The Latest from Iran (24 November): A Larijani-Rafsanjani Alliance?

1910 GMT: Prosecuting Journalists. Reporters without Borders has published a summary of latest news on journalists who have been convicted and arrested (and even one who was released).

1900 GMT: Some Good News for Mahmoud. President Ahmadinejad and his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, signed 13 cooperation agreements on trade, energy, stocks and banking, agriculture, news agenices, technology, culture, and visa requirements.

1735 GMT: Mortazavi Mystery Over? After days of rumours that he was in Evin Prison, former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi has appeared at the memorial service for Ali Kordan, the former Minister of Interior who died this weekend.

1725 GMT: Isolating Rafsanjani? Division of opinion here amongst EA staff: one colleague is saying Hashemi Rafsanjani is a spent force while another is arguing strongly that "the Shark" is far from finished and about to make another move.

If the latter, those in the regime opposed to Rafsanjani (and possibly worried about the possibility of his working in combination with Ali Larijani) will try to block it. Having dismissed him from the rota for Friday Prayers in Tehran and the Qods Day Prayer, authorities are now taking away the Eid al-Adha Prayer from Rafsanjani and giving it to Ahmad Khatami.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Protest at Qazvin University (23 November)
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Latest Iran Video: Protest at Khaje Nasir University (22 November)
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1715 GMT: Back from teaching break to find that Mousavi activist Majid Zamani has been released on bail.

1335 GMT: Your Daily University Demonstration. Video is now in of Monday's protest at Qazvin University; we've posted it in a separate entry.

1320 GMT: Atrianfar Sentenced. A reliable Iranian activist reports that journalist Mohammad Atrianfar's sentence, passed this weekend, was six years in jail and that he --- like former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and student organisation leader Ahmad Zeidabadi --- has been released on bail while the sentence is appealed.

The same source claims that student activist Atafeh Nabavi has been sentenced to four years.

1230 GMT: A Persian-language site has published the names of more than 70 students who have been detained recently by the regime.

1100 GMT: Mr Smith Gets It Right. Back from a research seminar on Chomsky to find that Iran's Foreign Ministry has opened the door a bit on the talks on uranium enrichment:

Iran is not opposed to sending its low-enriched uranium (LEU) abroad but wants 100 percent guarantees of receiving higher-enriched fuel in return for a medical research reactor...."Nobody in Iran ever said that we are against sending 3.5 percent-enriched uranium abroad," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said. "If we say we are looking for 100 percent guaranteees, it means that we want 3.5 percent enriched uranium to be sent out under such circumstances that we make sure that we will receive the 20 percent fuel."

That statement seems to bear out the analysis from EA's Mr Smith, offered last week: "[Iran's proposed] arrangement would allay Iranian fears that its uranium supply might be held indefinitely by some foreign party, including Russia."

0840 GMT: Today's Bang the War Drum Moment. The Guardian of London reaches far this morning in its presentation of all shades of opinion. Benny Morris, once a good historian and now a loud polemicist, wrings his hands over an Israeli military attack on Iran: "Obama will soon have to decide whether to give Israel a green light, and how brightly it will shine."

I think Morris would like the missiles to fly but he's passed the buck to the US President because of...

...the likely devastating repercussions –-- regional and global. These will probably include massive rocketing of Israel's cities and military bases by the Iranians and Hezbollah (from Lebanon), and possibly by Hamas (from Gaza). This could trigger land wars in Lebanon and Gaza as well as a protracted long-range war with Iran. It could see terrorism by Iranian agents against Israeli (and Jewish) targets around the world; a steep increase in world oil prices, which will rebound politically against Israel; and Iranian action against American targets in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Gulf. More generally, Islamist terrorism against western targets could only grow.

0830 GMT: As for Dissent.... In this morning's New York Times, Robert Worth picks up on several developments in recent weeks to summarise the regime's efforts to defeat the opposition:

Stung by the force and persistence of the protests, the government appears to be starting a far more ambitious effort to discredit its opponents and re-educate Iran’s mostly young and restive population. In recent weeks, the government has announced a variety of new ideological offensives.

It is implanting 6,000 Basij militia centers in elementary schools across Iran to promote the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, and it has created a new police unit to sweep the Internet for dissident voices. A company affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards acquired a majority share in the nation’s telecommunications monopoly this year, giving the Guards de facto control of Iran’s land lines, Internet providers and two cellphone companies. And in the spring, the Revolutionary Guards plan to open a news agency with print, photo and television elements.

The government calls it “soft war,” and Iran’s leaders often seem to take it more seriously than a real military confrontation.

