The Latest from Iran (2 July): Watching Out for the Tehran Mayor

Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf1925 GMT: Reformist Watch. Mojtaba Vahedi, an opposition spokesman based in the US and an ally of Mehdi Karroubi, has criticised former President Mohammad Khatami for his call for "reconcilation" with the regime.

Vahedi said there is nothing is left of Parliament to contest in 2012 elections, as everything is controlled by the Supreme Leader and Guardian Council. He specifically denounced leading MP Mostafa Kavakebian as "no reformist" --- "All real reformists are in prison".

1920 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaking to scholars of Qom universities and seminaries, has declared, "If we don't keep a majority of ppl satisfied, there will be no bright future" for the Iranian system.

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Iran Analysis (We Told You So): Why the Trial of US Hikers Bauer and Fattal Has Been Postponed

As EA predicted in September, the trial of detained American hikers Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer, scheduled for 6 November, has been postponed.

Officially, Iran's Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei is claiming that the trial could not proceed because of the absence of Sarah Shourd, who was detained with Fattal and Bauer in July 2009 when they were walking along the Iran-Iraq border: "Due to the absence of the third person, the court has delayed the trial time so that in between this time the third person can return to Iran or, in the event of her refusal to appear, her case be dealt with differently."

To be blunt, that is a very thin excuse. The cover for Shourd's release, arranged just before President Ahmadinejad's trip to New York, was that a $500,000 "guarantee" had been lodged that she would return for trial. Whether or not the money was actually placed in the control of Iran, that arrangement pretty much ensured that Shourd would not face further prosecution.

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