The Latest from Iran (27 April): An Opposition Wave?

1840 GMT: The Uranium Squeeze. Time magazine notices a key point that we've mentioned for some time, "Iran's need to find fresh supplies of raw uranium supplies is increasingly urgent, according to some reports."

1830 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). Following the announcement by major French firm Total that it will pull out of Iran  if US sanctions proceed and the defiant stance of Iranian officials that absolutely nothing was wrong with energy supplies --- see 0540 and 1050 GMT), Italian company Eni says it is "working on handing over the operatorship of the Iranian Darquain oil field to local partners".

NEW Iran’s Detained Journalists: EA’s (Vicarious) Confrontation with Foreign Minister Mottaki
NEW Latest Iran Video: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet (26 April)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “We Will Make The Nation Victorious”
Iran: The Mousavi 4-Point Message “Who Defends the Islamic Republic?"
Iran Exclusive: A Birthday Message to Detained Journalist Baghi from His Daughter
The Latest from Iran (26 April): Points of View

1700 GMT: Impact. We've known for days that opposition figures have been building up their challenge to the Government, but it's today, with the revelation of the meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi on Monday, that you know the wave has hit.


For the first time in weeks, the non-Iranian mainstream media is taking notice of the opposition as more than a post-11 February blip. Reuters headlines, "Iran opposition urges vote anniversary rally"; CNN, who established an "Iran Desk" for the 22 Bahman (11 February) demonstration and soon let it lapse, follows suit: "Iranian opposition candidates call for renewed protests".

1125 GMT: No Further Comment Necessary. From Press TV: "Deputy Foreign Minister Hassan Qashqavi said that it is 'ridiculous' to place limitations on the peaceful use of nuclear energy by making 'unfounded' claims about human rights and freedom of women."

1050 GMT: All is Well  Update. Despite the accumulating news of a possible oil squeeze on Tehran with foreign producers withdrawing imports, the Government line is No Problem:

Iran says its strategic gasoline reserves have climbed by a billion liters, reiterating that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never materialize.

"Iran is not worried about (possible) gasoline sanctions," Deputy Oil Minister Noureddin Shahnazi-Zadeh told Iran's Mehr News Agency on Tuesday, adding that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never occur as there is no possibility of imposing such sanctions under current conditions.

1045 GMT: We have posted a short video from Monday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, in which the two agreed to call a demonstration for 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

We have also posted a feature of how EA's list of detained Iranian journalists may have made its way into an Austrian newspaper's interview of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

0835 GMT: British Deportation. Last week, we reported on the British Government's plan to deport Bita Ghaedi, an Iranian woman who fled the country because of alleged abuse by her father and brother. Ghaedi was being returned to Tehran despite the likelihood that she would face punishment because of her participation in a rally protesting conflict over Iraq' s Camp Ashraf, home to many members of the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran.

Volcanic ash intervened to prevent Ghaedi's flight last week; however, her deportation has now been rescheduled for 5 May.

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farid Taheri, a member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been sentenced to three years in prison.

0750 GMT: Labour Watch. A collection of Iranian unions have issued a joint 15-point statement for May Day, "strongly supporting the demands of teachers, nurses, and other working classes of society to end discrimination".

Member of Parliament Alireza Mahjoub has criticised the Government's failure to implement rises in pensions and the hidden discrimination against female workers.

0740 GMT: Women's Rights Corner. Member of Parliament Ali Motahari has harshly criticised the "feminist and anti-family" views of Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Motahari said that Hashemi's critique of polygamy was misguided, as the prohibition of polygamy would lead to prostitution.

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amidst reports of the poor health of many detainees, reformist member of Parliament Mostafa Kavakebian has insisted that a Majlis commission investigate the prisons.

0710 GMT: A Successful Protest. The sit-in of female detainees at Evin Prison has forced authorities to establish the separation of men and women in the facility.

0700 GMT: Corruption Watch. Green Voice of Freedom has repeated the claim that the Supreme Leader has insisted the corruption case against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi must be dropped because of "sensitive issues of nezam (the Iranian system)".

0640 GMT: We Persist. The Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a protest against the recommendation of Parliament's Article 10 Commission that the reformist party be suspended. The IIPF declares that it will continue its activities.

The protest is signed by Mohsen Safai-Farahani, who was recently handed a six-year prison sentence.

0630 GMT: More Challenges. From the conservative side, leading member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has said that the number and impudence of corrupt high-level officials have risen. He insisted that these officials must be confronted, no matter where and who they serve.

