Iran Special: Sarah Shourd and Ahmadinejad's Gamble for Power (Gary Sick)

Iran has had bitter internal disputes ever since the revolution. What is different this time is that it has gone public. The release of Sarah Shourd, as welcome as it is, is only a symptom of a much larger process: the attempt by Ahmadinejad to make the presidency into an indispensable and ultimately independent policy-making center. In that contest, he has allied himself with the Revolutionary Guards, arguably the real power behind the sanctified throne in Iran, rather than the Supreme Leader.

This is not good news for the United States in its on-again off-again efforts to engage with Iran. Ahmadinejad has given some evidence of wanting to forge an opening to the United States, as have presidents before him. But Ahmadinejad, like his predecessors, is hostage to a hostile internal environment that fears a deal with America could interfere with the cozy military-industrial-political consortium involving not only the Supreme Leader but also his protectors and economic beneficiaries in the Revolutionary Guards.

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Iran Urgent: US Hiker Sarah Shourd Released ---- Her Statement

UPDATE 1930 GMT: A CNN journalist claims, "Senior US source says Oman paid Iran bail for US hiker Sarah Shourd. Shourd flew from Iran to Oman, who has been working issue for some time."

UPDATE 1800 GMT: Before she flew out of Tehran's Mehrabad Airport, Sarah Shourd told Press TV, "I want to really offer my thanks to everyone in the world, all of the governments, all of the people, that have been involved, and especially, particularly want to address President Ahmadinejad and all of the Iranian officials, the religious leaders, and thank them for this humanitarian gesture. I'm grateful and I'm very humbled by this moment."

UPDATE 1630 GMT: The families of the three US hikers who were detained in July 2009 --- Sarah Shourd, Shane Fattal, and Josh Bauer --- have issued a statement:

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Iraq: 30,000 Prisoners Held Without Due Process (Amnesty/Cole)

Juan Cole writes:

Every time there is an election in Iraq, as happened last March 7, the Neoconservatives come out to crow about how great the Iraq War was. Their implicit argument is that Iraq was a brutal dictatorship, is now a thriving democracy. This argument is typical of their warped ethics, since it maintains that the ends justifies the means, and we are not supposed to bring up the dead, the wounded, the damaged that the Neocons have inflicted on Iraq. Never mind that the elections have not so far produced a viable new government. Never mind that democratic institutions are weak or non-existent. Never mind that widespread abuses are committed against the public by the new state.

Amnesty International reports that the Iraqi government is holding some 30,000 prisoners without charges or due process. In some instances the prisoners have been abused or even tortured. About 10,000 of these prisoners were recently handed over to the Iraqis when the US combat mission in Iraq supposedly ended.

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Iran Analysis: Dead End for Reform --- and Which Way Forward? (Rasoulpour)

Saman Rasoulpour writes in Rooz Online:

How have the events of the past year affected the future of reforms and movements for reform in Iran? This is a question worth asking these days. The protests of the past year, while challenging every aspect of the regime, had one unintended consequence: It exposed significant challenges to the future of reform in Iran. These challenges can be grouped in several categories.

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The Latest from Iran (14 September): Presidential Aide Mortazavi to Stand Trial

2005 GMT: Economy Watch. MP Ahmad Hamidi says wheat growers in Isfahan province, who distributed their harvest 1 1/2 months ago, still have not been paid by the government. 

2000 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Lecturer Ahmad Ghabel has been re-arrested after his recent claims about mass executions in Mashhad Prison.

1955 GMT: To Lose One Diplomat is Unfortunate, To Lose Four.... Hossein Sobhaninia, a pro-Government member of Parliament's National Security Council, has delcared that more caution is needed in the choice of Iran's diplomats as they will most likely be subject to manipulation by foreign intelligence services.

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"Oh, Boy": How 500 Delaware Voters Are Splitting America's Conservatives

Delaware has been thrust reluctantly, after the initial thrill, onto the front page of political news. But when the state returns to obscurity after the Republican primary, at least until next month, there will be injuries from this surprisingly nasty struggle that will not be forgiven or forgotten, inside and outside the state. As Tea Party-backed candidate Christine O’Donnell exclaimed to a reporter on Sunday night, after being informed of a Weekly Standard article attacking her: "Oh, boy."

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New Additions: RSS Feeds and More

One of the most frequently requested features on EA has been RSS feeds for individual blog categories. While this was possible with our old site, the traditional blog set-up didn't make it easy. Our new site, with the introduction of our five niche areas, has changed that. So today we're pleased to say that RSS fans can now not only subscribe to our full feed, but also specific feeds for each of our key sections: EA Afghanistan-Pakistan, EA Iran, EA Middle East & Turkey, EA USA, and EA Global. Links to these feeds along with some more information about RSS are available here or by clicking on the black RSS button at the top of the sidebar on the right.

We're also pleased to announce that the banner you can see at the very top of our site is from our first advertiser, Iran180, a campaign which demands, "a 180 by the Iranian government on their pursuit of nuclear weapons and the treatment of their citizens." Please do pay them a visit.

Afghanistan: Did the International Security Assistance Force Just Back Partition?

 

This morning, a Twitter user plugged the following article in The Daily Telegraph of London, "Nato Urged to Allow Partition of Afghanistan":

Robert Blackwill, who was Condolezza Rice's deputy as National Security Adviser in 2003 to 2004, will use a speech at the International Institute of Strategic Studies think tank in London on Monday to call on President Barack Obama to make drastratic changes in the war's objectives.

The result was that America now had 1,000 soldiers deployed for every one of the estimated 100 al Qaeda operatives now believed to be based in Afghanistan and was hemorraging $100 billion a year on the conflict.

The Latest from Iran (13 September): The Revolving Door of Freedom?

2020 GMT: Latest on US Detainee Sarah Shourd. Masoud Shafiee, the lawyer for detained US citizen Sarah Shourd, says that her family is appealing to Iran's authorities to drop or reduce. the $500,000 bail demanded for her release because of difficulties raising the money.

Shafiee said authorities had given no response to the bail request.

Meanwhile, State Department spokesman Phillip Crowley said, "The United States government does not fund prisoner bail."

White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said the Obama Administration is in close contact with the families of the three detained US hikers --- Shourd, Shane Bauer, and Josh Fattal --- and the Swiss Embassy, which represents American interests in Iran.

"The situation is continuing to develop," Vietor said. "We remain hopeful for a positive outcome."

Shafiee said authorities had given no response to the bail request.

2000 GMT: Diplomat Number Four. The Norwegian paper Dagblodet reports that Farzad Farhangian, the Iranian Press Attache in Belgium, has resigned his post and is now in Oslo seeking asylum.

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Iran Archive: Latest on Detained US Hiker Sarah Shourd (11 September)

UPDATED 1510 GMT: Masoud Shafii, the lawyer for the US detainees Sarah Shourd, Shane Bauer, and Josh Fattal, has said he is upset at the delay in Shourd’s release, declaring that her family’s emotions are “being abused”.

Shafii said, “Put yourself in her mother’s shoes. It’s been more than year and she has no idea why her daughter was arrested and what will happen to her.”

The lawyer continued, “There’s obviously a difference of opinion as to what to do within the government. Legally the prosecutor has the final say in this matter, but I ask you, has anything about their arrests and treatment been legal so far?”

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