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This week the meeting of foreign ministers of Mediterranean Union countries was postponed by France after efforts to bring Egypt to the table failed. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit had stated that he would not attend if Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was present. France is considering an invitation to prime ministers to rescue the summit.

Lieberman's effect is being felt elsewhere, however. In an interview given to The Guardian, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Lieberman had threatened the region with the use of nuclear weapons in Gaza during the Operation Cast Lead. In contrast Erdogan, who will visit Tehran next week, said Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons and "is Turkey's friend."

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Despite Hamas' objections and warnings, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said Tuesday that he will set 24 January as the date for presidential and legislative elections. At the time, appearing with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Abbas claimed, "Fatah completely supported the Egyptian proposal [for Palestinian reconciliation]...but then Hamas put down obstacles."

Abbas, who has faced difficulties not only with Hamas but also with Palestinians in the West Bank and with Israel, has now used his two cards: The threat of a third intifada and the a re-submitted proposal endorsing the Goldstone Report on the Gaza War. Now, it is Hamas' turn, as it ponders whether to warn Washington that the tension may increase in Palestine or to enter the electoral process in the expectation that it can defeat Abbas.

The question is: can Abbas, looking for an exit strategy from the pressure on many fronts, really make the declaration of elections come true, especially in the wake of the recent failed initiative for renewed talks between Israel and Palestine? Or is he bluffing?

Palestine: Will Hamas Return to Cairo Talks Bring Agreement?

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Although Egypt said on Saturday that a reconciliation agreement between Hamas and Fatah had been postponed due to "inappropriate condition", it appears the U.S. reaction has prodded Hamas to return to the negotiation table. On Sunday, in an interview with Palestine Note, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal confirmed that the Islamist group will send a delegation to Cairo.



The parties were supposed to meet in Cairo last Thursday, but  only Fatah showed up to sign the reconciliation agreement without any reservations. If appears that, after Hamas asked for a few days to wait and see, Meshaal has changed his mind; however, Hamas has not given a guarantee that they will accept the dcoument. Hamas' deputy political leader, Abu Marzouk, has reiterated the reservations of Hamas over the US demand for recognition of the principles of the Quartet (US, European Union, UN, Russia). Marzouk also insisted on international recognition if Hamas wins Palestinian elections and on the re-opening of the Gaza-Egypt border crossing at Rafah.

Hamas delegates are going to Cairo and gives the message to Washington: "We are in," but will they arrive there with an "uncompromising" position towards the US as well as Fatah?

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On Thursday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said that he would not attend a meeting of Mediterranean Union foreign ministers if his Israeli counterpoart Avigdor Lieberman is present.

The Mediterranean Union was formed in 2008 on the initiative of French President Nicholas Sarkozy to establish economic and political connections between Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. As well as the 27 members of the European Union, there are represenatives from Egypt, Turkey, the Palestinian Authority, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Croatia, Albania, Bosnia Herzegovina, Mauritania, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia.

Israel is trying to modify Egypt's position with pressure through several countries including France. So far, however, there has been no response from Cairo.

Israel has another problem. The next venue for the Union is in Istanbul on November 24-25, and after the cancellation of the "international" military exercises, Israel is not on the best of terms with Turkey.

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Washington has told Cairo that it does not support a reconciliation agreement which does not include the principles of the Quartet (US, UN, European Union, Russia): recognition of the State of Israel, acknowledgement of earlier agreements, and renunciation of terrorism. The Obama Administration believe the current agreement, which is supposed to be signed by both parties by October 15 , could undermine negotiations with Israel.

The Fatah Party, which leads the Palestinian Authority's West Bank Government, has already agreed with the draft of the reconciliation agreement, while Hamas has not made its position clear because of the recent PA support for deferral of the United Nations Human Rights Council vote on the Goldstone Report on Gaza.

With the pressure on Egypt to pull back from the reconcilation agreement, Fatah can concentrate on repairing its position. Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said that on 16 October 16 the PA will ask the Human Rights Council to forward the Goldstone report either to the UN Security Council or to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

Which only leaves a question: if the Obama Administration really that a peace settlement between the Palestinian Authority and Israel can come true without an agreement between Fatah and Hamas....How?