And reformist Ahmad Shirzad has asserted that the opposition movement has been bolstered by the addition of "dissatisfied hardliners".

0540 GMT: Monday was notable for the rush of opposition challenges to the Government. There was Mehdi Karroubi on a law-abiding, Constitution-promoting resistance that would bring victory to Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi's "Who Defends the Islamic Republic?",  and Zahra Rahnavard calling for the release of detained workers and teachers.

Of course, the important leap will be from statement to action. Yet it is striking this moment to compare the renewed calls for justice and freedom with the Government's rhetorical flourishes.

There was President Ahmadinejad again looking outside Iran with his promotion of the "satanic tools" of the United Nations and the US. There was Foreign Minister Mottaki, confronted with a list of more than 100 detained journalists and political analysts, replying brusquely, "Stick to the nuclear issue."

And there were apparent flights of desperation. As the chief executive of the French oil company Total was announcing that it would pull out of Iran if US sanctions proceeded, the deputy head of Iran's oil industry, Hojatollah Ghanimi-Fard, proclamed, "Iran has negotiated development projects with several foreign oil companies, including French concerns."

Ghanimi-Fard's optimism contrasted sharply with a statement from the Revolutionary Guard that it was prepared to replace Total and Royal Dutch Shell in oil and natural gas projects. Ali Vakili, the managing director of the Pars Oil and Gas Company, said a one-week ultimatum had been given to Shell and Spanish company Repsol, “We will not delay the development of South Pars phases waiting for foreign companies.”

The Latest from Iran (20 April): Intrigues and a Bombing

2045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. It is reported that detained journalist Mehdi Mahmoudian, who helped expose the Kahrizak Prison abuses, has been taken to hospital in handcuffs.

2040 GMT: The Silenced Reformists? The Government may be putting out the story of the recommendation by "watchdogs" that reformist political parties shoud be banned. However, members of Parliament haven't suspended their criticisms.

Iran Document: The Speech Khatami Would Have Given at Japan Disarmament Conference
Iran Document: “Our Sons’ And Daughters’ Agony” (Sahabi)
The Latest from Iran (19 April): Stay Firm, Spread the Word

Dariush Ghanbari has said that the Government must pursue a reform of the media law and that rulers must recognize the opposition's rights to political activity.

Mostafa Kavakebian has asked why the regime only shuts down newspapers that are critical of the Government, while Jamshid Ansari criticises "parallel" intelligence services, saying that one makes arrests while the other remains uninformed.


2035 GMT: Today's Video Moment. A video has emerged of the Iranian New Year meeting of women's rights activists with Zahra Rahnavard, the prominent activist, academic, and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi. ()

The video comes out as the Government announces a plan to create a "Women's Ministry".

2030 GMT: Seeking the Help of Clerics. Rah-e-Sabz writes that a report on torture in Iranian prisoners has been passed in an open letter to marja (senior clerics).

2015 GMT: Guess Who's Waiting for Mir Hossein? It's not unusual to see the question, "Will Mousavi's Green Manifesto be published soon?" After all, the the way forward for the Green Movement is a top subject of discussion.

It is a bit different, however, when the question is being asked by Ali Larijani's Khabar Online.

2000 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Even if a detainee is freed, his encounter with Iranian authority may be far from over. Green Voice of Freedom reports that the family of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari, who was imprisoned for months after the election, has been threatened.

1955 GMT: Academic Corner. The suspension or expulsion of "troublesome" professors, which we have followed in update, is summarised by Green Voice of Freedom.

1545 GMT: We'll be on an extended break today. Thanks to all readers for continuing to bring in news and comment.

1215 GMT: Breaking the Opposition? Following the recommendation by Iranian "watchdogs" for the suspension of two major reformist parties and the banning of Bahar newspaper, pro-Ahmadinejad MPs have maintained pressure. Ali Abbaspour has declared that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have not stopped treasonous activities, while Ruhollah Hosseinian said the post-election role in "fitna" (sedition) by the Islamic Iran Participation and the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution justified their dissolution.

However, in a sign that not all may be running one way, Hosseinian was not present at yesterday's meeting of clerical MPs with the Supreme Leader.

1205 GMT: The Subsidy Battle. Despite reports of a settlement between Parliament and the Government over subsidy cuts and spending proposals, there is still some confusion over what exactly will be implemented. Pro-Ahmadinejad MP Iraj Nadimi has insisted that all is settled but chided reporters not to ask questions such as when when the cuts will start.

