Israel and Egypt: Does Stability Follow the Uprising?

Following the departure of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, the Supreme Military Council released a statement  that Cairo will be loyal to its international agreements, including the peace treaty signed with Israel in 1979. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded that the "longstanding peace treaty between Israel and Egypt has greatly contributed to both countries and is the cornerstone for peace and stability in the entire Middle East".

President Obama also said that he "welcomed the announcement", after he had reiterated that the U.S. military aid of $1.3 billion a year to Cairo would continue. 

However, it is reported that the security of Egypt's Sinai, bordering Israel, could worsen if Cairo cannot take the necessary measures. Egyptian police authorities have reportedly abandoned dozens of stations throughout the peninsula after they were attacked by Bedouin armed with missiles and assault rifles. West Jerusalem fears that the peninsula could be the next missile launching zone after Gaza. “The Sinai is already known as a lawless land,” a senior defense official said over the weekend. “There is real concern that if the Egyptians don’t get the Sinai back under their control, it could develop into a major threat to Israel.” 

Meanwhile, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a statement:

We hope Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces ... will hand over power to a new administration, to be formed through fair and free elections, in the shortest possible time and a transition to a constitutional democracy, shaped by the will of the Egyptian people, will be ensured.

Haaretz's Aluf Benn thinks that Mubarak's departure and today's uncertainty has contributed to the region's stability, including the removal of one reason for Israel to attack Iran. Benn said:

Netanyahu is afraid of the possibility that Egypt may become an Islamic republic, hostile to Israel - a sort of new Iran but much closer physically. He hopes this doesn't happen and that Egypt will follow Turkey's footsteps, preserving formal ties with Israel, embassies, air connections and trade, even as it expresses strong criticism of its treatment the Palestinians. The best case scenario, in his view, even if it is less likely, is that Egypt will become like Turkey before the era of Erdogan: a pro-American country, controlled by the military.

Netanyahu shared with Mubarak his concerns about the growing strength of Iran. Egypt played a key role in the Sunni, the "moderate," axis, which lined up alongside Israel and the United States against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his allies in Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip. The toppling of the regime in Cairo does not alter this strategic logic. The revolutionaries at Tahrir Square were motivated by Egyptian national pride and not by their adoration of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. Whoever succeeds Mubarak will want to follow this line, even bolster Egyptian nationalism, and not transform Egypt into an Iranian satellite. This does not mean that Mubarak's successor will encourage Israel to strike the Iranian nuclear installations. On the contrary: they will listen to Arab public opinion, which opposes a preemptive war against Iran. Israel will find it difficult to take action far to the east when it can not rely on the tacit agreement to its actions on its western border. Without Mubarak there is no Israeli attack on Iran. His replacement will be concerned about the rage of the masses, if they see him as a collaborator in such operation. Whoever is opposed to a strike, or fear its consequences - even though they appear to be in favor, like Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak - now have the ultimate excuse. We wanted to strike Iran, they will write in their memoirs but we could not because of the revolution in Egypt. Like Ehud Olmert says that he nearly made peace, they will say that they nearly made war. In his departure Mubarak prevented a preemptive Israeli war. This appears to have been his last contribution to regional stability.