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Thursday
Apr292010

The Latest from Iran (29 April): Preparations

2020 GMT: A Cleric's May Day Message. Grand Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, meeting workers in advance of May Day, has said: “Today the problems are many and to solve them either no actions are taken or [the government] is incapable of taking any actions. The main issue is that solving these problems has been assigned to those who are not experts in these topics.”

Mousavi-Ardebili also touched on the charges of impropriety against the Government: “Our expectations from Parliament is to show more resistance against the unlawful actions [of the administration] because if, in the Parliament that is the house of the people and is where the laws are passed, these issues are ignored the situation would be worse in other places.”

NEW Iran Video and Summary: The Mousavi Statement for May Day/Teachers Day (29 April)
NEW Iran: The Establishment Frets Over the Supreme Leader
Iran Document: English Text of Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (26 April)Iran: President Ahmadinejad’s Joke of the Day
The Latest from Iran (28 April): Making a Date


Mousavi-Ardebili added, “These days to solve the problems there is nothing left for us to do but praying, since when we give our inputs about an issue it is being ignored.”


1940 GMT: Political Prisoner News. Days before National Teachers Day and planned demonstrations, it is being reported that Alireza Hashemi, the Secretary General of the Teachers Organization, has been arrested.

1500 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. It's no longer fresh news that Italy's largest oil and gas company, Eni, is pulling out of Iran projects because of the prospect of tougher US sanctions on any firm dealing with Tehran (see Tuesday's updates). It is significant that the news is now being carried by Press TV.

1455 GMT: We've posted today's Mir Hossein Mousavi video, accompanied by a summary from Radio Zamaneh, as a separate entry.

1330 GMT: Writing About the Crisis. Our German Bureau reports that prominent Iranian poets and writers, including Simin Behbahani, Yadollah Royai, Esmail Khoi and Majid Naficy, have contributed to a new anthology,  "Protest of the Pen", published in Persian.

0945 GMT: Investigation or Cover-Up? Shadi Sadr offers her views on the enquiry into the Kahrizak Prison abuses, leading to the death penalty for two police officers and a prisoner:
Gentlemen! Enough magic! We know and you know that the story cannot vanish with the execution of three individuals; indeed, no injury can be cured by more death and execution. The only thing that can satisfy us is knowing the truth about all victims of Kahrizak; the truth about the death of Ramin Pourandarjani, the assigned physician at the facility; and the description of what transpired from the perpetrators of the crimes, on national television.

0940 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has released a video statement for May Day and Iran's Teachers Day (2 May).

0935 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voice of Freedom has a summary of recent arrests of students and the poor health of some detainees.

0925 GMT: Economy Watch. Voice of America claims that, of an estimated 8200 Iranian companies in Dubai, 400 have closed because of sanctions.

0920 GMT: Clerical Matters. Rah-e-Sabz offers an analysis of the President's relationship with senior clerics in Qom, claiming that there were tensions in Ahmadinejad's first term and that only a few marja are offering greetings for his second term.

0915 GMT: Labour/Political Prisoner Watch. Homayoun Jaberi, a member of the Syndicate of Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company, has been sentenced by the Revolutionary Court to a year in prison, suspended for three years (effectively a probation).

0835 GMT: Mr Verde is back, offering an analysis of the worries of the Iranian "establishment" over the position of the Supreme Leader.

0820 GMT: Corruption Watch (cont.). Elyas Naderan, the conservative member of Parliament who has been leading the campaign against the Government, has criticised the President for not waging a fight against corruption and for appointing questionable officials (for example, at Iran's Oil Commission), and (at NIOC etc.) because of political motivations.

0745 GMT: Corruption Watch. The drumbeat of criticism from conservative members of Parliament continues. Yesterday we noted Ali Motahari challenging underhanded dealings and nepotism in the judiciary; today we find Ahmad Tavakoli launching an even wider attack:
We have reached a state where political corruption is rampant, with some even trying to influence decision makers through bribes. This kind of corruption is much worse than economic corruption, because in economic corruption individuals pursue base and materialistic interest, but in political corruption it is possible that legal decisions would be made to facilitate certain people’s corrupt pursuits and lead to the interference of some in distributing the enormous oil proceeds.”

