See also Occupy Wall Street Special: Canadian Caption Writer Goes Rogue and Takes Down Celebrities
The Occupy story is now growing beyond a domestic American narrative and becoming a global tale of protest.
Perhaps.
Manssor Arbabsiar's Home in TexasOn the face of the American information, there is enough to implicate --- remember that the formal legal judgement has not been made --- an Iranian-American and two Revolutonary Guards officers. But the leap to the top of the Guards and Qassem Soleimani is one of faith. And there is nothing yet to make the even bigger jump to the clerics and politicians at the summit of the Iranian regime.
In the past 24 hours, there have been a few new facts about the alleged Iran plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador to the US and many more opinions and conjectures. The baseline, however, is still the way the US Government presented its case.
Given the fact that the US has only one Iranian-American, Mansoor Arbabsiar, in custody --- about whom no one really knows much --- and the courts have yet to decide whether he is guilty or not, it really is a stretch to blame the highest echelons of the Iranian regime for orchestrating the attack. Yet this is precisely what Washington did, not in the formal complaint against Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, his supposed Revolutionary Guards handler, but in the declaration of indictments against three senior Revolutionary Guards officers, including the head of the force, for orchestrating the attack.
This is not a question of capability --- the regime has shown in the past that it is capable of violence --- but of complicity. Without presenting further evidence, the US Government cannot expect its narrative of confirmed guilt to take hold.
See also Iran Analysis: The Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador --- Does This Story Make Sense?
Iran Feature: 10 Questions About the "Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador to US"
Iran Document: The Formal Complaint over "Plot to Kill Saudi Ambassador to US"
Iran Document: US Account of the "Plot to Murder the Saudi Ambassador to Washington"
Attorney General Eric Holder and Director of FBI Robert Mueller set out the allegations of the Iran-backed plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador to the US
1810 GMT: Space Watch. Sad news from Iran --- the monkey died.
Last week, we reported that Iran had indefinitely postponed plans to send a live monkey into space, without giving any reasons. Hamid Fazeli, head of Iran's Space Organisation, said, "One cannot give a set date for this project and as soon as our nation's scientists announce the readiness, it will be announced."
The rest of the story came out today. Deputy Science Minister Mohammad Mehdinejad-Nouri said, "The Kavoshgar-5 rocket carrying a capsule with a live animal was launched during Shahrivar (23 August to 22 September). However, the launch was not publicised as all of its anticipated objectives were not accomplished.
Mehdinejad-Nouri insisted that the launch of a live animal into space was "strategic, and a priority".
1800 GMT: Supreme Leader Watch. More on Ayatollah Khamenei's speech in Kermanshah today....
The Supreme Leader gave this advice to the Iranian people for Parliamentary elections: "Vote for those who are not connected to the centres of power and wealth".
A video extract of the Supreme Leader's address:
I will be in southern England at the "Putting the Power in Soft Power" conference today and Thursday. Apologies that the Iran LiveBlog will be limited until this evening, but do see our full coverage of the alleged plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador. James Miller will be here this afternoon with the latest on our LiveBlog of the Middle East and North Africa.
Thanks to readers for bringing in information through our Comments section. Remember that, if you are not signed up with Disqus, there may be some delay in posting your news and analysis.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011 at 8:52 | Scott Lucas in EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran 1937 GMT: A leading syrian dissident, Walid al-Bunni, was released on bail today after being arrested in August, according to the AFP:
"The Damascus court of appeals on Wednesday freed opposition figure Walid al-Bunni in exchange for a bail of 1,150 Syrian pounds ($23). He will be tried later for inciting (anti-regime) demonstrations and sectarianism," said Michel Shammas.
1823 GMT: The newest phase of military action in Syria has been in high gear for the second day in a row:
The Local Co-ordination Committees, which report on protests in Syria says security force surrounded the Deir Baaloba neighbourhood in Homs today and opened fire with heavy weapons. The activist network also says hundreds of students have been demonstrating in the al-Ashrafeya neighbourhood of Lattakia against the arrest of a school principal, who was arrested by the security forces after he resigned in protest at the storming of the school and assault on the students within it. The LCC also says a number of people have been arrested in Aleppo.
1809 GMT: An Egyptian general has defended the actions of the military during Sunday's clashes with Coptic Christians:
"The armed forces would never and have never opened fire on the people," Gen Mahmoud Hegazy, a member of the ruling military council, said during a news conference on Wednesday.
Pointing at footage of an army vehicle from the scene of the clashes, he stressed that "there has not been a case of rolling over people with vehicles".
"They are trying to avoid running into protesters, not rolling over them."
The general also said the video proved that soldiers had come under attack by demonstrators armed with guns, knives and rocks.
Manssor ArbabsiarThe details of the story are developing, but this is the synopsis....
According to the American government, elements inside the Iranian regime were willing to pay Mexican drug dealers $1.5 Million (USD) to kill a Saudi official in the US, and possibly dozens of bystanders, potentially sparking a war that Tehran is ill-equipped to win, during a time of increased isolation in the world and the region for the Islamic Republic.
All the evidence that we currently have to evaluate this claim can be divided into two categories: the official US complaint against the alleged Iranian agent Manssor Arbabsiar, and common sense.
The common sense answer is that this is a preposterous story, Iran would have nothing to gain and everything to lose from this act.
The complaint says that the US Attorney General has detailed and elaborate documentation that explains allegations which, at this moment, are general and lack corroboration.
Quds Force Commander Qassem Suleimani1. Where did Iranian-American Manssor Arbabsiar meet his contacts from the Quds Force of the Revolution Guards? In the US?
2. Qods boss [Qasem] Soleimani reports directly to [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei, so has Iran's Leader ordered this scenario?
3. Why does a 56 year old Iranian from Texas think he can contact drugs cartels in Mexico without being noticed by the FBI?
4. Why would loco Mexican assassins want their hit money wired into their bank account by an Iranian? No cash?
5. What would be Iran's gain in assassinating the Saudi Ambassador to the US?
Qassem Suleimani Saudi Arabia 
The US Department of Justice summary of the alleged plot, backed by elements of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, to kill the Saudi Ambassador to the US:
WASHINGTON—Two individuals have been charged in New York for their alleged participation in a plot directed by elements of the Iranian government to murder the Saudi Ambassador to the United States with explosives while the Ambassador was in the United States.
The charges were announced by Attorney General Eric Holder; FBI Director Robert S. Mueller; Lisa Monaco, Assistant Attorney General for National Security; and Preet Bharara, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York.
A criminal complaint filed today in the Southern District of New York charges Manssor Arbabsiar, a 56-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen holding both Iranian and U.S. passports, and Gholam Shakuri, an Iran-based member of Iran’s Qods Force, which is a special operations unit of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that is said to sponsor and promote terrorist activities abroad.
