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Saturday
May142011

The Latest from Iran (14 May): Say Uncle! (Again)

1925 GMT: Syria Watch. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Council, has said Iran is supporting the Assad regime because Damascus is backing the opposition to Israel’s occupation of Arab lands: “Syria is providing great assistance to resistance, therefore the position that we have taken is very natural.”

1915 GMT: The Next Wave of Attacks (cont.). Uskowi adds weight to our interpretation in the previous entry, pointing to Ahmad Tavakoli's criticism of Ahmadinejad's Ministerial dismissals (see 1305 GMT) as unduly hurried, sending a message of political “instability” and his specific denunciation of “that famous, deviationist and problematic character” --- read the President's Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai --- as the instigator of the latest move.

1820 GMT: The Next Wave of Attacks. At one level, the political conflict in Iran is in suspension, with all awaiting the President's next step on the merger of ministries --- will he honour the commitment to consult Parliament by presenting a bill for approval? --- but at another, the next battle is already being prepared.

Alef, which is linked to leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli, has launched a series of assaults today. The most prominent is the claim, supported by memoranda, that Vice President Hamid Baghaei has awarded billions of dollars of no-bid contracts.

1715 GMT: Sanctions Watch. According to the Wall Street Journal, Germany has accepted a European Union plan to sanction an Iranian-controlled German bank that handles billions of euros in annual transactions for clients doing business in Iran.

The EU is expected to formally sanction European-Iranian Trade Bank AG (EIH) on 23 May when EU foreign ministers review proposals for new sanctions against Iran.

EIH maintains that its activities are legal and that it continues to operate under a German licence.

In February, Germany blocked a French proposal in Brussels to designate EIH for EU sanctions, according to two diplomats. However, Germany changed its position after Bundesbank investigators uncovered "increasing amount of evidence" that EIH had funded transactions for businesses that were sanctioned by the United Nations.

1605 GMT: Parliament v. Ahmadinejad. It looks like Ali Larijani has issued a wait-and-see statement on the issue of the merged Ministries....

In his outlet Khabar Online, Larijani accepts the President's power to dismiss Ministers --- and thus the removal of the Ministers of Oil, Industry, and Social Welfare this morning --- however, he says he is not aware of the bill to merge ministries.

In other words, the Speaker of Parliament awaits the President's confirmation --- through the submission of the bill --- that the conflict is resolved.

1515 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Attorney Houtan Kian, best-known for his representation of the condemned woman Sakineh Mohamamadi Ashtiani, has been sentenced to 11 years in prison.

Kian was arrested last October as he was giving an interview to German journalists about the case of Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery and complicity in her husband's murder.

Kian's 11-year punishment matches that of prominent lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh, who was detained last September.

1400 GMT: Cabinet Watch. A quick review on the situation involving Parliament, the President, and the merger of ministries:

It is now reported by IRNA that President Ahmadinejad and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- in a meeting presided over by the Supreme Leader --- agreed to a proposal by Larijani for the merger of six cabinet-level departments into three ministries.

The move will combine the ministries of Oil with Energy, Commerce with Industry and Mines, and Labor with Social Welfare.

Ahmadinejad's dismissal of three Ministers this morning --- Oil, Industry and Mines, and Social Welfare --- paves the way for the mergers. If the Friday deal unfolds as planned, he will now send a bill to Parliament for its approval and ask it for votes of confidence on ministerial nominees.

But if he does not....

1305 GMT: Parliament v. Ahmadinejad. The first significant reaction to President Ahmadinejad's dismissal of three ministers this morning (see 1135 GMT) indicates that it will not bring an immediate battle but may fuel further political conflict....

Leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli, an ally of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, has said that the simultaneous dismissal of 3 ministers is within Ahmadinejad's rights but is against national interests.

Tavakoli helped broker the talks between Ahmadinejad and Larijani on Friday which brought the prospect of a resolution to the ongoing clash between the Parliament and the Government.

1155 GMT: Journalist Watch. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has said he has "no information" on the whereabouts of Al Jazeera English journalist Dorothy Parvaz, who disappeared while reporting in Syria.

Parvaz, who holds US, Canadian, and Iranian passports, disappeared soon after arrival in Damascus on 29 April. Al Jazeera said on 4 May that Syrian authorities had confirmed her detention, but the Syrian Embassy in Washington said on Wednesday that the Iranian-born Parvaz was put on a Caspian Airlines flight to Tehran on 1 May, escorted by the Iranian Consul in Damascus.

1145 GMT: Justice Watch. In a case which has aroused international attention this week, Iranian authorities have postponed the blinding of a man convicted for throwing acid in the face of a woman in 2004.

A court sentenced Majid Mohavedi in 2008 to be blinded in both eyes after his victim, Ameneh Bahrami, lost her sight. Mohavedi assaulted her when she spurned his offers of marriage.

1135 GMT: Cabinet Watch. Back from a break to find that President Ahmadinejad has dismissed three ministers --- Minister of Oil Masoud Mirkazemi, Minister of Welfare and Social Security Sadegh Mahsouli, and Minister of Industry and Mines Ali Akbar Mehrabian --- as the Government pursues the merger of six ministries into three. Form letters of gratitude from the President were sent to the three ministers this morning.

The key question, amidst the current political tension in Iran, is whether the moves have been cleared with the leaders of Parliament. At the start of this week, Ahmadinejad faced heated criticism from throughout the Iranian establishment for proceeding without consulting Parliament. However, after the Guardian Council supported the Majlis and said there must be approval before Ahmadinejad could proceed, the President met Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani yesterday.

0700 GMT: EA staff are on a morning break. We will return with updates from 1200 GMT.

0500 GMT: Last Saturday we opened the LiveBlog:

"Say Uncle!" is the demand you hear when you are losing a fight, your arm, leg, or other body part twisted beyond pain. Until you utter the submission, the grip will not be released.

And so it is for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The next day, the President made a public concession at the Cabinet, declaring loudly and repeatedly his support for the Supreme Leader. Surely this would be enough to satisfy those who were castigating him over his failed attempt to take control of the Ministry of Intelligence?

No.

Yesterday the head of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Jannati, used the Tehran Friday Prayer to condemn the “deviant current” around Ahmadinejad, with public concern rising over conflicts that “have made some groups inside and outside the country happy".

Jannati made the headline call for obedience of Ayatollah Khamenei and religious leaders: “Some have tried to redefine the role of the leader, but that is up to the senior members of the clergy and Islamic experts.” 

But he also went much farther, attacking the "election preparations" by some (i.e., Ahmadinejad's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai): “The large sums of money that have been used and distributed are not hidden from public view. The day will come when the people and the regime will confront them, even though today may not be the right day to do so.”

And then, after insisting that the “wings of this deviant current have been clipped”, he offered a reference to Ahmadinejad and the 2009 election: "Whomever treads this path (following the Supreme Leader), the people will give their lives for him and if they deviate the people will withdraw their support." 

So how does Ahmadinejad respond? Well, his office has put out the word that he is appearing on national television on Sunday night.

Another cry of "Uncle!"? Or a fightback?

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