Wednesday
Sep092009
The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised
Wednesday, September 9, 2009 at 15:44
NOW POSTED Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday's Prayers
Iran: Mousavi Statement on Arrests of Top Opposition Advisors
Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
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2220 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President (Continued)? Earlier today (1125 GMT) we noted that the head of judiciary seemed to be aiming at those who went "beyond the law" because of the "false claim" of electoral fraud. Another snippet of the interview is even more dramatic, as Larijani denounces those who have brought “great costs to the Islamic system" with their opposition.
2020 GMT: More on Ayatollahs Take a Stand? (1540 GMT) Some interesting developments from the Sunday meeting of senior clerics in Qom that we have been following. Ayatollah Golpaygani wrote a letter criticising the Ahmadinejad Cabinet; the Supreme Leader replied sharply, effectively prohibiting the Ayatollah from "interfering" in Government issues. Meanwhile, the Qom meeting has asked Grand Ayatollah Sistani, based in Najaf in Iraq, to travel to Iran for discussions and Grand Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani has expressed regret for congratulating Ahmadinejad on his election victory.
2010 GMT: Report that Sadegh Noroozi, head of political council of the Mojahedin-Enghelab party, has been released.
1850 GMT: Bemoans?! Our friends at Press TV show their respect for the Mousavi statement: "Mousavi bemoans arrest of top aides, urges calm".
1840 GMT: Remember our emerging assessment that the biggest challenge for President Ahmadinejad may be governing Iran, especially handling the economy, rather than confronting the opposition? This from Press TV: "The value of Iran's oil products exports has plunged by 51 percentage points in the first half of the current Iranian year due to the global economic downturn."
1815 GMT: A Correction. We reported earlier (0920 GMT) that Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was arrested yesterday. In fact, there has been no confirmation of Baghi's arrest although the Association's offices were shut down.
1810 GMT: Quick! Look Over There! I suspect international media will be absorbed by this story, rather than any international developments in Iran, until the Supreme Leader's speech on Friday. From Press TV: "Amid international calls on Iran to engage the West over its nuclear program, the country presents the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany with its latest package of proposals to tackle global issues."
1800 GMT: CNNFail/TwitterSuccess. I know, I risk being repetitive but this exchange, over the arrest of Alireza Beheshti, has to be noted to be believed:
(1330 GMT) verypissedoff: Why are CNN & ABC silent? #iranelection Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained
[The Reuters story was posted at 1251 GMT. Enduring America ran it as an urgent update, following Twitter to the Mowj-e-Sabz website, at 1945 GMT on Wednesday.]
(1655 GMT) rosemaryCNN Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained, website says
Despite the fact that Rosemary Church, one of CNN's anchors, finally acknowledged the story almost 24 hours after it happened, CNN's website still has no reference to the far-from-minor development.
This is in no way a slapdown of Rosemary Church, who does good work and has used Twitter (unlike others in the media) to interact with others rather than for self-promotion of her and her network. However, based on the last 72 hours, let alone the last three months, I will take my stand against anyone who says Twitter is merely a diversion which should be set aside in the work of "real" journalists.
1540 GMT: Ayatollahs Taking a Stand? We reported on Monday about a meeting in Qom of several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics including, Ayatollahs Golpaygani, Makarem-Shirazi, Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, on “practical steps against the coup government”. Now the Green movement's website, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that the clerics are pressing their challenge against an "illegitimate" government, including its selection of female ministers, despite an attempt by the Supreme Leader through Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi to check the opposition.
1420 GMT: We have posted a translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement on the arrest of Mousavi and Karroubi advisors in a separate entry.
1400 GMT: Another Arrest. In addition to the detentions on Tuesday of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, Karroubi advisor Morteza Alviri, Etemade Melli website editor Mohammad Davari, security forces arrested Mohammad Ozlati-Moqaddam, a former IRGC commander and head of the veteran’s faction of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign, at his home.
Ozlati-Moqaddam, who formerly served in the IRGC political bureau alongside Hossein Shariatmadari and Hossein Safar-Harandi, was arrested on Tuesday.
