Iran Analysis: Has Regime Risked Its Legitimacy By Blocking Rafsanjani?

After the new President is declared on 21 June in the election which cannot be called a "free election", the bigger contest for the regime --- beset by economic problems, facing difficulties over its foreign policy and "Islamic Awakening", caught up in political rivalry --- remains....

How does it convince its people, many of them resigned to the decline of recent years, that its Islamic Republic is still legitimate?

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Iran Analysis: 4 Key Questions as Guardian Council Decides Final List of Presidential Candidates

Iran's Guardian Council will tell the Minister of Interior today which Presidential hopefuls will be allowed to campaign for the 14 June election.

Almost all of the 686 who registered while be disqualified; however, a relatively large contingent of politicians, perhaps more than 30, will be accepted.

This means that --- with the Supreme Leader's camp unable to agree a "unity" candidate despite five months of effort --- we still will not have clarity on the three or four front-runners until next week, after other candidates have withdrawn and made endorsements.

We can make some educated guesses, however, based on the Guardian Council's white smoke and answers to these four questions:

1. Will Hashemi Rafsanjani Be Allowed to Run?

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Iran Today: Presidential Election --- The Field Starts To Narrow

Ramin MehmanparastInternet Watch: Even Google Doesn’t Come Up

Radio Farda reports that the internet has been mostly down throughout Iran since Saturday, and claiming that “even Google doesn’t come up anymore.”

Some observers have linked the internet slowdown indirectly to the forthcoming election, suggesting that the internet still works for government officials. Radio Farda notes that one student was unable to access a foreign Embassy’s website, while a user from Tehran commented that even with 512kb connections webpages are not loading properly.

Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani Edition --- Hashemi's Third Statement

Former President and Presidential candidate Hashemi Rafsanjani has issued a third statement, entitled Campaign Ethics, Good Promises and Converting Enemies to Friends, Khabar Online reports.

The statement opens with a citation from the Quran --- Surat al-Muminum 23:96: Repel evil with that which is better. We are Best-Acquainted with the things they utter.

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Iran Today: Still No Unity Candidate

Presidential Candidate Saeed Jalili

With less than three days to go before the Guardian Council declares its final list of candidates, the principlist 2+1 coalition --- established in December with the aim of finding a single candidate behind whom conservatives could rally --- has yet to announce that candidate.

Instead, each member of the 2+1 Coalition continues pre-campaigning with no sign that any of the three will step down in favor of another. Top Khamenei advisor Ali Akbar Velayati urged Iranians to avoid a Western lifestyle and praised the Resistance Economy.

Meanwhile, the hardline Perseverance Front also faces a decision about which candidate it will back after the Guardian Council returns the final list of candidates on Tuesday.

On Saturday, the Perseverance Front's initial choice, former Minister of Health Kamran Baqeri Lankarani denied he would step down in favor of Supreme National Security Council secretary Saeed Jalili.

Amid the uncertainty, Jalili continues to present himself as a front-runner, extending his social media campaign by opening an Instagram account, disseminating campaign ideas via podcast and downloadable leaflets, and continuing to use Twitter.

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Presidential Election Watch --- Jalili Edition

Jalili Extends Social Media Presence

Supreme National Security Council secretary, Perseverance Front member and Presidential candidate Saeed Jalili, who has shown savvy use of social media in the opening stages of his pre-campaign efforts, has extended his social media presence by joining photo-sharing and micro-blogging network Instagram.

The Official @instagram instagram.com/saeedjalili/ #Jalili #Iran #Iran92 #Iran2013 #انتخابات #جلیلی

— Dr Saeed Jalili (@DrSaeedJalili) May 18, 2013

The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also uses Instagram --- which is not blocked in Iran --- to disseminate publicity photographs.

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Iran Today: A Week In The Presidential Election

Is Fars News Endorsing Saeed Jalili?

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Joanna Paraszczuk and Scott Lucas write:

In the week since registration for Presidential candidates closed and the Guardian Council began vetting the almost 700 Iranians who submitted their names, Iran's media has been dominated by two contenders: former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.

However, with the Supreme Leader's 2+1 Coalition yet to declare any "unity" candidate, the question now is who will be able to mobilize significant support within the regime to counter Rafsanjani.

So far, only Jalili has emerged as a front runner.

Just as significant is the apparent confusion in the principlist and conservative camp. Although talk of a "unity" candidate is ongoing, no figure apart from Jalili has shown the organization and initiative to offer an alternative to Rafsanjani.

Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani, Motahari Respond to Jannati's Friday Prayer Comments

Both Conservative MP Ali Motahari and Presidential candidate and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani have responded to remarks by temporary Tehran Friday Prayer leader Ayatollah Jannati yesterday.