0815 GMT: Rooz Online are pressing the idea of co-operation between Ali Larijani and Hashemi Rafsanjani against the President. An analysis has highlighted Larijani's defense of Rafsanjani as a "pillar of the revolution" and, as we have in a separate entry, contrasted this with a view of Ali Reza Zakani's speech on the election and the National Unity Plan as an attack on Larijani.

0730 GMT: The US View of the Green Movement. Over the last two weeks, we have had intense debate over Washington's perception, inside and outside the US Government, of the Iranian opposition. Amongst this was a discussion of how the American elites might view filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf, with his recent talk at the Carnegie Endowment, as the spokesman for the Green Wave.

Interesting then to see Robin Wright, one of the top US-based journalists on Iran and the Middle East, highlight Makhmalbaf's speech and declare, with one quick qualification, "Iran's Green Movement Reaches Out to U.S."

0720 GMT: Nuclear Rhetoric or a Powerful Signal? Fars News' English-language site is putting a clear message on top of Deputy Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mohammadi's comments on Sunday: "Leader Has Final Say on Iran-US Talks". Mohammadi said in a roundtable at Tehran's Amir Kabir University:

The negotiation with the US is not possible without the permission by Imam and the Leader, and any kind of talks with the US must be permitted by the Supreme Leader. No Iranian President or Foreign Minister has had or will have the permission to act on establishment of relations with the US.

So is Mohammadi's declaration just the formal reiteration that Ayatollah Khamenei is atop the Iranian system? Is it a reassurance that any show of engagement with the US and Iranian proposals have the backing of the Supreme Leader? Or is this a message to Ahmadinejad and pro-deal allies to step away from the discussions?

0710 GMT: The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has stepped up its line of US and Pakistani support of the Baluch insurgent group Jundallah, including last month's deadly suicide bombing in Baluchistan.

Addressing IRGC commanders in Isfahan, Brigadier General Gholam-Reza Soleimani said the US Central Intelligence Agency has been spending millions of dollars in its campaign against the Islamic Republic: "The CIA makes a contribution of more than one billion dollar each year to Pakistan's intelligence agency (Inter-Service Intelligence) as part of a campaign to eliminate individuals with anti-U.S. mentalities." He added that there was evidence of ISI and US involvement in many terrorist incidents in Iran, including the October bombing that claimed several IRGC commanders amongst more than 40 dead: "There exists documented evidence of links between (Abdolmalek) Rigi's terrorist group (Jundallah) and the CIA."

The Latest on Iran (23 November): Releases, Rumours, and Battles

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NEW Latest Iran Video: Protest at Khaje Nasir University (22 November)
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Video and English Text: Mousavi Interview with Kalemeh (21 November)
The Latest from Iran (22 November): Abtahi Sentenced, Ahmadinejad Scrambles

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2030 GMT: Punishment Going Up. Reports now indicate that Ahmad Zeidabadi, whose sentencing we reported earlier (1620 GMT), received a six-year prison sentence. In addition, he will spend five years in exile in the northeastern city of Gonabad and be banned from civil activities for life. Bail for his freedom while the case is appealed is $500,000.

2025 GMT: Ahmadinejad in Brazil. That's right, it's a second continent today on the I'm a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour (see 0635 GMT), though there is little more than a picture to report.

1925 GMT: More on Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Khabar Online (the online version of the newspaper which either chose to close today in favour of Web publication or which has been suspended by the Government) is schizophrenic over a possible bust-up between the Parliament and the President.

The English-language version goes to great pains to deny tries to curb talk of a rift, with MPs blaming media and anti-Ahmadinejad opposition for the rumours. The Persian-language site, however, highlights a speech by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani warning against "dictatorship" and defending former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.



1645 GMT: We've posted a video of yesterday's demonstration, one in a series of ongoing protests, at Khaje Nasir University.

And it looks like we might be covering a major emerging story of the conflict between Iran's Parliament, specifically Speaker Ali Larijani, and President Ahmadinejad. The first installment has been posted; more to come after we take a break for academic duties.

1620 GMT: Journalist and reformist activist Ahmad Zeidabadi has reportedly been sentenced to five years in prison and released on $350,000 bail while the verdict is appealed.

1535 GMT: Here's Why Obama's Engagement Lives. Skip the headlines in the "mainstream" US press and go to Halifax, Canada, where Washington's officials are urging Iran to "engage" the West.

