghazi's interview with Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. The cleric asserts,

The confessions that have been extracted in prison have absolutely no religious or legal value and cannot be the basis for the death or prison punishments that have been issued. Those who are responsible and their accomplices for such confessions, are religiously and legally guilty and criminal.

Whenever the execution of a religious punishment leads to negative consequences on religion or society, the judge can and must stop the execution. (see also "Ayatollah Montazeri’s Interview on Eve of 13 Aban")

1820 GMT: Labour Activists Jailed. We reported in late October on the threats to detain leaders of the Syndicate of Workers of Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane Company after protests. Four of them --- Fereydoun Nikoufard, Jalil Ahmadi, Ghorban Alipour and Mohammad Haydari --- have now begun prison terms.

1800 GMT: Publish and Be Damned. Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has warned that he will pursue sites that “publish baseless news”. The statement follows Monday's declaration by Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam, Iran's commander of security forces, "There is need for greater supervision over the internet....Every time we have entered this scene, the media and individuals who show off as intellectuals attack and we step back.”

1330 GMT: A relatively quiet period, as we try to track down an English translation of the Mousavi statement on Monday to the Khomeini-owned Jamaran website, but as an EA correspondent notes: "This was a master stroke by the Khomeini family, as it places Mousavi under its own tutelage and wards off attempts to arrest him."

Meanwhile, we have video of today's hunger strike at Khaje Nasir University.

1130 GMT: US Tells Ahmadinejad, "We've Got You Covered". US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton may have just given the clearest message that Washington will work with the Iranian President, whatever obstacles he faces, to get an uranium enrichment deal.

Speaking to the US Public Broadcasting Service, Clinton said, "Look, we don't have to trust or love each other to understand that it is in our interest to try to stabilize the world." Then, noting the post-election crisis, she extended a helping hand to Ahmadinejad: "We understand the internal political dynamics, and we've been, I think, patient in helping [Iran] to see that we're serious."

0850 GMT: More on "Neda's Scholarship". The Iranian Embassy in Britain has fiercely criticised the award of a graduate scholarship in the name of Neda Agha Soltan by Queen's College, Oxford University (see separate entry).

Writing to Oxford's chancellor, the embassy expressed surprise at "a politically-motivated move", which involves the university "n a criminal case which is still under investigation by the Iranian police".

The embassy adds that Neda's death was "far from the scene of protests [which] erupted after the June presidential election". Indeed, the Iranian officials hint unsubtly, her slaying was part of a "complicated and planned" scenario.

So, the embassy concludes, "The involvement of the university in Iran's internal affairs, particularly in the country's post-election events of which the British media played a leading role, would lead to the loss of the university's scientific prestige and academic goal. This has nothing to do with the university's position and goals and will not help Iran and Britain improve their relations."

0835 GMT: More Than Meets the Eye on the Nukes? President Obama has told Reuters, ""Although so far we have not seen the kind of positive response we want from Iran, we are as well positioned as we've ever been to align the international community behind that agenda."

On the surface, that is an unexciting, hold-the-line statement. Yet it appears prominently in Iranian state media via Press TV, and it follows the clear signal from the US, via its ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (see yesterday's updates), that Iran has time to negotiate the Vienna uranium enrichment deal.

So are there talks behind talks for a US-Iran agreement? And, if so, by whom with whom?

0735 GMT: EA readers have followed up our news about the petition to commute the death sentence of  Ehsan Fattahian, arrested in July 2008 and scheduled for execution tomorrow for "war against God". They point us to his open letter, "I Never Feared Death".

0730 GMT: EA readers point us to a video of a heated debate at a Tehran university between Mostafa Kavakebian, a reformist member of Parliament, and his counterpart Hojatoleslam Hamid Rasaee, about the rule of law in post-election Iran.

0725 GMT: We've posted a separate entry on the announcement of Queen's College, Oxford University, of a graduate scholarship in Philosophy in the memory of Neda Agha Soltan.

0630 GMT: A relative lull in the post-election crisis yesterday. The Government is still caught up in the detailed debate over its economic plans and the two-front confrontation --- at home and abroad --- over its response to the Vienna uranium enrichment deal. President Ahmadinejad is abroad, the Supreme Leader is silent for the moment, and surprisingly little has been heard from the military and security forces.

