Iran Analysis: Has Regime Risked Its Legitimacy By Blocking Rafsanjani?

Cartoon: Maya Neyestani

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After the new President is declared on 21 June in the election which cannot be called a "free election", the bigger contest for the regime --- beset by economic problems, facing difficulties over its foreign policy and "Islamic Awakening", caught up in political rivalry --- remains....

How does it convince its people, many of them resigned to the decline of recent years, that its Islamic Republic is still legitimate?

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Iran Analysis: 4 Key Questions as Guardian Council Decides Final List of Presidential Candidates

Iran's Guardian Council will tell the Minister of Interior today which Presidential hopefuls will be allowed to campaign for the 14 June election.

Almost all of the 686 who registered while be disqualified; however, a relatively large contingent of politicians, perhaps more than 30, will be accepted.

This means that --- with the Supreme Leader's camp unable to agree a "unity" candidate despite five months of effort --- we still will not have clarity on the three or four front-runners until next week, after other candidates have withdrawn and made endorsements.

We can make some educated guesses, however, based on the Guardian Council's white smoke and answers to these four questions:

1. Will Hashemi Rafsanjani Be Allowed to Run?

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Iran Today: A Week In The Presidential Election

Is Fars News Endorsing Saeed Jalili?

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Joanna Paraszczuk and Scott Lucas write:

In the week since registration for Presidential candidates closed and the Guardian Council began vetting the almost 700 Iranians who submitted their names, Iran's media has been dominated by two contenders: former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.

However, with the Supreme Leader's 2+1 Coalition yet to declare any "unity" candidate, the question now is who will be able to mobilize significant support within the regime to counter Rafsanjani.

So far, only Jalili has emerged as a front runner.

Just as significant is the apparent confusion in the principlist and conservative camp. Although talk of a "unity" candidate is ongoing, no figure apart from Jalili has shown the organization and initiative to offer an alternative to Rafsanjani.

Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani, Motahari Respond to Jannati's Friday Prayer Comments

Both Conservative MP Ali Motahari and Presidential candidate and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani have responded to remarks by temporary Tehran Friday Prayer leader Ayatollah Jannati yesterday.

In yesterday's Friday prayers, Jannati dubbed "laughable jokes" pledges by presidential candidates to repair Iran's relationship with the US and resolve the economic hardship caused by Western sanctions.

Motahari said that in the 2009 election the people were "deceived" and that the Guardian Council must approve Rafsanjani as a Presidential candidate.

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Iran Today: How To Use Nuclear Talks In An Election Campaign

Presidential candidate Saeed Jalili (right) after nuclear discussions with Catherine Ashton, the representative of the 5+1 Powers

See also Wednesday's Iran Today: Lines Drawn In Presidential Campaigns

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The Guardian Council, the body vetting the almost 700 people who had registered as candidates for the Presidential election, is scheduled to make its decisions today. However, with up to 40 prominent politicians and public figures among the hopefuls, it is close to a certainty that the Council will request a five-day extension.

Yet even at this early stage, it appears that the final battle may be emerging: former President Hashemi Rafsanjani will take his challenge all the way to the run-off on 21 June.

And to stop him, the Supreme Leader and others within the system will turn to Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council.

Despite no previous electoral experience, Jalili has put together an impressive campaign --- including through social media --- to take attention from other conservatives and principlists, including the members of the Supreme Leader's 2+1 Committee.

An example of that campaigning acumen? Jalili, Iran's lead negotiator in nuclear talks with the 5+1 Powers, used Wednesday's discussions with the 5+1's Catherine Ashton --- scheduled well before the formal registration of candidates --- to highlight his diplomatic and political skills.

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Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani Edition

The reformist Assembly of Combatant Clerics has unanimously endorsed former President Hashemi Rafsanjani for this year's election.

Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani Edition

Conservative website Entekhab notes that former President and Presidential candidate Hashemi Rafsanjani was a confidante of Ayatollah Khomeini, and that during his past presidency he had wanted to improve relations with the USA.