Political corruption is the involvement of politicians in economic corruption, whereby they buy and sell laws and regulations. This is a much more important disease that some are afflicted with now by trying to infiltrate the Majlis using bribes, threats or promises. Unfortunately we don’t have comprehensive laws dealing with political corruption.

If this problem is not dealt with today, tomorrow would be very late.

Tavakoli then gets specific, targeting the First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, accused of involvement in a major insurance fraud:"The judiciary is now facing a difficult test, because it has moved forward to investigate two important cases. One deals with an administration official and the other with a relative of a senior regime official. If the judiciary falls short of dealing with either case, in my opinion it would flunk the public opinion test and won’t have any standing left for combating corruption.”

0715 GMT: May Day. Rah-e-Sabz has now published the 15-demand declaration of the coalition of Iranian labour groups.

0645 GMT: So, after a flurry of statements from opposition figures (Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi) and groups (reformist parties, teachers, workers), we see if declaration will lead to action.

My interest is not in President Ahmadinejad's next move. Once more he is trying the foreign distraction, applying for and receiving a visa to attend the United Nations conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty next Monday. That is matched by a roll-call of statements from Government officials and supportive members of Parliament that it is the US who is the nuclear culprit --- see, for example, the assertion of Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Alathat Washington should apologize for its failure to abide by its obligations under international law and the NPT.

No, time will be better spent looking for ripples, as in public gatherings of workers, teachers, and other activist groups for the week around May Day. And then the question is whether there will indeed be another wave for 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

An opening teaser question: will Mousavi, who has repeatedly been kept away by Iranian authorities from mass demonstrations since last June, finally move from statement to open defiance by joining the marchers six weeks from now?
Tuesday
Apr272010

The Latest from Iran (27 April): An Opposition Wave?

1840 GMT: The Uranium Squeeze. Time magazine notices a key point that we've mentioned for some time, "Iran's need to find fresh supplies of raw uranium supplies is increasingly urgent, according to some reports."

1830 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). Following the announcement by major French firm Total that it will pull out of Iran  if US sanctions proceed and the defiant stance of Iranian officials that absolutely nothing was wrong with energy supplies --- see 0540 and 1050 GMT), Italian company Eni says it is "working on handing over the operatorship of the Iranian Darquain oil field to local partners".

NEW Iran’s Detained Journalists: EA’s (Vicarious) Confrontation with Foreign Minister Mottaki
NEW Latest Iran Video: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet (26 April)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “We Will Make The Nation Victorious”
Iran: The Mousavi 4-Point Message “Who Defends the Islamic Republic?"
Iran Exclusive: A Birthday Message to Detained Journalist Baghi from His Daughter
The Latest from Iran (26 April): Points of View


1700 GMT: Impact. We've known for days that opposition figures have been building up their challenge to the Government, but it's today, with the revelation of the meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi on Monday, that you know the wave has hit.


For the first time in weeks, the non-Iranian mainstream media is taking notice of the opposition as more than a post-11 February blip. Reuters headlines, "Iran opposition urges vote anniversary rally"; CNN, who established an "Iran Desk" for the 22 Bahman (11 February) demonstration and soon let it lapse, follows suit: "Iranian opposition candidates call for renewed protests".

1125 GMT: No Further Comment Necessary. From Press TV: "Deputy Foreign Minister Hassan Qashqavi said that it is 'ridiculous' to place limitations on the peaceful use of nuclear energy by making 'unfounded' claims about human rights and freedom of women."

1050 GMT: All is Well  Update. Despite the accumulating news of a possible oil squeeze on Tehran with foreign producers withdrawing imports, the Government line is No Problem:
Iran says its strategic gasoline reserves have climbed by a billion liters, reiterating that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never materialize.