1330 GMT: A slow period has been broken by the latest statement from Mir Hossein Mousavi. Condemning the arrests of Alireza Beheshti, his top advisor, and Mortreza Alviri, Mehdi Karroubi’s top advisor, he warns people that “more difficult” days are on the way and advising them to be calm and remain careful and alert. At the same time, Mousavi is asking them to not be intimidated by "the coup government", as the regime's "pathetic acts" are doomed to fail like their previous efforts.
1140 GMT: Hours before he was arrested yesterday, Mehdi Karroubi's aide Morteza Alviri, who was also a member of the Karroubi-Mousavi committees investigating detentions, gave an interview to Rooz Online (translation by HomyLafayette):
The regime's actions have pushed political activity out of parties and into homes and within the population....Silence is not acquiescence. There is a bomb within the hearts of the people, and it can explode at any time....I still believe that fraud took place in the election. The country is in a state of martial law.
1125 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President? The head of Iran's judiciary has said that the "false claim" of election fraud led some people to go "beyond the law", adding, "The life of our social system is dependent on law enforcement."
Larijani was vague beyond this, for example, on detentions and trials, but I wonder if the statement could be read as implicit acceptance of the Ahmadinejad line.
1040 GMT: It's All about Us (outside Iran). The perils of an attention span which is all about what Iran means for "us" rather than what is happening inside Iran is all too clear in Simon Tisdall's blunt statement today in The Guardian of London: "If anyone still wonders what happened to the Iranian revolution of 2009, the answer is: the hardliners won."
Even a quick glance at EA's analyses, and those of other sites like Anonymous Iran and Keeping the Change, complicates Tisdall's assertions. Who exactly are his "hardliners"? Ahmadinejad? The Revolutionary Guard? The Supreme Leader? All of the above? And has the opposition just evaporated in the face of measures such as yesterday's raids?
These are trifles, however, because Tisdall is not really concerned with anything beyond a superficial reference to the internal situation. His focus is "the difficulties inherent in dealing with Tehran". Nuclear programme. Sanctions. "Soft power". All of which leads him into the cul-de-sac:
As bleak as the picture may be in Iran after the last 48 hours, it's far better than this simplifying of "our" options by reducing the Iranian people to bystanders and pawns.
0920 GMT: A Far-from-Incidental Note. The Mousavi-led Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners and Mehdi Karroubi's operations were not the only organisations targeted in the last 48 hours. Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was also arrested yesterday. Baghi's office was searched and documents and equipment were taken by security forces.
0825 GMT: MediaWatch. Both New York Times and Washington Post have articles on yesterday's raid of Karroubi offices, although they only briefly mention the later arrest of Alireza Beheshti. The Los Angeles Times, normally in the lead of US-based coverage, get tangled up: anxious to feature their journalistic coup of an interview with Mehdi Karroubi, they reduce news of the raids and arrests of his staff to an insert paragraph.
CNN, continuing its poor coverage even as its correspondents pile onto Twitter to promote themselves, do not notice the Beheshti arrest. Al Jazeera also misses the Beheshti news, however, and the BBC, however, is even worse: distracted by Iran's promotional claim that it is submitting proposals on its nuclear programme today, they see nothing at all inside Iran.
0820 GMT: It appears that, with its offices raided and its editor-in-chief arrested, the Etemade Melli website (which includes Saham News) is suspended. There have been no new posts since 3:25 p.m. local time yesterday.
0800 GMT: The Mousavi response to the raid on their office and later arrest of chief advisor Alireza Beheshti? This was posted three hours ago on Facebook: "Coup gov.! We R the Media & wont let our leaders be taken hostage silently.Go Green & Bring #iranelection back on top:World will be watching /"
0750 GMT: Almost lost in yesterday's chaos was the statement of the commander of the Navy of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Rear Admiral Morteza Saffari, pressing the foreign-led "soft war" pretext: “Iran's great territory, population, military might, and unique geographical location in the Middle East have turned it into a strong power, and political experts in Western countries know that they cannot overwhelm Iran by launching a military attack or hard war."