On the surface, Ellen Tauscher, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security talked tough to the delegates at the security forum, "We would prefer that the Iranian regime follow through on the opportunity to engage....[Tehran] asked for engagement with the United States. It has it. Now what is it going to do? Is it going to stand up and say that they're going to take our deal... or are they going to use some other flimsy excuse to duck."

The overriding point is, however, that Tauscher's comments were based on a continued engagement rather than cut-off of talks with Iran. Why might that be? The security forum's main item for discussion, Afghanistan, is the blunt answer. Iran is the prevailing outside power in western Afghanistan, so it has a place in the future American plans for the country.

So while some table-thumpers at the gathering like former Bush National Security Advisor, Stephen Hadley, hinted that Israel may strike Iran, don't be fooled. The Obama Administration, caught up in its Afghan conundrum, cannot afford renewed hostility with Tehran.

1525 GMT: More Iran-Russia conflict. The tension between Tehran and Moscow, which is a key motive for the Iranian counter-proposal on uranium enrichment, emerged again today. Iran's deputy foreign minister Manouchehr Mohammadi declared, “The problems regarding the Bushehr plant has a technical as well as a political aspect. The Russians… want to launch the plant under certain conditions, but we will not surrender to them."

1255 GMT: Not Big Politics, Just a Baha'i Temple. Appears that Hamshahri was not closed because of a major political move within the Iranian regime but because it included a tourist advertisement showing a Baha'i temple.

1220 GMT: More Bust-Up, Another Paper Banned. Now it's the principlist newspaper Hamshahri which has been banned.

However, an Iranian activist now reports that Hamshahri will be suspended for only a few hours and will likely reappear today.

1050 GMT: A Shot at Larijani? The word is spreading that Khabar, the principlist newspaper close to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has been closed by Government order this morning. I'm sensing a real bust-up between Larijani and the allies of President Ahmadinejad (see 0555 GMT and the separate entry on MP Ali Reza Zamani's revelations).

1025 GMT: Rumour of the Day (Denied). On Sunday we noted that questions were being raised about the whereabouts of former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi, unseen in public for two months, with the most provocative rumour that he was in Evin Prison.

Still no verification of those claims, but at least one conservative Iranian website has gone to the trouble of noticing and denying them. Parcham says Mortazavi, now one of Iran's Deputy Prosecutor Generals, is being reclusive because he is waiting to be confirmed as the new division chief handling financial crimes.

0905 GMT: Bluster. Of course, even if the air-defence show is propaganda (see 0810 GMT), that doesn't mean the Revolutionary Guard will do it quietly (especially if, as I think, this is being done to undercut those in the Iranian establishment pushing for a deal or, alternatively, to cover up any impression of "weakness" from such a bargain).

"One step out of line and Israeli warplanes will be completely destroyed," IRGC Air Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh declared. "Even if they escape our sophisticated defense system, they will never see their bases again; because our surface-to-surface missiles are on their marks to target Israeli military bases before the dust settles."

0810 GMT: Shrug. The Washington Post devotes its Iran article this morning to Sunday's air defence exercise, loudly announced by Iran's military --- not surprising, given the supposed drama and the "military warning to Israel" theme in the Post's sub-headline.

We had not even bothered to mention the exercise, which was clearly a propaganda move by Iranian commanders rather than a significant military development. If there is any importance here, it lies in the relationship to the more important story: Iran's uranium enrichment talks with the "West". Is the Revolutionary Guard fighting back against those Iranian leaders who want a deal --- which is still very much on the table, despite the Post's limited knowledge of it --- through their aggressive posturing?

0800 GMT: Yesterday Pedestrian posted a most interesting speech from pro-Government, high-ranking member of Parliament Ali Reza Zamani which is a virtual admission of election fraud. We've put up the blog, as well as our analysis, in a separate entry.

0635 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's I'm a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour has opened in Gambia with talk of expanding investments in industry and agriculture.

0555 GMT: Mohammad Javad Larijani, the high-ranking judiciary official, has stepped beyond his official brief to intervene on the nuclear issue. He declared Sunday, "Iran has "many reasons 2 distrust West, but they have no reason 2 distrust us," and added:

If the West won't sell 20% enriched uranium [for the Tehran medical research reactor], we will produce it ourselves. To produce 20% enriched uranium we must change orientation of centrifuges. We know how & we will do it.

MJ Larijani, joins his brothers, Speaker of Parliament Ali and head of judiciary Sadegh (who also went beyond his designated position to speak out), in criticising the Vienna deal for uranium enrichment. However, the question is left open: are the Larijanis wiling to accept the Iran Government's counter-offer of a "swap" inside the country?

