The Latest from Iran (27 February): The Mousavi Interview

2230 GMT: Sneaking Out the News. It appears that the official statement of the Assembly of Experts meeting has been quietly placed on its website. We are reviewing and will have an analysis in the morning.

First impression is that while the statement is effusive about the "leadership and guidance" of the Supreme Leader to get Iran through the post-election crisis, it is not as severe in condemning the "sedition" of the opposition as the alleged statement released by Fars News in mid-week.

2115 GMT: Larijani Watch. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, continuing his Japan tour with a visit to the Peace Memorial Museum in Nagasaki, declared both Tehran's commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and the perfidy of the West:

Iran will host an international conference on nuclear disarmament within the next two months....After the bombardment of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the US made no change in its policies. Two nuclear bombs of the United States have now increased to tens of thousands.

NEW Iran Analysis: Now It Gets Interesting….
Iran Document: Latest Karroubi Interview “The Shah Didn’t Behave Like This”
Iran: Mousavi, The Regime, & “The Prerequisites of Escalation”
Latest Iran Video: The Rigi “Confession” (25 February)
Iran Analysis: Khamenei’s Not-So-Big Push
Iran Follow-Up: Interpreting the Assembly of Experts “The Certainty of the Uncertain”
The Latest from Iran (26 February): Closing the Door?

2100 GMT: And the Jundullah Beat Goes On. More of the same from Iran's Foreign Ministry on Saturday, via spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast:

Ties between this terrorist group and security services of the so-called advocates of human rights including the US, Britain and certain other countries indicate that they are not honest about their claims of having respect for human rights.

The support of certain so-called human rights advocates for terrorist groups and criminals such as Abdolmalek Rigi has turned into a routine issue. We have always witnessed the support of these countries for terrorist groups to continue their moves in the region.

1720 GMT: Waiting for News on "Earthquake Weapons". Apart from the Mousavi interview, a quiet day inside Iran. Press TV's website has noted the Chilean earthquake and tsunami warning; so far, however, it has not blamed the disaster on US "secret weapons" (as Iran and Venezuela did with Haiti).

1505 GMT: Academic Newsflash. Fars News reports that more than 1000 "experts" have asked for an independent inquiry of the 11 September 2001 attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The article is based on a press conference held by Architects and Engineers for 9-11 Truth on 19 February.

1455 GMT: Almost all major news outlets now have summaries of the Mousavi interview. A prominent Iranian activist, via Iran News Now, offers anotherabridged version in English that parallels our translation (see 0955 GMT).

1235 GMT: Discovering Mousavi. Agence France Presse and the Los Angeles Times have now noted Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview (see 0955 GMT). Both are picking up on Mousavi's condemnation of the 22 Bahman "engineered" rally by the regime and his call for a "free" march of the Iranian people.

1200 GMT: Big in the Countryside? Peyke Iran claims that the publications, Hemmat and Mowj-Andishe, banned earlier this year are still distributed in Iran's provinces. Both are allegedly linked to President Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

0955 GMT: Mousavi's Interview. Setareh Sabety provides a few important extracts: "Mr. Karroubi and I, in our meeting, decided that we will once again ask for a permit, according to Article 27 of the Constitution, for a march that will put an end to the rumors and accusations."

Referring to 22 Bahman (11 February) as an "engineered" rally, Mousavi says that he does not like "insulting those who do not agree with us" and continues, "We did not suppose that everyone shared our opinions or that those who were not like-minded were bad people. All are our compatriots with the exception of some sabre-wielding thugs and murderers."

Mousavi compares the amount of money and methods used to muster crowds and transport them to Tehran for 22 Bahman --- "these kinds of engineered and mandatory rallies remind us of those used prior to tne 1979 Revolution" --- with the protest of the opposition. "Our movement looks like a traditional bazaar with many kiosks, cafes and store fronts of opinion connected to one another," Mousavi asserts, and he ends with an optimistc question, "When millions of young students are part of this movement, which is unique in our history and perhaps in the history of the world, how can we not have hope for the future?"

0950 GMT: Economy Watch. Seyyed Hossein Hashemi, the head of the Mining Commission, has declared that if Iran continues its present level of imports, "grave problems will arise". He warned in particular of under-investment in the domestic metal and mining industries.

0945 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary (A Day Later). Rah-e-Sabz offers a biting commentary on the Friday Prayers of Tehran's Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati and other clerics: "Praise of the Assembly Experts and [Jundullah leader Abdolmalek] Rigi's arrest, that's all."

0940 GMT: So Much for Unity. Davoud Ahmadinejad, the brother of the President, pronounced in a speech before Friday Prayers in Isfahan that the National Unity Plan "equals the reconciliation of Yazid with Imam Hossein" (Yazid, in fact, killed Hossein)". He declared, "After all these insults, why should we sit at a table for the 'dialogue of civilizations'? We have nano-technology and we have a nano-quarrel."

0930 GMT: Economy Watch. Member of Parliament and Larijani ally Ahmad Tavakoli, writing in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online, declares that the Government's claims on implementation its subsidy reform plan are ridiculous: "In the current year the administration has not taken an actual step for executing subsidy reform bill. The Government should have requested the permission of the Majlis [Parliament] for amending the bill, but it didn't."

