Mumbai Speculation of the Day

Apologies for going on about The Times of London and their defence correspondent, Michael Evans, but this latest effort at analysis is fully deserving of scorn:

Focus on Westerners suggests al-Qaeda was pulling strings

Shocking as Wednesday nights attacks on Bombay may have been, they were not unprecedented in their audacity or tactics and may have been masterminded by a familiar enemy.

A terrorist group with training camps in Pakistan and strong ties with al-Qaeda as well as a history of mounting attacks in India yesterday became the chief suspect behind the atrocities.

Intelligence and security officials were cautious about making early conclusions but admitted that the scale of the attacks and the planning pointed to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a terrorist group with a long record of violent extremism and previous connections to the Pakistani military's Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI).

Lashkar-e-Taiba is definitely not a group whose strings are pulled by Al Qa'eda. It has its own political agenda, elements of which may overlap with the agenda of Osama Bin Laden and Co. but most of which is driven by Pakistani and regional dimensions, in particular the dispute over Kashmir.

Michael Evans and associates are making the perfect storm of terrorism. Lashkar-e-Taiba is tied to both Al Qa'eda and Pakistani intelligence services. And "while planning for Wednesdays attack probably took place in Pakistan, the plotters probably used a local group in Bombay to execute it. Suspicion has fallen on the Indian Mujahidin as that partner."

So what's wrong with this? With the widest possible net to bring in all bad guys, inside and outside of Governments, this type of analysis has little chance of getting to grips with specific local and regional issues and complexities behind these attacks. Evans and Co. trumpet, "Some analysts suggest that Pakistani militant groups have forged closer ties with al-Qaeda because of the continuing fighting with Pakistans Army in the northern tribal areas."

Maybe, just maybe, instead of highlighting "al-Qaeda", the Times correspondents might dwell on the last part of that sentence --- "the continuing fighting with Pakistans Army in the northern tribal areas".