0545 GMT: For the opposition, Sunday's headline event was confirmation of the release of Mohammad Ali Abtahi from more than five months in detention. The photograph of Abtahi and his family is one of the most joyous pictures amdist and despite the post-12 June conflict.

It should not be forgotten that Abtahi was sentenced to six years in jail and is only free on a very high ($700,000) bail while he appeals. Others were also sentenced this weekend, including the journalist Mohammad Atrianfar, although the prison terms are not yet known.

Still, the symbolism and impact of Abtahi's release should be noted. As the Green movement tries to withstand yet more arrests of activists and student leaders and prepares for the 16 Azar (7 December) protests, the freeing of the former Vice President --- accompanied by his promise to resume blogging --- is a welcome boost.

It also may be a sign that there may be a limited fightback within the regime against the power of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. More and more evidence is accumulating, as in journalist Maziar Bahari's account released this weekend, of the Revolutionary Guard's key, perhaps dominant, role in overseeing detentions and eclipsing the power of other agencies like the Ministry of Intelligence and Iran's judiciary. In recent weeks, high-ranking judiciary officials and members of Parliament have been demanding a process to "wrap up" the detentions with formal sentences; since last Tuesday, it seems that the trials and verdicts have accelerated.

The Latest from Iran (22 November): Abtahi Freed on Bail, Ahmadinejad Scrambles

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Video and English Text: Mousavi Interview with Kalemeh (21 November)
The Latest from Iran (21 November): Mousavi, Khomeini, and Ahmadinejad

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2125 GMT: Activists on Twitter are reporting the arrest of blogger/journalist Sasan Aghaei.

1940 GMT: Karroubi's Latest Letter. Mehdi Karroubi has written to Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie and Habib-allah Askaroladi, the secretary general of the conservative Mo'talefe party, posting the letter on his Tagheer website.

The letter is a renewal of Karroubi's campaign for the truth on reports of abuse of detainees, responding to the attempts of Mohseni-Ejeie and Askaroladi to cast doubt on his claims and motives. He repeats his earlier account of meetings with the three-member judiciary panel that was appointed to consider the charges. In particular, he states that, while he raised the case of Saeedeh Pouraghai but warned that it might be false. (The claims that Pouraghai had been raped and killed by security forces are now discounted. Some believe the case was "manufactured" by the regime so it would discredit the opposition when the falsehood emerged.)

Karroubi also challenges Askaroladi's claims that the Green movement is financed by millions of dollars from the US Government and demands that Mousavi and Karroubi "must be dealt with".

1740 GMT: The Visits Begin. Former President Mohammad Khatami has visited Mohammad Ali Abtahi in his home.

1625 GMT: Rumour of Day "Mortazavi in Evin Prison". Norooz claims that Saeed Mortazavi, who was Tehran's Prosecutor General in the early part of the post-election crisis, has been spotted in prison garb at Evin Prison. The website claims that Mortazavi has not been seen in public in two months and raises the possibility that he will disappear via "suicide", just like Kahrizak prison doctor Ramin Pourandarjan. (Norooz also sees parallels with the case of Said Emami, the intelligence operative and deputy minister found dead in his cell a decade ago. He was blamed for a series of murders after his death.)

1610 GMT: Abtahi Freed. The picture of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi provides happy confirmation of his release on bail after 160 days in detention (see 0735 and1405 GMT).



Abtahi has also posted on his blog. He says he will soon return to updating the blog on a daily basis. He hopes for the freedom of his fellow inmates, especially Abdollah Ramezanzadeh and Mohsen Safai-Farahani, to whom he bade a tearful farewell this morning.

1525 GMT: Economic Pressure. Following up our initial item this morning on the pressures on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (0735 GMT), Presidential candidate and secretary of the Expediency Council, Mohsen Rezaei , has criticised the President's proposed legislation on subsidies and taxes. “As a result of the new law, the effect of the global economy on the domestic economy will be more than before,” Rezaei wrote to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

Rezaei suggested the formation of an independent council of financial experts to study the impact of the bill on the lives of Iranians.

1520 GMT: Today's University Protests. There has been chatter throughout the day of clashes between students and security at Khaje Nasir University, and a short video has been posted of the demonstration at Tehran University.

1505 GMT: More Tehran Signals on the Nuke Deal. Ali Ashar Soltanieh, Iran's Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, has reiterated his comments (see 0955 GMT) about Iran's desire to negotiate an enrichment deal, provided it keeps uranium within the country. “We are ready for talks with a positive approach, but the main issue is a guarantee for the timely supply of fuel for Iran's medical needs." Soltanieh referred to Iran's grievances with France and Russia over delays and failures to fulfil previous contracts: “Considering Iran's lack of confidence towards the West regarding the past nuclear activities, we need to have these guarantees."

