Iran Analysis: Tehran Hurts Itself With Muddled Messages on Syria

General Jafari & President AhmadinejadRevolutionary Guards Commander Jafari's message on Sunday, backed by this chiding of Ankara, appears to be, "We are in Syria. Deal with it." Perhaps someone in Tehran planned it as part of a carrot-and-stick strategy, with the commander offering the tough posture while the President was saying, "Look, you really want us in talks."

More likely, however, is that there is no strategist --- not Jafari, not Ahmadinejad, not the Foreign Ministry, not the Supreme Leader --- thinking through the statements and Iran's actions. And that failure is likely to set Iran back in its effort to retain some influence in the Syrian situation.

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The Latest from Iran (22 August): Kim Jong Un is Coming to Tehran! (Or Not).

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Political Prisoners, Israel Loves Iran, and Looking Too Much Like Ahmadinejad
The Latest from Iran (21 August): All Hail the Supreme Leader

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2027 GMT: Oil Watch. Iran's two biggest oil buyers, China and India, sharply cut imports in July.

Beijing's purchases fell nearly a third in July from an 11-month high in June, while shipments by India, declined more than 40%.

The Indian cutback is probably linked to difficulties in insurance cover for Iranian tankers, following the European Union's imposition of sanctions on 1 July. This month Indian refiners have confirmed the first shipments from Iran, to begin in September, using Iranian cover.

The Chinese drop may be tied to a six-month US waiver from sanctions, issued on 28 June, for Beijing's reduced shipments in early 2012. A continued bounce-back in purchases might have jeopardised renewal of the waiver.

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The Latest from Iran (20 October): 240 Days of House Arrest

Iran Feature: A "Son of Stuxnet" Attack Against Tehran's Computers?
Iran Video: Anything to See Here? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Interview with Al Jazeera English
The Latest from Iran (19 October): Tehran Embraces Occupy Wall Street

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2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The six-year prison sentence of journalist Abdolreza Tajik has been confirmed by an appeals court.

Tajik was arrested in June 2010 and charged with acting against national security, propagating against the regime, and collaborating with the Centre for the Defence of Human Rights, co-founded by Nobel Prize winner Shirin Ebadi.

Tajik has worked for several reformist newspapers.

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Iran Analysis: Sometimes A Plot is a Drug Deal Gone Wrong (Porter)

Sketch of Manssor Arbabsiar at Court HearingIn the [US] complaint, the closest to a semblance of evidence that Arbabsiar sought help during that first meeting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador is the allegation, attributed to the DEA informant, that Arbabsiar said he was "interested in, among other things, attacking an embassy of Saudi Arabia". 

Among the "other things" was almost certainly a deal on heroin controlled by officers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Three Bloomberg reporters, citing a "federal law enforcement official", wrote that Arbabsiar told the DEA informant he represented Iranians who "controlled drug smuggling and could provide tons of opium".

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Iran 6-Point Analysis: Obama and the Regime Walk Tightropes Over the Plot

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There is an important conclusion which goes far beyond any assessment of the Plot. With this response, the US has thrown back the attempt by President Ahmadinejad to renew discussions on Iran's nuclear programme, expressed in a series of public signals in New York last month. 

For now, the Americans will be using stick, stick, and more stick not only over the nuclear issue --- which is no longer the leading symbol for US-Iran relations --- but over co-operation rather than political conflict in the region and beyond. If there is going to be any carrot of direct talks with Tehran, it will only follow the region's self-humbling with an admission of guilt for The Plot.

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Iran Analysis: The Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador --- Does This Story Make Sense?

Manssor ArbabsiarThe details of the story are developing, but this is the synopsis....

According to the American government, elements inside the Iranian regime were willing to pay Mexican drug dealers $1.5 Million (USD) to kill a Saudi official in the US, and possibly dozens of bystanders, potentially sparking a war that Tehran is ill-equipped to win, during a time of increased isolation in the world and the region for the Islamic Republic.

All the evidence that we currently have to evaluate this claim can be divided into two categories: the official US complaint against the alleged Iranian agent Manssor Arbabsiar, and common sense.

The common sense answer is that this is a preposterous story, Iran would have nothing to gain and everything to lose from this act.

The complaint says that the US Attorney General has detailed and elaborate documentation that explains allegations which, at this moment, are general and lack corroboration.

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Iran Document: US Account of the "Plot to Murder the Saudi Ambassador to US"

The US Department of Justice summary of the alleged plot, backed by elements of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, to kill the Saudi Ambassador to the US:

WASHINGTON—Two individuals have been charged in New York for their alleged participation in a plot directed by elements of the Iranian government to murder the Saudi Ambassador to the United States with explosives while the Ambassador was in the United States.

The charges were announced by Attorney General Eric Holder; FBI Director Robert S. Mueller; Lisa Monaco, Assistant Attorney General for National Security; and Preet Bharara, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York.

A criminal complaint filed today in the Southern District of New York charges Manssor Arbabsiar, a 56-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen holding both Iranian and U.S. passports, and Gholam Shakuri, an Iran-based member of Iran’s Qods Force, which is a special operations unit of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that is said to sponsor and promote terrorist activities abroad.

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Latest from Iran (2 September): Who's Meddling in the Revolutions?

1747 GMT: Ayatollah Namazi, a member of the powerful Assembly of Experts, has warned the government that use of libel, lies, deceit, and illegal money towards the influence of the elections would be considered " haram," banned by Islamic law. He warned that the next election would be a moral issue, and candidates should subscribe to strict morality in order to ensure that the fittest candidate won. He also said that this was imperative, because moral abuses threaten to discredit the legitimacy of the elections.

1740 GMT: The Armenian Church in Kerman, registered as a national treasure, has been destroyed. Here is a picture gallery of the church now.

1515 GMT: Energy Watch. Deutsche Welle reports that the construction of a gasoline refinery has been stopped after five years because the Ministry of Oil did not pay its assigned share of 70% of the cost.

According to the website, only 8% of the project had been completed. The halt to construction means the dismissal of 6200 employees.

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