In yesterday's Friday prayers, Jannati dubbed "laughable jokes" pledges by presidential candidates to repair Iran's relationship with the US and resolve the economic hardship caused by Western sanctions.

Motahari said that in the 2009 election the people were "deceived" and that the Guardian Council must approve Rafsanjani as a Presidential candidate.

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Iran Today: How To Use Nuclear Talks In An Election Campaign

Presidential candidate Saeed Jalili (right) after nuclear discussions with Catherine Ashton, the representative of the 5+1 Powers

See also Wednesday's Iran Today: Lines Drawn In Presidential Campaigns

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The Guardian Council, the body vetting the almost 700 people who had registered as candidates for the Presidential election, is scheduled to make its decisions today. However, with up to 40 prominent politicians and public figures among the hopefuls, it is close to a certainty that the Council will request a five-day extension.

Yet even at this early stage, it appears that the final battle may be emerging: former President Hashemi Rafsanjani will take his challenge all the way to the run-off on 21 June.

And to stop him, the Supreme Leader and others within the system will turn to Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council.

Despite no previous electoral experience, Jalili has put together an impressive campaign --- including through social media --- to take attention from other conservatives and principlists, including the members of the Supreme Leader's 2+1 Committee.

An example of that campaigning acumen? Jalili, Iran's lead negotiator in nuclear talks with the 5+1 Powers, used Wednesday's discussions with the 5+1's Catherine Ashton --- scheduled well before the formal registration of candidates --- to highlight his diplomatic and political skills.

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Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani Edition

The reformist Assembly of Combatant Clerics has unanimously endorsed former President Hashemi Rafsanjani for this year's election.

Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani Edition

Conservative website Entekhab notes that former President and Presidential candidate Hashemi Rafsanjani was a confidante of Ayatollah Khomeini, and that during his past presidency he had wanted to improve relations with the USA.

Entekhab notes that in the 2005 Presidential campaign, Rafsanjani declared that he was ready for dialog with America and "has made similar comments about negotiations with America".

Entekhab also noted that Rafsanjani's government had focussed on "rebuilding the economy".

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Iran Today: Lines Drawn In Presidential Campaigns

Saeed Jalili Posts Photos On His New Google Plus Account

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Presidential Election Watch: Rohani to Withdraw in Favour of Rafsanjani

Hassan Rohani, a senior official with the Expediency Council, has indicated that he will withdraw his candidacy in favour of former President Hashemi Rafsnajni --- but after the Guardian Council has finished its vetting process:

I am happy that Rafsanjani registered for the candidacy and people should be patient for another 10 days as I think some candidates will step down in favour of other candidates.

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Iran Today: Age, "Sedition", & the Presidential Election

Nikahang Kowsar's vision of Hashemi Rafsanjani and the Supreme Leader in the Presidential election

See also Iran Special: EA's Guide to the Presidential Election
Iran Analysis: Presidential Election --- Good-bye Parties; Hello, Personalities and "Atomised Politics"
Monday's Iran Today: Rafsanjani & Jalili Put Out Campaign Slogans

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Presidential Election Watch: Supreme Leader's Man Renews "Sedition" Attack on Rafsanjani

MP Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, a member of the Supreme Leader's "2+1 Committee" has renewed the "sedition" attack on former President Hashemi Rafsanjani by linked him to the detained opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi: “Everyone who supported Mousavi in [the disputed 2009 Presidential election] is today supporting Hashemi Rafsanjani.”

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Iran Today: Rafsanjani & Jalili Put Out Campaign Slogans

A Former Soldier And A Diplomat: Presidential Candidate Saeed Jalili Tweets Photograph of Military Past

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Presidential Election Watch: Backing Rafsanjani (continued)

The Reformist Coordination Council has welcomed the candidacy of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and called on all reformists to participate in a statement of support.

Presidential Election Watch: Hardline Kayhan Criticizes Rafsanjani

In a lengthy editorial on Monday, Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of hardline newspaper Kayhan, which is close to the Supreme Leader, criticized the decision of former president Hashemi Rafsanjani to register his candidacy, asking what the point of doing so had been, and suggesting that it could have been a cover for the reformists to return to the political scene.

Kayhan criticized the wide coverage the Iranian press has given to Rafsanjani's registration as a candidate.

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Iran Analysis: Correcting the Goldfish's View of a "Surprise" Presidential Election

If you started watching the Presidential contest on Friday, then this weekend's developments might have been surprising. However, if you started watching months ago --- and kept watching day-by-day --- the bigger picture would have prepared you for the so-called "surprise".

As we put the question last Wednesday, "Supreme Leader Losing Control of the Election?"

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