Syria Live Coverage: Foreign Governments Pledge Support for Opposition --- But How Much?

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2136 GMT: Regime Retakes Iraq Border Crossing. According to Now Lebanon, the Syrian military has retaken an Iraqi border crossing at Yaarubiyeh a day after it fell to Jabhat al Nusra.

Al Arabiya, known for its occasional sensationalism, says that there's an even more interesting story - that Iraqi forces loyal to Prime Minister Nouri Al-Malaki joined the Assad troops in attacking "the Free Syrian Army" on the border:

For the first time, Iraqi forces opened fire on Syria shelling the positions of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) days after Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki warned that a victory of the Syrian opposition would spread chaos in the region.

Al Arabiya correspondent near the Syrian-Iraqi border reported that Iraqi snipers took up positions on buildings near the Rebiya crossing while others forces shelled the positions of the Free Syrian Army.

We haven't independently confirmed either report, and we'd be more comfortable if we had additional information before believing the Al Arabiya headline.

2129 GMT: Airstrike in Damascus. Every day there are airstrikes, so maybe videos like this are old news, but they never stop shocking us. This video shows a jet fighter releasing a bomb and then firing flares as it climbs. It was reportedly taken today over eastern Damascus, in the Irbin suburb:

2058 GMT: How the Battle for Aleppo Ends. Earlier we were discussing the major remaining bases in Aleppo, and how the rebels were already starting to fire artillery at those bases. In particular, we were discussing the Artillery Academy (map) and the artillery base just southeast of that. These are major Assad bases, hardened targets with thousands of soldiers that have led nearly every other regime offensive in the city. The guns stationed here are legendary - in fact, the first time they fired on opposition positions last June was the preamble to the fight that eventually crippled Syria's largest city (read about that on the Columbia Journalism Review).

These bases are also increasingly isolated, and in the crosshairs of the Free Syrian Army. In fact, the leader of the Syrian Supreme Military Council, General Salim Idriss, believes that the final battle for Aleppo will be fought here - and relatively soon:

It is not just the 2,000 or so well-armed soldiers already holed up there, inside the square-kilometer campus on Aleppo’s eastern outskirts. Nor is it the reinforced concrete bunkers built under every building to withstand an Israeli air raid.

The toughest part for him is his fondness for both the officers in charge and the campus itself. When he defected in July 2012, General Idris, now chief of staff of the rebel forces, was a brigadier in the Syrian Army and dean of the academy after teaching there for 20 years.

“I cannot imagine that we will attack the academy,” General Idris said in a wide-ranging interview in a hotel cafe. “All the officers inside the academy are my colleagues. I don’t want to fight against them; I don’t want to see them killed or injured. I hope they leave before we attack.”

2006 GMT: Jihadists with New Weapons. David Enders reports that some of these foreign weapons recently given to the rebels have made it to the hands of "Jihadists."

But the [secular Free syrian Army "Victory Brigade"] doesn’t fight alone, and a video that another rebel group, the Islamist Ahrar al Sham, posted to YouTube this month showed fighters using the same kinds of weapons in an assault that was coordinated with the Victory Brigade.

“Of course they share their weapons with us,” said Ali Ankir, a spokesman for Ahrar al Sham. “We fight together.”

Indeed, Victory closely coordinated its offensive in December to seize the town of Kfar Nbouda from forces loyal to President Bashar Assad not just with Sham, but also with fighters from the Nusra Front, which the State Department has designated a terrorist organization aligned with al Qaida in Iraq. Nusra and Sham share the goal of establishing an Islamist state in a post-Assad Syria, and unlike Victory they don’t recognize the authority of the Hama military council.

The Blogger Brown Moses has also posted a collection of videos showing Ahrar al Sham with those weapons.

As we posted in mid-February, the arming of the rebels was an effort coordinated under the "Free Damascenes Movement," a reorganization of Islamists and Free Syrian Army units under the control of the Syrian Revolutionary Military Council in Daraa. The SMC is under the leadership of Salim Idriss, and has a well established leadership structure. The SMC is also accountable and in close coordination with the National Coalition and groups like the Local Coordination Committees.

In other words, perhaps the headline is misleading. It isn't just significant that Islamists are getting weapons, it's significant that despite their more radical ideologies, they have decided to follow the lead of the larger united groups, and those groups have found them trustworthy enough to supply them with weapons.

