Saturday
Sep262009
The Latest from Iran (26 September): The False Flag of the Nuke Issue
Saturday, September 26, 2009 at 16:31
NEW Iran: The "Die Zeit" Article on Opposition and Change
NEW Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Interview on CNN’s Larry King
Iran's Nuclear Programme: The US State Department Line
Video: Ahmadinejad Interview with Time Magazine
Transcript: Obama and Sarkozy Statements on Iran Nuclear Programme
Iran: Obama’s “Get-Tough” Move for Engagement
Iran: Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad, and the Multi-Sided Chess Match
The Latest from Iran (25 September): The Nuclear Distraction
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2140 GMT: We've now posted an English translation of the Die Zeit article, with its explosive rumours of significant change in the Iranian system.
2005 GMT: Rouydad carries an explosive story, from an inside source, that the Ministry of Guidance and Culture has created a five-person committee to create and spread disinformation, including the claim of a meeting between billionaire George Soros and former President Mohammad Khatami as part of the "velvet revolution". The committee allegedly includes the head of a news agency, an expert on the Internet, a television presenter, and an intelligence official. Millions of dollars are being devoted to the effort.
1955 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has returned from New York with an upbeat political assessment of his "satisfactory" and "successful" stay in the US. He has emphasised the need for change in the management of the United Nations, including the Security Council. No mention, however, of the nuclear issue.
1925 GMT: Report that activist and Mehdi Karroubi supporter Housein Mahdavi has been arrested in Khoramabad.
1730 GMT: Today's "Velvet Revolution" Showcase. It comes courtesy of the Supreme Leader's Advisor For Military Affairs, Major General Seyed Yahiya Rahim Safavi, who said on Saturday, "The (enemies') soft war is aimed at changing the (Iranian nation's) culture, views, values, national beliefs and belief in values. Soft warfare is a complicated type of political, cultural, information operations launched by the world powers to create favorable changes in the target countries."
1715 GMT: The Wall Street Journal, snarling for a confrontation with Iran, inadvertently exposes the weakness in the dramatic presentation of the second enrichment facility:
"Let's also not forget the boost Iran got in late 2007, when a U.S. national intelligence estimate concluded that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and kept it frozen. The U.S. spy agencies reached this dubious conclusion while apparently knowing about the site near Qom."
Probably for the chest-thumpers at the WSJ is that the conclusion is not dubious at all (see the State Department's defense of it in a separate entry). Even if the second facility had taken in shipments of uranium, which is not alleged even by the US Government, even if high-grade centrifuges had been installed, which is not established, even if those centrifuges had begun enriching uranium, which is not claimed anywhere, that would not establish a direct link with a resumed nuclear weapons program. It would merely establish that Iran now had some quantity of enriched uranium which might or might not be for military rather than civilian purposes.
However, the WSJ's railing do not have to be logical to show the problems for the Obama Administration's strategy. Opponents will now claim that the 2nd enrichment facility shows that all intelligence assessments from 2007 must be thrown out and will put by default the faith-based assertion that Iran is hell-bent on the Bomb and beyond diplomacy.
1650 GMT: The Institute for Science and International Security has posted images "of two possible locations of the gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facility under construction near Qom, Iran. Both are tunnel facilities located within military compounds approximately 30-40 kilometers away."
1620 GMT: Just to follow up on the biggest of rumours (see 1400 GMT) for change in the Iranian system, with the five-person committee to replace the Supreme Leader and the replacement of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with Tehran Mayor Qalibaf. I've read the Die Zeit piece, and it reads like rumour, Chinese whispers, and wishful thinking rather than hard information on any plan from Hashemi Rafsanjani or another source.
1600 GMT: The Grand Rafsanjani Plan? While the details of Hashemi Rafsanjani's purported political compromise are in the category of rumour, its existence is verified by the number of politicians and clerics asking for its consideration. Reformist MP Darius Ghanbari has called for "more efforts...to achieve...consensus and a calm atmosphere" and said, "Hashemi has all these features to bring the sides together", although "this will be achieved only when conditions that allow the rebuilding of trust to eliminate extremism and hatred." Another MP has called on Parliament's National Security Commission to act on the lines set out by Rafsanjani's 14 July Friday Prayer speech as the "best solution for an exit from the current situation".