In that context, readers can interpret the latest statement of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani that the Government must enforce laws passed by the Majlis.


1200 GMT: A car bomb in Ilam has killed at least three people.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xq_XPVPcyK8&feature=youtube_gdata[/youtube]

1130 GMT: Politics, Rights, and Deportation. Bita Ghaedi, an Iranian women who fled to Britain because of alleged domestic violence, is due to be deported today, despite fears of how she will be treated upon her return to Iran. Activists are publicising her case, protesting in London yesterday.

Beyond the bureaucratic procedures of Britain's Home Office, Ghaedi's case is complicated by her participation in a rally in summer 2009 over the treatment of Iranian residents of Camp Ashraf in Iraq. Most of those residents are connected with the People's Mujahedin Organization of Iran,  the political wing of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO) who have sought the overthrow of the Islamic Republic for more than 30 years.

For the moment, Ghaedi's deportation is held up because of a twist beyond politics: UK flights to Iran are grounded because of the ash cloud from last week's volcanic eruption in Iceland.

1040 GMT: The Uranium Swap Talks Are On? Agence France Presse reports on the visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Tehran (see 1000 GMT):

Davutoglu...said that Turkey, which has resisted a US push for a fourth round of sanctions against Iran, "is ready to act as an intermediary in the issue of uranium exchange as a third country and hopes to have a fruitful role in this. We will continue to try our best to see what we can do for this nuclear fuel swap."

And Press TV, after its initial PR focus on Turkish support for Tehran, has now gotten to the heart of the matter, thanks to Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki: "We think that if the other sides have this real will to materialize this nuclear fuel deal then this swap can be a multilateral confidence building for all sides including the Islamic Republic of Iran." (Curiously AFP misses the signal, claiming that Mottaki "did not explicitly react to Ankara's latest offer".)

1030 GMT: Academic Corner. Students at Elm-o-Sanat University in Tehran have written an open letter in support of lecturers who have been suspended from teaching.

1000 GMT: A quiet start to the day. We're now far enough away from the Washington and Tehran showpieces on nuclear disarmament for the often-diversionary headlines to fade, even though the real stories are still there to be evaluated.

For example, in Iran, Press TV's press release on Turkish Foreign Ahmet Davutoglu's visit --- "Turkey has always supported Iran's stance when it comes to the nuclear program" --- fails to approach the interesting questions about his discussions with Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki.

Given Turkey's persistent role in the uranium talks as broker and intermediary, do the talks point to a serious renewal of negotiations on a swap of uranium and possible "third party enrichment"? Press TV only offers, "On a UN-backed deal that would provide fuel for Tehran's research reactor, the top diplomat said that Turkey would be willing to act as a mediator and Ankara would 'do its best' to see what it could do for the fuel swap."

In the US, the curious aftermath lingers after this weekend's fuss over Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' three-page memorandum on US policy towards Iran. Unnamed officials used The New York Times to argue that the Secretary of Defense was blasting the Obama Administration for being indecisive and that he was looking towards military "containment" of Tehran.

Gates has quickly repudiated the claims: "The New York Times sources who revealed my January memo to the National Security Advisor mischaracterized its purpose and content."

Fine, but what exactly did Gates say in that memo to the head of the National Security Council, James Jones, if he wasn't criticising an Obama policy caught between sanctions, discussions with Iran, and the US military presence in the Persian Gulf? And who, if the Secretary of Defense is correct, was trying to misrepresent him through a Page 1 story? (Or the alternative: is Gates trying to back away, at least in public, from concerns that were in fact "correctly" expressed in the leak to the Times?)

The Latest from Iran (10 April): Look Over There!

1500 GMT: Economy Watch. Human rights activists claim that most companies in Qazvin province will remain closed until end of the current Iranian month of Farvardin.

1445 GMT: Economy Watch. Although five major oil companies, included Shell, have recently suspended imports to Iran, here are the big players who ensure that Tehran doesn’t feel the squeeze quite as much: Petronas (Malaysia), Independent (Kuwait) and Total (France) are Iran’s largest suppliers.

NEW Iran: The Green Movement in Transition (Rafat)
Iran: How I Suddenly Disappeared on Press TV
Mousavi: “Can Repression & Brute Force Solve Iran’s Problems?”
The Latest from Iran: Dialogue or Conflict? (9 April)

1430 GMT: Remembering. Hadi Khamenei, the brother of the Supreme Leader and a reformist, has visited the family of the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, killed during the Ashura demonstrations.



