The Latest from Iran (2 July): Watching Out for the Tehran Mayor

Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf1925 GMT: Reformist Watch. Mojtaba Vahedi, an opposition spokesman based in the US and an ally of Mehdi Karroubi, has criticised former President Mohammad Khatami for his call for "reconcilation" with the regime.

Vahedi said there is nothing is left of Parliament to contest in 2012 elections, as everything is controlled by the Supreme Leader and Guardian Council. He specifically denounced leading MP Mostafa Kavakebian as "no reformist" --- "All real reformists are in prison".

1920 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaking to scholars of Qom universities and seminaries, has declared, "If we don't keep a majority of ppl satisfied, there will be no bright future" for the Iranian system.

1905 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rahman Ghahremanpour, political journalist and head of Strategic Studies Center of the Expediency Council, has reportedly been arrested.

1850 GMT: Parliament v. President. The Ahmadinejad camp is trying to end the attempt to question the President in Parliament. Pro-Ahmadinejad MP Ruhollah Hosseinian has told Fars the Supreme Leader is “not satisfied” with MPs' efforts to summon the President.

Last Saturday, MP Ali Motahari presented the Presiding Board of Parliament with a petition signed by 100 MPs to “clarify certain ambiguities” through interrogation of Ahmadinejad, including topics such as the President’s delay in nominating a Sports and Youth Minister, the delays in distribution of funds for the Tehran subway system, and the administration’s refusal to implement "cultural legislation".

Hosseinian claimed some of the MPs who have signed the petition will withdraw their names because they do not feel it is “in the interest” of the country to summon Ahmadinejad at this time.

Fars claims that 20 MPs have already withdrawn their names.

1720 GMT: The Battle Within. Earlier today (see 1300 GMT) we noted demands from conservative/principlist outlets for the expansion of the "unity committee", formed by President Ahmadinejad several months ago.

Well, now it appears that not only has the committee been expanded but Hamidreza Taraghi of the Motalefeh Party is setting conditions: there has been no meeting with Ahmadinejad, but "if Government supporters agree with us", they can join the list of candidates for Parliamentary elections in March 2012.

1715 GMT: Back from a break to find reformist newspaper Shargh noting that the first 11 days of Iran's summer have started with "continuous blackouts". It predicts a fight between the National Iranian Oil Company, which has been accused of suspending fuel to power plants because of payment issues, and the Minister of Energy in Parliament next Tuesday.

Mohammad Nahavandian, the head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Mines, warned the Government not to stop the power and gas supply to industry.

1330 GMT: All the President's Men (cont.). And it does not appear that the President's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai is going to back down....

Hafte Sobh, the website linked to Rahim-Mashai, has jabbed at the Supreme Leader's former representative to the Revolutionary Guards, Mojtaba Zolnour, as a "curse dismissed from Sepah (the Guards)".

Zolnour, who appears to have resigned from his post to run for Parliament, issued a series of sharp denunciations of President Ahmainejad's advisors over the last month.

Hafte Sobh asks Zolnour, "Why don't you admit that you can't fire Ahmadiejad because of [your] fear of the people?"

And there's more....

According to conservative political activist Reza Golpour, Rahim Mashai has been telling listeners that "Khamenei has only seven million votes".

That is a jibe at the claim of Khamenei supporters that, except for the Supreme Leader's support, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would have received only 7 million votes, rather than the 24 million he claimed in the 2009 Presidential election.

1315 GMT: All the President's Men. Speaking to the reformist paper Shargh, Vice President Hamid Baghaei is nonchalant about the criticism and threat of arrest levelled at him. He says that his friend and ally, Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has never talked about the return of the Hiddne Imam --- a subject which has caused much tension with clerics and political opponents --- and claims that President Ahmadinejad, Rahim-Mashai, and he laugh at accusations.

Baghaei even asks, "What does 'deviant current' mean?", poking fun at the label slapped on Ahmadinejad's advisors by opponents.

1300 GMT: The Battle Within. In the current political conflict, even a "unity committee" linked to the Supreme Leader is coming under strain.

The three-member committee, appointed by President Ahmadinejad several months ago, includes an advisor to Ayatollah Khamenei, former Foreign Minister Ali Abkar Velayati, and Gholam-Ali Haddad Ali, whose daughter is married to Khamenei's son Mojtaba. (The third member is Mohammad Nabi Habibi, a leader of the Motalefeh Party.). Khabar claims, however, that the committee is not represenative of all "hard-line" factions.