1405 GMT: Abtahi Update. Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was sentenced to a six-year prison term yesterday (see 0735 GMT), has been released on a bail of 700 million tomans (about $700,000) while the sentence is appealed.

1035 GMT: The Election was Most Fair. Really. Fars News offers acres of space to Ali Zakani, a member of the six-member Parliamentary committee that "investigated" the Presidential election, to defend the outcome and the committee's proceedings.

Zakani details meetings with Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohsen Rezaei and with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. All of this is to establish that the election was fair and to indicate that any "fraud" is on the part of those challenging President Ahmadinejad's legitimacy.

0955 GMT: The Government Wants a Nuclear Deal. Can't be a clearer signal than this:

Iran's ambassador to the UN nuclear watchdog [International Atomic Energy Agency] says over 200 hospitals in the country urgently need higher-enriched uranium. As a timely reminder that obtaining higher-enriched uranium is a matter of great urgency for Iran, Ali-Asghar Soltaniyeh said that the fuel is required for the Tehran nuclear reactor, which is designed to produce radioisotopes used by Iranian hospitals for medical treatment.

He warned that if Iran's proposal to purchase the fuel from abroad falls through, the country would have no choice but to enrich uranium to the required level of 20 percent...."We need the fuel because more than 200 hospitals depend on it."

o935 GMT: A Clerical Putsch? We held off on noting this story, but as a sharp-eyed EA reader has raised it.... Rooz Online summarises reports circulating in Iran:

Following the escalation of protests by Iran’s senior ayatollahs against the regime, some members of the Qom Seminary Teachers Association (the most important organization of clerics affiliated with the regime) are planning to present a new list of “grand ayatollahs” under the supervision of Mohammad Yazdi, Ahmad Jannati and Mesbah Yazdi....

According to rumors, the new list of grand ayatollahs will include people such as Jafar Sobhani, Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, Khoshvaght, and a number of other ayatollahs approved by the regime. Credible reports indicate that prominent grand ayatollahs such as Montazeri and [Bayat] Zanjani will not have a place on the list....[Nor will] Dastgheib.

I still think the key word in the story is "rumors". The significance of the article is that it shows the concern of the regime and its supporters over the ongoing (and possibly escalating) resistance from Qom. A radical change to the list of Grand Ayatollahs, especially when it is clearly based on political rather than religious considerations, is likely to stoke that resistance.

0740 GMT: A depressing end to Saturday for the opposition movement, as Mowj-e-Sabz claimed that former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi has been sentenced to six years in prison. Abtahi, as one of the highest-profile detainees, was seen by the Government as a potential asset for propaganda. His televised "confession" was one of the low-lights of the first Tehran trial, and the regime even tried (briefly) to have Abtahi blog from prison to offset criticisms about the conditions of detainees.

Now it appears that the Government has given up on that use of Abtahi, and it has also decided that the advantage lies in keeping him in jail rather than extending a hand to the reformists through his release.

0735 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has always cut a confident, even cocky figure. And when challenged, he fights back.

So it's no surprise that the President would "go big" with a tour covering five days in five countries: Brazil, Venezuela, and Bolivia in South America and Senega land Gambia in Africa. He can finally project himself as a world leader, having been shut out by almost every head of state in the first three months after the disputed election. He can play on the assured support of Venezuela for Iran's nuclear programme and foreign policy. He can present Iran's expanding influence with the African leg of the trip. And no doubt there will be more than a few words on oil and natural gas, as well as the signing of commercial agreements.

Don't let this fool you, however. Ahmadinejad's travels are also a deliberate distraction from the homefront. For all the questions over the future course of the opposition, for all the "busted flush" of the National Unity Plan, the President has not been able to nail down a secure position.

The photographs of Ahmadinejad's visit to Tabriz are more than symbolic. Whether or not most Iranians support the Green movement, they are not turning out in the 63% claimed by the President in the June vote. The conservative/principlist politicians are rumbling again in Parliament, especially over Ahmadinejad's economic proposals, and the clerics in Qom are discussing and planning.

The President returns from his journey at the end of November. At that point, it will be just over a week to the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December).

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Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)
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The Latest from Iran (4 November — 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

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2135 GMT: For What It's Worth. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has stated sharply, possibly in response to Mohammad El Baradei's revelation that the International Atomic Energy Agency is looking for a compromise for the Vienna third-party enrichment agreement, "This is a pivotal moment for Iran. We urge Iran to accept the agreement as proposed and we will not alter it and we will not wait forever."

