Israel-Palestine Analysis: Obama Has Failed --- It's Back to Indirect Talks

On Friday, Arab League ministers endorsed the call of Palestinian Authority leader Mamoud Abbas' call to end direct talks unless Israel agrees to another freeze on West Bank settlements. 

The Arab ministers said they would meet again in a month to study alternatives and decide on next steps, giving the Obama Administration more time to broker a compromise on renewal of the talks. The Arab delegates want to see a clear path forward after the November Congressional elections in the US.

The Arab League holding action also offers the extra time that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs to urge his coalition partners to agree to Washington's pledges in return for a two-month extension of the moratorium on settlement construction.

Still, despite the Arab League's inconclusive verdict, a line is being drawn. The Palestinian Liberation Organisation and Abbas' Fatah party have now committed themselves to halt talks unless Israel offers a concession on settlements. The chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat told Al Jazeera: "Negotiations are tied to halting settlement building. If Israel continues to build settlements then there will be no negotiations."

And that position is bolstered, perhaps ironically, by the anger of hard-line Islamist movements. The Arab League decision "is not an enough step to support the Palestinian position in confronting the occupation (of Israel)," Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said. 

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) said the Arab League statement "is not enough and goes on in a vicious circle....The Arabs' weak position would encourage Israel to keep carrying out practices against our people and lands." PFLP said. The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine insisted that the Arab leaders should "find a reference for the peace process and impose a timetable for the talks as well as ending the ongoing Israeli blockade on Gaza".

Unsurprisingly, Washington's reaction was very different. State Department spokesman P. J. Crowley quickly expressed the administration's gratitude: 

We appreciate the Arab League's statement of support for our efforts to create conditions that will allow direct talks to move forward. We will continue to work with the parties, and all our international partners, to advance negotiations toward a two-state solution and encourage the parties to take constructive actions toward that end.

The Palestinian Authority has still not made a commitment, despite the PLO statement and Abbas' declaration that he is ready to leave the negotiating table; given the Arab League outcome, the PA may not do so until November. However, the position seems clear. Unless Israel agrees to a two-month extension on the settlement freeze, we are back to indirect talks.

For the moment, the Arab representatives have saved Barack Obama's face. But Washington, rather than just sending out another set of envoys, needs to spend some time in serious consideration of major steps. Abbas told Arab leaders that he may seek U.S. recognition for a Palestinian state if Israel does not offer a response on settlements. Alternatively, according to sources close to the PA leadership, Abbas told U.S. envoy George Mitchell that he will resign if there is no movement.