Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: What Happens When the Observers Leave?

Protesters stand in front of massed ranks of police in Sitra in Bahrain today (Photo: Mazen Mahdi)

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Tuesday's Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Newsflash --- "The Killings Continue"

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2115 GMT: The Arabic Network for Human Rights Information updates on four activists of the 6 April Movement who were detained on Monday for sticking up posters critical of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. One was released today, but three remain in detention and will appear before judge on Thursday morning.

2035 GMT: More photographs from Mazen Mahdi of protest and police in Sitra today:

2025 GMT: Protest in the Anadan section of Aleppo tonight:

A mass rally in the Al Doumair section of Damascus today:

1800 GMT: A brief clip of a meeting today in Homs between Arab League observers and members of the Free Syrian Army:

A funeral in Idlib in Syria today for two men killed by security forces:

Tonight's protest in Sarmada in Idlib Province, "I won't abandon this revolution even if I die":

1550 GMT: The commander of the insurgent Free Syrian Army, Colonel Riad al-Asaad has told CNN of plans for "huge operations" this week against "vital interests" of the regime: "We prepared ourselves for this stage We can't force him off with the peaceful demonstrations, so we are going to force him by arms to leave."

Al-Asaad, speaking from Turkey, said the Arab League mission of observers was a "mockery" with "no teeth", with security forces firing in front of monitors "who did not do anything about it": "I think [the Arab League is] covering the regime and blocking any international intervention to help the Syrian people."

Meanwhile, the Syrian National Council, which signed a tentative deal with the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change in Syria last Friday, said on its website that it is now rejecting the proposal and wants a new one.

Walid Buni, a member of the SNC executive board, said the Council leaders wanted more discussion, but the NCB, which is largely based inside Syria, told the media that the deal was final. Khalid Kamal, an SNC member, said the sides are disagreeing over the proportion of NCB representation and the NCB's failure to call for the United Nations Security Council to protect civilians.

1440 GMT: EA has received this video, reportedly showing the tear gas being fired by police in Sitra in Bahrain. We'd note that in discussions EA correspondents have had with Western law enforcement officials, they have all been bothered by the extremely high volume of tear gas used by Bahraini police --- when it is fired this thickly, in a small area, it can become dangerous:

Another activist posts this photo, showing tear gas so dense that observers can only see a few feet into the cloud:

1340 GMT: Reports are coming in that the security forces have fired tear gas to disperse protesters after the funeral procession in Sitra for Sayed Hashim:

Police move into Sitra after dispersing the procession:

1313 GMT: Footage of mourners shouting anti-regime slogans during the funeral procession for 16-year-old Sayed Hashim, killed by a tear gas canister thrown by security forces last week:

This morning's protest by dismissed workers in front of the Ministry of Labour:

1213 GMT: A large demonstration this morning Kernaz in Hama Province in Syria:

1210 GMT: Saudi Arabia has ignored the Tunisian Government's request for the extradition of former President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali.

Tunis wants to try Ben Ali for his role in the clampdown on the uprising, in which more than 300 people were killed that finally toppled him in February. "We have asked for his extradition on two occasions, but we have not received any reply," said Hedi Ayari, who presides over the trial of Ben Ali and about 40 other senior officials for the killing of 43 protesters and wounding of 97 others in Tunis and northern towns such as Bizerte and Nabeul.

Ben Ali, his former security chiefs Adel Touiri and Lotfi Zouaoui, and two of his interior ministers risk the death penalty if found guilty.

1010 GMT: Bahrain's regime appears to be moving towards tough penalties against "cyber-crime", which could cover dissent as well as criminal offences and "terrorism".

Penalties, in the bill adopted by MPs and now being considered by the Shura Council, could be up to 10 years in jail and a fine of up to BD300,000.

The bill gives the Public Prosecution the right to block any information on the Internet and access computer accounts of suspects during an investigation.

0900 GMT: Notes by Noon summarises latest developments in Yemen, notably the emergence of strikes by State employees protesting about corrupt executives and their connections with the regime:

In the past weeks, the Yemeni revolution spread from the streets to the institutions. Demonstrations and strikes in the governmental and public, academic, commercial & medical sectors against corruption swept across cities of Yemen. The "parallel revolution" demanded the immediate dismissal of "the untouchables", the corrupt officials who unlawfully exerted their authority, embezzled and terrorized their subordinates. Some of the institutions affected so far include, the National Airlines "Yemenia", the State TV in Sanaa and Aden, the Police Headquarters, the Military Economic Institution, the Armed Forces Moral Guidance Department, the Agriculture and Irrigation office, the Coast Guard, the Naval Academy, the Traffic Police, Sanaa University, the Yemen Bank of Reconstruction and Development, the Thawrah Hospital in Taiz, the Central Organization of Control and Audit in both Aden and Taiz, and the Finance Office in Taiz.

0700 GMT: In Bahrain, there is another funeral --- with the likely clashes between security forces and protesters that follow --- to watch today. Fakhriya Jassim, a 55-year-old mother of five and grandmother of ten, apparently died from the effects of tear gas inhalation on New Year's Eve.

There will also be another march of dismissed workers to the Ministry of Labour this morning, the 7th protest over the removal of between 1400 and 2600 employees for political reasons:

A march in Sitra last night demands that those responsible for the death of 16-year-old Sayed Hashim, killed by a tear gas canister last week, be found and tried:

0630 GMT: The immediate story is that the Arab League has called an emergency meeting on Saturday to discuss a preliminary report from its monitors in Syria. Those present will include secretary-general Nabil El Araby, the Arab League secretary-general, and the foreign ministers of Egypt, Sudan, Algeria, Qatar and Oman. 

There is so much more beyond this, however. Within Syria, there will be the question of how hard the regime hits --- given that it did not let up in certain places, such as Homs, even while the observers were present --- after the monitors have departed.

And then there is the question of what not only the League but the international community does. We discussed this at length on Tuesday, considering in particular whether a "safe haven" would be declared in parts of Syria, notably the northwest.

We are still not agreed on the prospect. I think it is much more likely now, especially if the Assad military makes another high-profile assault on a town or city; James Miller sees this as a question beyond April.

What can be said, I think, is that if the Arab League acts, it will not be on its own. A significant step will only take place after a lot of back-room discussion with other countries and will soon bring their own invovlement. As was the case with Libya, an Arab League call for intervention would be followed by the "West" --- especially France, but also the US --- and the United Nations.

In that scenario, watch Saudi Arabia, whose political and military weight is considerable within the League (interestingly, Riyadh is not sending a high-level representative to Saturday's meeting, possibly indicating caution). Watch Turkey, who is directly involved with its border and long-time territorial issues with Syria and who would likely be part of any military action for a safe haven.