But only a "relative" lull. After each major gathering since June, there have been quiet phases, and yesterday was far from quiet. Mir Hossein Mousavi followed Mohammad Khatami into the post-13 Aban pages (and, again, note that the interview is being featured by the Khomeini family, which should be treated as an ally of the opposition) with his declaration for unity and warning that the Government could not hide behind the claim of an immutable Constitution, given that it was not living up to that document. Demonstrations are occurring each day somewhere on an Iranian university campus, and word-of-mouth is spreading the message that the mass gathering for 16 Azar (7 December) is less than a month away. And all of this is happening despite much, possibly the majority, of the Green leadership in prison or abroad.

This morning the news from the regime is of more uncertainty and mis-information. Kazem Jalili of Parliament's National Security Commission is pushing the anti-deal line that enrichment must be done inside Iran, using uranium purchased abroad, rather than in a country like Russia. Fars is claiming a private hospital refused to treat injured security forces, only treating a "certain group of people and turn[ing] away all bearded individuals who had a Basiji appearance".

And Khalil Hayat Moghaddam, a member of Parliament's judicial commission, has taken the propaganda that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have split (recall the false interview with Karroubi's son) to new depths:

These two have forgotten that they made a name for themselves under the banner of the Revolution, Leadership and martyrs...,as the tears of the mothers of the martyrs and the blood of the martyrs are what protect the establishment and the Leadership [from harm]. Mousavi and Karroubi's story brings to mind the tale of those people who were fighting over imaginary spoils of war; they have forgotten that they will not be able to inflict harm on the establishment and the Revolution. The harsh stance adopted by Hassan Karroubi against Mir Mousavi Mousavi clearly shows that disagreements are increasing between the supporters of the two political figures, and it will come to spelling each other's end. (English summary at Tehran Bureau)

The Latest from Iran (9 November): Assessing the Government

NEW Iran: An Eyewitness on 13 Aban “Protest An Inseparable Part of People’s Lives”
NEW Iran's Nuclear Programme: Washington's Unhelpful Misperceptions
Latest Iran Video: Mehdi Karroubi on the 13 Aban Protests
NEW Iran: An Opposition Renewing, A Government in Trouble
Iran: Question for the Regime “What’s Your Next Punch?”
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban & from Today (8-9 November)

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2030 GMT: We're still waiting for an English translation of today's Mir Hossein Mousavi newspaper with Jamaran, the newspaper of the Khomeini family (see 1015 GMT). The headline is Mousavi's declaration that Iran is "vulnerable" in the current political situation: “People who entered the scene of the Revolution did not do it to suffer such difficulties. They came to secure their freedom and welfare, and if the system fails to deliver, it will lose its legitimacy for certain.”

2020 GMT: An EA reader has sent us the petition, printed in full in the comments below, to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to commute the death sentence of Ehsan Fatahian, a 28-year-old Kurd who is scheduled for execution on Wednesday. Fatahian was initially given a 10-year prison term for “plotting against national security” but this was changed to a death sentence by an appeal court when the charge “waging war against God” was added.

2000 GMT: Back from a break to find excellent material from readers. With university demonstrations continuing today, we've posted four clips from a rally at Azad University, Khomeini Shahr, outside Isfahan.

An EA reader describes, in a comment below, today's  ceremony awarding the Human Rights Defenders Tulip to Iranian lawyer and human/women’s rights activist Shadi Sadr in The Hague.

Tomorrow (10 November) at 12:00 CET she will present a film, Women in Shrouds, and hold a Q&A about human rights in Iran. If anyone here would like to ask her a question through me, please post it here in these comments.

1645 GMT: Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat, the main reformist student and alumni organisation, has issued a statement announcing that it will withstand the oppression of "coup agents" with all of its organisational power, even as almost half of its key members are imprisoned or sought by the security forces.


The significance beyond this general assertion is that when the organisation issued a statement of defiance on the eve of 13 Aban, the regime arrested three of its leading members. So renewing this show of resistance is a clear signal that, less than a month before the next mass rally on 16 Azar (7 December), the students will not be cowed into silence.