Rah-e-Sabz publishes a long anlaysis by Professor Mohsen Massarrat with "Answers to the Riddle of the Subsidies", especially in the energy sector.

0905 GMT: No doubt what the big story will be this morning. Kalemeh has just posted its interview with Mir Hossein Mousavi (see separate, earlier analysis). The tone is defiant, but the deeper issue will be the substance of Mousavi's call. Defending the opposition over 22 Bahman and calling for a "spread of awareness" is fair enough, but it is the substance of Mousavi's 5 points --- issued in his statement of 1 January --- that gave a boost to political demands. We'll be reading closely to see if and how Mousavi expands that platform.

Elsewhere, Robert Mackey of The New York Times has a thoughtful, in-depth consideration of the regime's propaganda over the capture of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi. He raises the interesting point that the spin on Rigi's "confession" of his contacts with US officials is meant to discredit President Obama's "engagement" launched in his March 2009 Nowruz address to the Iranian people.

The Latest from Iran (23 February): Videoing the Attacks

2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Layla Tavasoli and Mohamad Naeimpour of the Freedom Movement of Iran have been released from Evin Prison.

2130 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Another sign of the "conservative" push for changes within the system. The brother of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, has told Khabar Online that the Expediency Council will seek to remove "ambiguities" in Iran's election law. At the same time, Mohammad Rafsanjani denied that the Expediency Council will seek to remove the Guardian Council's monitoring of elections.

NEW Iran Special: Interpreting the Videos of the Tehran Dorm Attacks
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi Statement on 22 Bahman & The Way Forward (22 February)
UPDATED Iran 18-Minute Video: Attack on Tehran University Dormitories (14/15 June 2009)
New Jersey to Iran (and Back Again): The Activism of Mehdi Saharkhiz
The Latest from Iran (22 February): Karroubi’s Challenge

1840 GMT: WaPo'ed (definition: "declaring an opposition movement dead without evidence and with dubious motives). Just a quick note to folks at The Washington Post: in the past 72 hours, you have distorted a piece by your own Iran correspondent to portray the demise of the Green movement on 22 Bahman and you have run an Associated Press report which declares from thin air:


Opposition forces were left disillusioned Feb. 11 after police and hard-line militiamen snuffed out protest marches to coincide with the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's 1979 revolution. Many opposition blogs and Web sites are increasingly questioning whether Mousavi or other pro-reform leaders have run their course.

Today you run not one but two opinion pieces which call for a "war of necessity" with Iran: Anne Applebaum's "Prepare for war with Iran -- in case Israel strikes" and Richard Cohen's pronouncement, "It may be time for Barack Obama, ever the soul of moderation, to borrow a tactic from Richard Nixon and fight crazy with crazy."

I do hope the poor editing/reporting and war whoops are unconnected, because there's the uncomfortable impression that you're trying to shove the opposition into the corner so you can have a bomb-bomb-bomb showdown with Tehran.

1835 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has shown solidarity with a visit to Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali, who was taken away and beaten on 22 Bahman.

1830 GMT: The Tehran Dorm Attacks. We have a double special this evening with Mr Verde analysing the footage of the assault and with the full 18-minute video of the attack.

1750 GMT: Political Prisoner Update. Fereshteh Ghazi offers a useful round-up of news on detainees, "Constant Intimidation; Repeated Charges".

1745 GMT: A Clerical Voice Is Heard Once More. Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has spoken up again about the abuses of the Government: “Power is a tool to defend people’s rights and, if rights cannot be defended based on that power, then that power will lose its legitimacy even if some would try to make up legitimacy for it.”

1740 GMT: Full-Court Press. As we predicted this morning, a big day for the regime's propagandists on the "foreign enemies" front: Press TV has another article on the capture of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, this time highlighting his "US-issued passport".

1735 GMT: Yah, Yah, Whatever. More spinning of rhetorical wheels in the uranium enrichment discussions. Iran’s Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, has submitted a letter that Iran is “still ready to purchase the fuel it needs for Tehran’s research reactor”. However, if buying is not an option, “Iran is ready to simultaneously exchange the fuel required for the Tehran research reactor with its low-enriched uranium within Iranian territory if the I.A.E.A. lacks the ability to fulfill its duties.”

In other words, Tehran has re-stated the position held since November, so no apparent breakthrough from the recent Turkish mission to Iran.

The Guardian of London has posted a copy of the letter.

1730 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Thanks to Khordaad 88, we've finally posted the English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's Monday statement on 22 Bahman and the way forward for the opposition.

1640 GMT: Going Off-Script (Economy Watch). But, in a break from regularly scheduled progaganda, Press TV has this surprise:

Iran needs to invest $24bn to $30bn per year in its oil industry to reach the 20-year goals of the country the Head of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) says....

[Seifollah] Jashnsaz stressed that Iran needs to attract more foreign investment to keep the oil industry alive. "If we do not make the necessary investment, the harm of the lack of timely investment in the oil industry will be irreversible to the country," he pointed out.