Saffari claimed that a “media war” had stirred up “civil disobedience”, asserting, “The US strategy to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on soft measures," even as it continues threats to launch a military attack.
The rhetoric is far from new, of course. What is significant is how the IRGC is pushing it less than a week after the Supreme Leader denied that foreign powers were able to pursue their "soft war" because of the strength of the Iranian system.
0730 GMT: It looks like folks in Iran are picking up the pieces from yesterday's dramatic events, so we've spent the time on a detailed analysis, "Ahmadinejad's 'All-In' Move", considering the significance of the raids and arrests. Our easier conclusion is that this is an attempt to break the Green movement and back down Hashemi Rafsanjani. The tricker reading is whether the President and Revolutionary Guard have done this as an assertion of authority against the Supreme Leader. We'll be debating this throughout the day (and beyond) and welcome your comments and ideas.
Josh Shahryar is also working on an analysis for a high-profile publication; we'll keep you posted on when it appears. Meanwhile, his latest "Green Brief" summarising Tuesday's events is out.
Iran: Mousavi Statement on Arrests of Top Opposition Advisors
Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
Iran Urgent Analysis: Is This the Defining Showdown?
The Latest from Iran (8 September): Picking A Fight?
Iran: Ahmadinejad Chooses Confrontation Over Compromise and Governing
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2220 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President (Continued)? Earlier today (1125 GMT) we noted that the head of judiciary seemed to be aiming at those who went "beyond the law" because of the "false claim" of electoral fraud. Another snippet of the interview is even more dramatic, as Larijani denounces those who have brought “great costs to the Islamic system" with their opposition.
2020 GMT: More on Ayatollahs Take a Stand? (1540 GMT) Some interesting developments from the Sunday meeting of senior clerics in Qom that we have been following. Ayatollah Golpaygani wrote a letter criticising the Ahmadinejad Cabinet; the Supreme Leader replied sharply, effectively prohibiting the Ayatollah from "interfering" in Government issues. Meanwhile, the Qom meeting has asked Grand Ayatollah Sistani, based in Najaf in Iraq, to travel to Iran for discussions and Grand Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani has expressed regret for congratulating Ahmadinejad on his election victory.
2010 GMT: Report that Sadegh Noroozi, head of political council of the Mojahedin-Enghelab party, has been released.
1850 GMT: Bemoans?! Our friends at Press TV show their respect for the Mousavi statement: "Mousavi bemoans arrest of top aides, urges calm".
1840 GMT: Remember our emerging assessment that the biggest challenge for President Ahmadinejad may be governing Iran, especially handling the economy, rather than confronting the opposition? This from Press TV: "The value of Iran's oil products exports has plunged by 51 percentage points in the first half of the current Iranian year due to the global economic downturn."
1815 GMT: A Correction. We reported earlier (0920 GMT) that Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was arrested yesterday. In fact, there has been no confirmation of Baghi's arrest although the Association's offices were shut down.
1810 GMT: Quick! Look Over There! I suspect international media will be absorbed by this story, rather than any international developments in Iran, until the Supreme Leader's speech on Friday. From Press TV: "Amid international calls on Iran to engage the West over its nuclear program, the country presents the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany with its latest package of proposals to tackle global issues."
1800 GMT: CNNFail/TwitterSuccess. I know, I risk being repetitive but this exchange, over the arrest of Alireza Beheshti, has to be noted to be believed:
(1330 GMT) verypissedoff: Why are CNN & ABC silent? #iranelection Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained
[The Reuters story was posted at 1251 GMT. Enduring America ran it as an urgent update, following Twitter to the Mowj-e-Sabz website, at 1945 GMT on Wednesday.]
(1655 GMT) rosemaryCNN Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained, website says
Despite the fact that Rosemary Church, one of CNN's anchors, finally acknowledged the story almost 24 hours after it happened, CNN's website still has no reference to the far-from-minor development.
This is in no way a slapdown of Rosemary Church, who does good work and has used Twitter (unlike others in the media) to interact with others rather than for self-promotion of her and her network. However, based on the last 72 hours, let alone the last three months, I will take my stand against anyone who says Twitter is merely a diversion which should be set aside in the work of "real" journalists.