1445 GMT: Not-So-Dramatic Breaking News. Iran's chief official for the nuclear programme, Ali Akbar Salehi, says Tehran will allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect the second uranium enrichment facility.
Look for the media to play this up as an important development. It's not. The logical strategy for Iran is to draw out the process of negotiation over access, appearing to be receptive to international demands for inspection while defending sovereignty and political position. That's why Salehi "didn't specify when inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency could visit the site" and said "the timing will be worked out with the U.N. watchdog".
1410 GMT: The Battle Among the Experts. Ayande News Agency has revealed the bitter division in the Assembly of Experts. Hussein Ka'abi criticised Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib, who has been prominent in his condemnation of the "illegitimate" Ahmadinejad Government and the brutal suppression of post-election dissent, and started a petition amongst the members of the Assembly for Dastgheib's dismissal. It is claimed that the Supreme Leader rejected the petition.
1405 GMT: Political activist Maysam Roudak was detained on Tuesday. She was previously arrested in September 2007, charged with acting against national security, and then bailed for $50,000.
1400 GMT: Noting the Even More Intriguing Rumour. This morning (0455 GMT) we wrote about the unconfirmed story that Hashemi Rafsanjani is trying to bring a political resolution through the intervention of the Expediency Council, which he chairs.
Even that pales, however, before the stunning claims in the German Die Zeit. The scenario is that a new system of "Supreme Leaders" with set terms would replace the current overall Supreme Leader with office for life and, more specifically, that the current Mayor of Tehran, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, would replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President.
We're looking for the original German article, but a Farsi summary is available via Deutsche Welle.
0930 GMT: Nonsense and War Talk. The "analysis" of the Iran in many of today's newspapers is simply awful. The Guardian of London's "Q and A Guide" bluntly informs, "[This] shows Iran has not been telling the truth about its nuclear activities," omitting little points such as Tehran's declaration to the International Atomic Energy Agency on Monday and the differing interpretations of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The journalist, Ian Black, blithely assures, "It seems unlikely that a revelation of such importance would have been made without rigorous checking of sources." Which sounds good unless you realise that Black's next paragraph, "It is known that two years ago the US managed to penetrate Iranian computer systems," refers to the highly suspect American claim of a magic Iranian laptop, supposedly obtained from a defector, which has yet to be seen by the IAEA.
All of this might be harmless if ludicrous, were it not for the inconvenience that it aids and abets talk of War, War, War. In The Wall Street Journal, Anthony Cordesman, exalted by the US media as a top military expert, explains, "Israel must consider not just whether to proceed with a strike against Iran—but how", and kindly offers his "Iran Attack Plan". And the BBC's flagship radio programme, Today, having just heard from the British Foreign Minister, David Miliband, that diplomacy must be pursued, immediately turned to Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who declared, well, no, the military option should be prepared.
0505 GMT: The Iranian (State) Line. Press TV frames President Ahmadinejad's political strategy, which is to downplay any dispute and offer on the surface an accommodation over the second enrichment facility: "Ahmadinejad: 2nd nuclear site open for inspection". It summarises the President's New York press conference, which was delayed yesterday, and features his stance that Iran is within the law (which we picked up in Friday updates): "According to the IAEA rules, countries must inform the Agency 6 months ahead of the gas injection in their uranium enrichment plants. We have done it 18 months ahead and this should be appreciated not condemned."
0455 GMT: And, if you're not caught up with the "secret nuclear plant", what are the internal developments in Iran? To be honest, in the last 48 hours, all parties have caught breath and assessed their positions. The most intriguing possibility is that Hashemi Rafsanjani is trying to seize the initiative by setting up the Expediency Council as the proposer and arbiter of a political settlement. The Council is a different body from the clerical Assembly of Experts, which Rafsanjani also heads: its official function in the Iranian system is to rule in disputes between the Parliament and the Guardian Council, but it works primarily as an advisory body to the Supreme Leader.
At this point, the story is still rumour, but it is prominent in Internet chatter. Our readers offer a useful introduction in their comments on yesterday's updates.
0420 GMT: A "false flag" ship is one that disguises its true origin by sailing under the colours of another country. The parallel for Iran today is a near-hysterical situation in which an issue far removed from the critical questions of the post-election conflict suddenly becomes the primary, and even the sole, criterion by which Tehran is judged.