1630 GMT: Hillary Responds and Iran's State Media Takes Note. No surprise that Secretary of State Clinton would offer a boiler-plate response to the news of the charging of the three hikers:

We believe strongly that there is no evidence to support any charge whatsoever. And we would renew our request on the behalf of these three young people and their families that the Iranian government exercise compassion and release them so they can return home. And we will continue to make that case through our Swiss protecting power, who represents the United States in Tehran.

More interesting, perhaps, that the statement would be prominently featured on Press TV's website.

1440 GMT: The Story Beyond the Headline Story --- 3 US Hikers Charged with Espionage. Western media will be dominated for the next 24 hours by the breaking news that three Americans who strayed across the Iraq-Iran border will be charged with spying, according to Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi.

Here's the unreported dimension of the event. The news came through only hours after the US representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Glyn Davies, offered Washington's olive branch in the nuclear talks:

"There have been communications back and forth. We are in extra innings in these negotiations. That's sometimes the way these things go....We want to give some space to Iran to work through this. It's a tough issue for them, quite obviously, and we're hoping for an early positive answer from the Iranians."

Davies' kind words appear to be tied to the new Iranian counter-proposal (see separate entry), which in visit may be linked to Russian intervention through the visit of its Deputy Foreign Minister to Tehran this weekend.

So is the Iranian Government playing a cunning game where it can engage the US with one hand and strike at Washington, via its citizens,  with the other? Or are we now seeing a schizophrenic Government in which one group is pursuing negotiations while another is going for intimidation?

1225 GMT: Ahmadinejad and the CIA. The politics around the President's "engagement" with the US, given the regime's simultaneous post-election use of "velvet coup" to crack down on opponents, is getting very confusing.

The Iranian Labor News Agency features an interview with conservative activist Mojtaba Shakeri, who says that  some of the journalists and scholars who met with Ahmadinejad, presumably during the President's trip to New York, were undoubtedly CIA operatives. Shakeri says this is common US practice and occurred in previous encounters with Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami.

For Mir Hossein Mousavi's Kalemeh, the interview is enough to become the sensational revelation that the President has met CIA officials. That, of course, is part of the current opposition campaign to question the President's duplicity in negotiating with the Obama Administration while denouncing the evils of the US.

1145 GMT: We have received a moving and thoughtful e-mail from an EA reader, offering an eyewitness summary of the importance of 13 Aban. It is posted in a separate entry.

1110 GMT: Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Prosecutor General who organised the first post-election trials and has been linked to the abuses at Kahrizak Prison, may be moving post for the second times in three months. Mortazavi became Iran's Deputy Prosecutor General but may now become head of the economic crimes division of the Justice Ministry.

1015 GMT: Green Publicity. Mir Hossein Mousavi has spoken with Jamaran, the newspaper of the Khomeini family, about the need for unity through adherence to the Constitution of the Islamic Republic. This is the second major interview Jamaran has featured in 72 hours, having spoken with former President Mohammad Khatami this weekend.

0945 GMT: Why are Bread Prices Rising? EA correspondent Mohammad Khiabani, who specialises in analysis on the Iranian economy, has a look at the recent increase in bread prices (see yesterday's updates), "This is not completely unrelated to subsidy removals, since merchants often increase prices in future expectation of inflation, which of course leads to inflation." This from the US Open Source Center:

In its November 8 issue, Hemayat said that the two traditional breads including Barbari and Sangak were being sold for 600 and 2,000 tomans, respectively (approximately 1,000 tomans = US $1). The newspaper said that, coming before the announcement of the new rates for bread, evidence shows that the increase in prices is more than what was officially declared. Officials had declared new rates for the traditional bread in the first week of November. Under this scheme the price per bread for unsubsidized Sangak is 400 tomans and in subsidized bakeries it is 175 tomans.

Jomhouri Eslami headlined: "New wave of expensive bread". The report pointed out that the offenders are overcharging while the authorities are only giving warnings. Jomhuri Islami reported the cost of bread in various Tehran neighborhoods. In southern Tehran Barbari costs 150 tomans, Pasadaran (northeast) 200 tomans, Saadatabad (northwest) 250 tomans, Shahrake Gharb (northwest) 300 tomans, Shahrake Omid (northeast) 500 tomans, Ketabi Square (north) 600 tomans.
As for the Sangak, which uses a more expensive flour and baking process, it was sold in Pasdaran for 1,000 tomans, Saadatabad 700 tomans, and Shahrake Gharb for 2,000 tomans.

