The Latest from Iran (8 June): Preparing for the Fallout

See also Iran Analysis: US Officials on Nuke Talks "We Have A Cunning Plan" (Not Really.)
The Latest from Iran (7 June): Nuclear Talks Fallout

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1705 GMT: Nuclear Watch. The International Atomic Energy Agency has said that no progress was made in "disappointing" talks with Iranian officials today at at IAEA headquarters in Vienna.

Herman Nackaerts, the IAEA's global head of inspections, said no further talks had been set.

1642 GMT: Loyalty Watch. Ali Saeedi, Ayatollah Khamenei's representative to the Revolutionary Guards, has said that the Islamic Republic's leadership is exercised on the three levels of prophets, Imams, and velayat-e faqih, the system in which the Supreme Leader's rule is paramount, that are equivalent.

Saeedi continued that obeying velayat-e faqih is required (vajeb) and that religious rule has no value without the Supreme Leader.

1633 GMT: Poster of the Day. Opposition activists anticipate the third anniversary of the disputed 2009 Presidential election, "Our Green Patience is Not a Sign of Silence --- We Will Become Green Again".

The Coordination Council of Green Path of Hope has called for silent protests next Thursday (25 Khordad), marking the annivesary of the mass protests against the outcome of the vote.

1333 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani has told the audience today that US-led sanctions have been a blessing for the Islamic Republic, “They (the West) thought that these sanctions would scare the Iranian nation, but in practice they infuriated the Iranian nation to resist them and not retreat"

Emami Kashani added that the West would fear Iran even if it had no weapons: “It was Islam that gave Iran national glory, authority and helped the country achieve independence.”

1259 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Shipping reports from India indicate that Indian companies have reduced their purchases of Iranian oil by 38% compared with the same period last year.

Meanwhile, Iran's plan to bet around sanctions by accepting part-payment of Indian agricultural products, such as rice and wheat, for its oil has run into problems.

The hindrance is the tax treatment in the Indian federal budget. With the Finance Ministry yet to set out the new tax regime for such transactions, state-run Indian oil companies have held back from transferring rupee funds into local bank accounts against crude oil imports from Iran.

After lengthy talks, Tehran agreed in March to 45% payment in Indian rupees for its oil. With the rupees to be used for import of agricultural commodities and other items, businessmen on both sides have signed deals for the shipment of commodities such as rice, wheat, soymeal, and pharmaceutical products. These deals have all been delayed as Indian oil companies wait for assurances from the government that they will not be taxed on the money deposited into rupee accounts. Industry estimates put the value of such deals around $3 billion.

An Indian exporter said goods worth $500-$600 million would be shipped immediately once the payment issue has been resolved. "Out of this, 65%-70% is agricultural products and the rest is pharmaceuticals," he said.

1250 GMT: Nuclear Watch. China's Xinhua news agency gives the soundbite from today's meeting between Chinese President Hu Jintao and President Ahmadinejad --- Hu said, "China hopes Iran can take a flexible and pragmatic approach, have serious talks with all the six related nations and enhance dialogue and cooperation with the IAEA to ensure tensions are eased."

That reinforces the line, put out by the Chinese Foreign Ministry all week, that Beijing does not want the Islamic Republic to walk away from the negotiating table and that China is opposed to an Iran with nuclear weapons.

1015 GMT: Nuclear Watch. We are still waiting for signals from today's talks in Vienna between Iranian officials and the International Atomic Energy Agency on a protocol for inspections of Tehran's nuclear facilities.

0712 GMT: Doomsayer of the Day. Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of Kayhan is prepared to consign the nuclear talks to the dustbin: "The Vienna meeting [with the International Atomic Energy Agency] was a well, Moscow [with the 5+1 Powers] will be a pit."

Shariatmadari said that fulfilling the "demands" of IAEA head Yukiya Amano "will take 200 years".

0710 GMT: Clerical Intervention. Grand Ayatollah Javadi Amoli has cautioned, "One cannot calm down unemployed youths with good advice. One day we wil feel the whip of weak management of the country."

0510 GMT: Yesterday we began with the evaluation that the nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, Germany, France, China, and Russia) were nearing breakdown and that the Islamic Republic's officials were preparing for the fallout, at home and abroad.

This morning there are some ritual signals from the West's negotiators that all is still fine for the formal meeting in Moscow on 18 -19 June, despite Iran's real or feigned frustration and anger at the refusal of preparatory talks --- the European Union's Helga Schmid said, ""We would feel very encouraged if Iran were ready ... to enter into these discussions" --- but that is not reflected in Tehran.

Instead, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani put out his call to get ready for the consequences. He said there must be unity in the Majlis, as "some want to create unrest among the people". Like other officials this week, including the Supreme Leader's representatives, he tried to ensure blame for the fallout was put on the US and its allies, as the "enemy has targeted the economy".

Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani was also putting down markers on Thursday, as "pressures on the Islamic Republic do not allow for a win-win situation". He made certain that he explained that the Expediency Council, which he chairs, "cannot solve all problems".

Press TV offers a bit of balance in its lead Iran story, "Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that Iran is serious about engaging in a 'stable' process of negotiation to resolve the issues concerning its nuclear energy program."

For now, however, like most in the Islamic Republic's hierarchy, I am looking to a future beyond the suspension of the nuclear talks, whether that comes before, during, or after the formalities in Moscow. Only a significant signal from the "West" of a willingness to accept an Iranian right to uranium enrichment, with a promise to ease sanctions as a deal is discussed, will avoid that.