Iran Analysis: Which Way Forward for US Policy?

Marc Lynch, one of the leading analysts of US foreign policy on the Middle East and Iran, posts this challenging piece in Foreign Policy.

I appreciate Lynch's attempt to find an "off-ramp" to get out of confrontation with Tehran, but I can't help feeling, after reading and re-reading, that he is locked into the dilemma that "we have to do something" to head off those pressing for military action against Iran. Unfortunately, because Lynch can't find a "something" that will work, he winds up back at the default position --- with a shrug of his shoulders --- of intensified conflict and a probable strike on Iran.

The alternative? Instead of "do something", a bit of patience might be in order, as well as a recognition that internal developments in Iran --- while likely to change the situation significantly --- take time. So, instead of "doing something" directed at Tehran, perhaps "doing something" directed at the US policymakers and chattering classes might be advisable: don't give in to an inevitability that talk of military action means military action; instead, head it off and knock it back.

What happens in Iran should be led by Iranians, not by Washington. And it certainly should not be directed by or be dependent on the nuclear-military setting: 

This morning, at a small meeting with various Washington-based analysts and European diplomats, I was asked to speculate on the future of Iran policy.  While it's of course impossible to predict, I don't expect to see military action by the U.S. or by Israel.  Nor do I expect to see any serious progress towards a political bargain, either a narrow one about the Iranian nuclear program nor an expansive one about Iran's place in the Middle East.  Nor do I expect Iran to test a nuclear weapon.

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Update on Turkey's Basketball Honour and Taxes: A Judge Challenges the Prime Minister

After Turkey's appearance this week in the final of the 2010 World Basketball Championship, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan thanked the team with a 28 million TL ($18.7 million) cheque. (See earlier feature on EA.)

One person is not feeling so generous, however. Judge Sedat Vural has submitted his complaint letter to Ankara's 15th administrative court, calling for the suspension and cancellation of the cheque. Vural claims it violates the Constitution's equality principle. 

Turkey's Constitutional Referendum: Follow-Up Analyses --- Victory or Diversion?

Yesterday we featured an analysis by Dr Basak Alpan of Sunday's referendum in Turkey, in which 58% of voters approved 26 amendments to the 1982 Constitution. Alpan was pessimistic about the significance of the "Yes" vote: "It is not yet clear how the social forces of the Turkish political landscape will react to the new constitution but it is crystal-clear that neither the ‘yes’ side nor the ‘no’ side won at yesterday’s referendum. All of us --- except for the Executive and the business world, with its obsession with "stability" --- lost."

Some other assessments of the vote and the apparent victory of the ruling Justice and Development Party:

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US War on Terror: Who Are the Remaining Prisoners in Guantanamo? (Worthington)

Andy Worthington writes in the first of an eight-part series profiling the 176 detainees still at Guantanamo Bay:

The 20 prisoners listed below were the first group of prisoners seized crossing from Afghanistan to Pakistan in December 2001. They have been identified as the “Dirty Thirty,” because of allegations that they served as bodyguards for Osama bin Laden, although these allegations have long been challenged by the prisoners and their attorneys, and by those who have studied the stories in detail, for three reasons: firstly, because the majority of the men had been in Afghanistan for such a short amount of time that it is inconceivable that they would have been trusted with such an important role; secondly, because one source of the allegations is Mohammed al-Qahtani, who was tortured at Guantánamo, and who later withdrew his false allegations; and thirdly, because two other sources of the allegations are Sharqwi Abdu Ali al-Hajj and Sanad Yislam Ali al-Kazimi, whose false confessions were recently exposed in a US court, in the habeas corpus petition of Uthman Abdul Rahim Mohammed Uthman.

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Iran Video: Ahmadinejad with NBC News on "Muslims", "Zionists", & Obama (15 September)

President Ahmadinejad is off to the United Nations for his annual presentation to the General Assembly, so that means another round of interviews with US television networks.

It's a low-risk strategy for Ahmadinejad, as the American interviewers do not usually bring more than two-dimensional questions, and this encounter with NBC News' Andrea Mitchell was no different. Rather than pushing the President on Iran's internal matters, Mitchell settled for a snapshot of the case of the three US hikers --- Ahmadinejad had released Sarah Shourd on "compassionate grounds" but was defiant over the continued imprisonment of Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal --- and got into a tangential discussion on the proposed Islamic cultural centre in New York and a general overview of President Obama and US politics. Ahmadinejad countered with assertions of Muslim goodwill (and thus his own) --- "Muslims do not hate Americans" --- while saying that a "Zionist minority" was limiting the President's options on US-Iranian relations.

