Wednesday
Feb182009
Mr Obama's World: Latest Alerts in US Foreign Policy (18 January)
Wednesday, February 18, 2009 at 17:43
Latest Post: Is Israel Winning A Covert War Against Iran? - An Alternative View
Latest Post: Update - The US Airbases Inside Pakistan
Latest Post: War on Terror Watch: Guantanamo Guard Brandon Neely Interview
Latest Post: Fudging the Decision - The Obama Statement on The Troop Increase in Afghanistan
Current Obamameter Reading: Forecast Uncertain
Afternoon Update (5 p.m.): All's Well That Ends Well. Afghan President Hamid Karzai says, "The tension the Afghan government had with the U.S. government is now over." Last week Karzai was the leader that Washington was going to push aside, but all it took, apparently, was the addition of Afghans to the US strategic review and a phone call from President Obama to make everything right:
12:20 p.m. Video footage has confirmed that a US airstrike in Afghanistan on Monday, which the US military claimed had killed "Taliban", left at least one child dead. Afghan officials claim that 12 civilians --- six women, twq children, and four men --- died in the attack.
8:20 a.m. An Initiative from Damascus. Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad, following the Gaza conflict and the advent of the Obama Administration, has set out his own vision of "engagement". He has eagerly welcomed the US as the "main arbiter" in the Middle East peace process, saying he expects the US to send an Ambassador to Syria soon.
We hope to analyse this in a separate entry later today.
8 a.m. Speaking of Iraq, "a senior Administration official" is putting out the story that Obama will decide within weeks, "not days or months", on the drawdown of combat troops.
7:35 a.m. Oh, to be a fly on the wall: Vice President Joe Biden has a closed-door meeting with the departing US Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, today.
Crocker has been actively backing the US military as it tries to undercut the Obama plan to withdraw combat troops from Iraq within 16 months, and he was also a vocal critic of Biden's post-2003 proposal for a "federal" Iraq divided amongst Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurdish areas.
7:20 a.m. A far-from-incidental footnote to the news of the troop increase. Yesterday President Obama spoke with Afghan President Hamid Karzai for the first time since his Inauguration. No details on the talk, but I assume that Obama, having joined in his Administration's public blasting of Karzai over the last month, was trying to smooth relations as the American plans unfold.
Morning Update (6:15 a.m. GMT; 1;15 a.m. Washington): The headlines this morning are of President Obama's decision to increase US troops in Afghanistan, which we evaluated last night. The total appears to be just under 21,000 troops, if the Army brigade sent out to Afghanistan last month is included; the military request was for 30,000. The breakdown includes:
An Army brigade of about 3700 troops in eastern Afghanistan (already deployed);
8000 Marines from Camp Lejeune, North Carolina;
An Army "Stryker" brigade of 4000 troops;
5000 support troops.
Our evaluation is unchanged: contrary to the media reports you will get today, Obama has not indicated a clear strategy with this decision, and I even doubt that the decision has been prompted by the fear of a Taliban "spring offensive". It is motivated more by the recognition that he cannot hold out any longer against the military's request, for the sake of harmony within his Administration and for domestic opinion. The strategic front is still the 60-day review which is now being led by Obama envoy Richard Holbrooke and Obama campaign advisor Bruce Riedel, with supposed Afghan participation.
Latest Post: Update - The US Airbases Inside Pakistan
Latest Post: War on Terror Watch: Guantanamo Guard Brandon Neely Interview
Latest Post: Fudging the Decision - The Obama Statement on The Troop Increase in Afghanistan
Current Obamameter Reading: Forecast Uncertain
Afternoon Update (5 p.m.): All's Well That Ends Well. Afghan President Hamid Karzai says, "The tension the Afghan government had with the U.S. government is now over." Last week Karzai was the leader that Washington was going to push aside, but all it took, apparently, was the addition of Afghans to the US strategic review and a phone call from President Obama to make everything right:
"The tension was over civilian casualties and uncoordinated operations by foreign troops. From now on, no foreign troop operations will be uncoordinated with Afghan forces.
12:20 p.m. Video footage has confirmed that a US airstrike in Afghanistan on Monday, which the US military claimed had killed "Taliban", left at least one child dead. Afghan officials claim that 12 civilians --- six women, twq children, and four men --- died in the attack.
8:20 a.m. An Initiative from Damascus. Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad, following the Gaza conflict and the advent of the Obama Administration, has set out his own vision of "engagement". He has eagerly welcomed the US as the "main arbiter" in the Middle East peace process, saying he expects the US to send an Ambassador to Syria soon.
We hope to analyse this in a separate entry later today.
8 a.m. Speaking of Iraq, "a senior Administration official" is putting out the story that Obama will decide within weeks, "not days or months", on the drawdown of combat troops.
7:35 a.m. Oh, to be a fly on the wall: Vice President Joe Biden has a closed-door meeting with the departing US Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, today.
Crocker has been actively backing the US military as it tries to undercut the Obama plan to withdraw combat troops from Iraq within 16 months, and he was also a vocal critic of Biden's post-2003 proposal for a "federal" Iraq divided amongst Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurdish areas.
7:20 a.m. A far-from-incidental footnote to the news of the troop increase. Yesterday President Obama spoke with Afghan President Hamid Karzai for the first time since his Inauguration. No details on the talk, but I assume that Obama, having joined in his Administration's public blasting of Karzai over the last month, was trying to smooth relations as the American plans unfold.
Morning Update (6:15 a.m. GMT; 1;15 a.m. Washington): The headlines this morning are of President Obama's decision to increase US troops in Afghanistan, which we evaluated last night. The total appears to be just under 21,000 troops, if the Army brigade sent out to Afghanistan last month is included; the military request was for 30,000. The breakdown includes:
An Army brigade of about 3700 troops in eastern Afghanistan (already deployed);
8000 Marines from Camp Lejeune, North Carolina;
An Army "Stryker" brigade of 4000 troops;
5000 support troops.
Our evaluation is unchanged: contrary to the media reports you will get today, Obama has not indicated a clear strategy with this decision, and I even doubt that the decision has been prompted by the fear of a Taliban "spring offensive". It is motivated more by the recognition that he cannot hold out any longer against the military's request, for the sake of harmony within his Administration and for domestic opinion. The strategic front is still the 60-day review which is now being led by Obama envoy Richard Holbrooke and Obama campaign advisor Bruce Riedel, with supposed Afghan participation.
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