Whether the US Government holds this line, effectively suspending engagement, remains to be seen. It should be noted, however, that the "late October" window for the meeting of the 5+1 powers with Iran to seal a deal --- originally projected at the start of October when direct discussions between the US and Iran resumed in Geneva --- has come and gone.

1900 GMT: Shutting Away Journalists. Reporters Without Borders writes, “At least 100 journalists and cyber-dissidents have been arrested" in Iran since 12 June "and 23 of them are still being held. More than 50 journalists have left the country and those who have stayed are subject to constant harassment.”

The organization notes that, in addition to the arrest of Agence France Press correspondent Farhad Pouladi (see 1045 GMT), Nafiseh Zareh Kohan, a journalist who writes for various pro-reform newspapers, and blogger and human rights activist Hassin Assadi Zidabadi were arrested yesterday.

1850 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. It looks like Iran will get the all-clear on the second uranium enrichment plant near Qom, which caused such a fuss when it was "outed" by Western countries in September after Tehran notified the International Atomic Energy Agency.

IAEA head Mohammad El Baradei said inspectors found "nothing to be worried about" in their visit in late October. "The idea was to use it as a bunker under the mountain to protect things," in contrast to the open-air enrichment plant at Natanz, El-Baradei said. "It's a hole in a mountain."

El Baradei also said he was examining possible compromises to resolve the draft Vienna agreement on third-party enrichment, which Tehran balked at signing.

1830 GMT: Pedestrian, who often drops in on the EA comment section, offers an overview of 13 Aban and ponders, "What Now?":

Mousavi keeps referring to “social networks” and “communities”. The trick with that is that it makes individuals much more vulnerable. If people were to begin organizing events in their own community, they would be giving away their privacy: their address and their name could be identified. Any antagonist in the neighborhood could easily blow up their efforts. Before the revolution, people met in mosques. Each neighborhood has a mosque. Now, at least from rumors we hear, people might have even been held up in mosques. Whether these rumors are true or not, mosques are no longer an alternative (and amen to that!).

Be it in schools, in neighborhoods, at work - it seems to me as if smaller group activity may be a better alternative from now on.

1645 GMT: Catching Up. We've finally had a moment to post the English translation of a written interview with Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, on the eve of 13 Aban, on the 1979 US Embassy takeover, Iran's relations with the US, Russia, and China, and the state of the Iranian Government.

We're also posting the best of a steady stream of videos coming into us.

1545 GMT: A Crisis for Khamenei? Chris Emery, responding to this morning's analysis by Mr Smith, asserts that 13 Aban was "a major blow to Khamenei's authority". (We also have Mr Smith's reply.)

1345 GMT: Radio Zamaneh reports that families of those detained yesterday have clashed with security forces in front of the Vozara detention centre. It is also reported that the families blocked a bus taking detainees from Vozara to Evin Prison.

1340 GMT: The Regime Strategy. I think the response to 13 Aban may now becoming evident. While there is uncertainty over President Ahmadinejad's speech (some outlets quote Fars News as saying it will be on Saturday) and the general political response, the Government persists in trying to break the Green movement through arrests. A reliable Iranian source is passing on steady information about the detentions of student activists.

1330 GMT: Yes, State Media Setback. A follow-up to our 0745 entry: Press TV is now posting about a demand from Al-Alam, Iran's state Arab-language satellite channel, for an explanation from its Saudi hosts as to why it was taken off the air.

1300 GMT: Not So Weak. In a sign that the regime will press ahead with a heavy hand to deter opposition, it has been announced that Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, will appear in Revolutionary Court on Sunday. This follows yesterday's hearing for two other post-election detainees, former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and journalist Hengameh Shahidi.

1050 GMT: Weak. What is striking about the "official" reaction to the 13 Aban protests is its relative lack of strength. Because they are not acknowledging and indeed featuring the opposition, as Press TV has, other outlets seem to be stumbling in their attempt to wish away the protest.

Fars News is no longer playing up its hostile recognition of the marches, blaming Hashemi Rafsanjani's son for leading 50-100 "goons" (and explaining that Mehdi Karroubi arrived at an empty 7 Tir Square after the goons were shooed away by Iranian security forces). Instead, it features an interview a member of the Confederate Party of Islamic Clergy who praises youth for being ready to stand against the arrogance of internal and external enemies. The strategy of the Islamic Republic News Agency is to focus on President Ahmadinejad's hosting of the Emir of Qatar.

