Bahrain Snap Analysis: The Regime's Propaganda Struggles

Bahrain's Minister of Justice on BBC's HardTalk

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In a series of messages last night via Twitter, hunger striker Abdulhadi Alkhawaja's wife Khadija Almousawi documented the pain of her husband while putting out his continued hope: "Despite all that happened to Hadi, he is as strong as a mountain, very thin but content and with his large smile. Again he said to us today he has never been happier."

Almousawi continued, referring to her detained daughter, activist Zainab Alkhawaja, as well as her husband: "No matter what they do, they cannot break my Hadi or my Zainab and this gives me strength to continue being hopeful."

The regime response? Saqer Al Khalifa, a leading figure in the social media campaign and former media attaché at the Bahraini Embassy in Washington, took the spectre of threat to a new level: Alkhawaja was comparable to the Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, the planner of the attacks of 11 September 2001.

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Bahrain 1st-Hand: The AlKhawaja Story - Wife/Mother Speaks Out

With Zainab Alkhawaja in jail awaiting prosecution and her father Abdulhadi, now 81 days into a hunger strike, cut off from contact with his relatives from Monday until today, this has been a particularly difficult week for the family.

The Bahraini regime has been keen to reassure the world that Abdulhadi is in good health, but their decision to deny access to his family, lawyer and even the Danish Ambassador led to much speculation and concern over his condition. Authorities postponed the review of Abdulhadi's case, now scheduled to take place on 30 April. When the family was finally allowed to see him, they found that Abdulhadi was being drugged and force-fed with an energy drink, categorically against his wishes.

Today, Abdulhadi's wife Khadija al-Musawi wrote after she saw him and also spoke with her daughter Zainab:

#Bahrain Today it was a happy/sad day. Happy cus i saw my daughter Zainab and my dear husband Hadi.

— Khadija Almousawi (@tublani2010) April 29, 2012

#Bahrain and sad cus i had to listen to Zainab telling me how she was beaten and almost suffocated by the police and then she is accused.

— Khadija Almousawi (@tublani2010) April 29, 2012

#Bahrain Sad cus I had to listen to dear Hadi telling me how he was drugged, restrained, force fed and kept incommunicado for five days.

— Khadija Almousawi (@tublani2010) April 29, 2012

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Iran Feature: Tehran Sees US Nuke Proposal as "Good Start"? (Mostaghim)

On Friday, we noted a report in the Los Angeles Times, fed by unnamed US officials, which pointed to an American offer on Iran's uranium enrichment. We asked, "Will Iran, with its new-found capability to enrich to 20%, be willing to pull back to 5%? And if so, what will it seek in return from the US and European powers?"

Now an answer: "Iranian officials expressed skepticism Saturday about possible Obama administration support for allowing the country to continue enriching some uranium but said it could be a good start for further negotiations on its disputed nuclear program."

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The Latest from Iran (29 April): The Ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guards

See also Iran Feature: Tehran Sees US Nuke Proposal as "Good Start"?
The Latest from Iran (28 April): Nuclear Step Forward, Nuclear Step Back

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1947 GMT: Currency Watch. The head of the Central Bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, has admitted that the effort to establish a single currency rate --- sought earlier this year after the Iranian Rial fell 50% in value --- has failed. He said there was "no possibility" to consolidate the rate against the US dollar. "Floating" (open-market) rates would continue, although there would be subsidised rates for importers and students.

1940 GMT: Supreme Leader Watch. Ayatollah Khamenei has declared today that those who get huge loans are equal to "traitors and looters of national income" and should be confronted. He continued, "The right way to promote national production is confronting disturbers and looters of national wealth."

An Iranian correspondent for EA ponders, "So when will the Supreme Leader confront those who have taken national wealth, say, his son Mojtaba, some senior clerics, and the Revolutionary Guards?"

The correspondent continues, "This is a clear order to the judiciary to sentence main agents of [the $2.6 billion] bank fraud --- with usual exceptions of course."

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Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Two-Step of Protest and Detention

Bahraini police charge a protest march in Manama on Saturday

See also Iraq Analysis: Kurdistan's Contest with Prime Minister al-Maliki Heats Up
Egypt Feature: Cairo Cuts Gas Supplies to Israel --- Will the Power Play Backfire?
Saturday's Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Two-Step of Protest and Detention

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1912 GMT: Egypt. In a sign of more tension between political factions, including the Muslim Brotherhood, and the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the Egyptian Parliament suspended the sessions of its lower house on Sunday for a week to protest SCAF's refusal to dissolve the Cabinet.

