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Wednesday
Sep152010

The Latest from Iran (15 September): Ahmadinejad and His Challenges

1710 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy Move --- A Reminder (see 1310 and 1325 GMT). The Associated Press, for inexplicable reasons, is reporting that the President has "demoted" six aides from "senior envoys" to "advisors" for international affairs.

No, that's not a demotion, that's just another name for Ahmadinejad's staff as they take on foreign policy posts. (And AP might have noted that the President, far from backing down in the face of the Supreme Leader's criticism, has added two envoys-now-advisors to the four he originally named.)

And while we're talking who is trying to claim Iran's foreign policy, let's note a statement from the office of one of Ahmadinejad's Vice Presidents: it was the President who took the final decision on the release of US hiker Sarah Shourd, acting "for humanitarian reasons".

1700 GMT: Oil Squeeze (Subsidy Cut Edition). Tehran has postponed increasing the price of gasoline, despite the subsidy cut plan which was to be implemented next week.

The gasoline ration for private cars in the month of Mehr (September/October) remains at 60 litres.

1659 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An Iranian activist reports that, after nine days in Evin Prison's medical facility, reformist politician Mohsen Safaei Farahani has been transfered to a hospital outside the jail.

Safaei Farahani suffered a heart attack in detention last month and was briefly in Tehran's Cardiac Clinic before returning to Evin.

Safaei Farahani was reportedly accompanied by three armed guards, who will stay with him in the hospital.

1655 GMT: CyberWatch. The English-language site of RAHANA (Reporters and Human Rights Activists News Agency) has crashed.

 

Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News has been off-line today with a "403 Forbidden" message.

 

1410 GMT: The Prosecutor. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, pressing ahead with his media presence after this weekend's Sarah Shourd case, has declared that the trial of Shourd (who nominally has to return to Iran or forfeit $500,000 bail) and the other two US hikers, Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal, will start soon.

Doulatabadi also declared that the prosecution of the "leaders of sedition" will serve the security of the Iranian system.

1405 GMT: MediaWatch.  Iranian authorities have lifted the ban imposed this summer on Asia magazine.

1325 GMT: And Ahmadinejad's Press Guy Talks Tough, Too. Ali Akbar Javanfekr, the President's advisor for media affairs, has used his blog to take a swing at high-profile MP and Government critic Ahmad Tavakoli.

Javanfekr says that, as Tavakoli is a respected legislator, there has to be a reply to his destructive comments on government and the "illogical claims" that Ahmadinejad breaks laws.

The advisor adds that Ahmadinejad's special envoys, sorry, "advisors" for international affairs were chosen "because of passivity and inactivity of Foreign Ministry".

1310 GMT: Ahmadinejad Renames His Diplomacy. Sometimes I just have to put my hands up and admire the sheer audacity of the Iranian President....

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been subjected to a torrent of criticism --- from Parliament, from his officials, from his diplomats, and even from the Supreme Leader --- since he appointed four special envoys, including his Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, for international affairs.

So does he fold? He does not....

Ahmadinejad has renamed the "envoys" as "advisors", handing  them responsibility for exactly the same areas that they were given in the first place.

What's more, the President has added two more "envoys", excuse me, "advisors", covering Africa and Latin America.

1300 GMT: The Battle with Dastgheib. It appears the regime's confrontation with Ayatollah Dastgheib, which had been marked on Qods Day almost two weeks ago with the attack on the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz, continues to escalates.

As the ayatollah boycotted the Assembly of Experts meeting and called on members to join his opposition to the Government (see 1140 GMT), Iranian authorities have reportedly carried out a third round-up of Dastgheib's followers, detaining 39 more in Shiraz. The report claims almost 50 people have been arrested in the sweeps.

1140 GMT: The Cleric's Boycott. More on Ayatollah Dastgheib's public snub to the Government with his boycott of yesterday's bi-annual meeting of the Assembly of Experts (see 0725 GMT)....

In an open letter, the ayatollah urged Assembly members to abandon “deviatory discussions” and attend to the demands of the people of Iran: "After one whole year have we been able to establish relative peace in the system, free of fear and terror? If we still insist there are no problems in our society, then why do we have to consistently verbalize the need for unity?”