1540 GMT: Ayatollahs Taking a Stand? We reported on Monday about a meeting in Qom of several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics including, Ayatollahs Golpaygani, Makarem-Shirazi, Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, on “practical steps against the coup government”. Now the Green movement's website, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that the clerics are pressing their challenge against an "illegitimate" government, including its selection of female ministers, despite an attempt by the Supreme Leader through Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi to check the opposition.
1420 GMT: We have posted a translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement on the arrest of Mousavi and Karroubi advisors in a separate entry.
1400 GMT: Another Arrest. In addition to the detentions on Tuesday of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, Karroubi advisor Morteza Alviri, Etemade Melli website editor Mohammad Davari, security forces arrested Mohammad Ozlati-Moqaddam, a former IRGC commander and head of the veteran’s faction of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign, at his home.
Ozlati-Moqaddam, who formerly served in the IRGC political bureau alongside Hossein Shariatmadari and Hossein Safar-Harandi, was arrested on Tuesday.
1330 GMT: A slow period has been broken by the latest statement from Mir Hossein Mousavi. Condemning the arrests of Alireza Beheshti, his top advisor, and Mortreza Alviri, Mehdi Karroubi’s top advisor, he warns people that “more difficult” days are on the way and advising them to be calm and remain careful and alert. At the same time, Mousavi is asking them to not be intimidated by "the coup government", as the regime's "pathetic acts" are doomed to fail like their previous efforts.
1140 GMT: Hours before he was arrested yesterday, Mehdi Karroubi's aide Morteza Alviri, who was also a member of the Karroubi-Mousavi committees investigating detentions, gave an interview to Rooz Online (translation by HomyLafayette):
The regime's actions have pushed political activity out of parties and into homes and within the population....Silence is not acquiescence. There is a bomb within the hearts of the people, and it can explode at any time....I still believe that fraud took place in the election. The country is in a state of martial law.
1125 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President? The head of Iran's judiciary has said that the "false claim" of election fraud led some people to go "beyond the law", adding, "The life of our social system is dependent on law enforcement."
Larijani was vague beyond this, for example, on detentions and trials, but I wonder if the statement could be read as implicit acceptance of the Ahmadinejad line.
1040 GMT: It's All about Us (outside Iran). The perils of an attention span which is all about what Iran means for "us" rather than what is happening inside Iran is all too clear in Simon Tisdall's blunt statement today in The Guardian of London: "If anyone still wonders what happened to the Iranian revolution of 2009, the answer is: the hardliners won."
Even a quick glance at EA's analyses, and those of other sites like Anonymous Iran and Keeping the Change, complicates Tisdall's assertions. Who exactly are his "hardliners"? Ahmadinejad? The Revolutionary Guard? The Supreme Leader? All of the above? And has the opposition just evaporated in the face of measures such as yesterday's raids?
These are trifles, however, because Tisdall is not really concerned with anything beyond a superficial reference to the internal situation. His focus is "the difficulties inherent in dealing with Tehran". Nuclear programme. Sanctions. "Soft power". All of which leads him into the cul-de-sac:
One is to admit the Israelis may be right in arguing that military action is the only sure way to hinder or stop Iran's nuclear advances. The other is to do nothing – and hope that Iran's repeated assurances that it does not seek the atom bomb are true.
As bleak as the picture may be in Iran after the last 48 hours, it's far better than this simplifying of "our" options by reducing the Iranian people to bystanders and pawns.
0920 GMT: A Far-from-Incidental Note. The Mousavi-led Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners and Mehdi Karroubi's operations were not the only organisations targeted in the last 48 hours. Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was also arrested yesterday. Baghi's office was searched and documents and equipment were taken by security forces.
0825 GMT: MediaWatch. Both New York Times and Washington Post have articles on yesterday's raid of Karroubi offices, although they only briefly mention the later arrest of Alireza Beheshti. The Los Angeles Times, normally in the lead of US-based coverage, get tangled up: anxious to feature their journalistic coup of an interview with Mehdi Karroubi, they reduce news of the raids and arrests of his staff to an insert paragraph.