The "Western" media run headlong, escorted and often led by a Government agency, towards a finish line of the most dramatic and damning tale. The Times of London turns itself into Boys' Own Intelligence Journal, "How secrecy over Iran's Qom nuclear facility was finally blown away".
The New York Times gets closer to the immediate politics in its opening paragraph, "On Tuesday evening in New York, top officials of the world nuclear watchdog agency approached two of President Obama’s senior advisers to deliver the news: Iran had just sent a cryptic letter describing a small “pilot” nuclear facility that the country had never before declared." Then, however, it takes the US Government's bait, substituting supposed anguish and hurt for Washington's balancing of "engagement" and pressure on Tehran (see Chris Emery's analysis, which is far beyond anything in mainstream media this morning), "The Americans were surprised by the letter, but they were angry about what it did not say. American intelligence had come across the hidden tunnel complex years earlier, and the advisers believed the situation was far more ominous than the Iranians were letting on."
CNN, meanwhile, hits a new low in its spiralling coverage of Iran, falling into the Iranian President's own public-relations campaign by putting him on The Larry King Show, which usually devotes itself to interviewing Hollywood celebrities, participants in headline crime stories, or anyone loosely connected with Michael Jackson. Ahmadinejad's far-from-stunning revelation? ""We simply didn't expect President Obama to say something that was baseless."
None of this hyperbole and alarm, fuelled by the US Government's need to put pressure on Tehran before talks begin in Geneva on 1 October, comes close to the complexity of the politics on the uranium enrichment facility near Qom. None of it appreciates what an EA correspondent points out:
But all of the hyperbole and alarm replaces any consideration of and even attention to the internal developments in Iran.
NEW Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Interview on CNN’s Larry King
Iran's Nuclear Programme: The US State Department Line
Video: Ahmadinejad Interview with Time Magazine
Transcript: Obama and Sarkozy Statements on Iran Nuclear Programme
Iran: Obama’s “Get-Tough” Move for Engagement
Iran: Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad, and the Multi-Sided Chess Match
The Latest from Iran (25 September): The Nuclear Distraction
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2140 GMT: We've now posted an English translation of the Die Zeit article, with its explosive rumours of significant change in the Iranian system.2005 GMT: Rouydad carries an explosive story, from an inside source, that the Ministry of Guidance and Culture has created a five-person committee to create and spread disinformation, including the claim of a meeting between billionaire George Soros and former President Mohammad Khatami as part of the "velvet revolution". The committee allegedly includes the head of a news agency, an expert on the Internet, a television presenter, and an intelligence official. Millions of dollars are being devoted to the effort.
1955 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has returned from New York with an upbeat political assessment of his "satisfactory" and "successful" stay in the US. He has emphasised the need for change in the management of the United Nations, including the Security Council. No mention, however, of the nuclear issue.
1925 GMT: Report that activist and Mehdi Karroubi supporter Housein Mahdavi has been arrested in Khoramabad.
1730 GMT: Today's "Velvet Revolution" Showcase. It comes courtesy of the Supreme Leader's Advisor For Military Affairs, Major General Seyed Yahiya Rahim Safavi, who said on Saturday, "The (enemies') soft war is aimed at changing the (Iranian nation's) culture, views, values, national beliefs and belief in values. Soft warfare is a complicated type of political, cultural, information operations launched by the world powers to create favorable changes in the target countries."
1715 GMT: The Wall Street Journal, snarling for a confrontation with Iran, inadvertently exposes the weakness in the dramatic presentation of the second enrichment facility:
"Let's also not forget the boost Iran got in late 2007, when a U.S. national intelligence estimate concluded that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and kept it frozen. The U.S. spy agencies reached this dubious conclusion while apparently knowing about the site near Qom."
Probably for the chest-thumpers at the WSJ is that the conclusion is not dubious at all (see the State Department's defense of it in a separate entry). Even if the second facility had taken in shipments of uranium, which is not alleged even by the US Government, even if high-grade centrifuges had been installed, which is not established, even if those centrifuges had begun enriching uranium, which is not claimed anywhere, that would not establish a direct link with a resumed nuclear weapons program. It would merely establish that Iran now had some quantity of enriched uranium which might or might not be for military rather than civilian purposes.
However, the WSJ's railing do not have to be logical to show the problems for the Obama Administration's strategy. Opponents will now claim that the 2nd enrichment facility shows that all intelligence assessments from 2007 must be thrown out and will put by default the faith-based assertion that Iran is hell-bent on the Bomb and beyond diplomacy.
