Wednesday
Sep232009
The Latest from Iran (23 September): New York Sideshow, Tehran Main Event
Wednesday, September 23, 2009 at 18:00 
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1630 GMT: So Twitter Doesn't Matter? The pro-Government newspaper Kayhan is most irritated at a "twitition", promoted via social media, for Mehdi Karroubi to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. This is, apparebtly, the work of agents of the "West" and "Zionists" (and it is in a separate entry on EA).
1500 GMT: Ahmadinejad's away but his Government is still trying to play the enforcer at home. Fereshteh Ghazi reports that Majid Khorami, another member of the reformist Islamic Participation Front and head of Campaign 88 in northern Khorasan province, has been arrested.
1230 GMT: Another example of Red Herring Analysis. Meir Javedanfar is one of the most prominent US-based analysts of Iran, but he also foregoes consideration of the important dynamics inside Iran for the superficial of the President's performance today: "Ahmadinejad's words at the United Nations this week should therefore not be dismissed too quickly. They are a valuable reflection into the thinking of a regime that could soon become a nuclear power. On the contrary, President Ahmadinejad's words should serve as a blueprint for how a nuclear Iran might behave."
1115 GMT: Another Arrest. Confirmation today from various sources that Azar Mansouri, the political deputy to the Secretary General of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, Mohsen Mirdamadi, has been detained. Mirdamadi himself has been under arrest since soon after the 12 June election.
1015 GMT: And here is Ahmadinejad's summary, from the AP interview, of who is to blame for the post-election conflict:
"These were our citizens who were killed, and they were not at fault. Those who were at fault were a group of politicians who basically instigated the events that transpired. I've asked the judicial system ... to find out who the perpetrators of those acts were.
"The government has no role in these events ... Undoubtedly, some foreign governments had a role to play in it ... It is all very regrettable ... Some European and American politicians took a wrong position and basically helped that happen."
1000 GMT: Associated Press has published extracts from their interview with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Its main significance is to bear out what we projected this morning about the media coverage of the President's forthcoming speech. Attention is paid to the Holocaust, Iran's nuclear programme, and the three detained US "hitchhikers". There is only one brief reference to Iran's internal situation.
0600 GMT: At 5 p.m. New York time (2100 GMT) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will address the United Nations General Assembly.
And to be honest, both for personal interest and for analysis, I really don't care. I can guess most of Ahmadinejad's script, and the way he'll deliver it, and how it will be treated. The one proviso is that, if there are large demonstrations --- involving not pro-Israeli groups but those protesting the internal situation in Iran --- it could dent Ahmadinejad's self-portrayal to his folks back home as confdient and secure leader.
The main action is in Tehran. We've got a separate analysis of Hashemi Rafsanjani's speech yesterday, and we're watching for reactions and manoeuvres.
Meanwhile, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has linked up publicly with Mir Hossein Mousavi in a new challenge to the Government. A Mousavi statement has been followed by a Montazeri letter denouncing the false confessions of show trials.
One of the detention cases has been highlighted by the blogger Fereshteh Ghazi (iranbaan on Twitter). She notes that fellow journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi is under heavy pressure in Evin Prison to confess. The interrogator has told him: "We have orders to crush you. If you don't work with us we'll do anything we want to you, and if you don't sign the confession papers we'll make you eat them." Zeidabadi's wife said that the interrogator has severely beaten her husband.
One of Zeidabadi's charges is that in an open letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he called him the "Leader" and not "Supreme" Leader. The interrogators have told Zeidabadi to apologise to Khamenei.
Reader Comments (27)
[...] via enduring america Veröffentlicht in News. Schlagworte: Evin-Gefängnis, Folter, Iran, Khamenei, menschenrechte. Kommentar schreiben » [...]
A Reuters report:
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE58K5IL20090921" rel="nofollow">Rights groups seek U.N. probe of Iran rape charges
The Lede has a great video lasting 8:40 minutes, compiled from several Qods day videos. Even I could understand parts of it. In the past I hadn't noticed all the narrow ribbons stretching through the crowds, held up by many hands like the wide cloth Green rivers. Some of the ribbons were yellow. Does the yellow mean anything, or was it just that the stores were sold out of green ribbon?
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/21/ignoring-youtube-ayatollah-sees-no-evil/" rel="nofollow">Iran Calls YouTube Weapon of ‘Psychological War’ The regime really needs to check into how we sinister Americans use YouTube... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WofFb_eOxxA" rel="nofollow">Gizmo Flushes. The Iranian people are the ones who turned it into something more.
Uh Scott, since when is Javadenfar American based? Sure, he's prominent on G2k.... but he's not exactly amrikai. Like other Israeli analysts, he's on board (moderately perhaps) with the general strategy to conflate Ahmadinejad with the system.... (remember too how many neocons before the elections wanted A/N to win -- because he would be easier to demonize?)
@ Scott Lucas - Whenever you have time have a look at this. I think the most important news of today.