CNN, continuing its poor coverage even as its correspondents pile onto Twitter to promote themselves, do not notice the Beheshti arrest. Al Jazeera also misses the Beheshti news, however, and the BBC, however, is even worse: distracted by Iran's promotional claim that it is submitting proposals on its nuclear programme today, they see nothing at all inside Iran.
0820 GMT: It appears that, with its offices raided and its editor-in-chief arrested, the Etemade Melli website (which includes Saham News) is suspended. There have been no new posts since 3:25 p.m. local time yesterday.
0800 GMT: The Mousavi response to the raid on their office and later arrest of chief advisor Alireza Beheshti? This was posted three hours ago on Facebook: "Coup gov.! We R the Media & wont let our leaders be taken hostage silently.Go Green & Bring #iranelection back on top:World will be watching /"
0750 GMT: Almost lost in yesterday's chaos was the statement of the commander of the Navy of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Rear Admiral Morteza Saffari, pressing the foreign-led "soft war" pretext: “Iran's great territory, population, military might, and unique geographical location in the Middle East have turned it into a strong power, and political experts in Western countries know that they cannot overwhelm Iran by launching a military attack or hard war."
Saffari claimed that a “media war” had stirred up “civil disobedience”, asserting, “The US strategy to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on soft measures," even as it continues threats to launch a military attack.
The rhetoric is far from new, of course. What is significant is how the IRGC is pushing it less than a week after the Supreme Leader denied that foreign powers were able to pursue their "soft war" because of the strength of the Iranian system.
0730 GMT: It looks like folks in Iran are picking up the pieces from yesterday's dramatic events, so we've spent the time on a detailed analysis, "Ahmadinejad's 'All-In' Move", considering the significance of the raids and arrests. Our easier conclusion is that this is an attempt to break the Green movement and back down Hashemi Rafsanjani. The tricker reading is whether the President and Revolutionary Guard have done this as an assertion of authority against the Supreme Leader. We'll be debating this throughout the day (and beyond) and welcome your comments and ideas.
Josh Shahryar is also working on an analysis for a high-profile publication; we'll keep you posted on when it appears. Meanwhile, his latest "Green Brief" summarising Tuesday's events is out.
tagged "The Green Brief", Al Jazeera, Alireza Beheshti, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Lotfollah Safi Golpaygani, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani, BBC, CNN, Emadeddine Baghi, Etemade Melli, Facebook, Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, Iran, Iran Election 2009, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Josh Shahryar, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Davari, Mohammad Ozlati-Moqaddam, Mojahedin-Enghelab, Morteza Alviri, New York Times, Press TV, Reuters, Rosemary Church, Sadegh Noroozi, Saham News, Simon Tisdall, The Guardian, Washington Post in Middle East & Iran
"The Green Brief", Al Jazeera, Alireza Beheshti, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Lotfollah Safi Golpaygani, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani, BBC, CNN, Emadeddine Baghi, Etemade Melli, Facebook, Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, Iran, Iran Election 2009, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Josh Shahryar, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Davari, Mohammad Ozlati-Moqaddam, Mojahedin-Enghelab, Morteza Alviri, New York Times, Press TV, Reuters, Rosemary Church, Sadegh Noroozi, Saham News, Simon Tisdall, The Guardian, Washington Post in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (45)
Can I ask for the source of the Emadeddine Baghi news? I haven't seen it anywhere.
Pedestrian,
Sorry, AFP from Norooz had news of Baghi arrest. Link added in story.
S.
I've seen this on Norooz:
http://norooznews.org/news/13830.php
which reports that the Association for the Defense of Prisoners was shut down. But nothing on Baghi. They just write that the news will be updated. Thanks for the Iranquest link, I'll go bug them now ;-)
Looking at the latest movements I am beginning to believe more and more that indeed the S.L must be terminally ill and does not have long left in him. This would mean that unlike the Green's and Hashemi, the Guards do not have the luxuary to waste even a second. If the Supreme leader was to pass away it could mean a HUGE risk for the Guards, the Expediancy council being led by Hashemi and him having a majority vote there and also the fact that the guards have openly attacked the old establishment it is almost a given that the selection of the new leader would pose a serious threat to their plans.