1650 GMT: The Institute for Science and International Security has posted images "of two possible locations of the gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facility under construction near Qom, Iran. Both are tunnel facilities located within military compounds approximately 30-40 kilometers away."
1620 GMT: Just to follow up on the biggest of rumours (see 1400 GMT) for change in the Iranian system, with the five-person committee to replace the Supreme Leader and the replacement of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with Tehran Mayor Qalibaf. I've read the Die Zeit piece, and it reads like rumour, Chinese whispers, and wishful thinking rather than hard information on any plan from Hashemi Rafsanjani or another source.
1600 GMT: The Grand Rafsanjani Plan? While the details of Hashemi Rafsanjani's purported political compromise are in the category of rumour, its existence is verified by the number of politicians and clerics asking for its consideration. Reformist MP Darius Ghanbari has called for "more efforts...to achieve...consensus and a calm atmosphere" and said, "Hashemi has all these features to bring the sides together", although "this will be achieved only when conditions that allow the rebuilding of trust to eliminate extremism and hatred." Another MP has called on Parliament's National Security Commission to act on the lines set out by Rafsanjani's 14 July Friday Prayer speech as the "best solution for an exit from the current situation".
1445 GMT: Not-So-Dramatic Breaking News. Iran's chief official for the nuclear programme, Ali Akbar Salehi, says Tehran will allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect the second uranium enrichment facility.
Look for the media to play this up as an important development. It's not. The logical strategy for Iran is to draw out the process of negotiation over access, appearing to be receptive to international demands for inspection while defending sovereignty and political position. That's why Salehi "didn't specify when inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency could visit the site" and said "the timing will be worked out with the U.N. watchdog".
1410 GMT: The Battle Among the Experts. Ayande News Agency has revealed the bitter division in the Assembly of Experts. Hussein Ka'abi criticised Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib, who has been prominent in his condemnation of the "illegitimate" Ahmadinejad Government and the brutal suppression of post-election dissent, and started a petition amongst the members of the Assembly for Dastgheib's dismissal. It is claimed that the Supreme Leader rejected the petition.
1405 GMT: Political activist Maysam Roudak was detained on Tuesday. She was previously arrested in September 2007, charged with acting against national security, and then bailed for $50,000.
1400 GMT: Noting the Even More Intriguing Rumour. This morning (0455 GMT) we wrote about the unconfirmed story that Hashemi Rafsanjani is trying to bring a political resolution through the intervention of the Expediency Council, which he chairs.
Even that pales, however, before the stunning claims in the German Die Zeit. The scenario is that a new system of "Supreme Leaders" with set terms would replace the current overall Supreme Leader with office for life and, more specifically, that the current Mayor of Tehran, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, would replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President.
We're looking for the original German article, but a Farsi summary is available via Deutsche Welle.
0930 GMT: Nonsense and War Talk. The "analysis" of the Iran in many of today's newspapers is simply awful. The Guardian of London's "Q and A Guide" bluntly informs, "[This] shows Iran has not been telling the truth about its nuclear activities," omitting little points such as Tehran's declaration to the International Atomic Energy Agency on Monday and the differing interpretations of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The journalist, Ian Black, blithely assures, "It seems unlikely that a revelation of such importance would have been made without rigorous checking of sources." Which sounds good unless you realise that Black's next paragraph, "It is known that two years ago the US managed to penetrate Iranian computer systems," refers to the highly suspect American claim of a magic Iranian laptop, supposedly obtained from a defector, which has yet to be seen by the IAEA.
All of this might be harmless if ludicrous, were it not for the inconvenience that it aids and abets talk of War, War, War. In The Wall Street Journal, Anthony Cordesman, exalted by the US media as a top military expert, explains, "Israel must consider not just whether to proceed with a strike against Iran—but how", and kindly offers his "Iran Attack Plan". And the BBC's flagship radio programme, Today, having just heard from the British Foreign Minister, David Miliband, that diplomacy must be pursued, immediately turned to Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who declared, well, no, the military option should be prepared.
0505 GMT: The Iranian (State) Line. Press TV frames President Ahmadinejad's political strategy, which is to downplay any dispute and offer on the surface an accommodation over the second enrichment facility: "Ahmadinejad: 2nd nuclear site open for inspection". It summarises the President's New York press conference, which was delayed yesterday, and features his stance that Iran is within the law (which we picked up in Friday updates): "According to the IAEA rules, countries must inform the Agency 6 months ahead of the gas injection in their uranium enrichment plants. We have done it 18 months ahead and this should be appreciated not condemned."