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The Latest from Iran (16 September): Suspending Damocles' Sword

2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. University student Mohammad Reza Valian, detained after the Ashura protests last December --- one of the charges against him was "throwing stones" --- has been released. 

2015 GMT: Stopping the Attorneys. Radio Farda follows up on the story, reported on EA earlier this week, that the husband and lawyer detained human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh have been threatened with arrest if they spread information about her case.

Sotoudeh's husband, Reza Khandan, said he and attorney Nasim Ghanavi had been warned by the Ministry of Intelligence: "They told Ms. Ghanavi that a case has been filed against her and me for giving interviews about my wife's arrest."

Sotoudeh was detained on 4 September on accusations of "collusion against national security" and "spreading propaganda against the Islamic Republic". Days earlier, she had spoken about a raid on her office, claiming that Iranian authorities were trying to stop her representing clients like activist Shiva Nazar Ahari.

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US Elections: And Now Delaware Becomes Very, Very Important

EA Worldview's US Politics correspondent, Lee Haddigan, writes:

Hours after the polls closed across Delaware in the Republican primary for the US Senate, the campaign of the victorious Christine O’Donnell --- favourite of the Tea Party and "insurgent" Republicans --- announced they had reached their fundraising target of $750,000 and were aiming for $1 million. This was not a target for the campaign to November's general election, but only for the day after the primary.

Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, after a much criticized delay, announced they would be helping O’Donnell in her general election bid, despite the animosity in the primary with "establishment" candidate Mike Castle. And Wednesday evening the Tea Party Express sent out an email requesting donations to O’Donnell’s campaign.

So here is my last word on Delaware until late October when the new registration figures come out: if I am offered odds of 2-1 or higher on O’Donnell, I'm taking them.

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Egypt: Politics, Land Sales, and Corruption (Iskander)

Membership in the ruling National Democratic Party brings business benefits and virtual immunity from punishment. The NDP has allowed this cronyism to prevail among some of Egypt’s top business figures, as the government focuses on implementing its privatisation agenda at any cost. While investigations, trials, and even convictions are allowed to go ahead to give the appearance of action by the state, these rarely achieve permanent results. This indicates why, despite the court issuing its “final” ruling in the case of the sale of land to TMG, the company announced on Wednesday that it will appeal the decision again.

Yet, if the NDP has been able to absorb these corruption scandals so far, its ability to do so is becoming impeded by uncertainties over the potential transition of power from President Mubarak to his son Gamal and the rising level of general discontent on the Egyptian street. Could the Mustafa case be the case that sets a new direction in Egyptian law and politics?

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Israel-Palestine Video: Hillary Clinton's Meeting With Israeli President Peres (15 September)

CLINTON: There will always be obstacles and setbacks, it is a given. It is always easier to defer or criticise top decisions than to make them. it is always easier to sit on the sidelines than to roll up your sleeves. It is always easier to doubt than to trust. President Peres has never been one to sit on sidelines and thankfully we know Prime minister Netanyahu, a leader who understands how important it is to move forward, as he has said we also have a Palestinian President who shares that determination.

I have sat with these two men individually and together. I have listened to them, talked candidly and forcefully. They are getting down to business. They have begun to grapple with the core issues that can only be resolved through face to face negotiations. I believe they are serious about reaching an agreement that results in two states living side by side in peace and security. That outcome is not only in the interest of both Israelis and Palestinians, it is in the interest of United States and people everywhere. This is the time and these are the leaders....

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Israel-Palestine Analysis: How Long Can Ramallah Demand a Freeze on Settlements?

At the end of the second round of direct Israel-Palestine talks, we have been bombarded with statements from various actors.

Beyond the rather anodyne declarations is this looming date: on 26 September, Israel's 10-month moratorium on construction in the West Bank expires.

It is unlikely, however, that Damocles' sword will be held over West Jerusalem. Instead, as we pass 26 September without resolution, the Palestinians are likely to face this choice: compromise on the settlements or be labelled as "rejectionists", if not by Obama's representatives then by the Israelis with whom they are supposed to find an agreement.

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