This make alot of sense to me why in times where one would not expect them to, the Guards keep provoking, instead of laying low they keep throwing more and more oil on the fire which one would expect them to be wanting to die. These actions make alot of sense as their futur and existence is relying on them winning the battle BEFORE the S.L dies. This also would explain the somewhat relaxed, passive role the oppposition has taken. They might just be wanting to create the right atmosphere for the real battle to come.
The Guards on the other hand know they must act now, they need to provoke, they need to gain ground NOW, as there maybe no tommorow.
For me this is still very much a chess game, and the Greens and Hashemi have put their pieces in a defensive mode just trying not to lose any ground and making the Guards make all the moves, look for opening and infact FORCE openings.
My very first post on EA started with a Napoleon quote, Our Victory is in the mistakes of our opponents and that still seems to be the case for the green's and Hashemi. Just cosolidating power and waiting for mistakes and the right moment to open their attacks.
With each mistake and each fierce attack the Guards make, with each leak of Info, each story of the horrific acts happening in prison etc. they are gaining more support for the day the new S.L is to be named.
This is just a possible scenario, same as many we have ventured into the last weeks but looking at the actions of each player in the last few weeks this very much makes sence.
But then again if everything that made sence had happened in Iran during the last decades, we'd have a complete diffrent Iran today.
Pedestrian,
Appreciated. Please post us with update.
S.
Michael Ledeen reported that Khamenei had lung cancer and less than a year to live in 2006. A year later he duly broke the news that the SL had died. At the time it was reported that he had suffered from cancer for five years.
In the UK only 8% of people with lung cancer live UP TO 5 years after diagnosis. Only 25% live for more than 1 year. According to these reports, Khamenei has gone for almost 8
So I am skeptical. Firstly, he would not be able to speak properly (let alone give a sermon) if he had even slightly advanced lung cancer. Secondly, we are not yet seeing frantic manoeuvring for the succession- though it has been bubbling away in the background.
I'm more inclined to believe that he is paralysed by indecision and a lack of political imagination. Though it is widely reported that he suffers from extreme bouts of depression- which is indeed debilitating and would make him totally unsuited to dealing pro-actively during a crisis of confidence.
Karim Sadjadpour links his depression to his "inability to make difficult questions" here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/13250515/-Reading-Khamenei-The-World-View-of-Irans-Most-Powerful-Leader
@Scott
On september 7th you posted "Fars News reports that Press TV will soon air a “roundtable” of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on the causes of their “change of attitude and intellectual development”.
There are so many articles and analysis to read the last few days, did I overlook this roundtable or it didn't take place yet?
ChrisE, in Iran, it's been rumored the past few years that he suffered from some sort of prostate cancer, but of course, it was never denied or verified. And I wouldn't believe anything Michael Ledeen told me, even if he was telling me my name.
I have also heard Leukaemia
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090803/sarfaraz
It may well be true- earlier in the regime posted photos of the SL on long walks in northern Iran, where apparently he also swam in various rivers- does seem slightly defensive effort to quash rumours of his ill health.
I think my real point is that in sickeness or in health the SL's cautious decision making style and slow and carefully calibrated behind the scenes work is unsuited to the current power plays we are seeing in Iran.
Ledeen is a joker.
Nelly,
The roundtable did take place. I believe we posted a brief note and link about it in yesterday's updates.
S.
It is confirmed and common knowledge that the supremer leader has
1) Deep depression caused by his addiction to pain killers and opium, prescribed to him for his injured and paralysed right arm
2) Suffered from a collapsed lung and shrapnel in his right lung post explosion that nearly killed him in 1983
3) Has been weened off Opium, with multiple surgeries to address the phantom pain he had in his right arm
4) Has had prostate cancer, but had his prostate removed and cancer treated
5) Takes long walks up the hills of Tehran, which means he is in reasonable shape with decent lung capacity.