0455 GMT: And, if you're not caught up with the "secret nuclear plant", what are the internal developments in Iran? To be honest, in the last 48 hours, all parties have caught breath and assessed their positions. The most intriguing possibility is that Hashemi Rafsanjani is trying to seize the initiative by setting up the Expediency Council as the proposer and arbiter of a political settlement. The Council is a different body from the clerical Assembly of Experts, which Rafsanjani also heads: its official function in the Iranian system is to rule in disputes between the Parliament and the Guardian Council, but it works primarily as an advisory body to the Supreme Leader.
At this point, the story is still rumour, but it is prominent in Internet chatter. Our readers offer a useful introduction in their comments on yesterday's updates.
0420 GMT: A "false flag" ship is one that disguises its true origin by sailing under the colours of another country. The parallel for Iran today is a near-hysterical situation in which an issue far removed from the critical questions of the post-election conflict suddenly becomes the primary, and even the sole, criterion by which Tehran is judged.
The "Western" media run headlong, escorted and often led by a Government agency, towards a finish line of the most dramatic and damning tale. The Times of London turns itself into Boys' Own Intelligence Journal, "How secrecy over Iran's Qom nuclear facility was finally blown away".
The New York Times gets closer to the immediate politics in its opening paragraph, "On Tuesday evening in New York, top officials of the world nuclear watchdog agency approached two of President Obama’s senior advisers to deliver the news: Iran had just sent a cryptic letter describing a small “pilot” nuclear facility that the country had never before declared." Then, however, it takes the US Government's bait, substituting supposed anguish and hurt for Washington's balancing of "engagement" and pressure on Tehran (see Chris Emery's analysis, which is far beyond anything in mainstream media this morning), "The Americans were surprised by the letter, but they were angry about what it did not say. American intelligence had come across the hidden tunnel complex years earlier, and the advisers believed the situation was far more ominous than the Iranians were letting on."
CNN, meanwhile, hits a new low in its spiralling coverage of Iran, falling into the Iranian President's own public-relations campaign by putting him on The Larry King Show, which usually devotes itself to interviewing Hollywood celebrities, participants in headline crime stories, or anyone loosely connected with Michael Jackson. Ahmadinejad's far-from-stunning revelation? ""We simply didn't expect President Obama to say something that was baseless."
None of this hyperbole and alarm, fuelled by the US Government's need to put pressure on Tehran before talks begin in Geneva on 1 October, comes close to the complexity of the politics on the uranium enrichment facility near Qom. None of it appreciates what an EA correspondent points out:
Let's hold our horses on this one. The International Atomic Energy Agency has to certify that the plant is not new and that Iran has been working in it for years. Right now there is complete discordance between the Iranian and Western versions of events on this, but both curiously point out to one key factor: no enrichment is happening right now in the Qom installation, and construction is still in progress.
But all of the hyperbole and alarm replaces any consideration of and even attention to the internal developments in Iran.
tagged Assembly of Experts, Ayande News, Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib, BBC, David Miliband, Deutsche Welle, Die Zeit, Expediency Council, Guardian, Guardian Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hussein Ka'abi, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mark Fitzpatrick, Maysam Roudak, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, Nuclear Proliferation, Press TV, Rouydad, Wall Street Journal, Yahiya Rahim Safavi in Middle East & Iran
Assembly of Experts, Ayande News, Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib, BBC, David Miliband, Deutsche Welle, Die Zeit, Expediency Council, Guardian, Guardian Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hussein Ka'abi, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mark Fitzpatrick, Maysam Roudak, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, Nuclear Proliferation, Press TV, Rouydad, Wall Street Journal, Yahiya Rahim Safavi in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (27)
It might be true that gambling is wrong, but it's expedient to play poker with the West. Those pompous buffoons love games and it keeps them from reporting on our internal affairs. We have all the cards, deal from the bottom, with Machiavellian cards wild and Ahmadinejad the joker.