Some of the analysis by Western analysts is lacking in specificity of terminology. Whoever was supplying these weapons - Saudi Arabia, likely with the knowledge of the US - almost certainly knew they were supplying the Free Damascenes Movement, and they knew which groups were in that organization. They also knew that these groups were forming as a direct response to the Tawid Brigade in Aleppo and Jabhat al Nusra, the latter being the only group the US has placed on the terrorism list. Ahrar al Sham may be Islamist, or Jihadis, but they've specifically and deliberately chosen not to associate with the Al Qaeda elements thus far.

1934 GMT: Why Croatia? Croatia was a logical choice for Saudi Arabia, or any other countries interested in arming the rebels. For starters, any weapons would need ammunition and possibly batteries and spare parts, and this would give the suppliers tight control in the long-term over who could use these weapons. But Croatia is also not yet a member of the European Union - it's only an observer state - and so it is not bound by the arms embargo.

Or at least it wasn't until February 22nd. According to Bruxelles2, Croatia will be held to the EU's decisions on February 22 if it wants to move ahead with its membership. In other words, it appears than many shipments of Croatian weapons have already been sent to Syria, others may be on their way, and now, once again, there will be a gap in the arms until the EU changes its rules. And if you believe our last report below, the gap won;t be very long.

1918 GMT: US & Europe to Supply Weapons Soon? According to several prominent members of the Syrian National Coalition, including the NC's London representative, Walid Saffour, the US and Europe is expected to reverse course and send weapons to the rebels at the groups next meeting. Furthermore, steps may already be underway to get the rebels ammunition:

"This would be for the ammunition we require, the quality weapons we need to deter the Syrian regime from using aeroplanes and Scud missiles to bomb villages and bakeries," Saffour said. "We on the ground are advancing steadily but we are suffering from a lack of ammunition. We expect that to change at the next Friends of Syria meeting in Istanbul."

Another opposition figure involved in supplying the rebels said there had been a noticeable relaxation in recent days of the strict restrictions the US and Turkey had put on arms flows over the Turkish border. He claimed a Syrian army helicopter and a Mig warplane had been shot down in the past two days, for the first time by imported missiles.

"These were not weapons that had been captured from Syrian army bases as before. These were released from the Turkish warehouses. These are weapons the opposition had purchased previously but had not been allowed to take across the border," the opposition source said.

1742 GMT: Massive Fire in Aleppo. We're not exactly sure what caused it, but a massive fire is reported over southwestern Aleppo. We believe that what's burning may be this fuel depot (map) but we're not exactly sure:

The fighting in areas near here have been very intense for days, but what's more interesting to us is that just west of here are several large military bases that have been the target of rebel artillery in the last two weeks.

1722 GMT: More "Scuds" Reportedly Launched. There have been many reports today that "Scud missiles," a catch-all phrase for ballistic or longer-range rockets (they're not all Scuds), have been fired from the 155th base, north of Damascus (map). Now, the LCC posts this video which it says shows the smoke trails of one of the rockets as it traveled north.

1703 GMT: Kidnappings on the Rise. Tom Peter reports in the Christian Science Monitor that kidnappings are on the rise as "criminal opportunism" has taken over where neither the government nor the rebels have control or where civil society has been destabilized. The problem is particularly virulent in northern Idlib province:

Now, throughout much of northwestern Syria, particularly Idlib province, Syrians say they’re dealing with a kidnapping epidemic. In some of the worst affected areas, residents report people going missing daily.

Throughout Idlib province, locals say there has been a dramatic spike in the number of kidnappings in recent months. Many residents say the fear of abduction now keeps them from leaving their neighborhoods. Though most outside attention is focused on the abduction of foreigners like American reporter James Foley, who has been missing since November, the problem is far more common and pervasive for Syrians.

The kidnapping threat has brought daily life to a standstill in many areas.

1538 GMT: US Training Rebels in Jordan. EA has been hearing the rumors for months that the US and its allies have been training rebel fighters for many months in Jordan. In fact, we've had several other journalists tell us off the record that they were working this story but didn't have enough to publish. Now, The Times has published an article that says just that:

The move is the most far-reaching US involvement yet in the Syrian crisis and reflects broader Western concerns that Islamic militants such as Jabhat al-Nusra are making the running in the battle against the regime.