"Iran is not worried about (possible) gasoline sanctions," Deputy Oil Minister Noureddin Shahnazi-Zadeh told Iran's Mehr News Agency on Tuesday, adding that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never occur as there is no possibility of imposing such sanctions under current conditions.


1045 GMT: We have posted a short video from Monday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, in which the two agreed to call a demonstration for 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

We have also posted a feature of how EA's list of detained Iranian journalists may have made its way into an Austrian newspaper's interview of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

0835 GMT: British Deportation. Last week, we reported on the British Government's plan to deport Bita Ghaedi, an Iranian woman who fled the country because of alleged abuse by her father and brother. Ghaedi was being returned to Tehran despite the likelihood that she would face punishment because of her participation in a rally protesting conflict over Iraq' s Camp Ashraf, home to many members of the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran.

Volcanic ash intervened to prevent Ghaedi's flight last week; however, her deportation has now been rescheduled for 5 May.

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farid Taheri, a member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been sentenced to three years in prison.

0750 GMT: Labour Watch. A collection of Iranian unions have issued a joint 15-point statement for May Day, "strongly supporting the demands of teachers, nurses, and other working classes of society to end discrimination".

Member of Parliament Alireza Mahjoub has criticised the Government's failure to implement rises in pensions and the hidden discrimination against female workers.

0740 GMT: Women's Rights Corner. Member of Parliament Ali Motahari has harshly criticised the "feminist and anti-family" views of Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Motahari said that Hashemi's critique of polygamy was misguided, as the prohibition of polygamy would lead to prostitution.

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amidst reports of the poor health of many detainees, reformist member of Parliament Mostafa Kavakebian has insisted that a Majlis commission investigate the prisons.

0710 GMT: A Successful Protest. The sit-in of female detainees at Evin Prison has forced authorities to establish the separation of men and women in the facility.

0700 GMT: Corruption Watch. Green Voice of Freedom has repeated the claim that the Supreme Leader has insisted the corruption case against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi must be dropped because of "sensitive issues of nezam (the Iranian system)".

0640 GMT: We Persist. The Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a protest against the recommendation of Parliament's Article 10 Commission that the reformist party be suspended. The IIPF declares that it will continue its activities.

The protest is signed by Mohsen Safai-Farahani, who was recently handed a six-year prison sentence.

0630 GMT: More Challenges. From the conservative side, leading member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has said that the number and impudence of corrupt high-level officials have risen. He insisted that these officials must be confronted, no matter where and who they serve.

And reformist Ahmad Shirzad has asserted that the opposition movement has been bolstered by the addition of "dissatisfied hardliners".

0540 GMT: Monday was notable for the rush of opposition challenges to the Government. There was Mehdi Karroubi on a law-abiding, Constitution-promoting resistance that would bring victory to Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi's "Who Defends the Islamic Republic?",  and Zahra Rahnavard calling for the release of detained workers and teachers.

Of course, the important leap will be from statement to action. Yet it is striking this moment to compare the renewed calls for justice and freedom with the Government's rhetorical flourishes.

There was President Ahmadinejad again looking outside Iran with his promotion of the "satanic tools" of the United Nations and the US. There was Foreign Minister Mottaki, confronted with a list of more than 100 detained journalists and political analysts, replying brusquely, "Stick to the nuclear issue."

And there were apparent flights of desperation. As the chief executive of the French oil company Total was announcing that it would pull out of Iran if US sanctions proceeded, the deputy head of Iran's oil industry, Hojatollah Ghanimi-Fard, proclamed, "Iran has negotiated development projects with several foreign oil companies, including French concerns."

Ghanimi-Fard's optimism contrasted sharply with a statement from the Revolutionary Guard that it was prepared to replace Total and Royal Dutch Shell in oil and natural gas projects. Ali Vakili, the managing director of the Pars Oil and Gas Company, said a one-week ultimatum had been given to Shell and Spanish company Repsol, “We will not delay the development of South Pars phases waiting for foreign companies.”