Iran Analysis: Has Regime Risked Its Legitimacy By Blocking Rafsanjani?

Cartoon: Maya Neyestani

---

After the new President is declared on 21 June in the election which cannot be called a "free election", the bigger contest for the regime --- beset by economic problems, facing difficulties over its foreign policy and "Islamic Awakening", caught up in political rivalry --- remains....

How does it convince its people, many of them resigned to the decline of recent years, that its Islamic Republic is still legitimate?

Click to read more ...

Iran Analysis: 4 Key Questions as Guardian Council Decides Final List of Presidential Candidates

Iran's Guardian Council will tell the Minister of Interior today which Presidential hopefuls will be allowed to campaign for the 14 June election.

Almost all of the 686 who registered while be disqualified; however, a relatively large contingent of politicians, perhaps more than 30, will be accepted.

This means that --- with the Supreme Leader's camp unable to agree a "unity" candidate despite five months of effort --- we still will not have clarity on the three or four front-runners until next week, after other candidates have withdrawn and made endorsements.

We can make some educated guesses, however, based on the Guardian Council's white smoke and answers to these four questions:

1. Will Hashemi Rafsanjani Be Allowed to Run?

Click to read more ...

Iran Analysis: Presidential Election --- Good-bye Parties; Hello, Personalities and "Atomised Politics"

Registered candidates in the 2013 Presidential election

---

What does this shift from parties to personalities and atomised politics mean?

The easy notion of a Supreme Leader manipulating and shaping politics through his position and networks is under strain. Ayatollah Khamenei finds that he is not acting but reacting to the initiatives of others.

Click to read more ...

Iran Analysis: Correcting the Goldfish's View of a "Surprise" Presidential Election

If you started watching the Presidential contest on Friday, then this weekend's developments might have been surprising. However, if you started watching months ago --- and kept watching day-by-day --- the bigger picture would have prepared you for the so-called "surprise".

As we put the question last Wednesday, "Supreme Leader Losing Control of the Election?"

Click to read more ...

Iran Feature: Inside Story on How Supreme Leader Accepted Rafsanjani's Presidential Campaign

Rafsanjani & Supreme Leader in the 1980sAt 4 p.m., advisors told Hashemi Rafsanjani that if he was not going to register as a candidate, he should write a message to the people and let them know. The former President agreed to draft a satement; however, an hour later, the advisors told others, "Hurry up. Rafsanjani is setting off to the Interior Ministry to register."

What had changed?

Rafsanjani had consulted the Supreme Leader's office. He had received a "not negative" response --- not a definitive green light to run but also not a rejection.

Click to read more ...

Iran Today: Supreme Leader Losing Control of the Presidential Election?

See also EA's Guide To Iran's June 2013 Presidential Election
Iran Analysis: Presidential Election --- Rafsanjani and Khatami Put Supreme Leader in a Corner
Tuesday's Iran Today: The Presidential Campaign Formally Opens

---

Presidential Election Watch: Assessing Rafsanjani's Candidacy

A cryptic message on President Rafsanjani's website today: "Do not say no to the good prayers (wishes) of the people!"

Click to read more ...

Iran Analysis: Presidential Election --- Rafsanjani and Khatami Put Supreme Leader in a Corner

Hashemi Rafsanjani & Mohammad KhatamiEither Ayatollah Khamenei accepts former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's candidacy, which will shake up an already unsettled process and possibly put it beyond the Supreme Leader's control...

...or the Supreme Leader black-balls Rafsanjani, likely incurring blame for blocking one of Iran's highest-profile politicians.

As an EA correspondent summarised, "The Supreme Leader is between a rock and a hard place."

Click to read more ...

Iran Today: "Supreme Leader is the Ultimate Decision-Maker"

Khatami Watch

Reformist former president Mohammad Khatami has said that mutual trust between the government and the Iranian people has disappeared during Ahmadinejad's presidency.

Khatami also said that the hopes and trust of the middle classes and young people had also eroded and must be restored. Iran's problems would not be solved, he added, without leadership and coordination.

Khatami said that Iran must first and foremost get over its "atmosphere of suspicion", and that currently a tough security atmosphere prevailed in Iran.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader's brother, Ayatollah Seyyed Mohammad Khamenei, has told the Fars News Agency that Iran's enemies are planning a complex plot ahead of the June presidential election, involving former president Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Click to read more ...

Iran Exclusive: Rafsanjani Prepares for a Presidential Campaign...and a Challenge to the Supreme Leader

In recent days, we have been tracking the indications that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- reversing his position from March --- will stand in the Presidential election in June.

Now we can confirm, on the basis of absolutely reliable information, that Rafsanjani is close to a campaign.

What's more, he and his supporters are doing so in part as a challenge to the Supreme Leader. Further, others see the campaign as support for detained opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, the main challenge to President Ahmadinejad in the disputed election in 2009.

Click to read more ...

Iran Live: An All-Is-Well Analysis of the Presidential Election

1731 GMT: Oil Watch Ship industry sources say Iran is storing millions of barrels of oil on tankers in its territorial waters amid sanctions.

Ship industry sources gave varying estimates on how much oil Iran was storing at sea, but all said the volume was higher.

Data from maritime intelligence publisher IHS Fairplay estimated 10 of Iran's supertankers, each able to carry up to 2 million barrels of crude, were storing oil, together with one smaller tanker able to carry up to 1 million barrels.

The data showed a further two supertankers were also probably deployed on floating storage, based on the length of time they were stationary, meaning as much as 25 million barrels in total.

The vessels, all belonging to Iran's top tanker operator NITC, were located close to the Iranian oil terminals of Assaluyeh, Kharg Island and Bahregan, the data showed.

Another ship industry source estimated 17 NITC vessels were storing crude oil, mainly on supertankers, while another said 15 tankers were storing crude oil around Iran, with volumes close to 30 million barrels.

Last year Iran's floating storage was estimated to have reached at least 33 million barrels before buyers were found.

Click to read more ...