The Latest from Iran (4 January): If You Yell Victory, Does It Count?

See also Iran Feature: Explaining the Currency Crisis
Iran Snap Analysis: After the Show of Ships and Missiles, Regime Declares, "We've Won!"
The Latest from Iran (3 January): Desperately Seeking Reformists

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2145 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Turkish Front). Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has made an unexpected trip to Tehran today, briefly meeting his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Salehi.

No details of the discussion or of the agenda were given in Mehr, which said only that Davutoğlu would be meeting Iranian officials tomorrow.

2045 GMT: Currency Watch. Amidst the currency crisis, the Central Bank has ordered a decrease in the amount that can be exchanged under a preferential "traveller's rate" from $2000 to $1000.

Under the "traveller's rate" of about 13000:1, the Iranian rial is weaker than the official rate of 11800:1 but still stronger than the open market rate of 15700:1, thus enabling Iranians going abroad to get more US dollars or foreign equivalents for their Iranian currency. Iranians can carry out the transaction once a year.

(Hat tip to Moandor, who provided information earlier today and predicted the Central Bank would soon take a step over the traveller's rate in .)

2025 GMT: At the Movies. The Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has confirmed the decision to dissolve the House of Cinema, the professional organization for the Iranian film community.

The move was revealed in Iranian media last week, with the Ministry claiming the group was . operating without the necessary legal permit. The Ministry has long had disputes with the House of Cinema, many of whose members have been arrested and accused of threatening national security through their filmmaking.

Recently the House of Cinema has been targeted by Fars as the “House of BBC", as six filmmakers were jailed on allegations of working with BBC Persian and the Minister of Intelligence described the BBC as a front for British espionage.

1835 GMT: All-Is-Well Alert. S.M. Qamsari, the International Director of the National Iranian Oil Company, has said that Iran has ready alternatives if the European Union suspends oil imports from Tehran.

European Union diplomats said today that their government have agreed in princple to ban the imports but have not agreed timing.

Qamsari said, "We could very easily replace those customers," with some of the imports moving to China, other Asian countries, and Africa. The official assured, "We've got very high demand from our lifters, so we have the same quantity (just above 2.3 million barrels per day) in our term contracts," Qamsari said.

European Union countries take about 450,000 bpd, or 20% of Iran's exports.

1645 GMT: Currency Watch. Mardomak summarises today's Central Bank meeting with government officials, economists, businessmen, and economic organisations to discuss the currency crisis.

Notable in the meeting was the proposal to close the gap between the official and free-market rates for the Iranian rial. How this was to be accomplished is not outlined in the article, however.

1625 GMT: Sanctions Watch. European Union diplomats say their governments have agreed in principle to ban imports of Iranian crude to the EU but have yet to decide on timing.

The diplomats said the agreement followed talks in the last days of December among EU envoys, in which objection, notably from Greece, were dropped.

On Tuesday, Greece, which imports much of its oil from Tehran, said it would accept an EU suspension. The EU has been searching since its last meeting in November for alternative suppliers for countries that would be affected by the ban.

"A lot of progress has been made," one EU diplomat said, "The principle of an oil embargo is agreed. It is not being debated anymore."

A Turkish energy ministry official has said Ankara will seek a US waiver to exempt its biggest refiner Tupras from new American sanctions on institutions that deal with Iran's Central Bank.

On New Year's Eve, President Obama signed a bill including a measure blocking any financial institution from access to the US financial system if it maintains links with Tehran. If implemented, this would prevent most refineries from paying for Iranian crude oil.

However, the law allows Obama to issue waivers to firms in countries that significantly reduce dealings with Iran. He may also issue them if he determines they are in the US national interest or necessary for energy market stability.

Ankara gets about 30% of its oil from neighbour Iran, and Tupras, Turkey's biggest crude oil importer, is a major buyer of Iranian crude.

The Turkish official said a colleague would meet a representative of the US Embassy to learn more about the content of the new American law.

1525 GMT: Elections Watch. Mehr has found another reformist who has applied for candidacy in March's Parliamentary elections --- Ali Asgar Yousefnejad, a MP from Sari in northern Iran, has announced he will be running as an independent.

1305 GMT: Elections Watch. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has warned that "enemies, seditionists, and expatriates" want to present March's Parliamentary elections as a pale shadow of a legitimate vote, with low participation.

1250 GMT: Currency Watch. In an interview with the head of the goldsellers' union Fars reports the "rumour" that the Central Bank has put $200 million in US dollars into the market overnight.

Even if true, it is unclear if the injection will make a difference: a foreign exchange trader told journalist Thomas Erdbrink, "Everybody is coming to buy [dollars], but no one is selling."

In another sign of possible desperation, a Central Bank official has said that exchange traders who sell dollars "too high" will lose their permits.

