Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: And There Will Be Marches....

2118 GMT: The cynics said that the Syrian President was trying to buy time when he signed a deal two days ago with the Arab League. Today, the Syrian people tested the claims made by the regime, taking to the streets in nearly every major city and in every region across the country.

And now we have our answer from the regime: as many as 25 civilians are dead.

For two days, the video evidence, verified by shots of newspapers, protest signs, landmarks, and comparison against eyewitness accounts, has pointed towards a single conclusion. The Syrian military regime, led by Bashar al Assad, has no interest in negotiating, reforming, or ceding power. Today the regime sent two messages, as it showed that if you surrender then you may be spared, but if you continue to resist, we will shoot.

The first message was sent via State TV (SANA), but the regime has so little credibility that the US State Department advised Syrians not to take up Assad's offer of amnesty. The second message was sent with weapons, troops and tanks --- the instruments that the regime has used all along.

So, we have a return to a tag line we've written many times since March. The protesters, undeterred by violence, refuse to give in, the people want the "fall of the regime," and the regime, thus far, refuses to fall. So...what happens next?

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Middle East Special: Will the Monarchies Survive? (Al Qassemi)

Monarchs at the Gulf Co-operation CouncilThe transformation of Arab monarchies into constitutional systems is a matter ofwhen rather than if. The alternative may be less appealing to those in power today. On a recent visit to Boston in which I met a number of Arab Gulf states students, the debate veered, as it tends to do nowadays, towards Arab constitutional monarchies. To my surprise it was a Qatari, a citizen of by far the richest county on earth often accused of political apathy who remarked to a friend and I, “I don’t agree with constitutional monarchies,” he paused, “I want nothing less than a republic.”

Without urgent non-cosmetic reform the Arab monarchies will simply be kicking the reform ball forward.

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Iran-Israel War Talk: "Do We Always Have to Be Taken In By This Transparent Ploy?" (Sick)

We have been around this track many times before, with exactly the same level of manufactured hysteria, peaking with a campaign of sanctions and then just as mysteriously vanishing. 

How can you tell this is not the real thing? Well, if Israel were actually considering a highly dangerous strike on a well-armed enemy, would they be kicking the idea around for everyone to see?

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Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Hollow Declarations

See also Bahrain Feature: A New "Martyr"? The Death of Ali Hassan Al Daihi
Middle East Audio: Scott Lucas With Monocle Radio About Al Jazeera
Egypt Letter: Returning to Mubarak's Prisons (Alaa)
Wednesday's Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: The Catalyst of Alaa's Detention

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1747 GMT: The Bahrain Justice and Development Movement have posted an English-language account of the death of 70-year-old Ali Hassan Aldaihi, allegedly beaten by riot police as he returned home last night.

Aldaihi, the father of the Deputy Secretary General of the leading opposition party Al Wefaq, was found by his son. He was taken to hospital with head injuries but died at 12.30 a.m. after a cardiac arrest.

Aldaihi's home was attacked in September with rubber bullets fired into it.

1637 GMT: So, yesterday the Syrian government enters into an agreement with the Arab League, pledging among other things to withdraw troops and tanks and stop the bloodshed. What happened? A bloody day, with tanks deployed everywhere. Tomorrow, opposition groups are planning to put Assad's pledge to the test, with massive demonstrations scheduled in many locations. Many of our sources are buzzing that we may see protests in Damascus tomorrow. The Guardian's Martin Chulov thinks so too:

Two activists in Damascus said protests were being organised under a premise that nothing had changed. "Tomorrow [Friday] we will see how serious they are," one said. "I think they cannot afford to take the tanks from the streets just yet."

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Bahrain Feature: A New "Martyr"? The Death of Ali Hassan Al Daihi

Ali Hassan Al Daihi in HospitalIt appears tonight that Bahrain has another high-profile dispute over the death of a civilian, allegedly at the hands of riot police.

According to the opposition party Al Wefaq, the father of its Deputy Secretary General, Sheikh Hussain Al Daihi, was beaten on Wednesday night as he returned home. Ali Hassan Al Daihi, found on the floor of the house by one of his sons, said he had been assaulted --- his son tried to leave to confront the police but his dad stopped him. There was a deep wound on the back of Ali Hassan Al Daihi's head and bruises on his forehead and around his eyes. Blood was flowing from his mouth.

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Iran-Israel Opinion: Why Jerusalem Is Making War Noises

Israel and Iran are in the news again.

An anonymous source in the Israeli government told Ha'aretz yesterday that President Benjamin Netenyahu is trying to persuade the Israeli cabinet to authorize an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Although the same source claimed that the majority of the cabinet is against the idea, is it still a worrying sign?

Not quite.

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The Latest from Iran (3 November): Threats, Threats, More Threats

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2135 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. More on the alleged Presidential assault on his rivals from the pro-Ahmadinejad site Dolate Ma --- the President reportedly said he could reveal 10% of his information now and 25% in the future, but it was "not advisable" to disclose the rest.

