The Latest from Iran (19 January): Worried Yet?

2039 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Industry sources say Turkish refiner Tupras, planning to cut imports of Iranian oil, will meet Saudi Arabian officials this month.

Turkey imports more than 30 percent of its daily oil consumption from Iran crude.

A source estimated that Saudi Arabia could cover up to half of the Iranian imports, adding that the Turks also planning to meet with oil suppliers from Russia, Azerbaijan, and West Africa.

2003 GMT: Currency Watch. The Central Bank has issued a new warning: dollar holders without documents must deposit the money until 15 Bahman (4 February), or they will be prosecuted for money laundering.

1958 GMT: Claim of the Day. Grand Ayatollah Nouri Hamedani has some advice for the "West": "The only way to rescue your economy is a return to Islamic economy."

1732 GMT: The Battle Within. Khodnevis reports that the deputy head of the Basij militia in the Tehran District has been arrested in the past few days, apparently in relation to the $2.6 billion bank fraud and the tension between the President and the Supreme Leader.

1725 GMT: Economy Watch. Hojatoleslam Ali Banaei, a member of Parliament's Budget Committee confirms the information, which we reported earlier this week, that Iran lost more than one million jobs between March 2010 and March 2011. Chiding President Ahmadinejad over his promises that unemployment will be eradicated, Banaei said "Forget 2.5 billion new jobs --- just save existing jobs!"

1542 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in his cautious way, taking a swing at the Supreme Leader? He has said, "One-voice monopolism never helped to run the country and never will."

Rafsanjani also had a general swipe at other foes, "The Constitution is good but some do not accept control."

1532 GMT: Panic Watch. Gholamreza Jalali, the head of Iran's civil defence, has said that the enemy is aiming at water and sewage systems and chicken farms. Indeed, he continued, it is the enemy that is responsible for an outbreak of chicken influenza in the country.

1432 GMT: Threat of the Day. The pro-Ahmadinejad Raha Press warns of the possibility of the "physical elimination" of the President by the Supreme Leader's supporters.

1422 GMT: Currency Watch. Khabar Online reports that the price of old gold coin has leapt again, rising almost 5% to 830,000 Toman (about $460). New gold coin has held its previous level at 782,000 Toman (about $435).

The Iranian Rial, after dropping yesterday afternoon, is holding --- for now --- at 18200:1 vs. the US dollar.

1417 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. We noted the arrest of three journalists in three days (see 0945 GMT); now it's 4 in 4....

Peyman Pakmehr of Tabriz News has been arrested in Tabriz and sent to Evin Prison in Tehran.

1403 GMT: Health Watch. Hosseinali Shahryari, the head of Parliament's Hygiene Committee, has said that the Government owes 6 trillion Toman (about $3.4 billion) to the Ministry of Health and that hospitals even have problems paying for meals for patients because of subsidy cuts and 30% inflation.

1358 GMT: Criticism Watch. Prominent cleric Hojatoleslam Seyed Mehdi Tabatabaei, speaking on TV, has advised officials to "apologise to people for your faults, as high prices have broken their backs".

1349 GMT: Press Watch. The Etemaad daily newspaper has appeared again after a two-month ban.

1340 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Digarban casts a cynical eye over the appearances of the President, claiming that he is avoiding Friday Prayers and the ceremonies of the Supreme Leader. The site says Ahmadinejad has participated in only two events within the past 10 months.

1310 GMT: Questioning the Supreme Leader. Sunday night's challenge from former MP Emad Afrough on State TV --- the people should be able to question the Supreme Leader, given the Iranian system's lack of "active criticism" --- continues to stir waves.

Conservative MP Hamid Rasaei told Parliament on Tuesday that State broadcaster IRIB, which faced "spontaneous" protests outside its doors, had no business airing such statements. Others supported Rasaei, but Mostafa Kavakebian backed the programme,"Mr. Afrough’s critics want to hear no other voice except their own.”

And Fazel Mousavi, calling the treatment of Afrough "un-Islamic", asked, "What does it mean that a critic must repent or face death?"

1255 GMT: Satire of the Day. Khabar Online posts a political blog, Ya Lesarat asks, "Which government has managed to halve the value of national currency so speedily since the Medes [an ancient Persian people]?"

The colum jabs that the Government is busy reading people's letters "27 hours a day" and ponders whether its plansn to distribute oil among people would lead to the closure of National Iranian Oil Company, Central Bank, and Ministry of Finance.

1035 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Lots of rhetoric and mischief continue over the possibility of talks between the US and Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme.

US media are highlighting Washington's rejection of the claim --- made by Iranian MP Ali Motahari, possibly as part of his domestic campaign against President Ahmadinejad and "Constitutional dictatorship" --- that a letter from President Obama to the Supreme Leader offered talks.