Earlier today, the Central Bank tried to impose an "open-market" rate of 14000:1 for the Iranian rial vs. the US dollar, but traders continued to operate at 15700:1.

1200 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. On Tuesday, Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, was given a six-month prison sentence and banned for five years from political, cultural, and media activity for "anti-regime propaganda".

Today it is reported that the passports of the family of Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi have been confiscated at Imam Khomeini International Airport as they returned from the United Arab Emirates.

Mehdi Hashemi is now based in Britain as a doctoral student at Oxford University. Iranian prosecutors have named him as a conspirator in the attempted "velvet revolution" after the 2009 Presidential election.

1145 GMT: Elections Watch. Thomas Erdbrink publishes a useful overview of the state of the political in-fighting as campaigning opens for March's Parliamentary elections.

One of the most telling quotes is in the final paragraph of the article, with leading reformist Ali Shakourirad --- twice arrested after the 2009 Presidential election, his party suspended --- declaring, “The fact is that the conditions are not right for elections at this moment. There is a feeling of hopelessness. But those in charge are afraid if they give in to one change, everything will collapse."

1130 GMT: Currency Watch. Back from a media break to find confusion in Iran --- the published open-market for the Iranian rial of 14000:1 vs. the US dollar now appears to be useless. Thomas Erdbrink reports from Tehran, "US dollar now at 16,000 rials. 'Everybody is coming to buy [dollars], but no one is selling," foreign exchange trader tells me."

Erdbrink adds, in contrast to an earlier report (see 0950 GMT) that "iPhones still for sale at Paytakht computer center, as are laptops and other exported stuff"; however, "traders worried over [the currency crisis".

Farhad Pouladi of AFP adds that "some traders refused to sell at [the] rate" of 14000:1, imposed by Central Bank inspectors: "Instead, street money-changers in the centre of Tehran were walking around discreetly offering the much-higher rate of 15,700 to the dollar."

Pouladi adds that there is "no sign of [an] injection of foreign currency" by the Central Bank.

0950 GMT: All-is-Well Alert. State news agency IRNA headlines this morning that Iran had a 3.2% growth rate in 2011.

And, in a curious twist on the news, IRNA says nothing about the Iranian rial but features the story of "the dollar's decline against most foreign currencies".

IRNA's all-is-well outlook is challenged by Khabar Online, which reports that the decline in the Iranian currency --- and thus rising prices for imports --- has led to the "holiday" of many merchants of consumer appliances, laptops, and mobile phones. Aftab adds that some vendors are asking for payment in US dollars.

0930 GMT: Currency Watch. Journalist Jason Rezaian, in Tehran, adds an important piece of information: the currency website Meshgal is currently blocked, despite the denials of the Central Bank.

That would indicate that Meshgal's "information" of a recovery of the rial today (see 0910), available only outside Iran, is propaganda for foreign eyes. And that in turn leaves us wondering if a website like Khabar Online, linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and critical of the Government over the economy, has the "real" story that the rial has risen only slightly in value this morning.

Aftab, asking if Iranians should buy gold or currency, reports that many exchanges have stopped business, awaiting a further drop in the rial and increase in the value of the US dollar.

0910 GMT: Currency Watch. The surface headline is that, according to the website Meshgal, the Iranian rial has risen sharply and now stands at 14000:1 vs. the US dollar.

The rial now stands at its level two weeks ago, after a Central Bank intervention and a closed-door Parliamentary meeting following an earlier drop. It lost those gains within days and plummeted farther.

The extent of the intervention behind the recovery of the last 48 hours is unclear. And there is more than a little dispute over the extent of this recovery. Khabar Online claims that the actual rate, in contrast to Meshgal's official figure, is 15800:1.

Eyebrows are further raised as the Central Bank has denied reports that it banned specialised currency websites and prohibited the publication of rates earlier this week.

And it remains to be seen whether Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani will grant the request of key MPs Ahmad Tavakoli and Elias Naderan for an emergency session of the Majlis.

0730 GMT: We open this morning with a sigh of relief that Iran's 10-day naval exercise is finally over and a snap analysis, "After the Show of Ships and Missiles, Regime Declares, 'We've Won!'".

Meanwhile, we will start rounding up the real news, beginning with a look at Iran's currency. This morning, the rial is still holding its 6% recovery from Tuesday, standing at 16200:1 vs. the US dollar.

That is a far from settled outcome, however. Fars offers a sign of the nerves within the regime as it features a member of Parliament's Budget Committee, Jafar Qaderi, who says a single exchange rate will be introduced next week. That declaration follows a similar announcement by the Minister of Industry on Tuesday.

In principle, that single rate would close off the speculation and profit-grabbing, taking advantage of the gap between the official and free-market value of the Iranian currency, that has contributed to the plunge of the rial. In practice, bringing in a single rate within a week would be a bureaucratic and financial nightmare.