Ahmadinejad added that the "day of regret is near" and said his foes are going to "apologise for accusing the Government": "The current situation is not normal; we are approaching the final showdown."

As for the current financial scandal, including the $2.6 billion bank embezzlement, the President said "people were dissatisfied" with those who "came barefoot from the south of town [the south of Tehran is the poorer section of the capital] and are billionaires now".

Ahmadinejad continued, "If you allow me to handle them in my way, I will rebuke [the political wrongdoers in 1 month. Even Europe and the US together can't bring the Government to its knees."

And now the sting in the tail, of interest to those who specialise in following the in-fighting in Tehran. Ahmadinejad said, "In 2009 'they' wanted to congratulate the opposition [on victory in the Presidential election]."

And who does Ahmadinejad mean by 'they'? Well, soon after the election, it was claimed --- by the camp of opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and later by other politicians --- that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani had told Mousavi on Election Day that he won the vote. Other reports said the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, also sent the message.

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Occupy Wall Street (and Beyond): Occupy Oakland March Through City and Port (Wollan)

Watch live streaming video from globalrevolution at livestream.com

LiveStream from Occupy Oakland

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UPDATE 0945 GMT: It appears that the situation is now a stand-off as police do not show an inclination to move --- at this time --- on the protesters' central location in the plaza in Oakland.

UPDATE 0815 GMT: Gary Aronsen of Mother Jones: "Loud bangs. People retreat from the plaza as some break windows of City Hall. Vandalism all over. People are pissed about it but can't stop it."

Joshua Holland of AlterNet: "At least five loud explosions."

It appears police have advanced about two blocks, pushing back demonstrators.

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Afghanistan Feature: US "Night Raids" Kill More than 1500 People in 10 Months (Porter)

UPDATE 1344 GMT: The Afghanistan International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has responded to this article, which we were sure would spark debate, on Twitter. Here is the conversation between EA's James Miller and @ISAFmedia.

ISAFmedia: That story is utterly false. Accurate civilian casualty numbers for that period in this report.

JMiller_EA: @ISAFmedia your stats, according to Porter - 6,282 dead in SOF night raids in 10 months. He's arguing that they aren't all insurgents...so, Porter is arguing that there are discrepancies between insurgents killed and total killed.

JMiller_EA: @ISAFmedia actually, I encourage you to see stats on original article. my mistake on "6282" number. [6,282 is the number of raids claimed over the period]

ISAFmedia: Methodology based on # of shots fired. Story says somebody dies every time a shot is fired. WRONG...@jmiller_ea It's ridiculous to state that a target dies every time a shot is fired, then base casualty totals on the number of gunshots.

JMiller_EA: @ISAFmedia somebody from ISAF leaked some very high, very confusing numbers bit.ly/sMLC8D and official report does not clarify...@ISAFmedia IPS is claiming that they got data from WaPo, leaked from ISAF bit.ly/sMLC8D [Some data was also obtained from the New York Times, but the ISP article doesn't contain a single hyperlink to the original source material.

ISAFmedia: @JMiller_EA Fact remains: His claim of 1500 civ dead in period cited is completely untrue... Official report cites the most accurate CIVCAS # available. No idea where they're getting this other info... act also remains: Insurgents cause +80% of CIVCAS. Any assumption that ISAF is leading cause is also utterly false

JMiller_EA: @ISAFmedia worth noting that EA reposted the article to spark this discussion. These are serious claims by major publication, IPS... IPS claim: "2,599 (targets) killed from May 2010 to mid-February 2011" in night raids. Accurate?

This conversation is, hopefully, not finished, as we'd like to properly investigate Porter's claims, and ISAF's response.

The original article by Gareth Porter is below:

Gareth Porter writes for Inter Press Service:

U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) killed well over 1,500 civilians in night raids in less than 10 months in 2010 and early 2011, analysis of official statistics on the raids released by the U.S.-NATO command reveals.

That number would make U.S. night raids by far the largest cause of civilian casualties in the war in Afghanistan. The report by the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan on civilian casualties in 2010 had said the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) by insurgents was the leading cause of civilian deaths, with 904.

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Iran Letter: Detained Attorney Sotoudeh to Her Children "You Need Freedom, Rule of Law, & Justice"

Nasrin Sotoudeh Outside a Court HearingI know that you require water, food, housing, a family, parents, love, and visits with your mother. However, just as much, you need freedom, social security, the rule of law, and justice. Please be aware that these concepts have not been easily achieved anywhere in the world. Nowhere in the world was the “law” upheld when written on torn sheets of paper. Our insistence on the rule of law is what brings the law to its existence. Thus, you should know that “you” and “I” are forming and building the law together. I kiss you thousands of times. I suffer from not having held you in months, and I hope that the suffering is not in vain.

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