Turkey Analysis: Erdogan Faces Political and Paramilitary Challenges on the "Kurdish Question"

With Ankara's cease-fire with the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) still in effect, discussions on the political level continue

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has responded to criticisms from opposition parties over his silence on the demands of the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) for bilingualism and autonomy.

BDP Co-Chairman Selahattin Demirtaş said it would begin a de facto bilingual system in municipalities in the eastern and southeastern parts of Turkey.which would enhance the country's democratic structure. Vice Chairman Meral Danis Bestas added:

Our proposal is that we want regional assemblies apart from Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM) and provincial assemblies. We bring this proposal to strengthen local governance because central government is not responding to demands. We don't want this only for a single region but for the whole country. We don't want Turkey to get divided but we want an urgent and democratic constitution in which everyone can feel himself/herself inside and and which can include rights and freedom in unity.

It is reported that BDP will publicly announce its proposals for local governance in a few months.

Erdogan responded on Sunday:

The official language of my nation is Turkish. The common language is Turkish. Attempts to change this fact cannot be accepted. Opening this fact to debate will benefit neither democracy nor brotherhood.

I am against both Kurdism and Turkism. Racism has no place in our civilization. But we respect nations. My nation has only one language. The official language of Turkey is Turkish. … This [language] matter is something related to social peace and social unity. To open this fact to debate and to maintain such a debate on the agenda will not serve our national unity or fraternity.

We will not leave the terrorist group's and its extensions' - as in all pre-elections - attempts to design internal politics by undertaking sub-contracted work again unpaid.

In democratic systems, political parties can have the right to bring radical projects and proposals but abusing this right weakens the democratic politics. 

The discussion of autonomy is an ugly trap set up by those who cannot digest democratization and Turkey's having advanced democratic standards. Will this nation say yes to these traps? 

Presenting such projects that have no seriousness and depth as if they are coming from my Kurdish-origin brothers' demands is a great injustice!

Those who talk about rights and freedom prevent the use of rights of my citizens in my region, with threat and pressure. 

Demirtas replied:

We are deepening brotherhood but the premier deepens divisiveness.

The premier is attributing himself as a partner to God. What is he saying? He is saying: 'I am going to make you one. You will be one language. My nation is one and your language is one.' And God says that 'I made you all different.' How dare can you make these one?

Which brings everyone back to the intersection of politics and a possible resumption of insurgency. Emre Uslu, the columnist of the Turkish daily Taraf, claims that the PKK will not maintain the cease-fire until the next general elections in June. Instead, Uslu asserts that the PKK is likely to attack in March unless the "Kurdish opening" does not bring a tangible solution to the demands mentioned above. Uslu's evidence is that the PKK's forces are not in Iraqi Kurdistan, their usual practice during winter, but most of them are still inside Turkey, ready to mobilize quickly.

This may be the PKK's "win-win" strategy. If  the demands for bilingualism and democratic autonomy are met soon, then this will be a signficant political advance If Erdogan's government does not respond, PKK will have the "suitable conjuncture" for pre-election chaos, looking for the outcome of an unstable coalition government.

In contrast, Erdogan appears to be stuck. If he gives "concessions", then he will lose credibility with many voters, especially those favouring a tough stance on the Kurdish issue, ahead of elections. If he holds forth against his political challenge from the BDP, he may soon face a renewed paramilitary one from the PKK