Of course, this could all change with a forceful speech by President Ahmadinejad. For now, however, Is sense uncertainty.

1045 GMT: An Iranian reporter working for Agence France Presse was arrested during yesterday's demonstrations. The whereabouts of Farhad Poulardi are unknown.

0845 GMT: How the Green Wave Swept Over Press TV.

This was the opening of the state media's English-language report on its website at 1115 GMT, "Iranians mark US embassy takeover":

Rallies marking the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover in Tehran have started in capital Tehran as well as other cities across the country.

Tens of thousands of people from all walks of life and many political persuasions have staged a rally at the site of the former US embassy in Tehran, better known in Iranian history as the 'Den of Spies'.

But this was overtaken by the opening of the report posted at 1930 GMT, "Opposed rallies on US Embassy takeover anniversary":

Thousands of supporters of defeated presidential candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have held a rally in the Iranian capital as the country commemorated the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover.

The main anti-government rally took place at a central square in Tehran on Wednesday, November 4, our correspondent Leila Faramarzi reported.

It was only in the 5th paragraph that the article noted, "Tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to commemorate the day, dubbed as the national day of fighting global arrogance."

0745 GMT: State Media Setback? Egypt's Middle East News Agency reports that Iran's Arabic-language satellite TV channel, Al-Alam, has been taken off the air by two Arab-controlled satellite companies.

The official explanation form Nilesat and Arabsat is "breach of contract", but there according to Egypt's MENA news agency, but there is speculation that Arab governments want to curb the reach and influence of the channel.

0740 GMT: Complementing our correspondent Mr Azadi's eyewitness report, the Green Freedom Wave has also posted a detailed summary of events throughout Iran yesterday.

0725 GMT: We start this morning with an apology. 13 Aban was notable not just for the events in Iran, but for the birthday of the daughter of one of our correspondents. In the flurry of events, we forgot to offer our best wishes.

Our correspondent noted, "I used to be happy she was born on 13 Aban because it marked my defiance of the Americans. Now I am happy because it coincides with another movement." But will there be celebrations today as well? We've posted an analysis by Mr Smith and a first-hand account from the streets of Iran. We're hoping another analysis will follow this morning, and we'll posting more videos that have emerged.

At the moment the biggest buzz, at least for CNN, is that President Ahmadinejad will be giving a televised speech. No clues yet as to content. Unsurprisingly, no sign either of the opposition's next move, as breath is caught after yesterday's emerging if partial triumph.

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2125 GMT: More University Protests. In addition to today's demonstration and hunger strike at Sharif University (video in separate entry), about 400 students at Islamic Azad University of Roodehen, near Tehran, chanted “Ya Hossein, Mir Hossein", “We support the brave Karroubi” , “Death to Dictator”, “Courageous student, join us at the November 4th rally” and “Viva Karoubi, Viva Mousavi” (English summary). There is also video of a rally at the University of Kashan, south of Tehran.

1930 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, have visited the family of detainee Feizollah Arabsorkhe and claimed "investigators have been challenged by their daily conversations and dialogues with the children of the Revolution”.

Feizollah Arabsorkhi is a leading member of the reformist Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution and has been in prison since June.

Mr. Mousavi insisted that political activists and youth in the post-election protests are not “sabotaging or destroying”: “If the media were free and people were allowed to have their say, we would not have fallen to this state.”

1915 GMT: Back from a break to find a couple of stories on a relatively quiet day, as various forces prepare for 13 Aban.

Journalist Fariba Pajooh has ended her hunger strike, begun on 26 October, because of serious health problems. Pajooh was arrested on 22 August and has been detained in Tehran’s Evin Prison.

Iranian authorities have barred Emaddedin Baghi from leaving the country to collect the Martin Ennals Award for Human Rights Defenders. Baghi is a prominent opponent of the death penalty in Iran and founder of the Society for the Defense of Prisoners’ Rights.

1525 GMT: The Facebook site associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi has published an English translation of the account of Mehdi Karroubi's meeting this weekend with the student organisation Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat. Beyond his claim that votes were allocated in advance of the Presidential election on 12 June, Karroubi's speech was a rallying call:

In this circumstance it is necessary that activists maintain their network and use the opportunities for meetings and gatherings, and don’t let people to be pushed to corners. Activists should announce their ideas, and in our ideas and methods we should emphasise those that are based on the national and religious identity of our beloved Iran like the anniversary of the victory of the Revolution, the celebration of Ghorban [one of the Islamic celebrations after Haj], and Ashora [the day Imam Hossein, the third Imam of Shia Islam, was martyred]. Today my advice to you is to maintain forces and ideas and to retain our just position.