According to intelligence officers and diplomats in the region, rebel fighters are being offered training ranging from the use of light arms to more complicated manoeuvres, such as how to secure chemical-weapons facilities.

Hat tip to Tom Peter for tweeting the link.

This also links well with our own analysis - that Washington has played a part in the arming of the Syrian rebels, and that this was part of an effort to increase pressure on the regime in order to push Assad to the negotiating table.

It also matches the patterns we've been reporting for a month - that it's not just new weapons, but also new organization, new tactics, and a revamped strategy.

1527 GMT: Syrian SCUD hits Iraq. According to Reuters, a Scud missile, fired from Syria, has hit Iraq:

A Scud missile fired from Syrian territory landed near a village in Iraq's Nineveh province on Friday, causing no damage but terrifying its inhabitants who fled, the mayor said, identifying the rocket as Russian-made.

The conflict in neigbouring Syria has previously spilled over the border into Iraq. In September, a five-year-old girl was killed when three rockets struck a border town in the al Qaim area.

"A Russian-made Scud landed near the village of Yoush Tapa, 3 km from the Iraqi-Syrian border between Telafar and Baaj," said Abdul Aal Abbas, the mayor of Telafar.

We have no information on where this Scud may have come from yet, but it is worth noting that yesterday we did report that the rebels have reportedly captured a Scud (and there's video), though some have suggested that it is unlikely they could get it to work without significant technical expertise and the right chemical fuels.

1505 GMT: One Nation - Under One Banner. According to Syria Deeply, today is the 717th day of the Syrian uprising, which means this has been going on for more than 102 weeks. Every Friday since then, there have been widespread anti-Assad protests across Syria, and every Friday's protests have a theme, the winner of a mini-election held of Facebook. This week's theme roughly translates to "One Nation, Under One Banner." It signifies many things - that Syria wants to be a democracy, not a sectarian society, and that it will not allow for a segmenting of the country as some have suggested, with a government in exile on the coast. It may also signify, at least to some, that the division that many in the west would like to make between moderates who are the "good guys" and Islamists who are "the other" is false - after Assad is gone everyone will have to live together in one country, under one government.

This protest in particular caught our eyes. It's fairly large, and very energetic, but this video was also reportedly taken in the Bab Qbil district of Hama, right in the center of the city (map):

1445 GMT: Passports. Yesterday we reported that one of the primary requests of the opposition was a renewal of expired passports, and that according to several source the Syrian regime had granted this request. The Guardian, however, suggests that this promise has not yet been fully realized, and almost anyone with any attachment to the opposition will find it hard to get their permit renewed:

He pointed out the ministry of interior has applied three stringent conditions before passports can be renewed: you have to be at least 30 years old; you must have completed military service - or been given a an exemption; and you have to have been give a full six-year passport in the first place.

This last condition means that those who have been extending their passports for two years to study abroad, will not be allowed to apply.

And under a Catch-22 style dilemma exiles can only get the paperwork to prove exemptions from military service in Syria, but can’t get there without a passport, Ahmad said.

1410 GMT: Arming the Rebels. Dan Murphy, of the Christian Science Monitor, asks a similar question to the one we were asking yesterday - Will limited US aid to Syria rebels hasten the end of war, or prolong it?. Citing the news out of the Rome conference, and the evidence that has surfaced about Saudi Arabia arming the rebels, Murphy suggests that a highly-improbable political settlement does appear to be the goal of the direct aid to the rebels - a "paradox" as Syrian state media SANA called it yesterday:

So this does not appear to be a situation where either side is in a mood for the compromises that would be required for a negotiated settlement.

But that appears to be what the US is hoping for by making the rebels stronger, but not too strong. Secretary of State John Kerry said today in Rome the US would supply "non-lethal" aid – food, medicine, and possibly things like communications equipment – directly to the Free Syrian Army and a further $60 million to the political wing of the uprising.

Murphy suggests that this approach may not work, and as such the arming may just make matters worse because it will not be enough to bring a quick end to this conflict:

The half-hearted backing will likely lead to an opposition that is harder to defeat, but still lacking the strength to win the war.

James Miller takes over today's live coverage. Thanks to Scott Lucas for getting us to the afternoon.