Iran faces an uphill effort to develop its oil and gas reserves because of credit concerns and issues stemming from sanctions backed by Western nations over its peaceful nuclear program.

1630 GMT: No Complications Here. Of course, for Press TV, there are no nuances in today's Rafsanjani statement (see 1335 GMT):

Head of Iran's Assembly of Experts Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has criticized the head of the UN nuclear watchdog over his recent report on Iran's nuclear energy program.

Speaking at the opening of an Assembly of Experts meeting, Ayatollah Rafsanjani said the recent report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) repeated the previous US accusations against Iran....Ayatollah Rafsanjani said, “It seems all the Western countries were prepared for and informed about such a report, which they welcomed after its release.”

He further criticized the 'failed' US policies in the Middle East, including Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine.

1345 GMT: Before going on academic break, two important points from an EA source:

1. The BBC Persian video of the attacks on Tehran University's dormitories on 15 June is being seen inside Iran, and it is causing much comment and anger.

2. Jundullah Abdolmalek Rigi was captured last week by Iranian forces. Some believe that this morning's regime announcement of Rigi's detention is a reaction to divert attention from the BBC Persian video.

1335 GMT: Non-Surprise of the Day. So Hashemi Rafsanjani launches the two-day Assembly of Experts meeting with this not-very-provocative statement:

Our focal point is clear and that is the constitution, Islam, the principle of the office of the jurisprudent and supreme leadership. There are those who do not recognise these, but that is not the case with the majority of people in our society. It is very important for us to try to safeguard these.

OK, so that Rafsanjani's now-obligatory alignment with the legitimacy of the Supreme Leader. What will be significant is how he uses that to press for changes in the system. Here was a clue: acceptance of
responsibility by those who permitted or carried out post-election abuses:

The events that took place at Kahrizak [with the Supreme Leader's order to close the prison] and the consoling of those who were hurt in these events, or the release of those who were arrested, have been along this axis [of responsibility]. [The Leader] is vigilant that there should be no turmoil.

1330 GMT: Citizen Journalism Alert. It's a convenient coincidence, as we post our special feature on Iran and citizen journalists, that one of the most prominent activists on Twitter has used his/her 50,000th tweet to announce the launch of a new initiative, the Global Freedom Movement.

1200 GMT: Prediction Fulfilled (0645 GMT). Press TV plays out the propaganda line over the arrest of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi:

Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najar told reporters on Tuesday that Rigi was arrested outside the country as he was preparing for a new act of sabotage. He was consequently transferred to Iran.

In a news conference following Rigi's capture Tuesday, Iran's Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi shed light on certain details regarding Rigi's arrest as well as his links with foreign elements.

Moslehi said that Americans utilized an Afghan passport for Rigi, a declaration which adds to already existing evidence on Rigi's links with the US.

Moslehi said that Rigi had contacts with CIA and Mossad and had even met the NATO military chief Jaap de Hoop Scheffer in Afghanistan in April 2008.

According to the minister, Rigi had also contacts with certain EU countries and traveled to them.

1055 GMT: Just before going on an academic break, we have posted a special feature, "In Praise of Citizen Journalists".

1050 GMT: No Comment Necessary. From Reuters:

"No power can harm Iran ... The Iranian nation will chop off the hands from the arm of any attacker from any part of the world," [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad said in a televised speech in eastern Khorasan-e Jonubi province.

0935 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Moussavi supporter Mohammad Estaki has been arrested in Isfahan. Journalist Kayvan Samimi has been moved back to solitary confinement in Evin Prison. Mohammadreza Razaghi of the Mousavi campaign and Asghar Khandan have been freed. Sara Tavassoli, daughter of the director of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been released.

0933 GMT: "An Assembly with Eyes Wide Shut". Anticipating the start of the two-day meeting of the Assembly of Experts, Rah-e-Sabz has a lengthy analysis of the divisions between hardliners and moderates in the body.

0900 GMT: Karroubi v. Larijani Watch. Now to the serious news. The pro-Larijani Khabar Online takes Mehdi Karroubi's seriously enough to launch a full attack on it as "destroying the structures" (sakhtar-shekanane) of the Islamic Republic. Khabar then pretends that there's nothing significant at all, as Karroubi's declaration comes 11 days after the downfall of the Greens on 22 Bahman.

0855 GMT: Mars Attacks? It really is a banner day for headlines. The English service of Fars News contributes with "Sunni Scholars: Aliens Seeking to Sow Discord among Muslims".

0735 GMT: Later this morning, we're hoping to get out an analysis of the significance of social media and "citizen journalism" in this conflict. For now, just note (somewhat ironically, since the film was initially shot by the attackers) the impact of BBC Persian and YouTube footage --- shown in a separate EA entry --- of the assault on the Tehran University dormitories on 15 June. As with previous YouTube video, publicised by Twitter and Facebook, the anger over the video is likely to support the resurgence of opposition.

0730 GMT: Over-the-Top Headline of the Day (2). In The Huffington Post, "Iran Invites Israeli Bombers to Visit Its Nuclear Facilities".

