Iran Election Guide

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Sunday
Oct102010

The Latest from Iran (10 October): The Threat of Foreign Mice

1925 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Azeri activist Hossein Nasiri has been sentenced to one year in prison.

1830 GMT: Currency Watch. Iran's problems with foreign exchange appear to be affecting production. Paint producers have been crippled by problems with imports, leading to lack of stock for retailers. Steel producers, who import 40% of their raw material, are having problems with lines of credit and must pay a cash premium for shipping insurance. A similar situation is reported with importers of car parts. Reports continue of lines at foreign exchange markets.

1810 GMT: Academic Corner: Parliament is expressing strong objections to Government moves, in its 5th Budget Plan, to partly privatise Iran's universities.

1730 GMT: Government on Iran's Martyrs "Be Quiet". Hojatoleslam Ali Saeedi, the Supreme Leader's representative in the Revolutionary Guard, has reacted to complaints of martyr families about the Government and post-election activity. He said the families have to be faithful to the Supreme Leader, otherwise they are no longer defenders of martyrs' blood.

Last month Basij militia attacked and harassed the families of two prominent martyrs from the Iran-Iraq War, Hamid Bakeri and Ebrahim Hemmat. Bakeri's son was briefly detained.

1715 GMT: Diplomatic Front. Denials today that there is any problem whatsoever beyond the President and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. Ahmadinejad senior advisor Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi has denied rumours that Mottaki is to be replaced.

Leading MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi has also waved away stories of dismissal, but he added a slap at the President: Boroujerdi noted the the Supreme Leader had warned Ahmadinejad about appointing his aides as special envoys for foreign policy, but the President merely changed the envoys into "advisors".

1430 GMT: Welcoming the Supreme Leader. The Society of Teachers and Clergy of Qom have warned against plots to cause division ahead of the visit of Ayatollah Khamenei to the city.

1345 GMT: Labour Front. About 100 Qazvin workers have protested outside the President's offices this morning over unpaid wages.

1330 GMT: Nuke talks? A spokesperson for Catherine Ashton, the European Union's representative for foreign policy, has knocked back the claim of Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki that discussions on uranium enrichment will resume in late October or early November: "This is news to us. There has been no official date set for talks, nor has there been any official correspondence received by [High Representative] Ashton or her services with regard to a date for talks. However, [High Representative] Ashton remains ready to talk and is hopeful this can happen very soon."

1315 GMT: Disappearing Scientists? The head of Iran's nuclear organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, has accused the US and the West of attempting to lure Iranian scientists abroad: "When they come under pressure, the western countries resort to different methods to create problems for Iran in the field of nuclear technology, and one of the old techniques, which is now increasingly used by them is establishing contact with AEOI experts to lure them into the other countries for a better job opportunity." 

Salehi claimed Iran had restricted access to information to prevent the damage from a defection: "Personnel had access to (all) data in the past, but it is not so today."

The Baluch insurgent group Jundallah claimed Saturday that it had kidnapped a clerk at Iran's uranium conversion facility in Isfahan. It demanded the freeing of more than 200 Sunni and Baluchi prisoners, threatening to "releas[e] to the public the information gathered from Mr Amir Hossein Shirani, so the world finds out more about the Iranian regime's secret nuclear activities".

Iranian officials said Shirani had been a welder and driver at the plant but had been fired in 2005.

Earlier this year, scientist Shahram Amiri returned to Iran from the US amidst competing claims that he had defected or had been kidnapped. There have been several other cases of Iranian officials and scientists who have "disappeared".

0740 GMT: The Gasoline Squeeze. Reuters offers an intriguing, if outsiders', view of Iran's claim that it will become self-sufficient in gasoline production despite sanctions:

While Tehran is still managing to import fuel from friendly powers since the sanctions over its nuclear programme took full effect in July, it is also fervently pursuing gasoline production through an array of downstream projects.

Several analysts estimate that just two upgrade projects at the existing Abadan and Arak refineries will add 115,000 barrels a day of gasoline-making capacity, allowing Iran to fully plug the deficit sometime between 2011 and 2014.

"We expect Iran to become self-sufficient around 2013 based on the condensate and refining projects they've got," said David Wech of JBC Energy. "They are quite fierce about it," he said, adding Iran could be a net exporter by 2014.

Oil and gas consultants Facts Global Energy said self-sufficiency could come as early as 2011 or 2012 and that Iran could become a net exporter of gasoline by 2015.

But Iran's poor track record of finishing such projects on time and the deepening impact of the sanctions across the economy leave some other experts deeply suspicious that Iran can achieve its ambitions.

While refinery upgrades could succeed, analysts said projects to build new plants from scratch are likely to be more difficult and will suffer from considerable delays, or be scrapped entirely.

Apart from the delays, the strain of sanctions on the Iranian economy which restrict its business partners and limit its ability to raise cash and import know-how, would be the major obstacle in developing these projects, experts say.

"We discount them making any real progress on refineries over several years," said Jamie Webster, senior consultant, at global energy advisors PFC Energy.

0735 GMT: The Doctor's Complaint. The head of Iran's general practitioners has complained that the government has not paid doctors for eight months.

0710 GMT: Bazaar Watch. Most gold vendors in the Tehran Bazaar opened on Saturday, but some remain closed and sales were low. Talks with the Parliament's economic commission over a proposed Government value-added tax, the source of the dispute, are scheduled for Monday.

0705 GMT: Construction Watch. President Ahmadinejad presided on Saturday over a ceremony breaking ground for two of the largest transport projects in Iran's history. A six-lane freeway, extending 1,000 kilometers (620 miles), will run from Qom in central to the northeastern city of Mashhad, passing through Tehran, and an electric railway is being laid between Tehran and Mashhad.

BBC Persian reports that the multi-billion-dollar highway project is contracted to Khatam al-Anbia, the engineering company linked to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

0650 GMT: Looking for Unity. Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, the spokesman of the Guardian Council, has said Iran's system is half-Parliamentary, half-Presidential --- a sharp contrast to President Ahmadinejad's recent claim of his authority over the Majlis. Kadkhodaei said, "We are still praying that the government implements the laws of the Majlis." 

I'm not so sure the message is getting through. Ali Akbar Javanfekr, the media advisor for the President, has said that Ahmadinejad should not be put in the camp of the principlists, the leading faction in Parliament. Javanfekr insisted that all is well with subsidy cuts, Ahmadinejad's headline economic policy, even though they have yet to be implemented.

In the continued debate between the Parliament and President, which has prevented any implementation of the Government budget more than six months into the Iranian year, a Majlis commission has discussed 25 of 100 outstanding issues

0630 GMT: We're not sure this story has any political significance, but it does offer a distinctive start to Sunday.

According to Peyke Iran, Kamal Alipour, a Tehran city official of Tehran's municipality, has declared that the mice plaguing the capital are "foreigners". Alipour said that media were reporting that some of these unwanted immigrants had come from Belgium, but he would not name the countries of origin to prevent criticism from foreign embassies.

Alipour's claim has received the serious attention it deserves on Twitter, with observers suggesting that the threat be met with ID cards and pondering how to identify the mice as foreigners. One thought is that the female immigrants may have made the mistake of not wearing hijab.

Meanwhile, speaking of foreigners making visits to other countries....

Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has asked all Lebanese to come out and greet Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his trip --- reported to be sometime this week --- to Lebanon. 

 

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