0900 GMT: Iran's Telecommunications Privatised. Press TV reports:

An Iranian consortium has signed a deal to buy 50 percent plus one of the shares of Telecommunication Company of Iran (TCI) for around eight billion dollars. According to the deputy of Iran's Privatization Company, the related contract was signed Sunday with an Iranian consortium named Etemad Mobin Development that includes three firms.

"The historical deal was signed after an article was added to the $7.8 billion text of the contract according to which the buyer will be committed to the charter of TCI," said Mehdi Oghadaei.

0805 GMT: The muddle inside Iran on the nuclear negotiations and a useful but disturbing New York Times article this morning prompt us to offer an analysis, "Iran's Nuclear Programme: Washington's Unhelpful Misperceptions".

0640 GMT: Unsurprisingly, Iranian state media are playing up the meetings of President Ahmadinejad with Turkish President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. No details are offered, though Erdogan has recently been supportive of Iran's line on its nuclear programme, criticising its Israeli counterpart.

0610 GMT: An EA reader sends in a piece of interesting information about Internet trends inside Iran. The search volume for Mohsen Sazegara, a founder of the Revolutionary Guard who is now a fervent opponent of the regime from his exile in the US, is twice that for Mehdi Karroubi.

Not sure of the significance of this; any ideas would be welcome.

0600 GMT: We'll be trying to put the pieces together on where the Iranian Government is heading, even if those involved don't know where they fit.

President Ahmadinejad is in Ankara for the meeting of the economic committee of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, which raises the possibilities of the Government going into a holding phase or (more likely) others manoeuvring while Ahmadinejad is away.

One of the events which may or may not be significant in those calculations continues to be debated today. We initially speculated that Speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, travelled to Najaf in Iraq to see senior clerics because of the internal discussions in Tehran. EA correspondent Josh Mull has been putting the alternative that Larijani saw Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and others to encourage passage of the law for Iraqi elections in January, and other observers also back that view.

On the opposition side, there is a lot of Internet chatter this morning about Mehdi Karroubi's webcast yesterday, recounting the events of 13 Aban and criticising the Government's manipulation of the issue of relations with the US. And discussion is picking up over a planned demonstration at Shiraz University today.

The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping

NEW Iran: Question for the Regime "What's Your Next Punch?"
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

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2240 GMT: Confirmation that Ebrahim Amini, of the Etemade Melli party and a close relative of Mehdi Karroubi, has also been released from detention.

2150 GMT: Dr. Ali Tajernia, former MP and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released after 140 days in detention.

2145 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran has a Farsi-language update on detainees, including the transfer of 95 people arrested on 13 Aban from detention centres to Evin Prison.

2140 GMT: After the arrest of two students of Khaje Nasir University in Tehran, classmates went on hunger strike in front of the cafeteria and chanted, “Allahu Akhbar [God is Great]".

2130 GMT: Confirming indications we had received from EA sources in recent weeks, the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ezatullah Zarghami as head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for five years.

Zarghami had been considered vulnerable because of regime dissatisfaction with IRIB's output before and after the Presidential election, but a suitable replacement could not be arranged. Khamenei indicated this with a call for Zarghami to "take advantage of successful or unsuccessful experiences of the past five years to help this medium reach a better quality".

2125 GMT: Iran's Internal Nuclear Dispute. Press TV's website is now featuring the anti-talks line taken by high-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi (see 0845 GMT).



1648 GMT: Back-Channel US-Iran Talks? An EA reader has picked up what may be a significant unnoticed story in the nuclear negotiations. Peykeiran claims that President Ahmadinejad's close advisor and chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has secretly met Hooshang Amirahmadi, a US-based academic and the President of the American Iranian Council, in a villa in Gilan Province in northern Iran.

