The Latest from Iran (18 June): The Nuclear Talks in Moscow

See also Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, A Supreme Leader's Dilemma
Remember Iran Flashback: Sifting Information from Rumours on Twitter
The Latest from Iran (17 June): "So What?" News --- Ahmadinejad to Leave Politics

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2046 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Julian Borger of The Guardian reveals both the Iranian PowerPoint presentation rejecting the 5+1 proposal of "stop, shut, and ship" 20% enriched uranium and Tehran's five-point plan:

1) The right to enrich uranium, coupled with the 'operationalisation' of the Supreme Leader's fatwa against nuclear weapons. [Lead Iranian negotiator Saeed] Jalili suggested this could be done in the form of a UN document, in which Iran promised not to pursue weapons in return for continuing to enrich;

2) Relief from sanctions in return for cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency;

3) Nuclear cooperation in the fields of civilian nuclear energy production and nuclear safety;

4) Confidence-building measures, possibly involving limits on production of 20% uranium;

5) Non-nuclear issues like cooperation on counter-narcotics plus regional matters like Syria and Bahrain.

2036 GMT: Parliament v. President. One note of compromise amid the political tensions --- Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and President Ahmadinejad have agreed on adding 3000 Toman (about $2.40 at offical rate) to monthly support payments to pay increased bread prices caused by subsidy cuts.

2032 GMT: Execution Watch. Iran Green Voice writes that three Ahwazi Arabs have been executed on charges of "mohareb" (war against God).

2028 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online reports that price for one kilogramme (2.2 pounds) of rice in Tehran has hit a new record of 6000 Toman (about $4.90 at official rate), twice as high a the cost to the north on the Caspian Sea.

2018 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Justyna Pawlak and Yeganeh Torbati of Reuters offer an overview of today's discussions. The general tenor is one of pessimism: while the Western side said Iran had finally addressed the issue of enrichment of 20% uranium, they framed the negotiations as "intense and tough".

And the Iranian view? "Up to now the environment is not positive at all."

Meanwhile, leading Iranian politician Mohsen Rezaei offers an explanation of the difficulties: "The Zionist regime and the British do not want the negotiations."

2010 GMT: Economy Watch. Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar has said on television that implementation of the second phase of subsidy cuts has been "factually abandoned" and there is "no general policy for handling the country's problems".

And a story of the effect of inflation --- with the Governor of Tehran Provinces blocking higher fares, 17,000 taxi drivers face unemployment because of rising costs of operation.

1940 GMT: Supreme Leader Watch. Ayatollah Khamenei offers his warning to the West in the nuclear talks: "Defiance, arrogance, hubris, and baseless expectations against the Iranian nation lead nowhere."

Addressing a group of Iranian officials and Islamic envoys and representatives in Tehran, the Supreme Leader said:

In the past 33 years, our wise nation and our dear country have been subjected to non-stop conspiracies of all the world powers which tried to, if possible, prevent Iran which is a live example of resistance and progress from becoming a role model in the other nations' eyes.

But the efforts of all the hegemonic powers to push the Iranian nation out of the scene will definitely and surely remain futile again this time.

1640 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Scott Peterson's sources are a bit more upbeat about the discussions:

#Iran nuclear talks in Moscow: EU diplomat says Iran "engaged" on P5+1 proposal; Iran diplomat says afternoon "better than morning one"

— Scott Peterson (@peterson__scott) June 18, 2012

At #Iran nuclear talks: Both sides spin non-negative outcome of "engagement," as Russians now meet Iranians one-on-one to leverage

— Scott Peterson (@peterson__scott) June 18, 2012

Mehdi Sanaei, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee puts out the idea of Beijing as the location for the next round of talks.

1610 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Back from a media break to find updaes on the nuclear talks, featuring the European Union spokesman Michael Mann:

'Tough and intense' engagement today, EU's Mann said, Iranians 'addressed'our proposal, but brought up past grievances. 1/2

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) June 18, 2012

Parties 'reflecting overnight,' will reconvene in plenary noon tomorrow, EU's Mann said. Implied most reflecting should be done by #Iran 2/2

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) June 18, 2012

Iran nuclear talks in Moscow:EU spokesman Mann: "Iran engaged in detail on our proposal but not in a way we would like them to"

— Julian Borger (@julianborger) June 18, 2012

Iranian State media puts out the simple line that Iran's plan must be the basis for further talks: "At the end of the first day of fresh negotiations between Iran and the six major world powers (P5+1) in Moscow, Deputy Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Bagheri urges both sides to take five steps to push talks forward."

Bagheri pushed the message at his press conference, "[European Union representative and 5+1 lead negotiator Catherine] Ashton asked [Iran negotiator Saeed] Jalili for time to think about Iran's offer over night."