The legislature’s speaker, Saad el-Katatni of the Muslim Brotherhood, announced the decision on Sunday after lawmakers spoke in a televised session against the Government of Prime Minister Kamal El Ganzouri.

A "senior Government source" said the dismissal of the Cabinet was unnecessary as it will only last until 30 June. The source said El Ganzouri met on Saturday with Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the head of SCAF, to discuss the crisis. although The source said Tantawi did not mention any dismissal or reshuffle to Ganzouri.

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Iraq Analysis: Kurdistan's Contest with Prime Minister al-Maliki Heats Up (Van Wilgenburg)

Nuri al-Maliki and Massoud BarzaniIn recent weeks, tensions between Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Massoud Barzani have been elevated in the media. This is not a just a battle of rhetoric, however --- there are serious issues over oil, disputed territory, the fugitive Iraqi Vice President Tariq Hashimi, and weapons. Al-Maliki's MPs have accused Barzani of trying to weaken the Iraqi army and seeking to take over Kirkuk by armed force.

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Egypt Feature: Cairo Cuts Gas Supplies to Israel --- Will the Power Play Backfire? (Mills)

Whatever the reason for this decision, it has squandered one of the Egyptian energy industry's most precious resources. The one thing more important for gas customers than attractive prices is security. As Algeria discovered in the early 1980s and Russia and Ukraine in 2009, once a gas supplier gains a reputation for unreliability, it is very hard to shake off. With the pipeline bombings and now this contractual action, Egypt has squandered a lot of hard-won trust.

This incident marks the definitive end of a very successful period for Egypt's gas industry.

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The Latest from Iran (28 April): Nuclear Step Forward, Nuclear Step Back

1513 GMT: War Watch. There has been quite a flutter on the Internet over comments by the former head of Israel's internal intelligence agency Shin Bet, Yuval Diskin, critising Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak over postures and policies on Iran based on "messianic feelings". Diskin said he would not trust the Israeli leaders in the event of a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear sites.

The comments should be seen in the context of a wave of recent comments by former and current Israeli military and intelligence leaders, including former head of the Mossad, Israel's foreign intelligence service, Meir Dagan and current Chief of General Staff Benny Gantz, playing down talk of an imminent Iranian nuclear weapons capability and warning against the consequences of an Israeli attack (see the discussion in Comments).

Interpretation? Seeing this as a possible contest and even rift between the military and the political leadership, I would note the significant influence of the ties between the Israeli and the US military and inteligence communities. Washington's military commanders have not only been vocal this spring in their caution against an assault; they have given signals to Israeli counterparts that they would like to see the same out of West Jerusalem.

Video from The Guardian:

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Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The "Terrorists" on the Streets

Friday's protest rally in Bahrain

See also Palestine Feature: Communications Minister Resigns Over Blocking of Websites
Jordan Feature: Troubled "Reform" as Prime Minister Resigns
Friday's Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Just Another Protest Friday?
Friday's Syria Wired: The Latest from Social Media and EA's Readers

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2235 GMT: We're taking a Saturday night break --- back at 0600 GMT on Sunday with the latest news from North Africa and the Middle East.

1718 GMT: Iraq. A Bahraini activist is reporting that human rights defender Said Yousif and former MP Sayed Hadi Al Mosawi, detained earlier today during a march in Manama (see 1525 and 1607 GMT), have been released.

1700 GMT: Iraq. Wladimir van Wilgenburg passes on reports of closed-door meetings today in Erbil in Kurdistan between Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani, Iraqiyya Party leader Iyad Allawi, and leading Shia politician Moqtada al-Sadr to discuss political tension over the national government.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, embroiled in a number of disputes with other prominent politicians, was not present.

Van Wilgenburg evaluates that the session indicates that Talabani's opinion might not be that different from that of Barzani, despite earlier reports of points of disagreement. In contrast, Sadr met with al-Maliki in Iran before heading to Kurdistan, and a Sadrist spokesperson said they would not discuss withdrawing confidence from the Prime Minister.

Meanwhile, Iraqiyya list member Salih al-Mutlaq, despite his opposition to al-Maliki, criticized Barzani's call for a referendum in September for Kurdish independence.

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Palestine Feature: Communications Minister Resigns Over Blocking of Websites (BBC)

Mahmoud AbbasThe communications minister of the Palestinian Authority has resigned, claiming it was trying to silence its critics and curb freedom of expression.

Mashour Abu Daqa said senior officials had ordered several opposition websites to be blocked over the past six months.

He said the moves were bad for the image of the PA in the modern world.

Security forces have also recently arrested four journalists and an activist who had criticised President Mahmoud Abbas and other officials.

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