It is unclear why Amirahmadi is representing the Obama Administration and, if so, what message he could be conveying about the discussions on uranium enrichment. If true, however, the meeting would be a clear sign of a split between Ahmadinejad and high-profile conservatives/principlists calling for the deal to be abandoned.

1640 GMT: On the Los Angeles Times' blog "Babylon & Beyond", Borzou Daragahi has highlighted, "Defying supreme leader, reformist Khatami continues to question election" (see 1200, 1400, & 1418 GMT). It will be interesting to see if the Times prints this in Sunday's newspaper, maintaining a focus on Iran after 13 Aban.

One interesting note: Jamaran, where Khatami's remarks first appeared, is owned by the family of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

1620 GMT: Farhad Pouladi, the Iranian reporter for Agence France Presse detained on 13 Aban, has been freed.

1418 GMT: More on Khatami's Statement (see 1200 GMT). The former President has declared, “Senior authorities should accept that there is a crisis in the country" and allow all views to be expressed freely. He added, "We should find out who are ignoring the law for their own benefit, and those are the ones that should not be at centre of power."

Khatami continued his challenge to the Government as a defence of the true nature of the Islamic Republic:

If we truly return to the rule of law and those who are the guardians of the law don’t interpret the law based on their own personal views and don’t ignore the constitution,...[then the constitution will be the most important reference point. that can create unity in our society despite all the different views

We are still standing firm on our positions....In the Islamic Republic just as we defend Islam we are also defending people’s rights and votes. Those who are ignoring people’s votes and are willing to change them, are strangers to the Revolution and the Islamic Republic.

1408 GMT: And Now the Big News. We wrote earlier this morning that the regime seemed adrift and uncertain in how to respond to 13 Aban, but "tonight the President could try to change all the calculations above with an address to the nation".

Well, he won't because Ahmadinejad's speech tonight is postponed. This may be explained by the sudden announcement that the President is going to Turkey tomorrow (to discuss a re-arranged enrichment deal? --- see 0935 GMT), but pending a major breakthrough on that front, I'm going to read this as confirmation that the Government is a bit more than lost at the moment. This is the second postponement of the speech since Thursday's rallies.

1400 GMT: Regrouping Indeed. Former President Khatami is not just reasserting himself with statements questioning the election and the legitimacy of the Government (see 1200 GMT). He also met Mehdi Karroubi last night in his home.

Nominally, Khatami expressed sorrow and comforted Karroubi about the violence during the 13 Aban rallies, as did Abdollah Nouri, the interior minister in Khatami’s administration, and Bagher Golpaygani , son of the late Grand Ayatollah Golpaygani. But who is to say that other topics were not discussed?

1350 GMT: This is Important, but Why? I'm not sure what to make of this news yet, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has traveled to Najaf in Iraq to meet Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and other Shi'a clerics.

No clue yet as to topic of discussions. Earlier in the crisis, Sistani and his son had been in talks with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and Iranian clerics who have been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government. So is Larijani seeking support from Sistani and Iraq-based Ayatollahs to bolster the Government? Or the Supreme Leader? Or the position of the Supreme Leader against Ahmadinejad?

1340 GMT: Iranian activist "PersianBanoo" is updating with latest news on arrests from the 13 Aban protests.

1200 GMT: Khatami Rises. We have noted this week that the former President Mohammad Khatami has been relatively quiet, limiting himself to a general statement yesterday when he visited Karroubi  advisor Morteza Alviri.

Well, Khatami is back with a flourish today, declaring that the biggest "crime" of the current regime is its detachment from the values of the Revolution. And, despite warnings from the Supreme Leader, Khatami has renewed his criticism of the Presidential election.

1150 GMT: The Effect of Subsidy Cuts. Borzou Daragahi reports, from a source in Tehran, that bread prices in the capital have more than doubled.

0950 GMT: We've split off our first update today as a separate analysis, "Question for the Regime: What's Your Next Punch?"

0935 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal On? High-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi may be declaring the enrichment deal dead (see 0845 GMT), but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, is claiming that a compromise may have been found. He told Bloomberg News that Turkey could replace France as the third country involved, shaping the Iranium uranium enriched by Russia into metal plates.

So, is El Baradei just putting out desperate ideas to save the deal or, given that Press TV is featuring his comments, is there a section of the Iranian Government that is still committed to discussions?