All in all inconclusive evidence either way to assess his health one way or the other... All in all with all the facts, it seems that he has bouts of depression, disappears for weeks sometimes from public life, however the cancer seems to be in check. The lung cancer thing has been a long running rumor, so we don't know one way or the other to believe it or to not.
I personally think that he is a dog and will live for a good 10 more years. This man does nothing but sit there, eat, shit and think up of new and innovative ways to screw Iran. So in such a case, why would he die? I think he believes he is in heaven already....
However the facts aside, what Afshin was eluding to, is whether the guards for some reason or other feel their plan needs to be executed in a limited time fashion.. Lets remove Khamanei's health from the equation and then look at the problem.
Why do the guards feel they need to maintain momentum and time lines and complete their victory over the reformers in a timely fashion?
a) They are pressed for time and believe a major event will happen shortly that will weaken them
b) They know something no one else does
I have repeatedly talked of the unknown too, a joker that will upset the status quo, as this is always an integral part of the post revolution Iranian politics, however, it may be that they feel the best defence is an offense and that the best way to win is to maintain momentum. In the past 12 weeks the guards have got all that they have aimed for, so why stop doing what has worked now?
Rafsanjani needs a big opening, and he needs to move or else I fear the next time someone is arrested, it will be his party offices or his sons / daughters... Will he wait to be given the big opening through a mistake or will he try and make it for himself? Historically Rafsanjani has been the go to guy when the regime is in deep waters. This time they turned him down, so it increasingly looks like the Shark is not able to swim with the new fish.... He does not know how to respond perhaps, given the situation.
The news bulletin section at Tehran Bureau reports Behesti has been hospitalized following a severe beating and fractured skull after his arrest. According to that report when he woke up he was punched in the face.
Meanwhile check out what a niac blog report on what allegedly happened to Atefeh Iman as part of Khameni's recent campaign targeting the children of prominent
reformers.
"Atefeh, the 18 year old daughter of Javad Imam (Mousavi’s
imprisoned campaign Chief of Staff), after had been kidnapped and
detained in an undisclosed location for nearly 28 hours was set free
around dusk near Tehran’s cemetery yesterday in bad condition and
without any money while her purse was taken! She was under pressure to
“confess” to having unethical relations with some of the imprisoned
political activists!"
Afshin and Whereismyvote,
Your Wildcard/Joker #1 :Barak Obama. The US recently sent Khamenei a second letter. I would bet it says all future negotiations are to be conducted between the White House and the Office of the Supreme Leader.
Thomas,
Which would lead to the critical question- who would the SL select as his representative and where would they stand in the venn diagram of Iran's political system?
Am I the only one who thinks this might now be a zero-sum game? For all sides (except MAYBE The Shark), it's total victory or total annihilation?
And if you're Ahmadi and the SL, "defeat" could have very bad consequences (Romania '89). No wonder they're "all in."
@ Thomas
Obama did say explicitly during even the presidential election campaign in USA that he is not to negotiate with AN but rather the SL. If I was to take a guess for the head of such initiative, I would say expect Saeed Jalili appointed by SL to deal with the US / Iran file.
This event in itself will not be the significant event I am considering. This will only cause a solidification of the status quo and not the catalytic shift needed.
Chris,
I don't know. I am relying on our Iranian friends and EA for more info on personalities. This give SL a significant card for domestic politics (Sept 11 prayer speech on opening dialogue with USA?).
My view is SL was with the Revolutionary Coup (Ahmadinejad, Jafari, Mesbah-Yazdi) until he saw the consquences. Unfortunately for him, he lost the most from this fiasco in legitmacy and respect.
I agree with Scott's earlier post on the All In option the Rev coup leaders are taking. SL needs counter in same way or form.
I also agree with your earlier on his decision making process.
Where is my vote,
Understand. The big political, historical and domestic prize in Iran could well be to those who normalize relations with US. A wild card for the SL, but does he have the ability to play?
