Iran Analysis: Guardian Council Smacks Down Ahmadinejad over Oil Ministry

I returned from an academic break just now to get a question from a journalist, "The Guardian Council have just said that President Ahmadinejad cannot be Minister of Oil. Is this significant?"

Yes, yes, and most definitely yes.

First, the news. The Guardian Council, which rules on disputed issues between the Iranian branches of government has declared that Ahmadinejad committed a "constitutional violation" when he named himself caretaker Minister of Oil last weekend.

Ahmadinejad had broken the news in a Sunday night interview, which was meant to close off the recent political tensions, especially between him and the Supreme Leader.

His critics immediately zeroed in on the annoucement at another attempted power grab by the President, but Ahmadinejad did not back down. Instead, his office let it be known that Ahmadinejad would personally chair a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna in June. Iran hold the rotating Presidency of the oil bloc, but it is unusual for heads of Government to represent their countries at the gathering.

Now the significance: with the verdict, the Guardian Council has again aligned itself with the Supreme Leader and other Ahmadinejad critics in curbing the President's reach for power. In recent weeks, the Council had also sided with Parliament over Ahmadinejad's moves on the Budget and on his attempted merger of ministries.

And it should not be forgotten that the head of the Council, Ayatollah Jannati, was stinging in his criticism --- delivered at Tehran Friday Prayers --- of the President and his advisors over their attempt to force the resignation of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi.

The reporter asked me a few minutes ago, "What does this mean for Ahmadinejad?"

My response: "He's a lame-duck President for the last two years of his term."

She continued, "Is there anything he can do?"

Further response: "Well, he can appeal to the populism that was a force in his election in 2005."

She asked, "Will that work?"

I answered, "No. It's harder to be populist when your people are suffering in a troubled economy, in part because of Ahmadinejad's subsidy cuts. And Ahmadinejad did not just have populist support in 2005. He had the Supreme Leader's backing."

And, I forgot to add, he had the backing of the Guardian Council.