1335 GMT: Iran's press supervisory body has banned publication of the leading business daily, Sarmayeh, for "repeated violations of the press law." Sarmayeh's editor Saeed Laylaz has been detained since June.

1325 GMT: More than four months after his detention, the file on former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi's case has been sent to the Revolutionary Court. This raises the prospect of formal charges, possibly this week.

1320 GMT: It's Official --- Karroubi Marches. Mehdi Karroubi's Tagheer website has just confirmed that the cleric will be at Hafte-Tir (7 Tir) Square in Tehran, at 10:30 a.m. local time, for 13 Aban ceremonies. This supersedes previous claims that Karroubi would join students at Amir Kabir University.

1125 GMT: Video Specials. We've just gotten the footage from today's demonstration and hunger strike at Sharif University and have posted two clips. And an EA reader has pointed us to one of the finest speeches on modern Iran and the Green movement, delivered by a 7-year-old student, that we have had the privilege of hearing.

1100 GMT: I've just posted one of the most difficult articles that I have attempted since 12 June. It's a response to an opinion piece in today's Washington Post that dismisses the Green movement as "Iran's Unlovable Opposition".

0920 GMT: We've posted, courtesy of Iran Review, an analysis by Iranian foreign policy analyst Keyhan Bazargar of a possible "middle way" by Tehran to resolve talks on uranium enrichment.

0810 GMT: Meanwhile, The Internal Battle. Here is how complex the fight inside the Iranian establishment over talks with the "West" has become: the Islamic Republic News Agency is featuring an interview with a "State Department nuclear consultant", who emphasises the guarantees that the International Atomic Energy Agency will put in any agreement on Iran's nuclear programme.

That to me is a pretty clear indication that the Ahmadinejad Government, for internal reasons, wants to spin out discussions. But, given the now open hostility of high-profile members of Parliament and both Ali and Sadegh Larijani, how much support does the President have?

And what does the Supreme Leader think of all this?

0755 GMT: That Latest Iran Move on Uranium Enrichment (see 0700 GMT). Foreign Minister Mottaki's statement, made during a conference in Malaysia, was that Tehran had submitted its response to the International Atomic Energy Agency on Saturday. This was for a technical commission to review the Vienna proposal of the "5+1" powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China, Germany), which was for 80 percent of Iran's uranium stock to be enriched in Russia.

Interpretation? Go no further than Enduring America last Friday:

Given Ahmadinejad’s position, the political advantages of spinning out the talks are there to be grasped. If there are alterations in the plan to reduce the amount shipped below 80 percent and to send it out in stages rather than in one delivery, these will be concession to Iran’s and the President’s strength. If the “West” walks away from the table, this will be an indication of their continuing deceptions and mistakes — despite their apparent request for forgiveness from Tehran — and Iran will be in the right as it maintains nuclear sovereignty.

0700 GMT: 48 hours to go before the demonstrations of 13 Aban (4 November), and what we sense is growing excitement inside and outside Iran is making its way into international news coverage. The New York Times rather staidly notes, "Opposition in Iran Urges Continuing Challenge", while The Observer of London announces, "Iran Students Plan Return to Street Protests".

The coverage, following Reuters' initial lead, is still troublesome with its distortion of the impending rally. The New York Times, perhaps unwittingly, links Green opposition to hostility to the US: "The occasion is the 30th anniversary of the takeover of the United States Embassy in Tehran by hard-line students on Nov. 4, 1979. The day is marked every year with anti-American rallies." And both newspapers are bizarrely cautious about the open challenge of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi in recent days: "Mousavi appeared to back the protests yesterday....Although the opposition leaders...did not openly call for street protests, their remarks were widely seen as a call to arms on a day of considerable symbolic importance."

And "Western" journalists will still be distracted by even the slightest of remarks on the nuclear issue. This morning, for example, all have jumped on the comments of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki that Iran has requested a technical commission to review the "third-party enrichment" proposal from the Vienna talks. (America's ABC News and even Fox News, which have not printed a word about 13 Aban, have seized on Mottaki's statement as a top story.)

Still, I cannot recall the "Western" media anticipating the last big marches on Qods Day (18 September), and it is interesting to note that The New York Times writes in retrospect, "Hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets." With the possibility that 13 Aban will bring out even bigger marches, news organisations --- print and broadcast --- will be on alert Wednesday. Their coverage does not reply or supersede the rallies, of course, but it may support the Green movement in a way not seen since early in the post-election crisis.

It is two days to 13 Aban (4 November).