Dastgeheib condemned insults against Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi: “What did we gain from a year of accusations? From the national broadcasting to the judiciary and the military and security forces right up to the Assembly of Experts; have we gained people’s satisfaction?”

As we noted yesterday, Javan, connected with the Revolutionary Guards, countered by saying Dastgheib's absence was a sign of his support for “seditious elements".

1130 GMT: All-is-Well Statement of the Day. Minister of Education Hamidreza Babaei is not worried about impeachment by Parliament: he told his officials, "The MPs are my close friends."

1125 GMT: Making the Point, Missing the Point. As we've noted in our analysis, "Is Rafsanjani Ready for a Fight?", Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post makes a sharp contribution today on the escalating fight with President Ahmadinejad.

Not true in The New York Times, unfortunately, as the newspaper uses up several words on "Obama's Tack on Iran is Hard to Read". All of those words are on the nuclear game; not a single one is about the political situation in Tehran.

0955 GMT: More Complaints. It's not just Hashemi Rafsanjani who was giving Mahmoud Ahmadinejad trouble on Tuesday. MP Mohammad Reza Tabesh declared that unemployment is constantly rising and that the government had to solve that and also inflation, stagnation, and the high levels of imports.  

MP Emad Afrough argued that "a kind of religious Machiavellism" has been established in Iran, with the themes of the "hidden Imam" and the "Iranian school" (a jab at Ahmadinejad advisor Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai) serving merely to keep the President and his allies in power.

0855 GMT: President v. Parliament. Farideh Farhi continues our theme this morning with a lengthy evaluation of the contest between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and legislators for control of policy and law-making.

The piece is headlined, "Ahmadinejad Aims to Provoke Constitutional Overhaul", but Farhi gets to the heart of the political battle in the article:

Ahmadinejad is now challenging [Iran's legislative] process by refusing to disburse funds appropriated by the Majles and eventually approved by the Expediency Council. His argument is that the Expediency Council exceeded its constitutional authority by approving legislation requiring the government to disburse the funds.

Political motives are also involved. Although a member of the Expediency Council, Ahmadinejad has refused to attend its meetings in the past 17 months because of his open conflict with its chairman, former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The latter, in turn, has made a point of holding regular meetings and inviting photographers to take pictures of the president's empty seat.

The centre of the controversy is a 2009 bill to appropriate two billion dollars for the metro lines throughout Iran. After the bill was rejected by the Guardian Council, the Expediency Council sided with parliament in March 2010. The issue is politically fraught because Mohsen Hashemi, Rafsanjani's son, heads the organisation that runs the metro.

The Tehran metro, Iran's largest urban rail system, is also operated by the city of Tehran, whose mayor [Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf] is a political rival of Ahmadinejad, and who has said he believes the system should be run by the central government.

0830 GMT: We have posted an open letter from Josh Shahryar, "Haystack and Human Rights".

0725 GMT: A rush of news on Tuesday, with developments occurring so quickly that the political signals clashed.

Thus, the US hiker Sarah Shourd was released from Evin Prison and left Iran, initially on a flight to Oman. Even that process was far from clear --- did Iran actually receive any of the $500,000 bail/ransom, as opposed to a "guarantee"? and who put up money if it did change hands? --- but the outcome was far from a victory on all sides. Fellow US detainees Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer remain in prison without charge, while on the Iranian political scene, President Ahmadinejad did not get the grand ceremony he wanted before flying to the US this month.

Gary Sick, in a separate entry, analyses the significance.

But while the Shourd case made headlines in the West, there were other important events. The Government's repression of opposition escalated with the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi's head of office, added to the blockade which has reportedly been set up around Mousavi's workplace.

And then there was the apparent challenge to the Ahmadinejad camp from the formal Assembly of Experts meeting, which occurs every six months. Ayatollah Dastgheib made a pointed statement by not showing up, and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- who did show up as chair of the Assembly --- put out an equally pointed if somewhat coded warning about the Government's handling of sanctions and its political conduct.

More on Rafsanjani in a separate entry later....

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