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Friday
Nov112011

The Latest from Iran (11 November): Chest-Thumping

See also Iran Analysis: The Pattern of Confrontation --- Obama Wins, Regime Wins, Iranian People Lose
Iran Snap Analysis: The US Strikes a Military Pose
The Latest from Iran (10 November): Tag-Team Politics


1655 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farzaneh Mirvand, the wife of detained journalist Siamak Ghaderi, talks about the abuse of her husband in Evin Prison:

Even thinking about the days that my husband was in Ward 209 is very difficult for me. He was in solitary confinement for 34 days under harsh interrogations, was blindfolded, beaten up with a baton and threatened in order to force him to give a false confession.

At one of his interrogation sessions, an interrogator slapped him on his face so hard that he and the chair he was sitting in hit the ground. My husband is still suffering from the injury to his neck that he suffered during that fall.

Yes, for these pressures and other violations. I have gone to every place I could and have told the authorities about them, but they just laughed at me.

Even during his trial, my husband told the judge about his tortures, but he, without paying any attention to my husband’s remarks, issued a verdict based on the false confessions taken from my husband.

1635 GMT: Hype Watch. US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has warned against a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities: "You've got to be careful of unintended consequences here. And those consequences could involve not only not really deterring Iran from what they want to do, but more importantly, it could have a serious impact in the region and it could have a serious impact on U.S. forces in the region."

The Wall Street Journal, however, thinks the unintended consequences are worth it:

No U.S. President could undertake a strike on Iran except as a last resort, and Mr. Obama can fairly say that he has given every resort short of war an honest try. At the same time, no U.S. President should leave his successor with the catastrophe that would be a nuclear Iran. A nuclear Iran on Mr. Obama's watch would be fatal to more than his legacy.

1447 GMT: Tehran Friday Prayer Update. Hojetoleslam Kazem Siddiqi on the podium today, and he's happy to repeat the message from the Supreme Leader on Thursday: "The USA, Britain, and France will never win --- if a country wants 2 attack us, people will slap it in the face."

1437 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Iran's Inspector General, has jabbed at the President: "Authorities who commit violations have no right to issue instructions to the judiciary."

President Ahmadinejad has warned the judiciary, including in his speech last week, that it should not move against his Ministers and advisors.

1137 GMT: Morality Watch. A police circular has declared that women and girls are no longer allowed to ski in the absence of a husband, father or brother.

1135 GMT: Currency Watch. Najmeh Bozorgmehr, in the Financial Times, offers a valuable overview, "Iran Currency Market Feels Impact of Sanctions":

One US dollar bought 13,350 rials on the open market on Thursday – far higher than the official rate of 10,900 rials. The gulf between the two rates has been widening since January, when the dollar was traded at 10,700 rials on the open market and 10,550 at the official rate.

Since then, the central bank has tried unsuccessfully to bridge the gap between the two rates to bring back stability to the currency market. A 10 per cent devaluation of the rial in June failed to bring them together, and this month the bank introduced a third “subsidiary” rate, which stood at 11,990 rials on Thursday. This is primarily aimed at Iranians travelling abroad, who will be able to buy $2,000 at the new rate once a year for overseas trips.

Mohammad-Reza Behzadian, former head of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, said about 60 per cent of the country’s foreign trade was still dependent on open market rates rather than the official rate.

He said this meant trade had become more expensive and riskier because of currency fluctuations and concerns over possible international sanctions against the central bank. It has also come under increased government scrutiny on the open market amid concern at the exit of hard currencies from the country.

1125 GMT: Taking on the Supreme Leader. One to watch --- MP Meghdad Najafnejad, in a note sent to Parliament two weeks ago, has demanded the examination of the financial conduct of the religious charity Bonyad Mostazafan.

The Bonyad is controlled by the Supreme Leader's office and pays no taxes.

0735 GMT: Cartoon of the Day. Maya Neyestani comments on the nuclear issue:

0730 GMT: Chest-Thumping. On Thursday, President Ahmadinejad, speaking in western Iran, assured his audience that "imperialists will fall" as part of the "human awakening".

0720 GMT: Conservative Watch. The conference of the Tehran Province section of the Islamic Constancy Front started on Thursday with figures such as MPs Mehdi Kuchakzadeh and Ruhollah Hosseinian and Tehran Friday Prayer leader Kazem Sedighi.

The gathering may give clues as to whether the Constancy Front, formed earlier this year, will unite with other conservative and principlist groups. The Front has been hostile until recently, clashing with supporters of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer-Qalibaf.

0640 GMT: Normally we avoid putting the US-Iran political dance at the centre of the LiveBlog. The smoke and mirrors of that relationship, including in recent weeks, is often a diversion from the significant developments inside Iran.

This morning, however, we make an exception. After two weeks of chatter about an Israeli attack and the IAEA's report on the Iranian nuclear programme, we finally get to the question: "What exactly is the US strategy?" Scott Lucas and Dave Siavashi offer separate but linked analyses.

Meanwhile, on the real battlefront of the economy....

The Iranian currency has weakened again versus the US dollar and gold. On Wednesday, the open-market exchange rate for the rial was 13380:1 v. the dollar --- closing on a 25% gap against the official rate ---  and one gold coin was 620,000 Toman (about $500).

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