0720 GMT: Full marks to Nazila Fathi of The New York Times (and to The Los Angeles Times yesterday) for valuable coverage of the Karroubi statement: "It was clear from Mr. Karroubi’s call for a referendum that he did not expect the government to take it seriously. But his ability even to make such a demand and spread the message over the Internet seemed calculated to frustrate the Iranian authorities."

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has published a letter that it claims is from imprisoned student Seyed Zia Nabavi to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani. Nabavi, jailed for 15 years, declares, "I have yet to see a document authorizing my arrest and stating the reason.”

The student was detained on 15 June, during the first mass marches after the election. His sentence claims he was conspiring against national security and associating with opposition group Mujahedin-e-Khalq.

0710 GMT: Over-the-Top Headline of the Day? The New Republic, featuring Abbas Milani's profile of Mir Hossein Mousavi: "Iran Finds Its Nelson Mandela".

0645 GMT: An interesting comparison emerges this morning in news from Iran. On the regime side, the headline is the announcement by the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence that the leader of the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah, Abdolmalek Rigi, has been captured in eastern Iran.

I suspect the news will be trumpeted loudly today. Jundullah's suicide bombing last October killed 42 people, including six Revolutionary Guard commanders, and shook up and distracted Iranian security forces. This turns around the political situation: Rigi's detention and the blow to Jundullah will be held up as a symbol of the regime's triumph over foreign-supported threats to the Islamic Republic.

On the opposition side, however, the news about Rigi will be irrelevant. Instead, Mehdi Karroubi's declaration yesterday turns another page in the post-22 Bahman rebuilding of the challenge to the Ahmadinejad Government. Following the two meetings between Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, which have promised significant news, i.e., a plan of action, for the Iranian people, Karroubi's call is doubly significant. It is immediately important because it offers a specific political focus in the demand for a referendum on the Guardian Council. Its wider importance, however, is that it indicates --- despite all the repressive measures and propaganda of the Government --- that the resistance is far from over.

The key here is that the two events don't match up. So while the Government puts out its victory message today, listen but also watch for any Green steps. There are dramatic and significanct sideshows, and then there are main events.

The Latest from Iran (22 February): Karroubi's Challenge

2115 GMT: We've posted video, originally shown on BBC Persian, of the attack on Tehran University halls of resident on 15 June, three days after the Presidential election.

2100 GMT: Sanctions Follow-up. Earlier today (1555 GMT) I got a bit wound up about an editorial in The Wall Street Journal pushing --- I thought dishonestly --- for sanctions. Matt Duss follows up by taking apart the editorial's claim "prominent Iranian dissidents [have] moved from adamant opposition to severe sanctions to hesitant acceptance of the idea".

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Attack on Tehran University Dormitories (15 June 2009)
NEW New Jersey to Iran (and Back Again): The Activism of Mehdi Saharkhiz
Iran Analysis: Re-alignment v. Crackdown — Which “Wins”?
Iran: A Tale of Cricket, Andre the Giant, and Protests
The Latest from Iran (21 February): Catching Up

2050 GMT: Back to "Dirt and Dust". Ruhollah Hosseinian, the head of Islamic Revolution party in the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) and a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, has choice words for the opposition in an interview with Khabar Online: "The opponents received a firm response from the people....Before February 11, I have said that on its way, the raging flood of people on the anniversary of Islamic revolution victory will remove any dirt and dust."

""Dirt and dust" was Ahmadinejad's infamous description of his opponents in his "victory" speech the day after the 12 June Presidential election.


Hosseinian's claim of mass support for the regime? "When Karroubi wanted to join people, they began hitting him. When Mr. Khatami appeared, people followed his car and didn't let him to attend the demonstration. Mousavi was also forced to put something like a scarf on the head and go back to his home. So it's better for them not to taint their reputation anymore."

1940 GMT: And Khatami Chips In. Former President Mohammad Khatami has made his first statement after 22 Bahman, in comments to families of political prisoners:

Our Constitution stipulates that nobody is allowed to restrict political and social freedoms under pretext of establishing security. A major challenge is that one newspaper is muzzled overnight and many journalists lose their jobs. But worse is the existence of 'pseudo-press' enjoying full immunity to lie.

It is no honor for the government to imprison so many journalists. I warn that the regime will be on the receiving end of these painful behaviours

1930 GMT: A Special Karroubi Watch. Back from an academic break to find that the Los Angeles Times has posted a valuable summary of Mehdi Karroubi's statement (see 1450 GMT).

Karroubi's first challenge is a general one. Let the Iranian people assemble to see what they really think of the political situation, he proposes: "Authorize us to rally to show them the difference between majority and minority. We assure the authorities that no unconventional slogans will be chanted." That's a pointed response to the regime: if you really think you have a mandate on the basis of your 30 December and 11 February rallies, then you should have no fear of an opposition gathering. He declared:

Through state television and their state-run mouthpieces, hard-liners and violence-seekers are covering up their savagery during the 22 Bahman rally in order to exploit the massive turnout of people for their political ends. Military and security forces had transformed Tehran into a military barrack. State media did not carry even a single image of their military campaign, firing teargas and beating people. They wrongly imagine they can push ahead with their project of denying people their sovereign rights.

