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Entries in Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi (1)

Tuesday
Oct062009

The Latest from Iran (6 October): Loud Noises, Quiet Manoeuvres

NEW Video: 4 Clips from Tehran Azad University Protests (6 October)
NEW Iran: Talks and Legitimacy - Takeyh and Marandi on CNN
The Latest from Iran (5 October): The Difficulty of Signals

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IRAN GREEN1940 GMT: Isn't It Ironic, Don't You Think? The Iranian Government has celebrated Teachers Day by arresting 12 teachers. (To clarify, in light of comments below, World Teachers Day is 5 October. Iran's Teachers Day is 2 May.)

1745 GMT: Rumours and Audits. Tomorrow could be a very interesting day in the Iranian Parliament. The hot whisper is that former Tehran Prosecutor General and now Iran Deputy Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi could be set up as the "fall guy" for abuses mentioned in a Parliamentary report.

More substantial --- at this point --- is another criticism of President Ahmadinejad, this time over Government expenditure. The National Audit Report to the Parliament claims mismanagement, embezzlement, and fraud and accuses the Government of 2005-2009 of harming the nation.

1725 GMT: The release of the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli, Mohammad Ghoochani, has been delayed.

1635 GMT: Another Player on the Pitch. OK, the reformists are in play with their meeting with senior clerics (1555 GMT). Rafsanjani's gone public with his meeting with clerics (1608 GMT). And now Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, re-enters after his recent detention. He has written an open letter of scathing criticism of the Revolutionary Guard and its commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari.

1618 GMT: Larijani Win, Ahmadinejad Defeat? Mik Verbrugge adds vital information on Ali Larijani's re-election as head of the Principlist group in Parliament (1605 GMT). Despite days of reports that pro-Ahmadinejad MPs would try to unseat Larijani, their candidate received only seven votes.

1615 GMT: More Student Protests. Reports and videos are coming in of demonstrations at Shiraz/Sadra University and Azad University in Tehran.

1608 GMT: Another Rafsanjani Message? As some senior clerics meet reformist politicians (1555 GMT), others have met Hashemi Rafsanjani to express grave concern over the national crisis and ask Rafsanjani to take all steps towards resolution. Rafsanjani reportedly answered, "In order to exit this crisis, we need 2 identify the 'true culprits' of divisions and provocations and confront them decisively." He further explained that such culprits were those "who accuse, slander, float rumours, and those in the media who help them".

1605 GMT: Ali Larijani has been re-elected leader of the Principlist group in Parliament with 24 of 32 central committee votes.

1555 GMT: Now It Gets Interesting. Members of the Parliamentary reformist minority, the Imam Khomeini Line, will consult with marjas (senior clerics), including Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib. The news comes 24 hours before a Parliamentary committee is due to report on its enquiry into alleged abuses of post-election detainees.

1545 GMT: No Sympathy Allowed. Back from academic seminars to find a rush of developments. Yet another sign that the ruling authorities are feeling some pressure. The Vice Governor of Tehran has ordered City Council members to refrain from meeting freed detainees and families.

1210 GMT: I Love You (Spell It with Tractors). Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, has a delightfully naughty article about the dubious background of Ahmadinejad's latest selection for First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi. There's little to support claims such as "allegations of stealing land from a University", but this allegation made up for lack of evidence with a sense of style:
He later assumed position as the governor of Kurdistan Province in the early 90s when Rafsanjani was in his second term as Iranian President. According to sources supporting the current coup government, during Rafsanjani’s visit to his province, Rahimi ordered farmers to place their tractors in a way that would read phrases in praise of Rafsanjani.

Meanwhile, three members of Parliament have filed a complaint, requesting investigation of claims that Rahimi forged his doctorate.

1155 GMT: Poke, Poke, Poke. You might think that the Ahmadinejad Government, having gotten agreement to a series of talks and averted the prospect of tougher sanctions, might want to take a quiet, steady line.

No chance. The latest jab of the stick comes from the head of Iran's nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, who tells Kayhan that the second uranium enrichment plant at Fardoo will have the latest in high-technology centrifuges. In other words, the calmer narrative of Fardoo as a back-up to the main plant at Natanz will now be replaced, both by Tehran and by "Western" critics of engagement, with the portrayal of Fardoo as a front-line component in Iran's drive to nuclear energy (Iran version) or nuclear weapons ("Western" critics version).

1000 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has visited the home of the recently-released reformist leader Saeed Hajjarian. No details of the discussion have been offered.

0945 GMT: Earlier we noted the closure of Farhange Ashti, a newspaper close to Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the pro-reformist Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi by the Press Supervisory Board (0715 GMT). It is now reported that a third newspaper, Tahlil Rooz, has been shut.

0830 GMT: News arrives of a new Web project to offer English translations of German media on the post-election crisis in Iran. Some interesting material is already on-line.

0745 GMT: We've posted a brief analysis and transcript of an interview of former Obama Administration official Ray Takeyh and University of Tehran academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi on CNN. It's a textbook example of how, as Washington pursues engagement, the Ahmadinejad Government will link the talks to international and internal legitimacy.

0715 GMT: A quiet Tuesday so far. The Ahmadinejad Government has been playing up its international profile, calling the Geneva talks on the nuclear programme a “national success” for “Iran's resistance” to foreign pressure and emphasising that the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei “praised Iran's cooperation" in his Sunday press conference. (There was no reference to El Baradei's call for transparency from Tehran.) Ahmadinejad also proclaimed Iran's support for the Iraqi Government, framing it as an ally against unnamed opponents: "With fine qualities such as theirs, the Iraqi nation has a bright future ahead of it. It will undoubtedly stop its enemies in their tracks and take up its responsibilities with the understanding and foresight that it has."

Nothing further on the “National Unity Plan”. Nor has there been much from the Green movement or even from leading reformists since the weekend. So we are still stuck in trying to understand the politics behind a plan whose details are not known.

However, there was one very powerful signal on Monday of the internal battle between forces allied with Hashemi Rafsanjani and those who oppose his manoeuvres for “political reconciliation”. Farhange Ashti, a newspaper close to Rafsanjani, was closed on orders of the Press Supervisory Board. The pro-reformist Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi has also been shut.