1228 GMT: Protest. Today's demonstration in Kafranbel in Idlib Province challenges the outcome of the Friends of Syria conference, "We asked for military intervention to save us, but you intervened...to save your interests":

A protest in the Damascus suburb of Mleiha:

1222 GMT:Trying to Govern. David Kirkpatrick of The New York Times posts a first-hand account from a village in northeastern Syria:

Until about three weeks ago, Tilalyan’s roughly 3,800 residents had bread at most twice a week, and its appearance set off a fierce melee among hundreds of families. There was no consistent supply of electricity or water, to say nothing of medicine or heating fuel....

With Syria’s two-year-old civil war showing signs of stalemate, scores of new local councils in rebel-held towns like Tilalyan are not only fighting deprivation but trying to set up courts, police forces and social services....

They are struggling to outlast [President] Assad in what is increasingly a war of attrition. But civilian leaders say the councils are also trying to pry power from the armed rebel brigades that are already staking out control of resources and territories in the vacuum left by the government’s retreat. Tilalyan’s council illustrates the challenge: it has been forced to depend entirely on the patronage of either the Western-sponsored opposition-in-exile or competing armed factions, including hard-line Islamists.

Three months after it was formed, though, the council can claim two achievements: four hours a day of electricity and a daily ration of two pieces of flatbread for each adult and child. That in turn has brought credibility and legitimacy, even in the eyes of skeptical town elders.

1215 GMT:Mass Killing? The opposition Syrian National Coalition claim regime forces have executed 72 people and burned their bodies in Malkiyeh village, near Aleppo.

The Coaliition said at least 49 of the bodies had been identified after the killings carried out on Monday.

The Aleppo Press Centre claimed the elderly, women, and at least seven children were among the slain. It said the other 23 victims "have not been identified because their bodies were too badly burnt".

1151 GMT:The International Community and the Opposition. The Russian Foreign Ministry has condemned the general pledge of support by the Friends of Syria for the opposition and insurgency: "Decisions taken in Rome, as well as declarations voiced there, in letter and spirit directly encourage extremists to (seek) the seizure of power by force."

1051 GMT:Refugees. According to the UN’s refugee agency, the number of Syrian refugees across the Middle East and North Africa is rapidly approaching one million.

The agency noted that in April 2012 there were only 33,000 registered refugees, while the number today is approximately 940,000 as around 60,000 Syrians leave the country each week.

0830 GMT: Casualties. The Local Coordination Committees claim 98 people were killed on Friday, including 35 in Damascus and its suburbs and 33 in Aleppo Province.

0610 GMT: The International Front. After hesitations and more than a little conflict over the past week, the Friends of Syria meeting convened in Rome on Thursday, condemning President Assad's rule and backing the opposition:

The regime must immediately stop the indiscriminate bombardment against populated areas which are crimes against humanity and cannot remain unpunished.

The ministers pledged more political and material support to the [Syrian National] Coalition as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people and to get more concrete assistance [into] Syria.

The statement left a series of questions, however. For example, it did not specify what kind of support would be supplied and how quickly it would emerge --- on a day when United Nations officials expressed concern that not a penny of $1.5 billion pledged last month by foreign countries had been sent for humanitarian aid.

Nor was there any clarity about the level of assistance for the insurgency. The US, for the first time, publicly declared "non-lethal" assistance to opposition fighters, with $60 million for items such as food and medicine, but the bigger issue --- the amount of weapons that the US and partners such as Saudi Arabia are already arranging for the insurgents --- was not mentioned.

The statement also deplored "the unabated arms supply to the regime by third countries".

Speaking after talks with the Syrian opposition and mainly European and Arab countries supporting them, John Kerry, the US secretary of state, said his country would provide Syrian opposition with $60m in new aid and work with rebel fighters.

The US plans for the first time to provide non-lethal aid, including food rations and medical supplies, to opposition fighters battling the Syrian government and it will more than double aid to the civilian opposition, the US secretary of state said at a joint press conference with Syria Opposition leaders.

Bashar al-Assad lost his legitimacy long ago, and has lost his power, Kerry said.

The meeting came ahead of an important meeting of the Syrian National Coalition on Saturday in Istanbul, Turkey where the umbrella opposition group is to elect a prime minister and government to run parts of Syria seized from Assad's control.

The opposition - which initially pledged a boycott - participated in the 11-nation meeting on Thursday after the US and Britain promised specific offers of help.

In Paris, as part of a European tour on Wednesday, Kerry made it clear Washington was ready to step up its support for the opposition.