One tendency is to be afraid of people's right to hold gatherings and rallies. This tendency only tolerates the presence of its own supporters in official rallies and considers other people, even though a majority, as dust and dirt. The other tendency recognizes everyone as part of the Iranian nation, regardless of gender and religious, tribal or cultural affiliations.

Then the cleric focused on a specific test and demand, calling for a referendum on the powers of the Guardian Council.

The ruling establishment intends to describe the Feb 11 as a referendum for endorsement of its violent and anti-human policies. I propose a referendum to be held to lead the country out of crisis and spell an end to the sovereignty of the Guardian Council....

The Guardian Council has meddled with people's sovereignty under cover of arbitrary vetting process. The Council's interferences do not allow free and fair elections for people to choose an independent President, Assembly of Experts [the body that chooses the Supreme Leader], and Parliament."

1555 GMT: Regime Change Sleight-of-Hand. Normally there is no significance in publishing the US-based opinion pieces, calling for the toppling of the Iranian system while claiming to uphold the good of the Iranian people, but the artifice is so blatant in this Wall Street Journal offering from Reuel Gerecht and Mark Dubowitz, both of the euphemistically named Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, that it deserves reward. In the space of one paragraph from Green friend to the real agenda:

Now is the time for Mr. Obama to rally Americans and Europeans to the cause of Iranian democracy. If Mr. Khamenei can manage to crush the opposition, we will have lost an enormous opportunity to bring some normality and hope to the Middle East. Gasoline sanctions may well be too little too late to throttle the regime's nuclear aspirations. But we are fooling ourselves if we believe that what we've done so far will stop the Islamic Republic's quest for the bomb.

1450 GMT: Karroubi's Strategy? According to Gooya, Mehdi Karroubi has issued a statement to the Iranian people with two core demands: freedom of assembly and a referendum on the legitimacy of the Guardian Council.

1345 GMT: Why Are All the Security Heads Changing? Hmm....

Commander Ali Fazli, head of Seyed-ol-Shoahda Revolutionary Guards in Tehran, is stepping down. The announcement comes a week, Tehran's police chief, Azizollah Rajabzadeh, "retired" after six months at his post.

The Governor of Tehran, Morteza Tamaddon, praised Commander Fazli’s actions in the post-election events against “the seditious movement and the riots”. Which only raises the question....

So why is he departing now?

1210 GMT: Iran to IAEA Head "You Suck". Missed this when I noted Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman lashing the International Atomic Energy Agency (see 0910 GMT). Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki had set the tone on Sunday: “[New IAEA head Yukio] Amano is new to the job and clearly has a long way to go before he can reach the experience held by [former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency] Mohammad El Baradei. The report was Amano's first and, like many other first reports, it was seriously flawed."

1205 GMT: On the Pose Goes. Looks like Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's nuclear authority, has gotten his media moment today. Press TV is featuring not only his declaration that construction of two more uranium enrichment plants will begin in March (see 0910 GMT) but also that up to 20 sites for 10 more plants have been located.

The New York Times, for one, spreads Salehi's fame farther, devoting a lengthy summary to the announcement.
1140 GMT: A Lack of Insurance. The Financial Times updates on a significant development in the Iranian economy: leading insurance firm Lloyds has said it will not insure refined oil shipments to Iran if the US Congress passes sanctions legislation. This follows the decision of two prominent German insurers/re-insurers to cease all business in Iran.

As non-Iranian firms will not take on the risk of business in Iran without appropriate cover, the recent moves are likely to constrict investment. Specially, Lloyds' decision may disrupt the flow of oil inside Iran, raising gasoline prices in Iran.

1045 GMT: Pose of the Day. From the BBC:

The Iranian transport minister [Hamid Behbahani] has given foreign airlines 15 days to change the name to Persian Gulf on their in flight monitors.

If they failed, they would be prevented from entering Iranian airspace, he warned. And if the offence was repeated, foreign airliners would be grounded and refused permission to leave Iran.

0910 GMT: Morning Poses. The head of Iran's nuclear authority, Ali Akbar Salehi, declares, "Inshallah (God willing), in the next Iranian year (starting in March) as ordered by the president (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad), we may start the construction of two new enrichment sites." And the Foreign Ministry's spokesman wags a finger at the "West", "To maintain its prestige, we expect the [International Atomic Energy] Agency to not allow certain countries to impose their will on the international community through political approaches."

"The IAEA should adopt a legal approach to the issue of Iran's peaceful nuclear activities," he added.

0720 GMT: Our German Bureau sends us a photo from the Berlin International Film Festival, the Berlinale:



0712 GMT: Economy Watch. A shot at the President over health care, with the deputy chairman of Iran’s Association of General Practitioners, Masoud Moslemi-Fard, criticising the lack of funds in the budget and declaring, “At least two million Iranians will be under the poverty line with the current health expenses.”

0710 GMT: We start today with a feature all the way from the eastern United States: "New Jersey to Iran (and Back Again): The Activism of Mehdi Saharkhiz".