0930 GMT: Really, Only 109? Azizollah Rajabzadeh, the head of Tehran police, has said, "Police arrested 109 people who created disorder and disturbed public order and security on the sideline of the rally on Wednesday. Some 62 of the detainees were jailed and the rest were released."

Of course, that number does not include those detained outside Tehran, but it's still a distance from the 400+ reported by Iranian human rights groups. So, presuming that Rajabzadeh has kept the number low, does that indicate: 1) the regime does not want to admit to the scale of the detentions, which would point to the real size of the rallies? 2) the regime is trying to show it was not that repressive, cutting against the image of the "velvet fist" it has been displaying? 3) nobody within the Government is in control of how to handle the outcome of 13 Aban?

0855 GMT: A "Correct" Press TV. We noted that, late on the night of 13 Aban and early the following day, someone at Press TV was putting out stories highlighting the opposition protests rather than those for the Government.

No more. This morning, Press TV's website has a story, "Iran Frees Three Detained Foreigners". We had that news yesterday; what is more significant is the framing of the article: "On Wednesday tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets as part of an annual event to mark the storming of the American embassy in Tehran more than three decades ago."

So that's where the "foreigners" were arrested? Well, it must be, since Press TV --- in contrast to its earlier coverage --- dares not mention the Green rallies that were taking place elsewhere in the capital and throughout Iran.

0845 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal Off? Iranian Students News Agency is featuring a comment by the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, “Iran is not to give any of its 1200 kilograms fuel to the other party to receive 20 percent (enriched) fuel and whether gradually or at once, this will not be done and is called off.” Boroujerdi insisted that Iran must and would find another way to get uranium, "Mr [Ali Asghar] Soltanieh [Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency] is in talks to find an approach for the issue.”

Boroujerdi's burying of the Vienna deal for Russia to enrich Iran's uranium follows his speech introducing Friday Prayers, in which he denounced protesters for mouthing the words of the Voice of America.

The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

NEW Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
NEW Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
NEW Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
Iran Document: Ayatollah Montazeri’s Interview on Eve of 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “A Major Blow to Khamenei’s Authority”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “The Green Wave Has Bounced Back”
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 4th Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 3rd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 2nd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 1st Set)

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1905 GMT: Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi says two Germans and a Canadian, detained on 13 Aban, have been released. It is unclear if the Canadian is one of the four foreign journalists who were arrested (see 1155 GMT).

1845 GMT: From the Streets. We've posted an eyewitness account by Persian  Umpire, which can be compared with that of our correspondent Mr Azadi, of the 13 Aban demonstrations.

1820 GMT: MediaFail of the Day. Even by the standards set by the Islamic Republic News Agency for "information", this is Gold-Medal journalism. From Mehdi Karroubi's son, Hossein Karroubi:

On Thursday [5 November], IRNA released an interview said to be with me which was completely false and lies. In these comments IRNA claimed that I have said Mr. Mousavi was not brave enough to attend the November 4th protest and that I have accused him of lying.

There is no need to explain that because of Mr. Mousavi’s and Mr. Karoubi’s character and of course their bravery that we know about, they will continue to lead the Green movement of Iran with unity in their actions and they will not give up until we reach the goals of the movement and eliminate the power of liars.These kinds of lies will only make the strong determination of Mr. Mousavi in fight against lies even stronger and will further prove that he has chosen his mission in this fight justly.

1725 GMT: What does "Obama, You're With Them or You're With Us" Mean? Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has an interesting article, "What Does Iran's Green Movement Want from Obama?".  Assuming those interviewed are representative of the movement, the message is: 1) of course, no US interference but 2) no eagerness for a nuclear deal with the Ahmadinejad Government and 3) condemnation of Iran's human rights abuses with inclusion of the issue in any US talks with Tehran.

1550 GMT: More on Friday Prayers (see 1145 GMT). The Los Angeles Times has a lengthy summary of today's service in Tehran, from which a couple of interesting twists emerge.

