Iran Election Guide

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Monday
Nov082010

The Latest from Iran (8 November): Talks, Threats, and Sanctions

2050 GMT: Talking Tough (US Edition). The chest-puffing of loud but tangential Senator Lindsay Graham that the US should act against Tehran "not to just neutralize their nuclear program, but to sink their navy, destroy their air force, and deliver a decisive blow to the Revolutionary Guard" has not only prompted a torrent of Chicken Little sky-is-falling chatter in Washington circles. It has, equally predictably, brought counter-chest-puffing from the Iranian regime.

Revolutionary Guard Commander Masoud Jazayeri has announced that the US does not know that it is Iran's hostage in the region, while Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei differs: Washington does know about Tehran's clout.

2045 GMT: Talking Tough. Brigadier-General Ahmad Reza Radan, the Deputy Commander of Iran's police, has said violators must be dealt with before start of subsidy cuts.

Radan's declaration is in sharp contrast to the assurance by the Minister of Interior last week that subsidy cuts are a "popular issue and we don't need security measures".

2035 GMT: Labour Front. According to HRANA, 30 Doroud Cement factory workers in Lorestan were arrested following a strike on 30 October over their part-time status.

1945 GMT: Blockade Watch. According to Saham News, the website of Mehdi Karroubi, Grand Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani was prevented from meeting Karroubi on Sunday.

1510 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Nazanin Khosravani,detained almost a week ago, has contacted family from Evin Prison today. She is reportedly in solitary confinement in Section 209.

1500 GMT: Today's Conservative Criticism. Another day, another challenge to the Government from Alef, linked to key MP Ahmad Tavakoli.

Having raised the stoning sentence of Sakineh Mohammad Ashtiani this weekend, Alef turns its attention to the Government's handling of the Foreign Ministry. It blames the Administration for not naming diplomats to vacant slots in Iranian embassies, comparing this with Ahmadinejad's controversial appointment of special envoys amongst his staff.

0920 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A human rights organisation claims that the trial in Revolutionary Court of detained attorney Nasrine Sotoudeh will take place next Monday.

0745 GMT: Resumed Publication? Elyas Hazrati, the editor of the reformist newspaper Etemaad, says the daily will be printed again after passing judicial procedures.

Etemaad was suspended by Iranian authorities at the start of March.

0615 GMT: The Basij Get Tough. Basij Commander Yaghoub Soleymani has said school students will be sent to military camps in the south for "practical defense preparation". At least 6000 students will be involved daily from late October.

On another front, the Basij have sent an open letter to the Supreme Leader claiming that Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting have contributed to "fitna" (sedition) by focusing on Tehran subjects and carrying reporting that are "too western".

0610 GMT: Some posturing on the international front to start Monday....

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said today that sanctions against Iran are "biting" and non-military action can end its nuclear development programme.

Gates' declaration is a political move, rather than a statement of fact. It comes as a response to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who told US Vice President Joe Biden on Sunday in New Orleans that only a credible military threat can deter Iran from building a nuclear weapon.

Gates responded from Melbourne in Australia, "I disagree that only a credible military threat can get Iran to take the action that it needs to end its nuclear weapons programme. We are prepared to do what is necessary. But at this point we continue to believe that the political, economic approach that we are taking is in fact having an impact in Iran."

Gates repeated the soothing mantra, "The president has said repeatedly that when it comes to Iran that all options are on the table and we are doing what we need to do to ensure that he has those options." 

However, the important context for this --- beyond Netanyahu's bluster and probably contributing to it --- is that Washington and Tehran are close to agreement on a resumption of discussions over uranium enrichment. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Sunday that Turkey had been agreed as a venue, with details being confirmed on timing and agenda.

Gates' quick response to the Israelis is thus a signal that this track of negotiation, rather than confrontation with Tehran, is the priority for the Obama Administration

Gates said that tough new sanctions approved by the U.N. Security Council were "bringing pressure to bear on the Iran government and getting attention."

"We know that they are concerned about the impact of the sanctions. The sanctions are biting more deeply than they anticipated," he said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has said Iran is ready to hold talks on its nuclear programme with major powers, and proposed the talks be held in Turkey.

"The Iranians have reached back out and said they would be willing to meet, but so far as I know there is no date or time for that meeting," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the news conference in Melbourne.

"Certainly we have made it clear we would welcome a return to the negotiating table."

Israel's talk of a military threat has raised speculation in Israeli media that Netanyahu, who has rebuffed U.S. and international calls to reimpose a freeze on building in West Bank settlements, was trying to shift the focus of his visit away from the settlement stalemate.

But Netanyahu had made clear that Israel wanted to see if tough economic sanctions could eliminate what it has described as a threat against its existence.

Netanyahu is scheduled to meet Clinton in New York on Thursday for a fuller discussion on Israeli-Palestinian issues.

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