My fear with Mahmoud div and the Rev Coup gang is they are acting like the Bolsheviks only more vicious, crude and stupid. Then again their true power is in the gun and the willingness to use it. Are they capable of a mass slaughter on the streets? Would it work now in the 21st century?
The important events we await will be the next two fridays. Like we have said it will be a long process.
Looks like there's a lot to catch up on today. Posting a couple of links before digging in:
This one related to the recent discussion of Pasdaran & telecom industry:
http://homylafayette.blogspot.com/2009/09/irgc-telecom-purchase.html" rel="nofollow">The Revolutionary Guards make a grab for Iran's telecom
Scott, this WSJ op-ed belongs in your bizarre media fetish collection:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052970203440104574400792835972018.html" rel="nofollow">The Emerging Axis of Iran and Venezuela
I'm afraid I should agree with mahasti's comment .
It seems , that from long ago , a group of ruthless thugs in IRGC and some corrupted sick minded clerics like Mesbah Yazdi and a more obscure third mafia group ( who pushed Ahmadinejad) have been planning and putting in place the nightmare scenario that we are living and as "observer" said : SL is nothing but a wind up toy . By deliberately letting the leak of some horrendous information about their atrocities , they have showed that they have no principals , no limits in their savagery and no one can be spared and thus have shocked and terrified the people who could be their only real adversary . having quietened the protests , they have cleared the path to get to the big heads of the reformists and they would have no scruples in executing them if it served their cause.
The problem is that the opposition is playing chess while the government and it's allies are playing a war game .
Unfortunately such government having the weakness of not being popular and having the vice of being corrupted and incompetent is more profitable to other countries like Russia and even the US ; and so they may choose certain policies as to consolidate A.N's government .
Accepting the reality and knowing the demon, makes one fight it better and broadens the chance of winning sooner.
Since mind can succeed over matter , the question would be : How can we "wisely" fight this demon ?
I do have a long-term thought. Picking up on my own comment on the Mousavi statement posting, suppose Iran becomes Burma, a totalitarian state dominated by Pasdaran. They will have gained power by a) total suppression and b) widespread killings/arrests.
So, they have power, but ZERO legitimacy. With a populus that really despises you, how do you govern? I'm not sure you can. In the end, Iran would be severely weakened.
Iran is no Burma and here is a few reasons why
1) close to 6 million dissidents living abroad means no way of shutting off the population at home
2) Education close to 95% amongst the under 30 and 2% of the population with a post secondary degree
3) Strategically integrated to Asia and Middle East not isolated as per case of Burma
4) No history of Military rule until 3 months ago
The model you should look at is something close to China model, with elements of Putin Russia. There will be multi party rule, but effectively only one party. There will be a rotational presidency but selection rather than an election process. There will be strong government control over key industry and sectors, not always through public companies but through quasi public / private enterprise (Gazpron et. al) . The old military guards will be encouraged to become the new capitalist / industrialists of the future generation. There will be controlled, planned opening to the west. Ideology will be used to serve the means of this plan not the other way around.
MD,
Ever read Gene Sharp's "From Dictatorship to Democracy"? The Iranian Intelligence services have and it scares the hell out of them. That is why they mentioned him in the TV trials, reflecting the Rev Coup's pyschology. It is pamphlet with methods for a non-violent path of resistance learned fronm hard experience. Iran would be a prime example of country ready to make the change: people willing to stand up, democratic institutions (Iranians agree on a Republic(?)) and a truly loathed Govt.
I think if the Iranians stand up to the Coup, in the end Russia and US would be willing to work together against AN.
Also be prepared for the use of violence against you and selective force to fight back.
Amy,
Great minds think alike! I have a draft ready to bring out all the wonder of the WSJ editorial --- it goes up in the morning.
S.
kevina
Someone suggested a Russia/China model... how about if Putin ran China? Somehow I think that's the Pasdaran vision, but it's not what they would get if they succeed. The continued use of Burma tactics results in, well, Burma, not to technological & economic development. I'm not mentioning the welfare of the people bec AN/Pasdaran obviously don't care. The question is what do they think they are accomplishing, and what kind of country they think they will have in the end?