The first is an apparent "concession" in the hard line normally set out by Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami. He began with his portrayal of a small, foreign-backed group trying to disrupt the pro-Government rallies on 13 Aban: "Out of the hundreds and thousands of people who take to the streets, only one or two thousand shouted [for the Greens]...."Americans must not be happy, as there is no red carpet waiting for them." And he pressed the evil sponsor theme: "My brothers and sisters who have fallen in the wrong and incorrect track, look who is supporting you, those who were named by the late imam [Ayatollah Khomeini] as 'blasphemous' and [whose] Islam was called 'Americanized Islam'. The miserable monarchists are supporting you."

Yet Khatami then offered a way back to the fold, "What is wrong if you follow the mainstream of the nation? Come back to the embrace of the nation and the nation will accept your repenting and remorse....Of course the criminals’ cases are different and they should be punished."

That apparent sign of reconcilation was not matched by an opening for the US. To the contrary, Khatami was so loud in his denunciation of Washington that it heightens suspicions that Iran --- possibly against the line set out by President Ahmadinejad --- is walking out on the nuclear talks. Khatami declared, "Since the 1953 coup against [Mohammad] Mosaddegh, the U.S. has done nothing except treason against our nation, and since the beginning of our revolution, as [Khomeini] said, we can compile a book about the crimes committed by the US", and he brought the story to the present, with the Obama Administration instigating ethnic groups and releasing $50 million for "toppling our system". Khatami concluded, "As long as the U.S. will not give up its arrogant character, our nation is not going to be engaged in satanic negotiations."

Khatami's line was introduced by Alaedin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Affairs Committee, who denounced protesters for following the line of the Voice of America: "The leaders [of the opposition] used to be high-ranking officials. Now, they repeat the same slogans."

So, if Khatami is speaking for others higher up in the regime, is this an attempt to ease the internal conflict by offering an olive branch to the "less serious" offenders? And will this be matched by a linking of the "more serious" offenders --- say, the leaders of the opposition movement --- to the US, even if that means a suspension of engagement with the "West"?

Most importantly, is this shift in strategy a sign of weakness or strength? I'm voting for the former.

1430 GMT: Will The Regime Break The Opposition? Following our previous entry, Mr Smith checks in, "We may have underestimated the police resolve: Iranian human rights groups are now reporting that no less than 400 people have been picked up in the streets on 13 Aban and are now in Evin Prison."

I do not think we missed this. Rather, we may be seeing an important juncture in the post-election crisis. As we have noted over the last 48 hours, the Ahmadinejad Government may be lost for a political strategy, but it can still try to use blunt force to survive by pounding the opposition into submission.

1255 GMT: The Government Acts. Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has confirmed that reformists Ali Tajernia, Saeed Shariati, and Ebrahim Amini will be tried on Saturday. Ahmad Zeidabadi and Behzad Nabavi will be in court on Sunday, and Mohammad Atrianfar will appear on Monday.

An Iranian activist is offering running updates on the latest developments with detentions and forthcoming court hearings.

1245 GMT: What Has Mohammad Khatami Been Doing? The former President, who has kept a low profile in recent days including 13 Aban, has resurfaced with a visit to Morteza Alviri, the former mayor of Tehran and Mehdi Karoubi’s representative on the committee to investigate detainee abuses, in his home. Alviri was arrested in a raid on Karroubi's offices in September and released on bail last week.

Khatami offered general remarks, praising Alviri's courage and long service to Iran.

1200 GMT: I can't help thinking that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has been seriously distracted by last month's bombing in southeastern Iran.

Brigadier General Hussein Salami, the IRGC's Deputy Commander, has given a lengthy interview to Fars News about the threat from Jundallah. He goes on at length about foreign support of the Baluch insurgents but this is the headline claim: Jundallah leader Abdolmalek Rigi was arrested in September but was released after interference from Pakistani intelligence services.

It's not a question of the attention that the Revolutionary Guard is now paying to the southeastern situation rather than to the internal challenge. Allegations like these are bound to complicate the Government's relations with neighbours such as Pakistan.

1155 GMT: Agence France Presse reports that four journalists --- two Canadian, 1 Japanese, and 1 Iranian working for AFP --- were arrested on 13 Aban.

1145 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, known for his fierce denunciation of post-election opposition, led the prayers in Tehran, and he did not ease up on the evil of a Green movement led by the United States.