0700 GMT: With no big set-piece occasion and the opposition re-assessing its tactics, we're settling in for a long stretch of steady, if largely undramatic, pressure on the Government and regime.

Even as other media, noticing Iran on showpiece occasions but then walking away if there is no quick resolution, declare an end to the post-election conflict, the signals of the medium-term challenge are there to be heard. This weekend, it was the meeting of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and the manoeuvres of Hashemi Rafsanjani and his allies. Rafsanjani played a political card with his speech, backed up by Mohsen Rezaei, at the Expediency Council declaring loyalty to the Supreme Leader but calling for changes in the Iranian system, and then he made a symbolic declaration with his visit to Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali.

And there was the steady thump-thump-thump of the beat against the Government over the Iranian economy, complemented by the political challenge to President Ahmadinejad from "conservative" opposition.

So we're grabbing a cup of tea and taking up a position on the sofa. Nothing dramatic here; just the day-to-day, gradual shifting of Iran's political landscape.

The Latest from Iran (21 February): Catching Up

2220 GMT: Student activist Majid Tavakoli returned to Revolutionary Court today, 2 1/2 months after his detention on 7 December. There are no details of the hearing.

2105 GMT: On the Academic Front. Dr Mohammad Sattarifar has been expelled from his post at Allameh Tabatabei University.

2100 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has stated that it will continue its activities as scheduled.

2055 GMT: What Are Mahmoud (and Ali) Doing Today? Trying to out-do each other in the bashing of the West, it seems.

Ahmadinejad used a meeting with the speaker of Azerbaijan's Parliament to declare, "The so-called powerful countries are merely after their own interests. They are willing go so far as to sacrifice other countries and nations for their interests....The weakening of the so-called powerful countries will completely change the state of affairs on the regional and international scale."

Larijani's audience was the Parliament, as he warned President Obama about following the polices of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and declared that the 22 Bahman rallies had thwarted the US-Iran "plot" against Iran.

NEW Iran Analysis: Re-alignment v. Crackdown — Which “Wins”?
NEW Iran: A Tale of Cricket, Andre the Giant, and Protests
Iran: “It’s All Over” for the Green Movement?
The Latest from Iran (20 February): Questions

2010 GMT: Drawing a line. Peyke Iran claims that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has convinced lawmaker Mostafa Kavakebian not to press his plan for further examination of detention centres.


1955 GMT: Iran's Nuclear Cooperation? Islamic Republic News Agency is quoting the spokesman of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Ali Shirzadian that a delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency arrived on Saturday yesterday, to study Iran's nuclear safety system. The delegation is expected to spend two weeks on safety evaluation, procedures, and international requirements.

1820 GMT: Well, well, have a look at Khabar Online, the "conservative" website which is now almost non-stop in its challenge to the President. Khabar reports on Saturday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi without a hint of criticism and throws in a good kick on the "magically changing flag" issue:

The report [from Karroubi's Saham News]...reads that the reformist leaders had a conversation about "eliminating a symbol of Iranian national flag". Actually it refers to a ceremony attended by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran for the head of the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA). There, in a graphic design behind Ahmadinejad the green stripe of the country's national flag [green, white and red] had turned to blue.

Green is also symbolizes the opposition Green Movement led by the two former officials.

1635 GMT: Nukes, Nukes, Nukes! Today's hyperbole posing as analysis comes out of The Washington Post, where James Lindsay and Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations spend several paragraphs feigning deep thought before setting up for First, Containment But Prepare to Attack:

If Tehran remains determined to go nuclear and preventive attacks prove too risky or unworkable to carry out, the United States will need to formulate a strategy to contain Iran. In doing so, however, it would be a mistake to assume that containment would save the United States from the need to make tough choices about retaliation. If Washington is not prepared to back up a containment strategy with force, the damage created by Iran's going nuclear could become catastrophic.

The piece is notable not for any insight but for a shift from Takeyh, who had been putting forward a rights-first approach to Iran up to 22 Bahman.

1620 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (cont. --- see 1330 GMT). It hasn't taken long for regime defenders to respond to the alliance between Hashemi Rafsanjani and Moshen Rezaei to get changes in the Iranian system, especially the supervision of elections. Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of Kayhan, has warned that the Expediency Council --- headed by Rafsanjani and served by Rezaei as Secretary --- is trying to get rid of the Guardian Council.

1420 GMT: Alireza Khaliji, the son-in-law of Mohammad Reza Beheshti, martyr Ayatollah Beheshti’s eldest son, has been released from prison. Opposition activists claim the arrest was merely to put pressure on Mir Hossein Mousavi --- his chief advisor Alireza Beheshti is the uncle of Alireza Khaliji.

1400 GMT: Parleman News reports that journalist Hasan Zohouri, a specialist on cultural affairs arrested in the lead-up to the 22 Bahman rallies, was released last night.

1330 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Could this be an encounter with political significance? Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has met Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali, who was taken away and beaten on 22 Bahman. Reports claim that Ali Karroubi's account of the experience brought Rafsanjani and his wife to tears.

