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Entries in Yukiya Amano (23)

Monday
May142012

The Latest from Iran (14 May): Will a Nuclear Drawing Unsettle the Talks?

The drawing that "proves" Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons --- a "high-explosives containment chamber" at the Parchin military site


2011 GMT: All-Is-Well Alert. Iran's Statistical Center has said that in the Iranian year ending on 19 March, the jobless rate fell 1.2% to 12.3%.

The Center said that by March 2013, the government plans to reduce unemployment rate to 7%, investing around $200 billion to create one million jobs a year. It added that by 2015, the Government may send nearly 100,000 Iranians to work abroad.

1948 GMT: Nuclear Watch. We have expected back-channel discussions between the public resumption of talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, Germany, France, China, and Russia) in Istanbul in mid-April and the next meeting in Baghdad on 23 May. Laura Rozen offers confirmation:

The European Union’s Helga Schmid and Iran’s Ali Bagheri held meetings in Geneva May 6-7, a diplomatic source [said].

The deputy nuclear negotiators for the P5+1 and Iran respectively are due to hold a second meeting this week, but I’ve been asked to hold off reporting the date and location as negotiators are seeking to minimize publicity for the preparatory talks. Schmid and Bagheri are meeting to prepare the agenda for the next round of Iran nuclear talks due to be held May 23rd in Baghdad.

Western negotiators have made clear that when it comes to the exceedingly sensitive Iran nuclear negotiations process, they believe more can be accomplished in such quiet meetings.

But notable as well is the fact that no scuttlebutt from the first known face-to-face talks between Schmid and Bagheri since Istanbul has leaked from the Iranian side, as has occurred in many similar past cases. That may be a sign of Tehran’s efforts to maintain the positive atmosphere and a modicum of trust and goodwill that was established at the last round of talks in Istanbul last month.

The lead U.S. negotiator with the P5+1 group, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, did not participate in the Schmid-Bagheri discussions this past week, I was told. But American officials have made clear that she is open to do so — and that they have zero plans to advertise it if and when she does.

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Wednesday
Nov092011

The Latest from Iran (9 November): Nuclear Sideshow and Political Main Event

See also Iran Analysis: The IAEA Nuclear Report --- Everyone's a Winner!
Iran Special Analysis (Part 1): The Nuclear Report --- "May" Is Not "Definitely"
Iran Snap Analysis: The IAEA Nuclear Report --- Serious, But Not That Serious....
Iran Special: "Activities Relevant to the Development of a Nuclear Explosive Device" --- Text of IAEA Report
Iran Opinion: It's Not Nukes, It's Not The Plot....It's Human Rights
The Latest from Iran (8 November): That Ahmadinejad Speech....


2100 GMT: At the Movies. Reza Allamehzadeh has directed a new film, "The Iranian Taboo", about persecution of members of the Baha'i faith.

1730 GMT: Nuke Watch. Weakest reporting today on the IAEA report on Iran's nuclear programme?

Well, The New York Times tries hard to claim the award. The headline is straightforward, "Iran Escalates Anti-U.S. Rhetoric Over Nuclear Report", but the Times slaps on a psychological evaluation that "Iran’s leaders [are] clearly worried that the long-awaited report, released Tuesday by the International Atomic Energy Agency, could sway world opinion and deepen Iran’s isolation".

As for the report, there is absolutely no consideration of it apart from the dubious assurance that it is "buttressed by voluminous evidence not previously disclosed" --- most of the information has been put out in previous IAEA reports or in "leaks" from officials --- and that it "concluded that Iran had been secretly engaged in behaviors that suggested it was seeking to construct a nuclear weapon" and "also asserted that Iran may be researching ways to deliver a nuclear weapon via a missile warhead".

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Tuesday
Jan112011

The Latest from Iran (11 January): Remembering Hundreds of Political Prisoners

2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The son-in-law of detained journalist Emaduddin Baghi, Ali Maghami, has been released on bail.

Maghami was arrested last month. Baghi, detained in December 2009, was sentenced last autumn to seven years in prison.

Eight students of the Islamic Society of Arak University have reportedly been arrested.

2040 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. On Sunday we noted a speech by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, marking the anniversary of a January 1978 protest that helped spur the Islamic Republic. A correspondent commented Rafsanjani made his historical parallel to jab directly at Ahmadinejad aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai and indirectly at the Supreme Leader: "those who build their power on cobwebs". He pointedly referred to the situation then of "fire under the ashes", a possible reference to the state of protest today, and blamed those who practiced "lies and hypocrisy".

Well, the newspaper Kayhan is not impressed.

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