Iran Analysis: "Supreme Leader in a Real Mess" After Last Presidential Debate

Observations after Friday's third and final Presidential debate, following a conversation with a leading EA correspondent on Iran:

1. THE CONSERVATIVES AND PRINCIPLISTS FALL APART IN ARGUMENTS

The immediate headline that the debate was more interesting than the previous two, because of conflict among the eight candidates, does not begin to capture the extent of the division --- notably among those men who supposedly are close to the Supreme Leader's camp.

Our correspondent summarises, "This was a free-for-all in which all went after each other, including the [members of the Supreme Leader's] 2+1 Committee. This showed the three men of the 2+1 do not have anything in common."

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Iran Today: Presidential Election --- Censoring An Iranian Campaign Story

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Rouhani On Iran- Qatar Relations

Moderate Presidential candidate Hassan Rouhani congratulated Iran on Tuesday evening on an important victory over its rival Qatar --- dashing the Gulf state's hopes after dominating it.

Iran beat Qatar 1-0 on the football field.

Another step towards #Brazil...congratulations to all #Iranians on #victory against Qatar!! #Iran #WorldCup #Brazil2014

— Rouhani Campaign (@HassanRouhani) June 4, 2013

Meanwhile, Iran summoned Qatar's charge d'affaires on Tuesday over what it said was an "Arab-linked terrorist plot".

Ahmadinejad Camp to Maintain Influence in Tehran?

President Ahmadinejad's camp has been blocked at national level from continuing influence, with the disqualification of Ahmadinejad's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as a candidate, but this may not be the end of the story....

The Ahmadinejad faction has put forth Minister of Transportation and Housing Ali Nikzad as candidat for Tehran mayor, and has named other hopefuls for city council seats, including Ahmadinejad’s sister Parvin and Presidential advisor Ali Zabihi.

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Iran Today: Presidential Election --- Focus On The Economy

Presidential candidate Mohammad Gharazi (credit: PressTV)

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One More Week in Trial of Defendants in Kahrizak Abuse Case?

The head of Tehran Criminal Courts, Judge Mohsen Eftekhari, says three defendants --- Presidential advisor Saeed Mortazavi and two senior judges --- have one week to provide the court with their defences.

Eftekhari said, after that, “the jury will decide on the verdict".

Earlier reports had indicated the defence had concluded its response, and the court had 10 days to deliver a decision.

The three men are accused of complicity in the abuse and killing of three post-election protesters at the Kahrizak detention centre after the disputed 2009 Presidential election.

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Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- The Presidential Election (Arseh Sevom)

The 8 Approved CandidatesThe disqualifications of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s former chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashai were big news, if not entirely surprising. 

The electoral field is now dominated by hardliners loyal to the Supreme Leader.

However, the fictional campaign of Zahra continues to pick up steam with the endorsements of prominent lawyers Shirin Ebadi and Mehrengiz Kar. 

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Iran Analysis: Has Regime Risked Its Legitimacy By Blocking Rafsanjani?

Cartoon: Maya Neyestani

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After the new President is declared on 21 June in the election which cannot be called a "free election", the bigger contest for the regime --- beset by economic problems, facing difficulties over its foreign policy and "Islamic Awakening", caught up in political rivalry --- remains....

How does it convince its people, many of them resigned to the decline of recent years, that its Islamic Republic is still legitimate?

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Iran Analysis: 4 Key Questions as Guardian Council Decides Final List of Presidential Candidates

Iran's Guardian Council will tell the Minister of Interior today which Presidential hopefuls will be allowed to campaign for the 14 June election.

Almost all of the 686 who registered while be disqualified; however, a relatively large contingent of politicians, perhaps more than 30, will be accepted.

This means that --- with the Supreme Leader's camp unable to agree a "unity" candidate despite five months of effort --- we still will not have clarity on the three or four front-runners until next week, after other candidates have withdrawn and made endorsements.

We can make some educated guesses, however, based on the Guardian Council's white smoke and answers to these four questions:

1. Will Hashemi Rafsanjani Be Allowed to Run?

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Iran Analysis: Presidential Election --- Good-bye Parties; Hello, Personalities and "Atomised Politics"

Registered candidates in the 2013 Presidential election

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What does this shift from parties to personalities and atomised politics mean?

The easy notion of a Supreme Leader manipulating and shaping politics through his position and networks is under strain. Ayatollah Khamenei finds that he is not acting but reacting to the initiatives of others.

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Iran Analysis: Correcting the Goldfish's View of a "Surprise" Presidential Election

If you started watching the Presidential contest on Friday, then this weekend's developments might have been surprising. However, if you started watching months ago --- and kept watching day-by-day --- the bigger picture would have prepared you for the so-called "surprise".

As we put the question last Wednesday, "Supreme Leader Losing Control of the Election?"

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Iran Feature: Inside Story on How Supreme Leader Accepted Rafsanjani's Presidential Campaign

Rafsanjani & Supreme Leader in the 1980sAt 4 p.m., advisors told Hashemi Rafsanjani that if he was not going to register as a candidate, he should write a message to the people and let them know. The former President agreed to draft a satement; however, an hour later, the advisors told others, "Hurry up. Rafsanjani is setting off to the Interior Ministry to register."

What had changed?

Rafsanjani had consulted the Supreme Leader's office. He had received a "not negative" response --- not a definitive green light to run but also not a rejection.

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Iran Today: Supreme Leader Losing Control of the Presidential Election?

See also EA's Guide To Iran's June 2013 Presidential Election
Iran Analysis: Presidential Election --- Rafsanjani and Khatami Put Supreme Leader in a Corner
Tuesday's Iran Today: The Presidential Campaign Formally Opens

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Presidential Election Watch: Assessing Rafsanjani's Candidacy

A cryptic message on President Rafsanjani's website today: "Do not say no to the good prayers (wishes) of the people!"

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