0945 GMT: Don't Look Here, Look Over There! Iranian state media are pretending not to notice Hashemi Rafsanjani's comments on the internal political situation. Instead, it's all Nukes, Nukes, Nukes. From Press TV:

“The [International Atomic Energy Agency] report was clearly custom-made for Western powers,” said the former Iranian President. “There is no way an international organization with an independent approach would make such comments.”

“The tidal wave of threats and accusations against Iran's nuclear activity has certainly been unprecedented, but [Western powers] should come to realize that they have no chance of forcing Iranians [into giving up their enrichment program],” said Rafsanjani.

Rafsanjani went to add that one expected that "foreign enemies of Iran would not opt for "aggressive behavior" after millions of Iranians took part in rallies — held during the 31st anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution — and threw their weight behind the Islamic establishment.

0905 GMT: There are Sanctions...And There Are No Sanctions. While the French Government talks tough about economic punishment for Iran's nuclear stance, this bit of Auto News:

Iran's state-owned car manufacturer Iran Khodro unveiled for the home market on Saturday the Peugeot 207i, a locally built version of the French automobile firm's 207 model. The Peugeot 207i will hit the market at the beginning of the next Iranian year which starts on March 21....

Pierre Foret, representative of Peugeot in Iran, said the launch of the 207i was the French car maker's attempt to "develop its market in Iran"

0855 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English reports that the Revolutionary Court has sentenced human rights lawyer Mohammad Oliyaifard to a year in prison for “propaganda against the system”. Oliyaifard is prominent for his pro bono (no fees) work defending juveniles in death penalty cases.

0845 GMT: Police News and Rumour. Iranian media have reported that Tehran's police chief, Brigadier-General Azizollah Rajabzadeh, is retiring after only six months in charge.

The rather tasty rumour is that Rajabzadeh was beaten up by a woman who is a martial arts specialist. The more prosaic reason for his sudden departure is the perception that his forces failed to keep order during the Ashura demonstrations on 27 December.

0840 GMT: Speaking of that debate over the state of the Green Movement, we've got a special analysis by Josh Shahryar on "Cricket, Andre the Giant, and Protests".

0835 GMT: The Green Movement Debate. Another voice to add to this weekend's discussion of whether the opposition in Iran has been crippled: expatriate intellectual Abdolkarim Soroush declares that the movement is "unstoppable".

0815 GMT: We're catching up with a lot of news from Saturday. Much of it is in our morning analysis, "Re-alignment v. Crackdown: Which 'Wins'?", as politicians like Hashemi Rafsanjani manoeuvre for some changes within the system to prevent implosion but the Government persists in its strategy of threats.

Elsewhere, reformists have called on Minister of Higher Education Kamran Daneshjoo to demand release of students from detention, an end to punitive jail terms, and exclusion of armed forces from universities.

The nightly ritual of gatherings and protests by families of detainees continues outside Evin Prison. Once again, some prisoners are being released to those waiting.

On the economic front, claims are being made in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online that $9 trillion (yes, trillion) is wasted because of the lack of modern technology in Iran's oil fields means 24% productivity, instead of rates, as in Norway, of 48 to 65%.

In Tehran Bureau, "Hamid Faroknia" of the Iran Labor Report has a lengthy, detailed analysis of the effects of President Ahmadinejad's economic policy bringing in cheap imports: "farmers [driven] to bankruptcy; industrial workers arbitrarily denied wages".

The Latest from Iran (20 February): Questions

1730 GMT: Political Prisoner Update. Lawyer Massoud Aghaee was freed last night on bail. (http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109018)

1710 GMT: The Iranian Parliament has launched its 4th enquiry into the Kahrizak Prison abuses. (http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/feb/20/1244)

1655 GMT: Economic Projections. Key member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has warned of possible zero growth or contraction in the economy in 2010-11. (http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13758)

1645 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi has declared that officials should serve the people and that if the people do not appear in public anymore, there will be great difficulties. (http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109009)

1640 GMT: Conservative Watch. Mohsen Rezaei, Presidential candidate and Secretary of the Expediency Coucil, has called on the Council to "apply corrections" to electoral laws. (http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109015)

1630 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Expediency Council, has declared at a Council meetint that "exclusion, elimination, and insulting" of figures in the Iranian system is a poison to domestic affairs and should be stopped.

Rafsanjani, reaffirming his position, declared that 22 Bahman invited Iranians to unity, following the Supreme Leader.
(http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109080)

1620 GMT: Afternoon Economy Watch. Bus drivers have gathered in front of the Social Security building in Tehran to protest against working conditions. (http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13750)

Iranian Labor News Agency warns that factories in many industrial sectors face closure. (http://www.ilna.ir/fullStory.aspx?ID=109010)

At least 1500 jobs have been lost in recent shutdowns. (http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/feb/19/1237)

Alireza Mahjoub, the head of a workers' syndicate, has said the promise of 50 percent increase in oil prices in next year's budget is "bizarre and inaccurate". (http://www.ilna.ir/fullStory.aspx?ID=109089)

1120 GMT: This Month's Twitter-Bash. This is almost as predictable as British weather: every few weeks, someone in the "thinking" press patches together faulty assumptions, a mis-understanding of social media, an Iran anecdote, and an "analyst" to claim that he/she has discovered: Twitter Had Nothing to Do With Post-Elections Events in Iran Whatsoever.