Entekhab notes that in the 2005 Presidential campaign, Rafsanjani declared that he was ready for dialog with America and "has made similar comments about negotiations with America".

Entekhab also noted that Rafsanjani's government had focussed on "rebuilding the economy".

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Iran Today: Lines Drawn In Presidential Campaigns

Saeed Jalili Posts Photos On His New Google Plus Account

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Presidential Election Watch: Rohani to Withdraw in Favour of Rafsanjani

Hassan Rohani, a senior official with the Expediency Council, has indicated that he will withdraw his candidacy in favour of former President Hashemi Rafsnajni --- but after the Guardian Council has finished its vetting process:

I am happy that Rafsanjani registered for the candidacy and people should be patient for another 10 days as I think some candidates will step down in favour of other candidates.

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Iran Analysis: Presidential Election --- Good-bye Parties; Hello, Personalities and "Atomised Politics"

Registered candidates in the 2013 Presidential election

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What does this shift from parties to personalities and atomised politics mean?

The easy notion of a Supreme Leader manipulating and shaping politics through his position and networks is under strain. Ayatollah Khamenei finds that he is not acting but reacting to the initiatives of others.

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Iran Today: Age, "Sedition", & the Presidential Election

Nikahang Kowsar's vision of Hashemi Rafsanjani and the Supreme Leader in the Presidential election

See also Iran Special: EA's Guide to the Presidential Election
Iran Analysis: Presidential Election --- Good-bye Parties; Hello, Personalities and "Atomised Politics"
Monday's Iran Today: Rafsanjani & Jalili Put Out Campaign Slogans

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Presidential Election Watch: Supreme Leader's Man Renews "Sedition" Attack on Rafsanjani

MP Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, a member of the Supreme Leader's "2+1 Committee" has renewed the "sedition" attack on former President Hashemi Rafsanjani by linked him to the detained opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi: “Everyone who supported Mousavi in [the disputed 2009 Presidential election] is today supporting Hashemi Rafsanjani.”

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Iran Today: Rafsanjani & Jalili Put Out Campaign Slogans

A Former Soldier And A Diplomat: Presidential Candidate Saeed Jalili Tweets Photograph of Military Past

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Presidential Election Watch: Backing Rafsanjani (continued)

The Reformist Coordination Council has welcomed the candidacy of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and called on all reformists to participate in a statement of support.

Presidential Election Watch: Hardline Kayhan Criticizes Rafsanjani

In a lengthy editorial on Monday, Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of hardline newspaper Kayhan, which is close to the Supreme Leader, criticized the decision of former president Hashemi Rafsanjani to register his candidacy, asking what the point of doing so had been, and suggesting that it could have been a cover for the reformists to return to the political scene.

Kayhan criticized the wide coverage the Iranian press has given to Rafsanjani's registration as a candidate.

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Iran Analysis: Correcting the Goldfish's View of a "Surprise" Presidential Election

If you started watching the Presidential contest on Friday, then this weekend's developments might have been surprising. However, if you started watching months ago --- and kept watching day-by-day --- the bigger picture would have prepared you for the so-called "surprise".

As we put the question last Wednesday, "Supreme Leader Losing Control of the Election?"

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Iran Today: Presidential Election --- Rafsanjani Shakes Up The Race

A fistfight in the Minister of Interior after President Ahmadinejad's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, registered for the Presidential race on Saturday --- Rahim-Mashai is on the right while Ahmadinejad is in the centre of the photograph

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Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani's Campaign "Manifesto"

Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has set out his opening statement for the campaign.

The highlight? A challenge to the Supreme Leader's declaration of the successful "resistance" of the Islamic Republic, with Rafsanjani saying that he is entering race because "the country is in condition equivalent to eight years of war with the Baathist Party in Iraq".

Rafsanjani also emphasised that he chose to run based on the requests of "many senior scholars and clerics" as well as different groups within the society. He continued:

I offer unity, trust, and the ability to bring together all factions within the family of the system and the Islamic Revolution, ensuring compassionate leaders and experienced managers.

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