1. Observers should not mistake a "small group" of agitators backed by Washington as the message of 13 Aban, given the "flood surge" of people who came out for the Iranian nation, Government, and Supreme Leader.

2. Iran's great success in nuclear energy is being led by Ayatollah Khamenei. The West "says we should build confidence but we do not have confidence in you".

3. Give us the uranium for Iran's medical research reactor. Now.

4. The US is arrogant, but Iran will never negotiate with evil.

1120 GMT: Nuclear Face-Off. With news from inside Iran slow this morning, the Iranian Government has kept attention on the international talks. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has maintained on IRIB television, "The Islamic Republic examines all the proposals. We have examined this proposal, we have some technical and economic considerations [which need to be addressed]." Mottaki's remarks were an indirect response to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's insistence that the draft arrangement on uranium enrichment would not be changed.

Mottaki has also used remarks to the Islamic Republic News Agency to poke at the "superficial" comments of the French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner.

0935 GMT: Really, I'm Going to Speak...but Football First. Fars News Agency reports:

President Ahmadinejad's speech to the nation has been postponed because of Thursday night's World Cup football match between Iran and Uruguay.

The President will speak after 9 p.m. on Saturday on the nuclear issue, the economy, and in particular information technology.

Postponed because of the football? Call me cynical, but postponed because of uncertainty and disarray is a less dramatic explanation. The original story was that the President would appear on Thursday, irrespective of any prospect that he might be overshadowed by a sporting event; the delay points to a Government that is trying to figure out how to respond to the show of opposition on 13 Aban.

0825 GMT: Following the assessments by Mr Smith and by Chris Emery of the outcomes of 13 Aban's marches, EA correspondent Josh Shahryar offers his assessment of the day's events and their political impact.

0735 GMT: Balancing our criticism of the rush by some back to the haven of Iran as Nuclear Threat, other newspapers do keep an eye on the opposition and internal developments. The Huffington Post has a feature on Mahmoud Vahidnia, the mathematics student who challenged the Supreme Leader during a speech last week. And The New York Times publishes a commentary by Nazenin Ansari and Jonathan Paris on "The Message from Tehran".

0700 GMT: An Enduring America reader wrote with concern a few hours ago, "Today was suspiciously quiet. No videos coming out and no statements....I’m not sure what to make of it." Josh Shahryar's excellent analysis, posted in a separate entry, offers an answer. I would add: 1) this lull happened after previous large demonstrations of opposition, as on 30 July and 18 September; 2) a pause was to be expected after the rush of energy and fortitude on 13 Aban; 3) the movement is already gathering itself for the next show of defiance, with planning beginning for Students Day on 16 Azar (7 December).

That's not to say that other folks are already leaving the party. The Washington Post exits with great haste to its priority of the nuclear issue. It features an article claiming, from the ever-present unnamed official, "Iran is demanding full delivery of reactor fuel before it gives up its stash of low-enriched uranium and has balked at further efforts to hold international talks on its nuclear program." That, however, is fair-and-balanced reporting next to the paper's editorial calling for an immediate cutoff of talks and twisting 13 Aban to fit that demand:

On Wednesday, the opposition protesters chanted: "Obama, Obama -- either you're with them, or with us." Sooner rather than later, Mr. Obama ought to respond to those messages.

The rush away from Iran to the nuclear front is likely to be accelerated by an "exclusive" in The Guardian this morning, "Iran tested advanced nuclear warhead design – secret report". Apparently "Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design...known as a 'two-point implosion' device," and "nuclear experts" find this "breathtaking".

Translation: a "Western" official (US, European, or from the International Atomic Energy Agency) decided --- from genuine concern, a desire to wreck the enrichment talks, or both --- to leak another headline from the controversial 2008 IAEA report on Iran's nuclear programme. Without seeing the actual text, it is impossible to know the significance of the alleged warhead design. Indeed, two sentences deep in a side analysis in The Guardian tip off that this is far from an "imminent threat" story:

Most but not all of the material in the dossier relates back to the period before 2004. It does not necessarily conflict with the US National Intelligence Estimate two years ago, that found it likely that Iran suspended weaponisation work in 2003.

That, I suspect, will not deter media from racing to panic stations over the claim.