Syria Opinion: The Assad Regime Cannot End this Crisis

CNN's Nic Robertson reports from Homs, where French journalist Gilles Jacquier was killed on Wednesday.

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What is beyond dispute is that the Assad regime has lost control of the country. At best, it is no longer capable of defending its citizens, and even its state-sponsored tours by foreign journalists, from attack. At worst, the regime is responsible for planting one of several bombs in the capital, is guilty of killing Gilles Jacquier to frame "terrorists", and is carrying out killings, widespread arrests, torture, and kidnapping campaigns to beat the opposition into submission.

Either way, the government of Syria has failed its people, proving incapable of restoring order. And so far, evidence points to the worst-case scenario more often than it points to the best.

If the Syrian government is incapable of ending this crisis, who is capable, and are they willing to take that responsibility?

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: An Attack in Homs

Gunfire and explosions in Homs as defectors defend the city against the army

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2103 GMT: A large protest in Idlib in Syria tonight:

And a mass rally in Khalidiya in Homs chants to the Arab League Secretary General "Nabil El Araby is a traitor":

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: After the Speech, the Battle

2130 GMT: According to the voice on the video, this was taken in Baba Amr, Homs. It was uploaded today, and claims to show fighters for the Free Syrian Army's Farouq Batallion replacing a regime flag with their own, during what sounds like an intense gunfight:

We are unable to confirm any of these claims at the current time.

2114 GMT: Fuel isn't the only thing that is in short supply in Syria. Due to recent environmental issues, the wheat harvest is down, but the Syrian government appears that it may not be able to import the grain that it plans on using to supplement the shortfall:

Syria's state grains agency, which traditionally purchases soft milling wheat via international tenders, is finding it difficult to secure food at competitive prices, European traders say.

The agency Tuesday said it had rejected all tender offers and made no purchase in an international auction to buy 100,000 metric tons of wheat, citing expensive market prices.

According to the Wall Street Journal, European traders are unwilling to sell grain without adding a risk premium, adding to Syria's inability to secure good pricing.

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Syria Special: To Lighten the Day --- Jokes, Breakdancing, and Assad on Freedom of the Press

It's been a long 10 months for those of us following the crisis in Syria and a far longer 10 months for those going through it. One need go no further than Tuesday's (or any day's) live coverage for the latest reports on dead civilians and on battles between defectors and the regime.

If laughter is the best medicine for this, and EA has three jokes and totally bloodless videos to lift the day.

SIRI AND SYRIA

Fit this under the funny-because-it's-almost true category. As journalists are imprisoned, cartoonists are beaten, and protesters are shot, Samir tries to find out the truth in Syria. As he finds out, there's an app for that...sort of:

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: President Assad Makes a Speech

2111 GMT: We close tonight with a map, assembled by activists, that shows the full extent of protests, strikes, and violence today in Syria.

View Syria - Tuesday 10/01/2012 in a larger map

Videos and updates from around Syria. Towns with reported protests are marked in blue. Towns on strike are marked in yellow. Towns with updates alone are marked in green. Red markers show places which are under attack or where martyrs fell today.

We're continuing to collect information from nighttime clashes in Deir Ez Zor, so stay tuned tomorrow morning for more.

2204 GMT: This video was reportedly taken of a protest in Deir Ez Zor tonight. Since then, we have reports of a pitched battle between defectors and the regular army (see update below). We've also seen two more graphic videos, the first shows a man, apparently dead or gravely injured, in a hospital in Deir Ez Zor. The second appears to show the same man (but it's hard to tell), and he is clearly deceased.

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President Obama will call on the international community to intervene in Syria. He may not be the loudest public voice, but he and his team will be working the diplomatic backchannels in Europe and the Middle East hard. He wants to avoid war in Iran, but not so secretly, he is rooting for the domino theory to hold with the fall of the regime in Tehran. He will sell more arms to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia to pacify their unease with his policies, while preparing a backup plan if there is no movement in the Islamic Republic.

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Syria Special: Observing the Observers --- Evidence of The Abuses in Homs

Residents of Homs show observers the body of a 5-year-old child killed by gunfire

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Looking at the evidence of the last two days, witnessed by the observers on the ground, the situation in Syria is unsustainable. This evidence clearly implicates the Assad regime, but regardless of who is at fault, this situation is clearly a humanitarian disaster. Contrary to earlier statements by Mohamed Ahmed Mustafa al-Dabi, nothing about what we have posted above is "reassuring."

To borrow from the Latin phrase, "who is watching the watchers?" As it turns out, thanks to the citizen journalists, the Arab League will now find it very difficult to create their own narrative without mentioning these scenes.

And as these amateur videos spread through the media, the Arab League is likely to feel more international pressure to finally act to end the crisis in Syria.

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Syria Special: Who is Observing What, and What Will Happen When They Finish?

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I don't need to sugar coat this: there are a lot of people who have no faith in the Arab League mission in Syria. For starters, we already know what they will find. International observers, though limited in both numbers and opportunities to investigate independently, have given us conclusions. According to US Ambassador Robert Ford, or the UN delegation that visited in August, or the few reporters brave enough to smuggle themselves into Syria, President Assad is killing a lot of people and torturing many. And there is only one way to end this mess, with Assad giving up power.

Few of these facts are in question. Much of the counter-narrative provided by the Syrian regime has either been proven false or is a weak defense --- "some individuals are guilty of crimes" --- for the scale of the regime's carnage. If only half the claims of the activists are true, then the number of people who have died from violence in Syria this year is four times greater than in Egypt.

So why are there observers present, who are they, what will they see, and what will they do about it? Let's work backwards.

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Syria, Egypt, Bahrain (and Beyond): Uncertainty of Death, Certainty of Conflict

Egyptian security forces raid Tahrir Square in Cairo this morning

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Monday's Syria, Egypt, Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: From Mohamed Bouazizi to the Tear-Gassing of Protests

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2313 GMT: Zaynab AlKhawaja sends a triumphant tweet to signify her release from prison:

Down with Hamad!

She then writes: "This morning I was in a prison cell, planning how I wud spend at least 1 yr in prison. I wud never have believed I wud be at home hugging and cuddling Jude tonight."

(23:22 GMT update) Zaynab continues: "These last few days were tough, but the only thing that broke me down was leaving political prisoner Fathiya [Abduali] behind. Fathiya is such a great woman, she is so sweet & wonderful. I cant believe she has been in prison this long, forgotten by everyone. [I] will tell you all more about Fathiya and about our arrest tomorrow, theres so much I want to share with u all. Infact so many times I wished I had my phone so that I could tweet from prison ;)."

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Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: The Catchphrase of "Many Dead"

2329 GMT: Two important visual pieces of evidence from Bahrain. The first, too graphic to post here, is a picture of the body of young Ali Al Qassab, who was reportedly killed earlier when he was run over. Activists claim he was run over by a police jeep, the government tells a different story.

The second piece of evidence is a video, reportedly taken today, that claims to show a police jeep accelerating towards a group of protesters who are near the side of the road. We've seen many videos like these in the past, and have already posted another video that shows a near-miss between a police vehicle and a pedestrian (see video at 1918):

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