1255 GMT: Justice Watch. Iranian security forces have raided the office of Dr. Sadigheh Vasmeghi, a poet and scholar of religion.

Vasmeghi is currently a Visiting Professor at a university in Germany.

1235 GMT: The Battle Within. Another front in Parliament's conflict with the Ahmadinejad Government? More than 30 MPs have signed a motion to impeach Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar.

One of the signatories, Jafar Qaderi, said the MPs would move for the minister's removal after Parliament returned in August from its summer recess.

1230 GMT: Oil and Politics. India's debt to Iran for oil shipments has reached $9 billion after payments were suspended early this year.

The Indian Central Bank halted pyaments from an Asian currency basket amidst questions over international sanctions. The National Iranian Oil Company threatened this week to stop exports unless the issue was resolved.

1220 GMT: The US Hikers. Iran's mission to the United Nations has refuted "baseless allegations" that it has mistreated detained US hikers Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer.

The families of the two men, detained on 31 July 2009 when they were walking along the Iran-Iraq border, said in a news conference that Bauer and Fattal were being subjected to psychological torture, physical abuse and a lack of due process. They met with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and sent to the UN's Special Rapporteur on Human Rights, Ahmed Shaheed, asking him to look into the charges of mistreatment and to seek the men's immediate release.

The Iranian mission "categorically denied" the allegations and raised the cases of several Iranians being held in U.S. custody "under false and unproven accusations".

The cases including a young mother of twin girls, Shahrazad Mir Gholikhan, was sentenced in 2009 to more than five years in federal prison for her role in a planto smuggle 3,500 pairs of military night-vision goggles to Iran in violation of the US embargo.

1050 GMT: The Battle Within. Arash Bahmani of Rooz Online summarises the latest pressure on President Ahmadinejad's allies, "We Shall Clip the Wings of the Deviant Movement".

1040 GMT: Energy Watch. Khabar Online reveals that the National Iranian Oil Company failed to deliver gas to 21 power plants for a week at the end of May.

Recently, the Deputy Minister of Energy complained that 15 power plants were not receiving gas supplies to maintain operations and were being forced to rely on liquid fuel reserves that were running low. 

0930 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. The newspaper Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi finds the ideal photograph to accompany President Ahmadinejad's declaration of a "red line" against the arrest of any of the members of his Cabinet.

0700 GMT: The Battle Within. Belated recognition of another shot at Government by leading MP Ali Motahari, who said on Thursday that the President "has to choose between Revolutionary principles and [his Chief of Staff Esfandiar] Rahim-Mashai".

0530 GMT: Picture of the Day. No further comment needed....

0525 GMT: Sanctions Watch. An English translation of a BBC Persian report explains the reasons and significance of the decision by Maersk Line, the world's largest container firm, to stop trade at Iranian ports. There are concerns that the step may have a serious effect on Iran's food supply.

0520 GMT: Green Watch. Our German Bureau recommends an article from Qantara on the Green Movement two years after the disputed 2009 Presidential election, "Bubbling Under the Surface".

0500 GMT: We had expected a quiet Friday in Iran, but even on a 48-hour holiday/weekend, there was more than a ripple of conflict. The President's staff tried to counter-attack --- after the State broadcaster IRIB censored Ahmadinejad's warning of a "red line" against arrest of his inner circle --- by releasing the uncut video of the remarks to reporters. Leading MPs say Ahmadinejad's "red line" should be the law, not his friends, and said a Parliamentary committee would begin an enquiry into Vice President Hamid Baghaei and Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

And then there was an intriguing statement from Abdolali Gowahi, the Supreme Leader's representative in Mohammad Rasoulollah Army, a branch of the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran.  Gowahi said there is co-operation with Tehran Mayor Mohammad Qalibaf because he is velayat madar (faithful to the Supreme Leader), but this has no connection with the March 2012 Parliamentary elections.

Ayatollah Khamenei's representative may have protested too much. An EA source in Iran says there have been discussion between the Supreme Leader's office and Qalibaf's camp about the political situation and the elections. He adds that there are rumours that the Supreme Leader's son Mojtaba is backing Qalibaf in his political manoeuvres.

This chatter follows a series of resignations by Qalibaf allies to run for Parliament next year. And it may explain why a pro-Ahmadinejad site this week attacked "the sons of the prominent" for inappropriate behaviour.

The EA source's departing comment? Watch out for Qalibaf not only to run for President in 2013, but to do so with some powerful support.