Perhaps we'll play with the Western mice. We have them by the tail. Our tales seem to please them like a bed time story that puts them to sleep while we out-maneuver our internal opponents. Perhaps we'll offer the Chinese mouse a piece of oily cheese. The Russians will make money selling us missiles. America is too weak to offer anything but meaningless concessions and rhetoric: sure, let the UN inspect something or other -- they can parade around if they like, maybe stop to say a prayer of pontification.
So Obama knew from Bush long ago that we were building a holy tunnel for the glory of Iran. So what. We have our ace in the hole. China needs our oil and they are on the security council. Russia? Um, by the way, perhaps we will appoint new ambassadors to Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Chechya.
Lies are pretty
oh so pretty
so witty and pretty today
Ahmadinejad,
you'll charm foolish little fools tonight
Om,Qom,Qum
bum a missile
Om,Qom,Qum
spin uranium
Lies to infidels,
peoples' souls,
UN toads,
for the codes
Loud!
Lies are pretty
oh so pretty
so witty and pretty today
Ahmadinejad,
you're such a charming peach tonight
Oh Ahmadinejad,
our prayers are a rose without perfume
Only in your selective reading is there talk of "War, War, War." The preponderance of comment and analysis in the mainstream press dismisses the military option as untenable.
Unfortunately the disclosure of the Qom facility (do you REALLY think Iran's hand wasn't forced on this?) undermines what was the most practical compromise in my view. That was Iran agreeing to the additional protocol and intrusive IAEA inspections. The argument will now be made that the IAEA can't possibly do enough to monitor Iran's program. Sanctions will continue as will Iran's development of their nuclear program.
Also, Larry King may be worthy of your derision, but truthfully he did no worse than any of the 'serious' interviewers Ahmadinejad routinely vanquishes on his annual New York charm offensives.
This is turning into a big mess. How do you stop a bunch of nuts? You can't. Only the people of Iran can change Iran and there nuts too. So what do we do?
I say cut off all food, and gasoline now and force the Iranian people to get rid of the religious crazies.
Don't really see any other way. This Iranian Government is made up of religious nuts stuck back 200 or more years. They will not change. They want to make the entire world like them.
Come down to it they are afraid of losing power don't you think?
BTW: Larry Interviews pop culture. He's not considered serious in America. He's a old radio guy not Walter Cronkite
Let's see we have one country with hundreds of nuclear weapons in the region (Zionist Israel) but the world's attention is on Iran having one or two nuclear weapons in the next few years. This more than anything else shows the hypocrisy of the western powers in protecting their imperialist child and its nuclear monopoly.
I hope Iran obtains its nuclear weapon soon (if it doesn't have it already) either by its own development or by transfer from North Korea or Pakistan.
Scott,
Re: Larry King
What's wrong with Ahmadinejad on Larry King? Is there anyone else we disagree with who shouldn't be allowed on TV?
Change "CNN" and "Ahmadinejad" to "Al-Arabiya" and "Obama," and I'm not sure you'd appreciate who you sound like.
While media focus is on Iran, President Obama also is working to advance Palestine/Israel talks. Yesterday's statement may be aimed as much at Israel as at Iran. President Obama considers an Israeli settlement freeze to be an essential element of peace talks. The Israeli govt says that the real issue is Iran's nukes--"How can we talk about settlements when Iran might go nuclear?" This sentiment is born both out of genuine concern and also a desire to deflect attention from the settlement issue. The Obama admin says, "Nukes? Look, we're addressing the nukes." President Obama is setting the table for P/I talks and also hopes to lower the temperature, discouraging rash action by Israel over the perceived nuclear threat
@ Amy
I think you are right. There are more chess games played at the moment then the one in Iran. And this one is multiple layered as well...
The "Zeit" article is available here:
http://www.rahaward.org/deutsch/archives/2009/09/das_gruen_das_nicht_verblasst.php
Scott @maniranzaminam linked to scans & a translation of die Zeit yesterday.
Thanks to all for the links. Catching up with the full story so keep me posted with thoughts and new developments.
S.
UJ,
My specific issue is not with Ahmadinejad on Larry King --- he should not be barred from any appearance. It is 1) that Larry King is an awful programme, with interviews that usually bottom-feed off celebrity and crime scandal, and Larry King is an interviewer OK for sucking up to interviewees but useless for any penetrating challenges to figures like the Iranian President; 2) that the US media have generally played into Ahmadinejad's strategy by giving him a platform for his political strategy, without the corresponding knowledge or sharpness of questions to expose the key issues, especially the political situation inside Iran.