1315 GMT: Oil Watch. China International United Petroleum & Chemical (Unipec), the trading unit of the China's biggest oil refiner, has restored monthly crude imports from Iran to the levels of 2011.

An official said shipments averaged 270,000 to 280,000 barrels a day in April and May after falling up to 40% in the first quarter of the year. Total purchases from Iran will be about 20% less than last year because of that drop.

Total deliveries from Iran rebounded to 390,000 barrels a day in April from 254,000 in March, ostensibly because of a resolution of a payments dispute. China bought an average of 557,413 barrels a day from Iran in 2011.

1215 GMT: Nuclear Watch. The two sides are now in an afternoon plenary session after this morning's "tense and tough atmosphere", in the words of a Western diplomat.

One additional note --- Iran’s lead negotiator, Saeed Jalili has accepted a meeting tonight with the head of Russia’s national security council, Nikolai Patrushev, at 6 p.m., after the afternoon session.

1115 GMT: Labour Front. HRANA reports 500 drivers of Tehran's biggest cement factory are continuing their strike for better wages.

1105 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Back from an academic break to find that the first session in the Moscow talks does not appear to have gone well:

Russian dep fm said this in response to my asking how talks had gone this morning, in other words, he didn't answer. Signals not good

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) June 18, 2012

#Iran diplomat close to talks after first session in Moscow: Talks "not good at all" and not having a "balanced conversation"

— Scott Peterson (@peterson__scott) June 18, 2012

Neither side in #Moscow budging. EU says no talk of sanctions relief. #Iran states 5 points in greater detail but no change in substance

— Julian Borger (@julianborger) June 18, 2012

#Iranian diplomats in Moscow say "critical" session in afternoon, where their top priority is a recognition to enrich uranium.

— Scott Peterson (@peterson__scott) June 18, 2012

0850 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Scott Peterson of the Christian Science Monitor brings signals from Moscow that uphold our pessimism about today's nuclear discussions:

At #Iran talks w/ #P5+1: European diplomat says 'what was on the table in Baghdad' is the same in Moscow...which Iran rejected then

— Scott Peterson (@peterson__scott) June 18, 2012

Peterson then sets out the Iranian view and approach:

#Iranian diplomats in Moscow say 3-points in first session 1) Complain that lack of deputy meeting will "damage" prospects of #P5+1 talks

— Scott Peterson (@peterson__scott) June 18, 2012

#Iranian diplomats to present to #P5+1: 2) detailed reply to Western proposal in Baghdad, & 3) will explain its own 5-point proposal

— Scott Peterson (@peterson__scott) June 18, 2012

#Iranian diplomat at Moscow talks: Chance of progress now w/ #P5+1 is "minimal"--though "maybe" it will change by afternoon.

— Scott Peterson (@peterson__scott) June 18, 2012

0540 GMT: The delegations of Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) are about to open their third round of formal talks on Tehran's nuclear programme.

The signs of any advance at the Moscow talks are dim. The last round in late May in Baghdad almost broke down, with hours spent just to get the declaration of another set of discussions, and the intervening period has been marked by Iran's denunciation of the European Union for refusing preparatory talks and the US/European response that the Islamic Republic has not been serious about discussions on the fundamental issues.

In numerous previews of today's encounter, that spin from American and European diplomats has continued. The assurance, "We are very much determined to pursue this process as long there is momentum to pursue, and as long as there is commitment (from Iran) to pursue the nuclear issue in substance," is followed by the emphasis, "But there is a time limit also ... We will have to say 'no' to talks for talks' sake."

That line has been developed with 1) the Iranians never seriously considered the Western offer in Baghdad --- "[lead Iranian negotiator Saeed] Jalili did not even give the proposal a passing glance when it was handed over"; and 2) the Iranians have to engage with that offer today.

All of this evades the reality that the Iranian delegation not only noted the proposal --- which asks Tehran to give up enrichment of 20% percent uranium, with no assurance that Iran can enrich to any level, in return for the token measure of parts for the Islamic Republic's aircraft --- with a clear answer in Baghdad and afterwards: This Sucks.

John Limbert, a former US diplomat with specialist expertise on Iran, summarises, "We're talking about one thing, all these legal and technical issues; and the Iranians are talking about their place in the world, their rights, their sovereignty. We just talk past each other. And both sides come away saying, 'They are not listening to us.'"

Barring a surprise, that play will be acted out once more today and tomorrow. The most that can be expected is yet another last-minute attempt to agree another place and time for negotiations.

This time, however, there is a difference. Before that fourth round occurs, the next step in the main Western approach to Iran --- pressure the Islamic Republic into concessions --- will not just be threatened but will be taken. On 1 July, the European Union will cut off imports of Iranian oil.