This month's 15-second fame of Twitter-bashing is enjoyed by Mary Fitzgerald of The Irish Times. She is not as obnoxious or arrogant as Will Heaven, but the piece plumbs the same shallow waters of "analysis" that does no justice to social media or, more importantly, to those in Iran. (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/weekend/2010/0220/1224264860222.html)

1045 GMT: The Flag Flap (cont.). Well, I guess the issue of the magically changing colour of the Iranian flag --- from red/white/green to red/white/blue --- isn't just a joke any longer.

At least not for the President's office: it has issued a statement that "light reflection twisted the colour" of the flag at Ahmadinejad's press conference this week. (http://bit.ly/crcDMW)

0905 GMT: Moscow's Two-Faced Missiles. Russia, meanwhile, plays its own game with Iran. Having given Israel one message by holding up immediate delivery of S-300 missiles to Tehran, Moscow balanced with reassurance to Iran on Friday. Press TV quotes Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, “There is a contract to supply these systems to Iran, and we will fulfill it … Delays (with deliveries) are linked to technical problems with adjusting these systems."

NEW Iran: “It’s All Over” for the Green Movement?

Iran & the “Non-Bomb”: The Real Story on Tehran’s Nuclear Programme

Iran Book Update: No More Good Reads in Tehran

Iran: Are The Banks Failing?

The Latest from Iran (19 February): Finding the Real Stories

0900 GMT: McClatchy News Service gets inside information on nuclear developments:

Iran has just sent a letter to the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, repeating its request for fuel to run a research reactor in Tehran that produces nuclear isotopes for medical purposes, according to U.S. and European officials.

They are readi
ng the letter as Iran's latest, and perhaps final, rejection of an offer the United States and five other countries made last October to provide the fuel by taking low-enriched uranium out of Iran and enriching it for use in the research reactor.....

"We understand that Iran has recently sent a letter to the IAEA that simply repeats its request from last year for assistance to acquire fuel - a request the IAEA has responded appropriately to with its offer last October," National Security Council spokesman Michael Hammer said.

"We see nothing new, and it would appear to reiterate Iran's rejection of the IAEA's proposal. Coupled with the IAEA's latest report on Iran's nuclear program, this reinforces why our concerns about Iran's nuclear intentions are deepening."

In other words, diplomatic stalemate. Tehran will continue to put forth its request for uranium through purchase or a swap inside Iran, while "the West" will insist on a swap in a third country. This could drag on for some time: both sides are getting public-relations value out of their positions.

0758 GMT: Cheeky Challenge of the Day. At the risk of reviving our own whimsical story of the changing colours of the Iranian flag, we read this morning:

A reformist member of Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Mahdi Shahriari said that if the replacement of color green with blue in Iranian national flag at the recent state ceremonies attended by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was deliberate, the president should answer for the change.

Speaking to Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) Shahriari, a member of national security and foreign policy commission of the Parliament (Majlis) added: "Such alteration is subject to questioning and giving notice to its perpetrators because it's against the constitution of Islamic Republic of Iran."

And where did we encounter this story? In some pernicious outlet of the Green Movement, spreading disinformation and trouble?

No. The recycling of the ILNA story comes from the pro-Larijani Khabar Online.

0755 GMT: The biggest question, however, is not over Tehran's nuclear intentions but over the state of the Green Movement. In The Washington Post, Thomas Erdbrink posts a devastating article which claims, from interviews inside Iran, that the opposition is crippled, if not over. We've offered a response.

0730 GMT: A Saturday morning which starts with questions and diversions. The "Western" news agenda is still dominated by the nuclear issue, but there are breaks in the narrative of an inevitable Iran march to the bomb. The Washington Post, a long-time bell-ringer of the Iranian threat, has this paragraph in its editorial, "Clamping Down on Iran's Nuclear Ambitions":

The number of working centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment plant is declining, though the overall output is still increasing. A recent study by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) showed that more than half of the Natanz plant's 8,700 centrifuges were not working in November; the new IAEA report records a further decline. Iran's enrichment of its stockpile is also proceeding at a snail's pace.

On the other side, the Supreme Leader's rhetoric, as he celebrated the commissioning of Iran's first domestically-made destroyer, deserves a bit of attention: "Our religious beliefs and principles prohibit such weapons as they are the symbol of destruction of generations. And for this reason we do not believe in weapons and atomic bombs and do not seek them."

While this could be read as a boiler-plate denial --- why give the game away if Tehran was pushing for a military programme? --- it may also be a signal to the "West", especially the US Government, that Iran still wants "engagement" through nuclear talks. (It should not be forgotten that President Obama made at least two direct appeals in letters to Ayatollah Khamenei.)

Inside Iran, it was a quieter Friday, but ripples of confrontation continue. The Kahrizak Prison scandal resurfaced as member of Parliament Parviz Sorouri said that the cause of the death of Ramin Aqazadeh Qahremani is not yet known. Three protesters are already confirmed to have died from abuse in Kahrizak. detention center.