1415 GMT: Corruption Watch. The latest on the alleged corruption ring, including the Fatemi Avenue insurance fraud, inside the Government….

Rah-e-Sabz claims the Government will charge MP Elyas Naderan, who has made the public allegations, instead of the accused First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

Meanwhile, Khabar Online claims that Rahimi has handed out 18 oil projects to groups close to the Government. And reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has asserted that about 100 fraudsters in Iran’s oil water, and sewage ministries and some insurance companies have been arrested recently and has demanded that their names be published.

1300 GMT: Economic Front. Beyond the specific quarrel over subsidies and spending, there is a wider political feud over economic approach amongst conservatives and principlists.

Ahmad Tavakoli, one of the harshest Parliamentary critics of Ahmadinejad, has denounced the “liberal” capitalist approach since the President took office in 2005. (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-53796.aspx) There is a similar attack in Alef on “Ahmadinejad and the Chicago boys”, a reference to the free-market, monetarist philosophy of University of Chicago economists such as Milton Friedman. The economic failures of the Iranian system are attributed to the US, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and other usual culprits. (http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/67173/)

A much better critique comes from Sadegh Zibakalam in Aftab, as he argues that “many of the Revolutionaries’ accusations about the US are unfounded” (http://www.iran-emrooz.net/index.php?/news1/21873/)

1200 GMT: Round-up….

A new Persian news website, DayPress, has been established.

Rah-e-Sabz is gloating, with more than a bit of anticipating, over the subsidy/spending fight: After Ahmadinejad’s threat to resign, are the Supreme Leader and Majlis going to bow down to him?

There may be a compromise in the works, however, according to Khabar Online.

0545 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Ahmad Rafat of "The Green Movement in Transition".

0535 GMT: Economy Watch. It is being reported that some workers in Iran's state telecommunications company have gone 12 months without wages.

0530 GMT: Detaining the Press. EA correspondents are currently working on an updated list of imprisoned journalists: one of them is photojournalist Babak Bordbar, detained on Ashura, for whom Peyke Iran has published an appeal.

0500 GMT: Not for the first time, we begin the day with the story of a great diversion. Iran's National Nuclear Day was the pretext for an all-day regime show displaying the nuclear issue, and thus Tehran's victory in the struggle against US pressure and duplicity, and hoping no one would notice other developments at home.

And on that stage, the effort was far from a bust. The showpiece announcement was not that dramatic --- an alleged third-generation uranium centrifuge, six times more effective than its first-generation predecssor. (I had expected the President to run with the declaration of "one or two" additional sites for the nuclear programme.) Ahmadinejad's unveiling of one of those centrifuges was more Science Fair than Science Breakthrough in appearance, but it did set a short-term agenda.

Press TV, for example, could herald the great achievement without coming close to practical questions, such as how many centrifuges? Where will they be located? When will they be on-line? Given that more than half of Natanz's existing second-generation centrifuges were not in use, on latest count, where is the assurance that third-generation successors will operate at a signficant capacity?

And, of course, Iranian state media chose the "appropriate" political framing. The steady beat of Iranian right and pride v. US-led pressure swept away other considerations. No one, for example, had to think about Ahmadinejad's continued use of the nuclear and military issues --- remember the mock missile at the regime's 22 Bahman (11 February) rally? --- as props for legitimacy.

And, of course, no one had to interrupt National Nuclear Day with other inconveniences such as the escalating Parliament-President battle, now to the point of Ahmadinejad's threatened resignation, the charges of corruption against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, and the signs of opposition revival through meetings and statements such as Thursday's Mir Hossein Mousavi statement and yesterday's declaration by Mohammad Khatami. (The last-minute cancellation of a guest on Press TV's News Analysis programme ensured that the standard Punch-and-Judy show --- one guest defending Iran's peaceful quest for nuclear advance vs. another gently suggesting why there might be "Western" concerns --- could proceed.)

Did the international media pull back the screen on the President's wizardry? Well. no. CNN ran with it as "Ahmadinejad: Iran has 'fully mastered' nuclear technology". (There is, however, an intriguing break from the pack in The New York Times, which runs a Saturday Profile on Mohsen Sazegara, the former creator of the Revolutionary Guard who is now a foe of the regime, and his YouTube broadcast.)