Head of the Guards Jafari:
IRGC's interference in politics has been by the order of the highest authority (In other words we have only followed orders of the S.L) See source.
http://tinyurl.com/ll5w97
Well worth mentioning. In my post yesterday with regards to the Hashemi speech I mentioned the reaction of the guards, I did not expect a reaction this subtle. I am impressed.
Afshin
How is that statement subtle???
It seems surprising that he would admit the Pasdaran has interfered in politics from what everyone has said
Look behind the message. This is in response to Eid-e Fetr and specially the AoE speech by Hashemi. But it is not what everybody thinks it is, atleast not according to me. For me this is the a very tactical way of warning the S.L
Most responses I see on this is in my opinion completly wrong.
It is a very subtle warning to the S.L saying, Watch it, if we go down we are taking you with us. So think twice before you reply to Hashemi again. You are in this with us wether you like it or not. If we go, you go....
I expected a reply and made a refrence to it in my analyses yesterday but this surprised me. I think its pure genious.....
I see. Yet in doing so Jafari has to admit that the Pasdaran interfered in politics. The payoff must be worth it. Just making the statement already implicates SL, as you noted, so the payoff begins up front. SL automatically goes down a notch for once again interfering in politics as well as for using Pasdaran to do it. Also it associates SL with the abuses... a tidy little package
I think its nothing short of Genieus... The Guards are the greatest Poker players of the bunch... Untill now they are getting away with it everytime, but as all great gamblers, your luck will run out one day. You cant bluff your way out of every scenario.
Still I think the statement is PURE GENIEUS.....
[...] Afshin on The Latest from Iran (23 September): New York Sideshow, Tehran Main Event [...]
@afshin
again I think this is a significant sign that SL is really really weak, he is insecure, he lacks confidence, he`s stuck in the middle of nowhere. SL don`t know which side to take;
"It is a very subtle warning to the S.L saying, Watch it, if we go down we are taking you with us" I agree with this statement.
but then on the other hand we have Hashemi and the Marjas giving their own warning : " take our side, or else you will go down" SL is now a confused little boy not knowing what to do. He has tried to satisfy both sides to some degree, denying that foreign powers had anything to do with the riots, warning the judicary to make judgments based on rumors, and now recently giving immunity to Hashemi`s sons stating that a third party in the trials can not be convicted. all this while Jafari loudly accuses Khatami , Mousavi and Karobi for planing a velvet revolution. I seriously doubt that there is a window open for negotiation between Hashemi and the Guards. Hashemi and the marjas are at defcon 2.
[...] Rafsanjani Seizes the Initiative The Latest from Iran (23 September): New York Sideshow, Tehran Main Event » Sep 23 [...]
@ arash
This war will be fought till the bitter end. Or so I hope
It's not a move. It's preparation for a move... whose? Is it defensive, waiting for Hashemi's declaration, or is a Pasdaran offensive about to begin?
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0924/p06s04-wome.html" rel="nofollow">Iranian diaspora protests Ahmadinejad at the UN
@Afshin
So, that brings us to the logical question. If you were to guess, who wins?
So, did anyone catch Ahmadi's UNGA performance? Bunch of "walkouts" apparently.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125375094951235849.html" rel="nofollow">Protesters Call for Ahmadinejad's Removal
Looking for a list-- many did not attend or left AN's speech
The http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hBaNX4ihXZdKH7VbbWgceyp64erAD9ATBAN80" rel="nofollow">US delegation walked out
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/6224954/Britain-walks-out-of-Irans-Ahmadinejads-anti-Semetic-speech-at-UN.html" rel="nofollow">UK walked This source also says "South American delegations", also Israel
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/emma-rubysachs/why-canada-shouldnt-walk_b_296029.html" rel="nofollow">Canada walked
Comparing sources, it's not clear if the delegations walked out or boycotted the speech
... others?
Protest Videos: http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/23/video-of-protests-outside-the-united-nations/" rel="nofollow">Iranians Protest Outside the United Nations
http://qik.com/thelede" rel="nofollow">More video here
I wonder how this one turned out;
There are comments in this report & elsewhere about tensions between Iranian expat groups with different political view... Greens, Royalists, supporters of the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq.
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@ kevina
Its no guess, History has time and again answered that question.
I have said my self a few times. U can govern if loved, U can govern if respected, heck u can govern is feard but one can NEVER govern if truly hated.
This is a hated regime and their days are numbered. Next to that they have so much resistance from within that they can not possibly win this battle. Clubs and guns may crush and silence the people for a the short term but in the long runs they will in all cases lose. Due to the complex internal baatle and the fairly organised resistance they have even failed at that. (Qods Day)
in worse case scenario the next major protests will be in 3 months time. The big question will be, will the Clerics (Hashemi and Co) be able to manage the situation in time or will the people grow tired of them and take things into their own hands.
I do not see A.N going the distance on his second term, I do not see S.L staying in power and I do not see the Guards remaining unless in a complete new role
Amy: yellow is Karroubi's color