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Sunday
Oct072012

The Latest from Iran (7 October): "The Devil Has Disrupted Our Economy"

See also Iran Analysis: Has the Regime Solved the Currency Crisis?
The Latest from Iran (6 October): "There is No Crisis"


2033 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Malaysia's Air Asia has cancelled flights to Iran from 14 October, citing difficulties in transferring money amid sanctions.

2028 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Sam Mahmoudi Sarabi has received an eight-year prison sentence and 10-year occupational ban.

1647 GMT: Surveillance Watch. The Ministry of Intelligence has launched a website, vaja.ir, which gives the location of agency buildings in provincial towns and encourages Iranians to contact the Ministry if they have information.

The website, launched Saturday and available only to those with an IP address inside Iran, also highlights claimed achievements of the Islamic Republic in its intelligence battle with the West, such as its alleged downing of a US surveillance drone last year.

1639 GMT: Claim of the Weekend. In his latest letter, filmmaker Mohammad Reza Nourizad has claimed that the Supreme Leader's son, Mojtaba, took an 800 million Toman (about $650,000 bribe) from an Iranian businessman and was involved in the clampdown on protesters after the 2009 Presidential election, co-operating with the Basij militia and Revolutionary Guards.

Nourizad was arrested in 2009 over his letters to the Supreme Leader and spent almost two years in prison.

1635 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Mehr reports that 93 MPs have signed a petition to question the President over his remarks on the currency crisis.

If true, the number is well about the 74 signatures --- 1/4 of the Parliament --- needed to summon Ahmadinejad.

1450 GMT: Threat of the Day. Mohammad Saleh-Jokar, a member of Parliament's National Security Committee has warned that Iran will adopt “preemptive” sanctions in retaliation for any cut-off of Iranian gas exports by the European Union.

“Under the present circumstances, Iran exports no gas to Europe and this recent sanction against Iran merely serves psychological and propaganda purposes,” Saleh-Jokar said. “These sanctions would leave no impact on the country’s economy and would have no benefit for Europe other than creating a psychological anti-Iran mood in the global diplomacy atmosphere."

Saleh-Jokar continued, “With the advent of the cold season, Europe and the West would need Iran’s oil and gas. Europe has already suffered huge losses due to its anti-Iran embargoes including the oil ban, and some of the crises that the European economy [is grappling with] stem from these sanctions."

US and European diplomats told media last week that the EU will consider the ban on imports of Iranian gas at a meeting of EU foreign ministers on 15 October in Luxembourg.

1425 GMT: Economy Watch. Parliament has voted to consider a suspension of plans for further subsidy cuts, the flagship programme of President Ahmaidnejad, citing difficulties with currency and the economy.

Of 240 MPs who were present, 179 voted to consider whether to halt the second phase of the cuts.

The Government implemented the first phase in December 2010, but despite repeated declarations from the end of 2011 that the second phase was "imminent", has not begun the further cuts, offset by monthly support payments.

"In conditions in which the inflation rate is increasing and the currency market is in disorder, the second phase of this law must be stopped," said Gholamreza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, head of the Budget and Planning Committee.

1351 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. In an interview with the Arman newspaper, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has said, "The current economic situation is a product of mismanagement and sanctions."

Blaming both the Government and "hard-liners" for discussing, rather than acting, Rafsanjani said domestic production is strong but has been weakened by a lack of capital as inflation and unemployment rise.

An EA correspondent summarises, "Rafsanjani repeats advice by Iranian economic experts that Ahmadinejad and his inner circle continue to ignore."

1345 GMT:. Currency Watch. AFP reports that most official exchange shops are open in Tehran but are refusing to sell foreign exchange at the rate of 28500 Rials to 1 US dollar, commanded by the Central Bank on Saturday.

Witnesses said the few transactions under the table were in the range of 30000:1 to 32000:1.

1009 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Ali Akbar Dareini of the Associated Press writes about the Iranian initiative, noted in the August report of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to convert more than a third of its 20% uranium into powder for a medical research reactor.

0943 GMT: Currency Watch. State news agency IRNA puts out the assurance of the Central Bank that "currency exchange rates will continue to decline significantly", as the Rial was strengthened in the Bank's "trade room" for the third consecutive day.

The trade room rate, offering a discount on the supposed rate in the open market, is now 25650 Rials to 1 US dollar, according to Mesghal.

0931 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Iraqi and Syrian Front). Iran's Ambassador to Iraq, Hassan Danaeifar, has warned Baghdad about the consequences of inspecting Syria-bound Iranian cargo planes, saying Tehran will act against Iraqi aircraft.

After pressure from the US, which claimed Tehran was sending equipment and personnel to Damascus, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said Iraq would force any suspect Iranian plane over its territory to land for inspection. On 2 October, Iraq stopped and inspected a Damascus-bound Iran Air cargo plane from Tehran but found no prohibited items.

Danaeifar said today, “What Iraq did regarding the inspection of the planes bound for Syria is not in accordance with the diplomatic norms between the two countries and runs counter to the two states’ security agreements and air transportation treaty."

0925 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Libyan Edition). Seven Iranian aid workers held hostage in Libya for 65 days have arrived in Tehran, a day after they were released.

The men, from the Iranian Red Crescent Society, were seized by unidentified gunmen in Benghazi.

0705 GMT: Amid the regime's attempts on Saturday to display a "solution" to the currency problem, as well as the all-is-normal of the reopening of the Tehran Bureau, President Ahmadinejad offered a revealing statement in his public pondering on the economy: "The market is disrupted by the devil."

Ahmadinejad may not necessarily believe that Satan is the culprit. However, his assertion points to the belief that the economic problems have nothing to do with Government policies or structural issues --- indeed, the President said last week that he and his advisors "were not to blame".

That leaves the impression that everything can be fixed if the "devils" who have disrupted the system can be rounded up and, indeed, the judiciary announced Saturday that 30 people had been detained. In addition, the regime's introduction of a third fixed rate --- including two in the last two weeks --- to display a strengthened Rial was accompanied by an attempt to control information about what might actually be happening in foreign exchanges and currency markets.

Will this deal with the "Devil"? We offer an analysis, "Has the Regime Solved the Currency Crisis?"

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