S.
Lotfali,
Agreed that most comment in mainstream press has embraced or even opened up the possibility of military option, but it is disturbing that WSJ will give platform for "objective" analysts like Cordesman to push the case. National Review has jumped in as well.
So far the pressure for the military option is in that narrow spectrum of the press but the more that the second enrichment plant is exaggerated as a sign of Iran's imminent threat, the bigger the window for others in the media to join --- look in particular for Washington Post editorial page to shift.
S.
Scott re: Rafsanjani plan, here's another interesting (actually, hilarious) link : http://bit.ly/3nU2Gz
A.Khatami saying "it's not an Experts project, but something R is doing on his own"
as we are trying to audit the federal reserve thinks will get worst , there is an attack by the our own goverment plan just like the 911 and the population reduction plan with the vaccine against H1N1 ... it is the vaccine that will kill you
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eB7OwPk5Z78
this is what our own goverment have been planing for us
To give us a rest with Larry King and other AN related features in
well thinking global medias.... It's 'morals' of AN goverment being
discussed on tv, and it's happening on IRIB !! Unexpected in its way.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/09/selected-headlines-28.html
Yseut
Thanks! Gotta love it when an interview starts this way:
The regime of Islamic Republic of Iran should not be allowed to obtain Nuclear weapons capabilities. Not now, not ever!
In a free and democratic Iran, the Jewish Nation's Nuclear strike capabilities should be sufficient for mutual defenses in a de-facto "entente". A re-evaluation of the two countries national security requierments and long term diplomatic goals should also help spur a new wave of grassroot movements in the Arab World countries in support of Democratic changes, Universal Human Rights and genuine Secular Societies.
to Samuel:
We'll have AN & his gang packing and ship them to your hometown so you'll have fun experimenting together.
Please use the opportunity wisely and brush up on your Swastika making skills.
(of course, I'm only joking with you)
Amy Yes, especially when the adress comes from a challenging
old-beard theologian !
Here's another interesting comment of the late situation at large, seen
from 'Neo-resistance' blog
-resuming many opinions on this forum, reminding numbers and facts
-and much in phase with Scott's analysis. Interesting comments on
this blog site too...
http://iranfacts.blogspot.com/2009/09/behind-scenes-news-lost-in.html
Yseut
A very interesting piece--especially Naj's account of the shift in media attention. Combined with the 1410 GMT report (above) of buzz amongst the clerics & MPs, it suggests a lot of dissatisfaction with the current arrangement. Seems that something's in the air. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, materializes.
@Amy Yes, "if anything", is the word ! .... Seems too that Guards are being
hyper active at P.R. on state medias lately (see the new website of
Frontline/Tehran Bureau) News on tweets as well saying they're to create
a bank (pasdaran) ! Tehran sounds like full of rumours everywhere....
[edited by moderator]
F.lover: The nuts are not stuck back 200 years but 1300 years. So, don't expect a lot from these [people]. Of course, in what money and power is concerned they are very up to date!!!
Amy,
"Yesterday’s statement may be aimed as much at Israel as at Iran. President Obama considers an Israeli settlement freeze to be an essential element of peace talks."
Very well but what of Israel's numerous nuclear weapons??? Why is there no talk of sanctions or military attacks against it? I'm not even addressing Israel's other crimes including settlements. On the issue of Israel's nuclear weapons the rest of the world plays deaf and blind.
http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/197537481/insider-opinion-rafsanjani-plan-working-draft" rel="nofollow">Verbrugge's latest on Raf's "plan."
This is all well and good, but I still don't have a clear idea as to why Khamenei would do this. I guess he could have been convinced by Hashemi that doing so is the only choice (for himself & the regime), but that's speculative at best.
That said, if this comes into being I'm calling Raf "The Iranian Deng Xiaoping," saving the regime, while explaining away a horrible time (in China, the Cultural Revolution; in Iran, June 12). I also think, while imperfect, it would be a good outcome.
"That said, if this comes into being I’m calling Raf “The Iranian Deng Xiaoping,” saving the regime, while explaining away a horrible time (in China, the Cultural Revolution; in Iran, June 12)."
Problem with the analogy: Deng is the same leader who ordered the harsh crackdown on the Chinese "greens/reformists" at Tiananmen Square http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiananmen_Square_protests_of_1989
The Iranian crackdown after june 12 pales by comparison.