However, buried in http://m.yahoo.com/w/news_america/blogs/envoy/white-house-disputes-iran-report-saying-obama-letter-201035124.html?back=%2F&.ts=1326933402&.intl=us&.lang=en&.ysid=8qJvpfToF_tffQZw4k76ABVnLaura Rozen's account is a much more important development:

American non-proliferation officials and diplomats have prepared a so-called "confidence building measure" for Iran to accept as an outcome of the next round of talks. Western governments see Iran's reception of the measure as a key test of whether further negotiations would be productive--or if Iran is even capable of making a decision.

Two Washington Iran analysts described the draft U.S. confidence building measure to Yahoo News last week, as they understood it from conversations earlier this month with its principal author, State Department non-proliferation expert and Iran sanctions czar Robert Einhorn. Under the proposed measure, which the U.S. has been presenting to its P5+1 partners, Iran would agree to halt enriching uranium to 20 percent, and turn over its existing stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium. In exchange, western countries would agree not to pass another UN Security Council Resolution sanctioning Iran.

President Ahmadinejad, during his visit to New York in September, offered the suspension of enrichment if the US would provide a guaranteed supply of uranium.

That leaves, however, the second part of the formula --- will Iran "turn over its existing stockpile", counting on the good faith of other countries to provide the uranium when needed?

That was the core approach of the Tehran Declaration in spring 2010, with Turkey and Brazil setting out the arrangements with Ahmadinejad, but the Obama Administration pointedly rebuffed the effort in favour of tightened sanctions.

Has the US Administration changed its line, despite its public statements? Does Ahmadinejad have enough influence to bring Tehran to the table for such a deal?

0955 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Syrian Front). American officials, via The Wall Street Journal, are claiming that they have uncovered an effort by Iran to help Syria mask its oil exports and evade an international embargo.

The officials said the initiative is to ship Syrian crude oil to Iran and then sell it on the global market, with revenue going back to Damascus. Transit records document a shipment of more than 91,000 metric tons of crude last month.

"A senior U.S. Treasury Department official familiar with the case" said, "The oil shipment to Iran was designed to evade the sanctions that have been imposed on Syria."

0945 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Sahameddin Bourghani, formerly of Shargh and Etemaad and now the editor of the Iran Diplomacy website, was detained on Wednesday, the third reporter to be seized in three days by authorities.

Bourghani's arrest follows those of Parastou Dokouhaki, one of Iran's first bloggers, and Marzieh Rassouli, a specialist on cultural affairs, on Monday.

0815 GMT: Rumour of the Day. The Expediency Council has denied that shots were fired at the car of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0810 GMT: Questioning the Supreme Leader. Baztab reports a "spontaneous" protest in front of State broadcaster IRIB to protest former MP Emad Afrough's appearance on Sunday night.

On the "Park-e Mellat" programme, Afrough said that the people have the right to question the Supreme Leader and to dismiss him if his answers were not satisfactory.

0615 GMT: At the end of Wednesday's coverage, two EA correspondents had a brief exchange:

The first commented, "Very slow news today. Calm before the storm perhaps?"

The second responded, "Lots of worried people not sure which way to jump."

The first replied, "Not worried but completely baffled people believing that the crisis will pass, if they close their eyes."

The exchange was prompted by the news, which suddenly emerged, that the Iranian currency had fallen sharply on Wednesday afternoon. Or, to be precise, this was the admission from inside Iran --- after almost a week of pretending that there had been no change --- that the Iranian Rial had dropped to a record low of 18200:1 vs. the US dollar.

How far the Rial will sink is an immediate question, but it is the effects that are of significance. Further signs of the currency crisis rippled on Wednesday, with more reports of falling production, declining investment, more expensive imports, and an inability to carry out transactions abroad.

And the rumbling is not just economic. This morning we note that the key MP Ahmad Tavakoli --- cousin of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- has joined the defense of former Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Alaei, who implicitly warned the Supreme Leader last week of the consequences of repression. 

Tavakoli said the attack on Alaei's home, with a crowd denouncing the commander and spraying graffiti on the walls, has damaged the honour of the Islamic Republic. 

Then there is the tension within the conservative establishment before March's Parliamentary elections. The Islamic Constancy Front, led by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, has distributed an 80-page bulletin castigating the "7+8" Unity Front and its chair, Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, the head of the Assembly of Experts.

The bulletin claimed that the Unity Front --- whose leaders including the Supreme Leader's senior advisor Ali Akbar Velayati --- does not follow Ayatollah Khamenei's guidelines and that Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf and leading conservative Alireza Zakani are behind "defamations" of members of the Constancy Front.